Energy balance model of mass balance and its sensitivity to meteorological variability on Urumqi River Glacier No.1 in the Chinese Tien Shan.

Energy exchanges between atmosphere and glacier surface control the net energy available for snow and ice melt. Based on the meteorological records in Urumqi River Glacier No.1 (URGN1) in the Chinese Tien Shan during the period of 2012-2015, an energy-mass balance model was run to assess the sensitivity of glacier mass balance to air temperature (T), precipitation (P), incoming shortwave radiation (Sin), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (u) in the URGN1, respectively. The results showed that the glacier melting was mainly controlled by the net shortwave radiation. The glacier mass balance was very sensitivity to albedo for snow and the time scale determining how long the snow albedo approaches the albedo for firn after a snowfall. The net annual mass balance of URGN1 was decreased by 0.44 m w.e. when increased by 1 K in air temperature, while it was increased 0.30 m w.e. when decreased by 1 K. The net total mass balance increased by 0.55 m w.e. when increased precipitation by 10%, while it was decreased by 0.61 m w.e. when decreased precipitation by 10%. We also found that the change in glacier mass balance was non-linear when increased or decreased input condition of climate change. The sensitivity of mass balance to increase in Sin, u, and RH were at -0.015 m w.e.%-1, -0.020 m w.e.%-1, and -0.018 m w.e.%-1, respectively, while they were at 0.012 m w.e.%-1, 0.027 m w.e.%-1, and 0.017 m w.e.%-1 when decreasing in those conditions, respectively. In addition, the simulations of coupled perturbation for temperature and precipitation indicated that the precipitation needed to increase by 23% could justly compensate to the additional mass loss due to increase by 1 K in air temperature. We also found that the sensitivities of glacier mass balance in response to climate change were different in different mountain ranges, which were mainly resulted from the discrepancies in the ratio of snowfall to precipitation during the ablation season, the amount of melt energy during the ablation season, and precipitation seasonality in the different local regions.

Comparison of baseline period choices for separating climate and land use/land cover change impacts on watershed hydrology using distributed hydrological models.

Separating impacts of land use/land cover change (LUCC) and climate change on hydrology is essential for watershed planning and management. This is typically done via hydrological modelling in combination with the one-factor-at-a-time analysis. However, it remains unclear how large the differences in isolated hydrological impacts would be when selecting different baseline periods. In this study, we compared baseline period choices for separating climate change and LUCC impacts on watershed hydrology in a typical inland river basin in northwest China, i.e. the Upper Heihe River Basin, with two hydrological models, i.e., Soil and Water Assessment Tool and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. In the real LUCC case which considers the actual land use changes between 2000 and 2011, the absolute contributions of LUCC to the variations in water yield and ET are slight and almost have the same magnitude for different baseline period choices, whereas those of climate change are substantial and with varying magnitudes. Compared with the absolute contributions, the relative contributions of climate change and LUCC seem less sensitive to the choices of baseline periods. In the hypothetical LUCC case which assumes an extreme land use conversion (i.e., grassland converts to farmland completely), both climate change and LUCC contribute to the changes in water yield and ET significantly. Moreover, both the absolute and relative contributions diverge noticeably between various baseline period choices. The influences of baseline period choices on the partitioning of hydrological impacts diverge significantly between different hydrological models. This study highlights that baseline period choice is an important source of uncertainty when disentangling the impacts of LUCC and climate change on hydrology. Some useful recommendations regarding baseline period selection have been proposed, which may help to reduce the uncertainties associated with baseline period choices.

Vegetation Changes in the Permafrost Regions of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1982-2012: Different Responses Related to Geographical Locations and Vegetation Types in High-Altitude Areas.

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) contains the largest permafrost area in a high-altitude region in the world, and the unique hydrothermal environments of the active layers in this region have an important impact on vegetation growth. Geographical locations present different climatic conditions, and in combination with the permafrost environments, these conditions comprehensively affect the local vegetation activity. Therefore, the responses of vegetation to climate change in the permafrost region of the QTP may be varied differently by geographical location and vegetation condition. In this study, using the latest Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) product based on turning points (TPs), which were calculated using a piecewise linear model, 9 areas within the permafrost region of the QTP were selected to investigate the effect of geographical location and vegetation type on vegetation growth from 1982 to 2012. The following 4 vegetation types were observed in the 9 selected study areas: alpine swamp meadow, alpine meadow, alpine steppe and alpine desert. The research results show that, in these study areas, TPs mainly appeared in 2000 and 2001, and almost 55.1% and 35.0% of the TPs were located in 2000 and 2001. The global standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and 7 meteorological variables were selected to analyze their correlations with NDVI. We found that the main correlative variables to vegetation productivity in study areas from 1982 to 2012 were precipitation, surface downward long-wave radiation and temperature. Furthermore, NDVI changes exhibited by different vegetation types within the same study area followed similar trends. The results show that regional effects rather than vegetation type had a larger impact on changes in vegetation growth in the permafrost regions of the QTP, indicating that climatic factors had a larger impact in the permafrost regions than the environmental factors (including permafrost) related to the underlying surface conditions.

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995-2014) and near future (2015-2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses.

[Spatial and Temporal Variations in Spectrum-Derived Vegetation Growth Trend in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2014].

Recently considerable researches have focused on monitoring vegetation changes because of its important role in regula- ting the terrestrial carbon cycle and the climate system. There were the largest areas with high-altitudes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), which is often referred to as the third pole of the world. And vegetation in this region is significantly sensitive to the global warming. Meanwhile NDVI dataset was one of the most useful tools to monitor the vegetation activity with high spatial and temporal resolution, which is a normalized transform of the near-infrared radiation (NIR) to red reflectance ratio. Therefore, an extended GIMMS NDVI dataset from 1982-2006 to 1982-2014 was presented using a unary linear regression by MODIS dataset from 2000 to 2014 in QTP. Compared with previous researches, the accuracy of the extended NDVI dataset was improved again with consideration the residuals derived from scale transformation. So the model of extend NDVI dataset could be a new method to integrate different NDVI products. With the extended NDVI dataset, we found that in growing season there was a statistically significant increase (0.000 4 yr⁻¹, r² = 0.585 9, p < 0.001) in QTP from 1982 to 2014. During the study pe- riod, the trends of NDVI were significantly increased in spring (0.000 5 yr⁻¹, r² = 0.295 4, p = 0.001), summer (0.000 3 yr⁻¹, r² = 0.105 3, p = 0.065) and autumn respectively (0.000 6 yr⁻¹, r² = 0.436 7, p < 0.001). Due to the increased vegeta- tion activity in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1982 to 2014, the magnitude of carbon sink was accumulated in this region also at this same period. Then the data of temperature and precipitation was used to explore the reason of vegetation changed. Although the trends of them are both increased, the correlation between NDVI and temperature is higher than precipitation in vegetation grow- ing season, spring, summer and autumn. Furthermore, there is significant spatial heterogeneity of the changing trends for ND- VI, temperature and precipitation at Qinghai-Tibet Plateau scale.

Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.