GPT-4 performance on querying scientific publications: reproducibility, accuracy, and impact of an instruction sheet.

BACKGROUND: Large language models (LLMs) that can efficiently screen and identify studies meeting specific criteria would streamline literature reviews. Additionally, those capable of extracting data from publications would enhance knowledge discovery by reducing the burden on human reviewers. METHODS: We created an automated pipeline utilizing OpenAI GPT-4 32 K API version "2023-05-15" to evaluate the accuracy of the LLM GPT-4 responses to queries about published papers on HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) with and without an instruction sheet. The instruction sheet contained specialized knowledge designed to assist a person trying to answer questions about an HIVDR paper. We designed 60 questions pertaining to HIVDR and created markdown versions of 60 published HIVDR papers in PubMed. We presented the 60 papers to GPT-4 in four configurations: (1) all 60 questions simultaneously; (2) all 60 questions simultaneously with the instruction sheet; (3) each of the 60 questions individually; and (4) each of the 60 questions individually with the instruction sheet. RESULTS: GPT-4 achieved a mean accuracy of 86.9% - 24.0% higher than when the answers to papers were permuted. The overall recall and precision were 72.5% and 87.4%, respectively. The standard deviation of three replicates for the 60 questions ranged from 0 to 5.3% with a median of 1.2%. The instruction sheet did not significantly increase GPT-4's accuracy, recall, or precision. GPT-4 was more likely to provide false positive answers when the 60 questions were submitted individually compared to when they were submitted together. CONCLUSIONS: GPT-4 reproducibly answered 3600 questions about 60 papers on HIVDR with moderately high accuracy, recall, and precision. The instruction sheet's failure to improve these metrics suggests that more sophisticated approaches are necessary. Either enhanced prompt engineering or finetuning an open-source model could further improve an LLM's ability to answer questions about highly specialized HIVDR papers.

Prevalence of Emergent Dolutegravir Resistance Mutations in People Living with HIV: A Rapid Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: Dolutegravir (DTG) is a cornerstone of global antiretroviral (ARV) therapy (ART) due to its high efficacy and favorable tolerability. However, limited data exist regarding the risk of emergent integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) drug-resistance mutations (DRMs) in individuals receiving DTG-containing ART. METHODS: We performed a PubMed search using the term "Dolutegravir", last updated 18 December 2023, to estimate the prevalence of VF with emergent INSTI DRMs in people living with HIV (PLWH) without previous VF on an INSTI who received DTG-containing ART. RESULTS: Of 2131 retrieved records, 43 clinical trials, 39 cohorts, and 6 cross-sectional studies provided data across 6 clinical scenarios based on ART history, virological status, and co-administered ARVs: (1) ART-naïve PLWH receiving DTG plus two NRTIs; (2) ART-naïve PLWH receiving DTG plus lamivudine; (3) ART-experienced PLWH with VF on a previous regimen receiving DTG plus two NRTIs; (4) ART-experienced PLWH with virological suppression receiving DTG plus two NRTIs; (5) ART-experienced PLWH with virological suppression receiving DTG and a second ARV; and (6) ART-experienced PLWH with virological suppression receiving DTG monotherapy. The median proportion of PLWH in clinical trials with emergent INSTI DRMs was 1.5% for scenario 3 and 3.4% for scenario 6. In the remaining four trial scenarios, VF prevalence with emergent INSTI DRMs was ≤0.1%. Data from cohort studies minimally influenced prevalence estimates from clinical trials, whereas cross-sectional studies yielded prevalence data lacking denominator details. CONCLUSIONS: In clinical trials, the prevalence of VF with emergent INSTI DRMs in PLWH receiving DTG-containing regimens has been low. Novel approaches are required to assess VF prevalence with emergent INSTI DRMs in PLWH receiving DTG in real-world settings.

Human immunodeficiency virus 1 5'-leader mutations in plasma viruses before and after the development of reverse transcriptase inhibitor-resistance mutations.

Human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) reverse transcriptase (RT) initiation depends on interaction between viral 5'-leader RNA, RT and host tRNA3Lys. Therefore, we sought to identify co-evolutionary changes between the 5'-leader and RT in viruses developing RT-inhibitor resistance mutations. We sequenced 5'-leader positions 37-356 of paired plasma virus samples from 29 individuals developing the nucleoside RT inhibitor (NRTI)-resistance mutation M184V, 19 developing a non-nucleoside RT inhibitor (NNRTI)-resistance mutation and 32 untreated controls. 5'-Leader variants were defined as positions where ≥20 % of next-generation sequencing (NGS) reads differed from the HXB2 sequence. Emergent mutations were defined as nucleotides undergoing a ≥4-fold change in proportion between baseline and follow-up. Mixtures were defined as positions containing ≥2 nucleotides each present in ≥20 % of NGS reads. Among 80 baseline sequences, 87 positions (27.2 %) contained a variant; 52 contained a mixture. Position 201 was the only position more likely to develop a mutation in the M184V (9/29 vs 0/32; P=0.0006) or NNRTI-resistance (4/19 vs 0/32; P=0.02; Fisher's exact test) groups than the control group. Mixtures at positions 200 and 201 occurred in 45.0 and 28.8 %, respectively, of baseline samples. Because of the high proportion of mixtures at these positions, we analysed 5'-leader mixture frequencies in two additional datasets: five publications reporting 294 dideoxyterminator clonal GenBank sequences from 42 individuals and six National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) BioProjects reporting NGS datasets from 295 individuals. These analyses demonstrated position 200 and 201 mixtures at proportions similar to those in our samples and at frequencies several times higher than at all other 5'-leader positions. Although we did not convincingly document co-evolutionary changes between RT and 5'-leader sequences, we identified a novel phenomenon, wherein positions 200 and 201 immediately downstream of the HIV-1 primer binding site exhibited an extraordinarily high likelihood of containing a nucleotide mixture. Possible explanations for the high mixture rates are that these positions are particularly error-prone or provide a viral fitness advantage.

Treatment Emergent Dolutegravir Resistance Mutations in Individuals Naïve to HIV-1 Integrase Inhibitors: A Rapid Scoping Review.

Background: Dolutegravir (DTG)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) rarely leads to virological failure (VF) and drug resistance in integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-naïve persons living with HIV (PLWH). As a result, limited data are available on INSTI-associated drug resistance mutations (DRMs) selected by DTG-containing ART regimens. Methods: We reviewed studies published through July 2023 to identify those reporting emergent major INSTI-associated DRMs in INSTI-naïve PLWH receiving DTG and those containing in vitro DTG susceptibility results using a standardized assay. Results: We identified 36 publications reporting 99 PLWH in whom major nonpolymorphic INSTI-associated DRMs developed on a DTG-containing regimen and 21 publications containing 269 in vitro DTG susceptibility results. DTG-selected DRMs clustered into four largely non-overlapping mutational pathways characterized by mutations at four signature positions: R263K, G118R, N155H, and Q148H/R/K. Eighty-two (82.8%) viruses contained just one signature DRM, including R263K (n = 40), G118R (n = 24), N155H (n = 9), and Q148H/R/K (n = 9). Nine (9.1%) contained ≥1 signature DRM, and eight (8.1%) contained just other DRMs. R263K and G118R were negatively associated with one another and with N155H and Q148H/K/R. R263K alone conferred a median 2.0-fold (IQR: 1.8-2.2) reduction in DTG susceptibility. G118R alone conferred a median 18.8-fold (IQR:14.2-23.4) reduction in DTG susceptibility. N155H alone conferred a median 1.4-fold (IQR: 1.2-1.6) reduction in DTG susceptibility. Q148H/R/K alone conferred a median 0.8-fold (IQR: 0.7-1.1) reduction in DTG susceptibility. Considerably higher levels of reduced susceptibility often occurred when signature DRMs occurred with additional INSTI-associated DRMs. Conclusions: Among INSTI-naïve PLWH with VF and treatment emergent INSTI-associated DRMs, most developed one of four signature DRMs, most commonly R263K or G118R. G118R was associated with a much greater reduction in DTG susceptibility than R263K.

Recommendations on data sharing in HIV drug resistance research.

• Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug resistance has implications for antiretroviral treatment strategies and for containing the HIV pandemic because the development of HIV drug resistance leads to the requirement for antiretroviral drugs that may be less effective, less well-tolerated, and more expensive than those used in first-line regimens. • HIV drug resistance studies are designed to determine which HIV mutations are selected by antiretroviral drugs and, in turn, how these mutations affect antiretroviral drug susceptibility and response to future antiretroviral treatment regimens. • Such studies collectively form a vital knowledge base essential for monitoring global HIV drug resistance trends, interpreting HIV genotypic tests, and updating HIV treatment guidelines. • Although HIV drug resistance data are collected in many studies, such data are often not publicly shared, prompting the need to recommend best practices to encourage and standardize HIV drug resistance data sharing. • In contrast to other viruses, sharing HIV sequences from phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics requires additional precautions as HIV transmission is criminalized in many countries and regions. • Our recommendations are designed to ensure that the data that contribute to HIV drug resistance knowledge will be available without undue hardship to those publishing HIV drug resistance studies and without risk to people living with HIV.

HIV-1 5'-Leader Mutations in Plasma Viruses Before and After the Development of Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor-Resistance Mutations.

Background: HIV-1 RT initiation depends on interaction between viral 5'-leader RNA, RT, and host tRNA3Lys. We therefore sought to identify co-evolutionary changes between the 5'-leader and RT in viruses developing RT-inhibitor resistance mutations. Methods: We sequenced 5'-leader positions 37-356 of paired plasma virus samples from 29 individuals developing the NRTI-resistance mutation M184V, 19 developing an NNRTI-resistance mutation, and 32 untreated controls. 5'-leader variants were defined as positions where ≥20% of NGS reads differed from the HXB2 sequence. Emergent mutations were defined as nucleotides undergoing ≥4-fold change in proportion between baseline and follow-up. Mixtures were defined as positions containing ≥2 nucleotides each present in ≥20% of NGS reads. Results: Among 80 baseline sequences, 87 positions (27.2%) contained a variant; 52 contained a mixture. Position 201 was the only position more likely to develop a mutation in the M184V (9/29 vs. 0/32; p=0.0006) or NNRTI-resistance (4/19 vs. 0/32; p=0.02; Fisher's Exact Test) groups than the control group. Mixtures at positions 200 and 201 occurred in 45.0% and 28.8%, respectively, of baseline samples. Because of the high proportion of mixtures at these positions, we analyzed 5'-leader mixture frequencies in two additional datasets: five publications reporting 294 dideoxyterminator clonal GenBank sequences from 42 individuals and six NCBI BioProjects reporting NGS datasets from 295 individuals. These analyses demonstrated position 200 and 201 mixtures at proportions similar to those in our samples and at frequencies several times higher than at all other 5'-leader positions. Conclusions: Although we did not convincingly document co-evolutionary changes between RT and 5'-leader sequences, we identified a novel phenomenon, wherein positions 200 and 201, immediately downstream of the HIV-1 primer binding site exhibited an extraordinarily high likelihood of containing a nucleotide mixture. Possible explanations for the high mixture rates are that these positions are particularly error-prone or provide a viral fitness advantage.

HIV-1 Group M Capsid Amino Acid Variability: Implications for Sequence Quality Control of Genotypic Resistance Testing.

BACKGROUND: With the approval of the HIV-1 capsid inhibitor, lenacapavir, capsid sequencing will be required for managing lenacapavir-experienced individuals with detectable viremia. Successful sequence interpretation will require examining new capsid sequences in the context of previously published sequence data. METHODS: We analyzed published HIV-1 group M capsid sequences from 21,012 capsid-inhibitor naïve individuals to characterize amino acid variability at each position and influence of subtype and cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) selection pressure. We determined the distributions of usual mutations, defined as amino acid differences from the group M consensus, with a prevalence ≥ 0.1%. Co-evolving mutations were identified using a phylogenetically-informed Bayesian graphical model method. RESULTS: 162 (70.1%) positions had no usual mutations (45.9%) or only conservative usual mutations with a positive BLOSUM62 score (24.2%). Variability correlated independently with subtype-specific amino acid occurrence (Spearman rho = 0.83; p < 1 × 10-9) and the number of times positions were reported to contain an HLA-associated polymorphism, an indicator of CTL pressure (rho = 0.43; p = 0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: Knowing the distribution of usual capsid mutations is essential for sequence quality control. Comparing capsid sequences from lenacapavir-treated and lenacapavir-naïve individuals will enable the identification of additional mutations potentially associated with lenacapavir therapy.

Potential role of doravirine for the treatment of HIV-1-infected persons with transmitted drug resistance.

BACKGROUND: Doravirine has a unique resistance profile but how this profile might increase its usefulness beyond first-line therapy in persons with susceptible viruses has not been well studied. We sought to determine scenarios in which doravirine would retain activity against isolates from ART-naïve persons with transmitted drug resistance (TDR) and to identify gaps in available doravirine susceptibility data. METHODS: We analyzed published in vitro doravirine susceptibility data and applied the results to 42,535 RT sequences from ART-naïve persons published between 2017 and 2021. NNRTI drug resistance mutations (DRMs) were defined as those with a Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database doravirine penalty score either alone or in combination with other mutations. RESULTS: V106A, Y188L, F227C/L, M230L, and Y318F were associated with the greatest reductions in doravirine susceptibility. However, several NNRTI DRMs and DRM combinations lacking these canonical resistance mutations had > tenfold reduced susceptibility including G190E, one isolate with G190S, three isolates with L100I + K103N, one isolate with K103N + P225H, and isolates with L100I + K103N + V108I and K101E + Y181C + G190A. Of the 42,535 ART-naïve sequences, 3,374 (7.9%) contained a NNRTI DRM of which 2,788 (82.6%) contained 1 DRM (n = 33 distinct mutations), 426 (12.6%) contained 2 DRMs (79 distinct pairs of mutations), and 143 (4.2%) contained ≥ 3 DRMs (86 distinct mutation patterns). Among the 2,788 sequences with one DRM, 112 (4.0%) were associated with ≥ 3.0-fold reduced doravirine susceptibility while 2,625 (94.2%) were associated with < 3.0-fold reduced susceptibility. Data were not available for individual NNRTI DRMs in 51 sequences (1.8%). Among the 426 sequences with two NNRTI DRMs, 180 (42.3%) were associated with ≥ 3.0 fold reduced doravirine susceptibility while just 32 (7.5%) had < 3.0 fold reduced susceptibility. Data were not available for 214 (50.2%) sequences containing two NNRTI DRMs. CONCLUSIONS: First-line therapy containing doravirine plus two NRTIs is expected to be effective in treating most persons with TDR as more than 80% of TDR sequences had a single NNRTI DRM and as more than 90% with a single DRM were expected to be susceptible to doravirine. However, caution is required for the use of doravirine in persons with more than one NNRTI DRM even if none of the DRMs are canonical doravirine-resistance mutations.

Highly Ambiguous HIV-1 Pol Positions Encoding Multiple Amino Acids Usually Result from Antiviral or Immune Selection Pressure.

HIV-1 pol nucleotide ambiguities encoding amino acid mixtures occur commonly during population-based genotypic drug resistance testing. However, few studies have addressed the validity of sequences with fully ambiguous codons (FACs) containing codons translatable to more than four amino acids. We identified 839 published HIV-1 pol sequences with 846 FACs at 131 positions and determined their distribution relative to 215 HLA-associated pol positions (HAPs) and 84 drug-resistance positions. Among HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) and protease sequences from antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive and -experienced persons, there was a strong correlation between the likelihood a position was a FAC and that it was an HAP (Spearman's correlation coefficient rho >0.40; p < 1e-6). Among HIV-1 RT sequences from ART-experienced persons, there was a correlation between the likelihood that a position was a FAC and that it was a drug-resistance position (rho = 0.2; p = 8e-4). In the context of population-based genotypic resistance testing, FACs usually result from antiviral or immune selection pressure.

Genotypic correlates of resistance to the HIV-1 strand transfer integrase inhibitor cabotegravir.

Cabotegravir (CAB) is an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) formulated as a long-acting injectable drug approved for pre-exposure prophylaxis and use with a long acting rilpivirine formulation for therapy in patients with virological suppression. However, there has been no comprehensive review of the genetic mechanisms of CAB resistance. Studies reporting the selection of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) by CAB and the results of in vitro CAB susceptibility testing were reviewed. The impact of integrase mutations on CAB susceptibility was assessed using regularized regression analysis. The most commonly selected mutations in the 24 persons developing virological failure while receiving CAB included Q148R (n = 15), N155H (n = 7), and E138K (n = 5). T97A, G118R, G140 A/R/S, and R263K each developed in 1-2 persons. With the exception of T97A, G118R, and G140 A/R, these DRMs were also selected in vitro while G140R was selected in the SIV macaque model. Although these DRMs are similar to those occurring in persons receiving the related INSTI dolutegravir, Q148R was more likely to occur with CAB while G118R and R263K were more likely to occur with dolutegravir. Regularized regression analysis identified 14 DRMs significantly associated with reduced CAB susceptibility including six primary DRMs which reduced susceptibility on their own including G118R, Q148 H/K/R, N155H, and R263K, and eight accessory DRMs including M50I, L74 F/M, T97A, E138K, and G140 A/C/S. Isolates with Q148 H/K/R in combination with L74M, E138 A/K, G140 A/S, and N155H often had >10-fold reduced CAB susceptibility. M50I, L74M, and T97A are polymorphic mutations that alone did not appear to increase the risk of virological failure in persons receiving a CAB-containing regimen. Careful patient screening is required to prevent CAB from being used during active virus replication. Close virological monitoring is required to minimize CAB exposure to active replication to prevent the emergence of DRMs associated with cross-resistance to other INSTIs.

Public availability of HIV-1 drug resistance sequence and treatment data: a systematic review.

HIV-1 pol sequences from antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive and ART-experienced people living with HIV-1 are fundamental to understanding the genetic correlates and epidemiology of HIV-1 drug resistance (HIVDR). To assess the public availability of HIV-1 pol sequences and ART histories of the individuals from whom sequenced viruses were obtained, we performed a systematic review of PubMed and GenBank for HIVDR studies published between 2010 and 2019 that reported HIV-1 pol sequences. 934 studies met inclusion criteria, including 461 studies of ART-naive adults, 407 of ART-experienced adults, and 66 of ART-naive and ART-experienced children. Sequences were available for 317 (68·8%) studies of ART-naive individuals, 190 (46·7%) of ART-experienced individuals, and 45 (68·2%) of children. Among ART-experienced individuals, sequences plus linked ART histories were available for 82 (20·1%) studies. Sequences were available for 21 (29·2%) of 72 clinical trials. Among journals publishing more than ten studies, the proportion with available sequences ranged from 8·3% to 86·9%. Strengthened implementation of data sharing policies is required to increase the number of studies with available HIVDR data to support the enterprise of global ART in the face of emerging HIVDR.

Spectrum of Atazanavir-Selected Protease Inhibitor-Resistance Mutations.

Ritonavir-boosted atazanavir is an option for second-line therapy in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We analyzed publicly available HIV-1 protease sequences from previously PI-naïve patients with virological failure (VF) following treatment with atazanavir. Overall, 1497 patient sequences were identified, including 740 reported in 27 published studies and 757 from datasets assembled for this analysis. A total of 63% of patients received boosted atazanavir. A total of 38% had non-subtype B viruses. A total of 264 (18%) sequences had a PI drug-resistance mutation (DRM) defined as having a Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database mutation penalty score. Among sequences with a DRM, nine major DRMs had a prevalence >5%: I50L (34%), M46I (33%), V82A (22%), L90M (19%), I54V (16%), N88S (10%), M46L (8%), V32I (6%), and I84V (6%). Common accessory DRMs were L33F (21%), Q58E (16%), K20T (14%), G73S (12%), L10F (10%), F53L (10%), K43T (9%), and L24I (6%). A novel nonpolymorphic mutation, L89T occurred in 8.4% of non-subtype B, but in only 0.4% of subtype B sequences. The 264 sequences included 3 (1.1%) interpreted as causing high-level, 14 (5.3%) as causing intermediate, and 27 (10.2%) as causing low-level darunavir resistance. Atazanavir selects for nine major and eight accessory DRMs, and one novel nonpolymorphic mutation occurring primarily in non-B sequences. Atazanavir-selected mutations confer low-levels of darunavir cross resistance. Clinical studies, however, are required to determine the optimal boosted PI to use for second-line and potentially later line therapy in LMICs.

Adherence to contemporary antiretroviral treatment regimens and impact on immunological and virologic outcomes in a US healthcare system.

BACKGROUND: Only a few recent reports have examined longitudinal adherence patterns in US clinics and its impact on immunological and virological outcomes among large cohorts initiating contemporary antiretroviral therapy (ART) in US clinics. METHODS: We followed all persons with HIV (PLWH) in a California clinic population initiating ART between 2010 and 2017. We estimated longitudinal adherence for each PLWH by calculating the medication possession ratio within multiple 6-month intervals using pharmacy refill records. RESULTS: During the study, 2315 PWLH were followed for a median time of 210.8 weeks and only 179 (7.7%) were lost-to-follow-up. The mean adherence was 84.9%. Age (Hazard Ratio (HR): (95% confidence interval): 1.25 (1.20-1.31) per 10-year increase) and Black race (HR: 0.62 (0.53-0.73) vs. White) were associated with adherence in the cohort. A 10% percent increase in adherence increased the odds of being virally suppressed by 37% (OR and 95% CI: 1.37 [1.33-1.41]) and was associated with an increase in mean CD4 count by 8.54 cells/ul in the next 6-month interval (p-value <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that despite large improvements in retention in care, demographic disparities in adherence to ART persist. Adherence was lower among younger patients and black patients. Our study confirmed the strong association between adherence to ART and viral suppression but could only establish a weak association between adherence and CD4 count. These findings reaffirm the importance of adherence and retention in care and further highlight the need for tailored patient-centered HIV Care Models as a strategy to improve PLWH's outcomes.

Insights into HIV-1 Transmission Dynamics Using Routinely Collected Data in the Mid-Atlantic United States.

Background: Molecular epidemiological approaches provide opportunities to characterize HIV transmission dynamics. We analyzed HIV sequences and virus load (VL) results obtained during routine clinical care, and individual's zip-code location to determine utility of this approach. Methods: HIV-1 pol sequences aligned using ClustalW were subtyped using REGA. A maximum likelihood (ML) tree was generated using IQTree. Transmission clusters with ≤3% genetic distance (GD) and ≥90% bootstrap support were identified using ClusterPicker. We conducted Bayesian analysis using BEAST to confirm transmission clusters. The proportion of nucleotides with ambiguity ≤0.5% was considered indicative of early infection. Descriptive statistics were applied to characterize clusters and group comparisons were performed using chi-square or t-test. Results: Among 2775 adults with data from 2014−2015, 2589 (93%) had subtype B HIV-1, mean age was 44 years (SD 12.7), 66.4% were male, and 25% had nucleotide ambiguity ≤0.5. There were 456 individuals in 193 clusters: 149 dyads, 32 triads, and 12 groups with ≥ four individuals per cluster. More commonly in clusters were males than females, 349 (76.5%) vs. 107 (23.5%), p < 0.0001; younger individuals, 35.3 years (SD 12.1) vs. 44.7 (SD 12.3), p < 0.0001; and those with early HIV-1 infection by nucleotide ambiguity, 202/456 (44.3%) vs. 442/2133 (20.7%), p < 0.0001. Members of 43/193 (22.3%) of clusters included individuals in different jurisdictions. Clusters ≥ four individuals were similarly found using BEAST. HIV-1 viral load (VL) ≥3.0 log10 c/mL was most common among individuals in clusters ≥ four, 18/21, (85.7%) compared to 137/208 (65.8%) in clusters sized 2−3, and 927/1169 (79.3%) who were not in a cluster (p < 0.0001). Discussion: HIV sequence data obtained for HIV clinical management provide insights into regional transmission dynamics. Our findings demonstrate the additional utility of HIV-1 VL data in combination with phylogenetic inferences as an enhanced contact tracing tool to direct HIV treatment and prevention services. Trans-jurisdictional approaches are needed to optimize efforts to end the HIV epidemic.

Comparing mutational pathways to lopinavir resistance in HIV-1 subtypes B versus C.

Although combination antiretroviral therapies seem to be effective at controlling HIV-1 infections regardless of the viral subtype, there is increasing evidence for subtype-specific drug resistance mutations. The order and rates at which resistance mutations accumulate in different subtypes also remain poorly understood. Most of this knowledge is derived from studies of subtype B genotypes, despite not being the most abundant subtype worldwide. Here, we present a methodology for the comparison of mutational networks in different HIV-1 subtypes, based on Hidden Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (H-CBN), a probabilistic model for inferring mutational networks from cross-sectional genotype data. We introduce a Monte Carlo sampling scheme for learning H-CBN models for a larger number of resistance mutations and develop a statistical test to assess differences in the inferred mutational networks between two groups. We apply this method to infer the temporal progression of mutations conferring resistance to the protease inhibitor lopinavir in a large cross-sectional cohort of HIV-1 subtype C genotypes from South Africa, as well as to a data set of subtype B genotypes obtained from the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We find strong support for different initial mutational events in the protease, namely at residue 46 in subtype B and at residue 82 in subtype C. The inferred mutational networks for subtype B versus C are significantly different sharing only five constraints on the order of accumulating mutations with mutation at residue 54 as the parental event. The results also suggest that mutations can accumulate along various alternative paths within subtypes, as opposed to a unique total temporal ordering. Beyond HIV drug resistance, the statistical methodology is applicable more generally for the comparison of inferred mutational networks between any two groups.

Temporal Trends in HIV-1 Mutations Used for the Surveillance of Transmitted Drug Resistance.

In 2009, a list of nonpolymorphic HIV-1 drug resistance mutations (DRMs), called surveillance DRMs (SDRMs), was created to monitor transmitted drug resistance (TDR). Since 2009, TDR increased and antiretroviral therapy (ART) practices changed. We examined the changing prevalence of SDRMs and identified candidate SDRMs defined as nonpolymorphic DRMs present on ≥ 1 expert DRM list and in ≥0.1% of ART-experienced persons. Candidate DRMs were further characterized according to their association with antiretrovirals and changing prevalence. Among NRTI-SDRMs, tenofovir-associated mutations increased in prevalence while thymidine analog mutations decreased in prevalence. Among candidate NRTI-SDRMs, there were six tenofovir-associated mutations including three which increased in prevalence (K65N, T69deletion, K70G/N/Q/T). Among candidate NNRTI-SDRMs, six that increased in prevalence were associated with rilpivirine (E138K/Q, V179L, H221Y) or doravirine (F227C/L) resistance. With the notable exceptions of I47A and I50L, most PI-SDRMs decreased in prevalence. Three candidate PI-SDRMs were accessory darunavir-resistance mutations (L10F, T74P, L89V). Adding the candidate SDRMs listed above was estimated to increase NRTI, NNRTI, and PI TDR prevalence by 0.1%, 0.3%, and 0.3%, respectively. We describe trends in the prevalence of nonpolymorphic HIV-1 DRMs in ART-experienced persons. These data should be considered in decisions regarding SDRM list updates and TDR monitoring.

Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitor Resistance in Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitor-Naive Persons.

There has been no systematic review of the prevalence of transmitted integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) resistance. We systematically searched the English-language PubMed database and GenBank to identify studies published since 2010 reporting 50 or more INSTI-naive HIV-1-infected adults undergoing integrase genotyping. We extracted data related to country, sample year, specimen type, sequencing method, and subtype. For studies with sequences in GenBank, we determined the prevalence of three categories of INSTI-associated resistance mutations: (1) nonpolymorphic INSTI-selected drug resistance mutations (DRMs) that we refer to as surveillance DRMs; (2) rarely selected nonpolymorphic INSTI-associated DRMs; and (3) common polymorphic accessory INSTI-selected DRMs. A total of 103 studies met inclusion criteria including 75 studies in GenBank containing integrase sequences from 16,481 INSTI-naive persons. The median sample year was 2013 (interquartile range: 2008-2014). The prevalence of INSTI surveillance DRMs, rarely selected DRMs, and common polymorphic accessory INSTI-selected DRMs were 0.5%, 0.8%, and 6.2%, respectively. There was no association between the presence of nonpolymorphic surveillance DRM and region, sample year, or subtype. Two surveillance DRMs, E138K and R263K occurred in 0.15% and 0.10% of naive sequences, respectively. Several lines of evidence suggested that the 0.5% prevalence of surveillance DRMs partly reflects the cumulative natural occurrence of these mutations in the absence of selective drug pressure. There was an unexplained temporal increase in the proportion of sequences with polymorphic accessory mutations. The prevalence of INSTI-associated surveillance DRMs is low even in regions where INSTIs have been a major component of antiretroviral therapy for several years. The presence of INSTI-associated surveillance DRMs in INSTI-naive persons likely results from actual cases of transmitted INSTI resistance and from a low background level reflecting the cumulative rare natural occurrence of several nonpolymorphic mutations.

Predictors of first-line antiretroviral therapy failure among adults and adolescents living with HIV/AIDS in a large prevention and treatment program in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: A substantial number of persons living with HIV (PLWH) in Nigeria do not experience durable viral suppression on first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). Understanding risk factors for first-line treatment failure informs patient monitoring practices and distribution of limited resources for second-line regimens. We determined predictors of immunologic and virologic failures in a large ART delivery program in Abuja, Nigeria. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at the University of Abuja Teaching Hospital, a tertiary health care facility, using data from February 2005 to December 2014 in Abuja, Nigeria. All PLWH aged ≥ 15 years who initiated ART with at least 6-month follow-up and one CD4 measurement were included. Immunologic failure was defined as a CD4 decrease to or below pre-ART level or persistent CD4 < 100 cells per mm3 after 6 months on ART. Virologic failure (VF) was defined as two consecutive HIV-1 RNA levels > 1000 copies/mL after at least 6 months of ART and enhanced adherence counselling. HIV drug resistance (Sanger sequences) was analyzed using the Stanford HIV database algorithm and scored for resistance to common nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs). Univariate and multivariate log binomial regression models were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Of 12,452 patients followed, a total of 5928 initiated ART with at least 6 months of follow-up and one CD4 measurement. The entry point for 3924 (66.2%) was through the program's own voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) center, while 1310 (22.1%) were referred from an outside clinic/program, 332 (5.6%) in-patients, and 373 (6.3%) through other entry points including prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) and transferred from other programs. The mean CD4 at enrollment in care was 268 ± 23.7 cells per mm3, and the mean HIV-1 RNA was 3.3 ± 1.3.log10 copies/mL. A total of 3468 (80.5%) received nevirapine (NVP) and 2260 (19.5%) received efavirenz (EFV)-based regimens. A total of 2140 (36.1%) received tenofovir (TDF); 2662 (44.9%) zidovudine (AZT); and 1126 (19.0%) stavudine (d4T). Among those receiving TDF, 45.0% also received emtricitabine (FTC). In a multivariate model, immunologic failure was more common among PLWH with female gender as compared to male [RR (95% CI) 1.22 (1.07-1.40)] and less common among those who entered care at the program's VCT center as compared to other entry points [0.79 (0.64-0.91)], WHO stage 3/4 as compared to 1/2 [0.19 (0.16-0.22)], or CD4 200 + cells per mm3 as compared to lower [0.19 (0.16-0.22)]. Virologic failure was more common among PLWH who entered care at the program's VCT center as compared to other entry points [RR (95% CI) 1.45 (1.11-1.91) and those with CD4 < 200 cells per mm3 at entry into care as compared to higher [1.71 (1.36-2.16)]. Of 198 patient-derived samples sequenced during virologic failure, 42 (21%) were wild-type; 145 (73%) carried NNRTI drug resistance mutations; 151 (76.3%) M184I/V; 29 (14.6%) had ≥ 3 TAMs, and 37 (18.7%) had K65R, of whom all were on TDF-containing first-line regimens. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of Nigerian PLWH followed for a period of 9 years, immunologic criteria poorly predicted virologic failure. Furthermore, a subset of samples showed that patients failing ART for extended periods of time had HIV-1 strains harboring drug resistance mutations.

Coronavirus Antiviral Research Database (CoV-RDB): An Online Database Designed to Facilitate Comparisons between Candidate Anti-Coronavirus Compounds.

BACKGROUND: To prioritize the development of antiviral compounds, it is necessary to compare their relative preclinical activity and clinical efficacy. METHODS: We reviewed in vitro, animal model, and clinical studies of candidate anti-coronavirus compounds and placed extracted data in an online relational database. RESULTS: As of August 2020, the Coronavirus Antiviral Research Database (CoV-RDB; covdb.stanford.edu) contained over 2800 cell culture, entry assay, and biochemical experiments, 259 animal model studies, and 73 clinical studies from over 400 published papers. SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV account for 85% of the data. Approximately 75% of experiments involved compounds with known or likely mechanisms of action, including monoclonal antibodies and receptor binding inhibitors (21%), viral protease inhibitors (17%), miscellaneous host-acting inhibitors (10%), polymerase inhibitors (9%), interferons (7%), fusion inhibitors (5%), and host protease inhibitors (5%). Of 975 compounds with known or likely mechanism, 135 (14%) are licensed in the U.S. for other indications, 197 (20%) are licensed outside the U.S. or are in human trials, and 595 (61%) are pre-clinical investigational compounds. CONCLUSION: CoV-RDB facilitates comparisons between different candidate antiviral compounds, thereby helping scientists, clinical investigators, public health officials, and funding agencies prioritize the most promising compounds and repurposed drugs for further development.

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance surveillance: shifting trends in study design and prevalence estimates.

INTRODUCTION: HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) prevalence increased during the initial years of the antiretroviral therapy (ART) global scale-up. Few studies have examined recent trends in TDR prevalence using published genetic sequences and described the characteristics of ART-naïve persons from whom these published sequences have been obtained. METHODS: We identified 125 studies published between 2014 and 2019 for which HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) with or without protease from ≥50 ART-naïve adult persons were submitted to the GenBank sequence database. The population characteristics and TDR prevalence were compared to those in 122 studies published in the preceding five years between 2009 and 2013. TDR prevalence was analysed using median study-level and person-level data. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The 2009 to 2013 and 2014 to 2019 studies reported sequence data from 32,866 and 41,724 ART-naïve persons respectively. Studies from the low- and middle-income country (LMIC) regions in sub-Saharan Africa, South/Southeast Asia and Latin America/Caribbean accounted for approximately two-thirds of the studies during each period. Between the two periods, the proportion of studies from sub-Saharan Africa and from South/Southeast Asia countries other than China decreased from 43% to 32% and the proportion of studies performed at sentinel sites for recent HIV-1 infection decreased from 33% to 22%. Between 2014 and 2019, median study-level TDR prevalence was 4.1% in South/Southeast Asia, 6.0% in sub-Saharan Africa, 9.1% in Latin America/Caribbean, 8.5% in Europe and 14.2% in North America. In the person-level analysis, there was an increase in overall, NNRTI and two-class NRTI/NNRTI resistance in sub-Saharan Africa; an increase in NNRTI resistance in Latin America/Caribbean, and an increase in overall, NNRTI and PI resistance in North America. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, NNRTI and dual NRTI/NNRTI-associated TDR prevalence was significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa studies published between 2014 and 2019 compared with those published between 2009 and 2013. The decreasing proportion of studies from the hardest hit LMIC regions and the shift away from sentinel sites for recent infection suggests that global TDR surveillance efforts and publication of findings require renewed emphasis.