Detecting changes in population trends in infection surveillance using community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence as an exemplar.

Detecting and quantifying changes in growth rates of infectious diseases is vital to informing public health strategy and can inform policymakers' rationale for implementing or continuing interventions aimed at reducing impact. Substantial changes in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence with emergence of variants provides opportunity to investigate different methods to do this. We included PCR results from all participants in the UK's COVID-19 Infection Survey between August 2020-June 2022. Change-points for growth rates were identified using iterative sequential regression (ISR) and second derivatives of generalised additive models (GAMs). Consistency between methods and timeliness of detection were compared. Of 8,799,079 visits, 147,278 (1.7%) were PCR-positive. Change-points associated with emergence of major variants were estimated to occur a median 4 days earlier (IQR 0-8) in GAMs versus ISR. When estimating recent change-points using successive data periods, four change-points (4/96) identified by GAMs were not found when adding later data or by ISR. Change-points were detected 3-5 weeks after they occurred in both methods but could be detected earlier within specific subgroups. Change-points in growth rates of SARS-CoV-2 can be detected in near real-time using ISR and second derivatives of GAMs. To increase certainty about changes in epidemic trajectories both methods could be run in parallel.

SARS-CoV-2, influenza A/B and respiratory syncytial virus positivity and association with influenza-like illness and self-reported symptoms, over the 2022/23 winter season in the UK: a longitudinal surveillance cohort.

BACKGROUND: Syndromic surveillance often relies on patients presenting to healthcare. Community cohorts, although more challenging to recruit, could provide additional population-wide insights, particularly with SARS-CoV-2 co-circulating with other respiratory viruses. METHODS: We estimated the positivity and incidence of SARS-CoV-2, influenza A/B, and RSV, and trends in self-reported symptoms including influenza-like illness (ILI), over the 2022/23 winter season in a broadly representative UK community cohort (COVID-19 Infection Survey), using negative-binomial generalised additive models. We estimated associations between test positivity and each of the symptoms and influenza vaccination, using adjusted logistic and multinomial models. RESULTS: Swabs taken at 32,937/1,352,979 (2.4%) assessments tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, 181/14,939 (1.2%) for RSV and 130/14,939 (0.9%) for influenza A/B, varying by age over time. Positivity and incidence peaks were earliest for RSV, then influenza A/B, then SARS-CoV-2, and were highest for RSV in the youngest and for SARS-CoV-2 in the oldest age groups. Many test positives did not report key symptoms: middle-aged participants were generally more symptomatic than older or younger participants, but still, only ~ 25% reported ILI-WHO and ~ 60% ILI-ECDC. Most symptomatic participants did not test positive for any of the three viruses. Influenza A/B-positivity was lower in participants reporting influenza vaccination in the current and previous seasons (odds ratio = 0.55 (95% CI 0.32, 0.95)) versus neither season. CONCLUSIONS: Symptom profiles varied little by aetiology, making distinguishing SARS-CoV-2, influenza and RSV using symptoms challenging. Most symptoms were not explained by these viruses, indicating the importance of other pathogens in syndromic surveillance. Influenza vaccination was associated with lower rates of community influenza test positivity.

Omicron-associated changes in SARS-CoV-2 symptoms in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has been replaced by the highly transmissible Omicron BA.1 variant, and subsequently by Omicron BA.2. It is important to understand how these changes in dominant variants affect reported symptoms, while also accounting for symptoms arising from other co-circulating respiratory viruses. METHODS: In a nationally representative UK community study, the COVID-19 Infection Survey, we investigated symptoms in PCR-positive infection episodes vs. PCR-negative study visits over calendar time, by age and vaccination status, comparing periods when the Delta, Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants were dominant. RESULTS: Between October-2020 and April-2022, 120,995 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive episodes occurred in 115,886 participants, with 70,683 (58%) reporting symptoms. The comparator comprised 4,766,366 PCR-negative study visits (483,894 participants); 203,422 (4%) reporting symptoms. Symptom reporting in PCR-positives varied over time, with a marked reduction in loss of taste/smell as Omicron BA.1 dominated, maintained with BA.2 (44%/45% 17 October 2021, 16%/13% 2 January 2022, 15%/12% 27 March 2022). Cough, fever, shortness of breath, myalgia, fatigue/weakness and headache also decreased after Omicron BA.1 dominated, but sore throat increased, the latter to a greater degree than concurrent increases in PCR-negatives. Fatigue/weakness increased again after BA.2 dominated, although to a similar degree to concurrent increases in PCR-negatives. Symptoms were consistently more common in adults aged 18-65 years than in children or older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in sore throat (also common in the general community), and a marked reduction in loss of taste/smell, make Omicron harder to detect with symptom-based testing algorithms, with implications for institutional and national testing policies.

Symptoms and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Positivity in the General Population in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: "Classic" symptoms (cough, fever, loss of taste/smell) prompt severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing in the United Kingdom. Studies have assessed the ability of different symptoms to identify infection, but few have compared symptoms over time (reflecting variants) and by vaccination status. METHODS: Using the COVID-19 Infection Survey, sampling households across the United Kingdom, we compared symptoms in PCR-positives vs PCR-negatives, evaluating sensitivity of combinations of 12 symptoms (percentage symptomatic PCR-positives reporting specific symptoms) and tests per case (TPC) (PCR-positives or PCR-negatives reporting specific symptoms/ PCR-positives reporting specific symptoms). RESULTS: Between April 2020 and August 2021, 27 869 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive episodes occurred in 27 692 participants (median 42 years), of whom 13 427 (48%) self-reported symptoms ("symptomatic PCR-positives"). The comparator comprised 3 806 692 test-negative visits (457 215 participants); 130 612 (3%) self-reported symptoms ("symptomatic PCR-negatives"). Symptom reporting in PCR-positives varied by age, sex, and ethnicity, and over time, reflecting changes in prevalence of viral variants, incidental changes (eg, seasonal pathogens (with sore throat increasing in PCR-positives and PCR-negatives from April 2021), schools reopening) and vaccination rollout. After May 2021 when Delta emerged, headache and fever substantially increased in PCR-positives, but not PCR-negatives. Sensitivity of symptom-based detection increased from 74% using "classic" symptoms, to 81% adding fatigue/weakness, and 90% including all 8 additional symptoms. However, this increased TPC from 4.6 to 5.3 to 8.7. CONCLUSIONS: Expanded symptom combinations may provide modest benefits for sensitivity of PCR-based case detection, but this will vary between settings and over time, and increases tests/case. Large-scale changes to targeted PCR-testing approaches require careful evaluation given substantial resource and infrastructure implications.

Monitoring populations at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community using population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly evolving, with emerging variants and fluctuating control policies. Real-time population screening and identification of groups in whom positivity is highest could help monitor spread and inform public health messaging and strategy. METHODS: To develop a real-time screening process, we included results from nose and throat swabs and questionnaires taken 19 July 2020-17 July 2021 in the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey. Fortnightly, associations between SARS-CoV-2 positivity and 60 demographic and behavioural characteristics were estimated using logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders, considering multiple testing, collinearity, and reverse causality. FINDINGS: Of 4,091,537 RT-PCR results from 482,677 individuals, 29,903 (0·73%) were positive. As positivity rose September-November 2020, rates were independently higher in younger ages, and those living in Northern England, major urban conurbations, more deprived areas, and larger households. Rates were also higher in those returning from abroad, and working in healthcare or outside of home. When positivity peaked December 2020-January 2021 (Alpha), high positivity shifted to southern geographical regions. With national vaccine roll-out from December 2020, positivity reduced in vaccinated individuals. Associations attenuated as rates decreased between February-May 2021. Rising positivity rates in June-July 2021 (Delta) were independently higher in younger, male, and unvaccinated groups. Few factors were consistently associated with positivity. 25/45 (56%) confirmed associations would have been detected later using 28-day rather than 14-day periods. INTERPRETATION: Population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance can be a valuable tool in identifying the varying characteristics driving current SARS-CoV-2 positivity, allowing monitoring to inform public health policy. FUNDING: Department of Health and Social Care (UK), Welsh Government, Department of Health (on behalf of the Northern Ireland Government), Scottish Government, National Institute for Health Research.

Effect of Delta variant on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK.

The effectiveness of the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccines against new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections requires continuous re-evaluation, given the increasingly dominant B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. In this study, we investigated the effectiveness of these vaccines in a large, community-based survey of randomly selected households across the United Kingdom. We found that the effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 against infections (new polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive cases) with symptoms or high viral burden is reduced with the B.1.617.2 variant (absolute difference of 10-13% for BNT162b2 and 16% for ChAdOx1) compared to the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant. The effectiveness of two doses remains at least as great as protection afforded by prior natural infection. The dynamics of immunity after second doses differed significantly between BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1, with greater initial effectiveness against new PCR-positive cases but faster declines in protection against high viral burden and symptomatic infection with BNT162b2. There was no evidence that effectiveness varied by dosing interval, but protection was higher in vaccinated individuals after a prior infection and in younger adults. With B.1.617.2, infections occurring after two vaccinations had similar peak viral burden as those in unvaccinated individuals. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination still reduces new infections, but effectiveness and attenuation of peak viral burden are reduced with B.1.617.2.

Ct threshold values, a proxy for viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases, demonstrate wide variation across populations and over time.

Background: Information on SARS-CoV-2 in representative community surveillance is limited, particularly cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load). Methods: We included all positive nose and throat swabs 26 April 2020 to 13 March 2021 from the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey, tested by RT-PCR for the N, S, and ORF1ab genes. We investigated predictors of median Ct value using quantile regression. Results: Of 3,312,159 nose and throat swabs, 27,902 (0.83%) were RT-PCR-positive, 10,317 (37%), 11,012 (40%), and 6550 (23%) for 3, 2, or 1 of the N, S, and ORF1ab genes, respectively, with median Ct = 29.2 (~215 copies/ml; IQR Ct = 21.9-32.8, 14-56,400 copies/ml). Independent predictors of lower Cts (i.e. higher viral load) included self-reported symptoms and more genes detected, with at most small effects of sex, ethnicity, and age. Single-gene positives almost invariably had Ct > 30, but Cts varied widely in triple-gene positives, including without symptoms. Population-level Cts changed over time, with declining Ct preceding increasing SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Of 6189 participants with IgG S-antibody tests post-first RT-PCR-positive, 4808 (78%) were ever antibody-positive; Cts were significantly higher in those remaining antibody negative. Conclusions: Marked variation in community SARS-CoV-2 Ct values suggests that they could be a useful epidemiological early-warning indicator. Funding: Department of Health and Social Care, National Institutes of Health Research, Huo Family Foundation, Medical Research Council UK; Wellcome Trust.

Impact of vaccination on new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United Kingdom.

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in preventing new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in the general community is still unclear. Here, we used the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey-a large community-based survey of individuals living in randomly selected private households across the United Kingdom-to assess the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca; ChAdOx1) vaccines against any new SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive tests, split according to self-reported symptoms, cycle threshold value (<30 versus ≥30; as a surrogate for viral load) and gene positivity pattern (compatible with B.1.1.7 or not). Using 1,945,071 real-time PCR results from nose and throat swabs taken from 383,812 participants between 1 December 2020 and 8 May 2021, we found that vaccination with the ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 vaccines already reduced SARS-CoV-2 infections ≥21 d after the first dose (61% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 54-68%) versus 66% (95% CI = 60-71%), respectively), with greater reductions observed after a second dose (79% (95% CI = 65-88%) versus 80% (95% CI = 73-85%), respectively). The largest reductions were observed for symptomatic infections and/or infections with a higher viral burden. Overall, COVID-19 vaccination reduced the number of new SARS-CoV-2 infections, with the largest benefit received after two vaccinations and against symptomatic and high viral burden infections, and with no evidence of a difference between the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccines.

Play-based interventions to support social and communication development in autistic children aged 2-8 years: A scoping review.

Background and aims: Play is used by practitioners from across disciplinary backgrounds as a natural and enjoyable context for providing intervention and support in early childhood. In the case of autism interventions, many therapies are based on the association between social play and the development of social skills, language development, and communication skills, as these are often particular areas of challenge for autistic children. However, play is a wide-ranging concept and the extant literature on play-based interventions is large and heterogeneous. This means it is challenging for practitioners and families to navigate the evidence base and make choices about differing intervention strategies. This review aims to provide a comprehensive map of the research on this topic and to develop a conceptual framework to inform clinical decision-making. Methods: An initial stakeholder consultation confirmed the relevance of the topic to practitioners and autistic people. A scoping review methodology (preregistered) was used to identify relevant literature. We systematically searched seven databases to find peer-reviewed primary intervention studies of play-based approaches targeting language, social and communication outcomes for autistic children aged 2-8 years. We then summarised the literature using narrative synthesis and Evidence Gap Maps (EGMs). The literature was summarised according to a range of characteristics, including study design, population characteristics, agent of intervention and outcomes measured, among others. These summaries were then used to develop a framework for some key considerations for practitioners appraising play-based approaches. Results: 388 studies met inclusion criteria. Approximately 21% of studies were RCTs, and over 50% had ≤10 participants. Over 45% of studies reported multiple relevant outcomes, with social play skills being the most common single intervention target. Girls and minority background groups are under-represented. A range of intervention types were identified, and some high-level categorisations are proposed.Main contribution: On the basis of the evidence synthesis we suggest important dimensions for appraisal of play-based interventions, including the role of play within an intervention (as a context, a key developmental mechanism, or a component of a larger approach), the underpinning philosophy (e.g. behaviourist or developmental), and the role of the practitioner (providing parent feedback, 1:1 intervention, group facilitation). Conclusions: The wide range of approaches uncovered by this review is a testament to the wonderful diversity inherent to both play and autism. However, research could usefully focus on consolidating the evidence base for existing approaches, rather than aiming for further diversification. Implications: The conceptual framework proposed in this review can help practitioners appraise the literature and aid their advice to families when making shared intervention decisions.

Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England from April to November, 2020: results from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey.

BACKGROUND: Decisions about the continued need for control measures to contain the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) rely on accurate and up-to-date information about the number of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and risk factors for testing positive. Existing surveillance systems are generally not based on population samples and are not longitudinal in design. METHODS: Samples were collected from individuals aged 2 years and older living in private households in England that were randomly selected from address lists and previous Office for National Statistics surveys in repeated cross-sectional household surveys with additional serial sampling and longitudinal follow-up. Participants completed a questionnaire and did nose and throat self-swabs. The percentage of individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA was estimated over time by use of dynamic multilevel regression and poststratification, to account for potential residual non-representativeness. Potential changes in risk factors for testing positive over time were also assessed. The study is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN21086382. FINDINGS: Between April 26 and Nov 1, 2020, results were available from 1 191 170 samples from 280 327 individuals; 5231 samples were positive overall, from 3923 individuals. The percentage of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 changed substantially over time, with an initial decrease between April 26 and June 28, 2020, from 0·40% (95% credible interval 0·29-0·54) to 0·06% (0·04-0·07), followed by low levels during July and August, 2020, before substantial increases at the end of August, 2020, with percentages testing positive above 1% from the end of October, 2020. Having a patient-facing role and working outside your home were important risk factors for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 at the end of the first wave (April 26 to June 28, 2020), but not in the second wave (from the end of August to Nov 1, 2020). Age (young adults, particularly those aged 17-24 years) was an important initial driver of increased positivity rates in the second wave. For example, the estimated percentage of individuals testing positive was more than six times higher in those aged 17-24 years than in those aged 70 years or older at the end of September, 2020. A substantial proportion of infections were in individuals not reporting symptoms around their positive test (45-68%, dependent on calendar time. INTERPRETATION: Important risk factors for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 varied substantially between the part of the first wave that was captured by the study (April to June, 2020) and the first part of the second wave of increased positivity rates (end of August to Nov 1, 2020), and a substantial proportion of infections were in individuals not reporting symptoms, indicating that continued monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 in the community will be important for managing the COVID-19 pandemic moving forwards. FUNDING: Department of Health and Social Care.

Combining Charlson and Elixhauser scores with varying lookback predicated mortality better than using individual scores.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate variation in the presence of secondary diagnosis codes in Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity scores and assess whether including a 1-year lookback period improved prognostic adjustment by these scores individually, and combined, for 30-day mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We analyzed inpatient admissions from January 1, 2007 to May 18, 2018 in Oxfordshire, UK. Comorbidity scores were calculated using secondary diagnostic codes in the diagnostic-dominant episode, and primary and secondary codes from the year before. Associations between scores and 30-day mortality were investigated using Cox models with natural cubic splines for nonlinearity, assessing fit using Akaike Information Criteria. RESULTS: The 1-year lookback improved model fit for Charlson and Elixhauser scores vs. using diagnostic-dominant methods. Including both, and allowing nonlinearity, improved model fit further. The diagnosis-dominant Charlson score and Elixhauser score using a 1-year lookback, and their interaction, provided the best comorbidity adjustment (reduction in AIC: 761 from best single score model). CONCLUSION: The Charlson and Elixhauser score calculated using primary and secondary diagnostic codes from 1-year lookback with secondary diagnostic codes from the current episode improved individual predictive ability. Ideally, comorbidities should be adjusted for using both the Charlson (diagnostic-dominant) and Elixhauser (1-year lookback) scores, incorporating nonlinearity and interactions for optimal confounding control.

Managing chronic oedema and venous disease with made-to-order garments.

Selecting the most appropriate compression garments is vital in the long-term management of venous disease and chronic oedema. The range of styles has improved greatly over the years and many garments are available on the UK Drug Tariff. Practitioners now have a wide range of options to choose from including the type of fabric, colour, compression class, and style of garment. These options increase the pratitioner's ability to select the most suitable garments and combine clinical and aesthetic needs, with the ultimate aim of improving compliance. The focus of this article is to highlight the aims and qualities of the various types of compression garments available, discuss the rationale for prescribing choice, and describe the benefits of Haddenham's Veni made-to-order compression leg garments in the management of chronic oedema and venous disease. Three case studies will demonstrate the effectiveness of the Veni made-to-order range of compression garments.

Effective mentoring in the community setting.

As nurses, we are expected to demonstrate the linking of theory to practice, undertake continuous assessment and to facilitate reflective practice. Literature suggests that the majority of mentors feel unprepared for the role and lack confidence in their ability to support students (Duffy, 2004). The main challenges facing mentors are understanding the needs of each individual and adapting and developing strategies in order to support them effectively. Whilst there is a major cognitive / intellectual component to mentorship both student and mentor often experience difficulties with these aspects of their roles (Moseley and Davies, 2008). By recognizing the need to gain insight into the students individual needs mentors will be able to identify any concerns and develop action plans in order to alleviate them.

Positive provider interventions for enhancing influenza vaccination uptake among Pacific peoples in New Zealand.

Despite having reported influenza vaccination rates similar to New Zealand Europeans, Pacific peoples have significantly higher rates of infection, hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission than any other group in New Zealand. Much of this may be due to the presence of comorbidities. However, it is in the interest of Pacific health to promote vaccination widely within this group. Little has been written about what prevents and encourages positive vaccination amongst Pacific peoples. This article reviews current themes about vaccination practices amongst ethnic minorities with a view to identifying positive vaccination strategies for Pacific peoples living in New Zealand.

Women's satisfaction with their breast prosthesis: what determines a quality prosthesis?

The aim of this study is to determine what factors constitute a quality prosthesis and ascertain which factors affect prosthesis satisfaction. Sixty-four women who received full funding for their prosthesis and 38 women who received their hospital's usual funding were recruited. Women rated the information provided about breast prostheses very highly, with 85% reporting that it was "very good" or "excellent." Satisfaction was significantly associated with how well the prosthesis fit (1 week, p = .001; 3 months, p = .01), level of comfort (3 months, p=.005), and appearance of the prosthesis when worn (6 months, p = .001). Quality was significantly associated with how well it fit (1 week, p = .001; 3 months, p = .001), how natural it felt (1 week, p = .001; 6 months, p = .01), the weight of the prosthesis (3 months, p = .003), and appearance when worn (6 months, p = .03). The results will be used to improve women's access to a quality prosthesis.

Access to breast prostheses via a government-funded service in Victoria, Australia. Experience of women and service providers.

For many women, the only alternative to breast reconstruction following a mastectomy is to use external prostheses, which need replacing regularly at a cost of up to $395 per prosthesis. Commonwealth and state governments across Australia have responded to this need by providing subsidies to assist in the purchase of breast prostheses. However, current arrangements have been highly variable and sometimes difficult to access. As part of a larger review of breast prosthesis services in Victoria, Australia, the aim of this research was to evaluate client satisfaction among Victorian women who accessed funds through the State Government's Aids and Equipment Program, compare the responses of the program service providers with the experiences of clients accessing funding, and identify opportunities to improve service provision.

Celebrating practice development.

Nursing older people is a complex and skilled area of healthcare practice that demands high levels of expertise and commitment. As healthcare practitioners we work in a shifting and uncertain practice world, sometimes with limited support and few resources. Nonetheless, the older people and their supporters with whom we work deserve the best that is possible. This means nurses engaging in practice development - a continuous process of improvement to advance and expand knowledge, experience and skills, thereby transforming organisational cultures and systems ( Higgs and Titchen 2001 ).