Two-Year Outcomes of Umbilical Cord Milking in Nonvigorous Infants: A Secondary Analysis of the MINVI Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Compared with early cord clamping (ECC), umbilical cord milking (UCM) reduces delivery room cardiorespiratory support, hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, and therapeutic hypothermia in nonvigorous near-term and full-term infants. However, UCM postdischarge outcomes are not known. Objective: To determine the 2-year outcomes of children randomized to UCM or ECC at birth in the Milking in Nonvigorous Infants (MINVI) trial. Design, Setting, and Participants: A secondary analysis to evaluate longer-term outcomes of a cluster-randomized crossover trial was conducted from January 9, 2021, to September 25, 2023. The primary trial took place in 10 medical centers in the US, Canada, and Poland from January 5, 2019, to June 1, 2021, and hypothesized that UCM would reduce admission to the neonatal intensive care unit compared with ECC; follow-up concluded September 26, 2023. The population included near-term and full-term infants aged 35 to 42 weeks' gestation at birth who were nonvigorous; families provided consent to complete developmental screening questionnaires through age 2 years. Intervention: UCM and ECC. Main Outcomes and Measures: Ages and Stages Questionnaire, 3rd Edition (ASQ-3) and Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers, Revised/Follow-Up (M-CHAT-R/F) questionnaires at ages 22 to 26 months. Intention-to-treat analysis and per-protocol analyses were used. Results: Among 1730 newborns from the primary trial, long-term outcomes were evaluated in 971 children (81%) who had ASQ-3 scores available at 2 years or died before age 2 years and 927 children (77%) who had M-CHAT-R/F scores or died before age 2 years. Maternal and neonatal characteristics by treatment group were similar, with median birth gestational age of 39 (IQR, 38-40) weeks in both groups; 224 infants (45%) in the UCM group and 201 (43%) in the ECC group were female. The median ASQ-3 total scores were similar (UCM: 255 [IQR, 225-280] vs ECC: 255 [IQR, 230-280]; P = .87), with no significant differences in the ASQ-3 subdomains. Medium- to high-risk M-CHAT-R/F scores were also similar (UCM, 9% [45 of 486] vs ECC, 8% [37 of 441]; P = .86). Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial among late near-term and full-term infants who were nonvigorous at birth, ASQ-3 scores at age 2 years were not significantly different between the UCM and ECC groups. Combined with previously reported important short-term benefits, this follow-up study suggests UCM is a feasible, no-cost intervention without longer-term neurodevelopmental risks of cord milking in nonvigorous near-term and term newborns. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03631940.

Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Maternal Hemorrhage and Transfusion: Model Development Study.

BACKGROUND: Current postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) risk stratification is based on traditional statistical models or expert opinion. Machine learning could optimize PPH prediction by allowing for more complex modeling. OBJECTIVE: We sought to improve PPH prediction and compare machine learning and traditional statistical methods. METHODS: We developed models using the Consortium for Safe Labor data set (2002-2008) from 12 US hospitals. The primary outcome was a transfusion of blood products or PPH (estimated blood loss of ≥1000 mL). The secondary outcome was a transfusion of any blood product. Fifty antepartum and intrapartum characteristics and hospital characteristics were included. Logistic regression, support vector machines, multilayer perceptron, random forest, and gradient boosting (GB) were used to generate prediction models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) and area under the precision/recall curve (PR-AUC) were used to compare performance. RESULTS: Among 228,438 births, 5760 (3.1%) women had a postpartum hemorrhage, 5170 (2.8%) had a transfusion, and 10,344 (5.6%) met the criteria for the transfusion-PPH composite. Models predicting the transfusion-PPH composite using antepartum and intrapartum features had the best positive predictive values, with the GB machine learning model performing best overall (ROC-AUC=0.833, 95% CI 0.828-0.838; PR-AUC=0.210, 95% CI 0.201-0.220). The most predictive features in the GB model predicting the transfusion-PPH composite were the mode of delivery, oxytocin incremental dose for labor (mU/minute), intrapartum tocolytic use, presence of anesthesia nurse, and hospital type. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning offers higher discriminability than logistic regression in predicting PPH. The Consortium for Safe Labor data set may not be optimal for analyzing risk due to strong subgroup effects, which decreases accuracy and limits generalizability.

Factors Associated with the Uptake of Rotavirus and Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines among Children in Armenia: Implications for Future New Vaccine Introductions.

Advances in vaccinology have resulted in various new vaccines being introduced into recommended immunization schedules. Armenia introduced the rotavirus vaccine (RV) and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into its national schedule in 2012 and 2014, respectively. Using data from the Armenia Demographic and Health Survey, the uptake of the RV and the PCV among children aged younger than three years was estimated. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to evaluate individual- and community-level factors associated with uptake. Intra-cluster correlations were estimated to explain variations in uptake between clusters. The uptake proportionof each RV dose were 90.0% and 86.6%, while each PCV dose had values of 83.5%, 79.4%, and 75.5%, respectively. Non-uptake was highest among children less than 6 months old, children with one sibling, children from a wealthy family, or children whose living distance to a health clinic was problematic. Significant variability in non-uptake due to cluster differences was found for both RV doses (30.5% and 22.8%, respectively) and for the second PCV dose (53.9%). When developing strategies for new vaccine implementation, characteristics of the child, such as age, siblingship, and distance to a health clinic or residence, should be considered. Further exploration of cluster differences may provide insights based on the increased uptake of these and other new vaccines.

Maternal and Delivery Characteristics and Self-Reported Perceived Control During Labor.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between maternal and delivery characteristics and self-reported perceived control during childbirth. METHODS: A secondary analysis of a multicenter randomized trial was conducted to compare labor induction at 39 weeks of gestation with expectant management in low-risk nulliparous people. Six to 96 hours after delivery, participants who experienced labor completed the Labor Agentry Scale, a validated self-administered questionnaire to ascertain perceived control during childbirth. Scores range from 29 to 203, with higher scores indicating a sense of greater control. Multivariable linear regression was used to determine which maternal and delivery characteristics were associated with the Labor Agentry Scale score. Eligible characteristics included age, self-reported race and ethnicity, marital status, employment status, type of insurance, previous pregnancy loss before 20 weeks of gestation, body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol use, mode of delivery, labor pain (0-10 points), and a composite of perinatal death or severe neonatal complications. Significant variables ( P <.05) were retained in the final multivariable model, and adjusted mean differences (95% CIs) between groups were estimated. RESULTS: Of 6,106 people enrolled in the trial, 6,038 experienced labor, of whom 5,750 (95.2%) completed the Labor Agentry Scale and were included in this analysis. Mean [95% CI] adjusted Labor Agentry Scale scores were significantly lower among those who identified as Asian (-6.4 [-10.5 to -2.3]) or Hispanic (-3.7 [-5.7 to -1.7]) compared with White, smoked compared with did not smoke (-2.8 [-5.5 to -0.1]), had BMIs of 35 or higher compared with less than 30 (-2.0 [-3.8 to -0.2]), were unemployed (-3.15 [-4.76 to -1.55]), did not have private health insurance (-2.61 [-4.47 to -0.76]), underwent operative vaginal (-5.1 [-7.7 to -2.6]) or cesarean (-14.4 [-16.1 to -12.6]) delivery compared with spontaneous vaginal delivery, and reported greater labor pain score of 8 or higher compared with less than 8 (-11.9 [-13.4 to -10.4]). Mean [95% CI] adjusted Labor Agentry Scale scores were significantly higher among people who were employed compared with unemployed (3.2 [1.6-4.8]) and had private compared with nonprivate insurance (2.6 [0.76-4.5]). CONCLUSION: In nulliparous people at low risk, unemployment, lack of private health insurance, Asian race, Hispanic ethnicity, smoking, operative delivery, and more labor pain were associated with lower perceived control during labor. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT01990612.

Oral Glucose Tolerance Test in Pregnancy and Subsequent Maternal Hypertension.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study is to evaluate whether values and the shape of the glucose curve during the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in pregnancy identify women at risk of developing hypertension (HTN) later in life. STUDY DESIGN: This category includes the secondary analysis of a follow-up from a mild gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) study that included a treatment trial for mild GDM (n = 458) and an observational cohort of participants with abnormal 1-hour glucose loading test only (normal OGTT, n = 430). Participants were assessed at a median of 7 (IQR 6-8) years after their index pregnancy, and trained staff measured their blood pressure (systolic blood pressure [SBP]; diastolic blood pressure [DBP]). The association between values and the shape of the glucose curve during OGTT in the index pregnancy and the primary outcome defined as elevated BP (SBP ≥120, DBP ≥80 mm Hg, or receiving anti-HTN medications), and secondary outcome defined as stage 1 or higher (SBP ≥130, DBP ≥80 mm Hg, or receiving anti-HTN medications) at follow-up were evaluated using multivariable regression, adjusting for maternal age, body mass index, and pregnancy-associated hypertension during the index pregnancy. RESULTS: There was no association between fasting, 1-hour OGTT, and the outcomes. However, the 2-hour OGTT value was positively associated (adjusted odds ratio [aRR] per 10-unit increase 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.08), and the 3-hour was inversely associated (aRR per 10-unit increase 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.99) with the primary outcome. When the shape of the OGTT curve was evaluated, a monophasic OGTT response (peak at 1 hour followed by a decline in glucose) was associated with increased risk of elevated BP (41.3vs. 23.5%, aRR 1.66, 95% CI 1.17-2.35) and stage 1 HTN or higher (28.5 vs. 14.7%, aRR 1.83, 95% CI 1.15-2.92), compared with a biphasic OGTT response. CONCLUSION: Among persons with mild GDM or lesser degrees of glucose intolerance, the shape of the OGTT curve during pregnancy may help identify women who are at risk of HTN later in life, with biphasic shape to be associated with lower risk. KEY POINTS: · The shape of the Oral Glucose Tolerance Test curve may help identify patients who are at risk of having elevated BP or HTN 5 to 10 years following pregnancy.. · The 2-hour Oral Glucose Tolerance Test values is positively associated with elevated BP 5 to 10 years following pregnancy.. · This supports the concept of pregnancy as a window to future health and represents a potential novel biomarker for maternal cardiovascular health screening..

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Adverse Perinatal Outcomes at Term.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate whether racial and ethnic disparities in adverse perinatal outcomes exist at term. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a secondary analysis of a multicenter observational study of 115,502 pregnant patients and their neonates (2008-2011). Singleton, nonanomalous pregnancies delivered from 37 to 41 weeks were included. Race and ethnicity were abstracted from the medical record and categorized as non-Hispanic White (White; referent), non-Hispanic Black (Black), non-Hispanic Asian (Asian), or Hispanic. The primary outcome was an adverse perinatal composite defined as perinatal death, Apgar score < 4 at 5 minutes, ventilator support, hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, subgaleal hemorrhage, skeletal fracture, infant stay greater than maternal stay (by ≥ 3 days), brachial plexus palsy, or facial nerve palsy. RESULTS: Of the 72,117 patients included, 48% were White, 20% Black, 5% Asian, and 26% Hispanic. The unadjusted risk of the primary outcome was highest for neonates of Black patients (3.1%, unadjusted relative risk [uRR] = 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.30), lowest for neonates of Hispanic patients (2.1%, uRR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.71-0.89), and no different for neonates of Asian (2.6%), compared with those of White patients (2.7%). In the adjusted model including age, body mass index (BMI), smoking, obstetric history, and high-risk pregnancy, differences in risk for the primary outcome were no longer observed for neonates of Black (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.94-1.19) and Hispanic (aRR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.81-1.04) patients. Adding insurance to the model lowered the risk for both groups (aRR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.75-0.96 for Black; aRR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.59-0.78 for Hispanic). CONCLUSION: Although neonates of Black patients have the highest frequency of adverse perinatal outcomes at term, after adjustment for sociodemographic factors, this higher risk is no longer observed, suggesting the importance of developing strategies that address social determinants of health to lessen extant health disparities. KEY POINTS: · Term neonates of Black patients have the highest crude frequency of adverse perinatal outcomes.. · After adjustment for confounders, higher risk for neonates of Black patients is no longer observed.. · Disparities in outcomes are strongly related to insurance status..

Umbilical cord milking in nonvigorous infants: a cluster-randomized crossover trial.

BACKGROUND: Delayed cord clamping and umbilical cord milking provide placental transfusion to vigorous newborns. Delayed cord clamping in nonvigorous newborns may not be provided owing to a perceived need for immediate resuscitation. Umbilical cord milking is an alternative, as it can be performed more quickly than delayed cord clamping and may confer similar benefits. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that umbilical cord milking would reduce admission to the neonatal intensive care unit compared with early cord clamping in nonvigorous newborns born between 35 and 42 weeks' gestation. STUDY DESIGN: This was a pragmatic cluster-randomized crossover trial of infants born at 35 to 42 weeks' gestation in 10 medical centers in 3 countries between January 2019 and May 2021. The centers were randomized to umbilical cord milking or early cord clamping for approximately 1 year and then crossed over for an additional year or until the required number of consented subjects was reached. Waiver of consent as obtained in all centers to implement the intervention. Infants were eligible if nonvigorous at birth (poor tone, pale color, or lack of breathing in the first 15 seconds after birth) and were assigned to umbilical cord milking or early cord clamping according to their birth hospital randomization assignment. The baseline characteristics and outcomes were collected following deferred informed consent. The primary outcome was admission to the neonatal intensive care unit for predefined criteria. The main safety outcome was hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy. Data were analyzed by the intention-to-treat concept. RESULTS: Among 16,234 screened newborns, 1780 were eligible (905 umbilical cord milking, 875 early cord clamping), and 1730 had primary outcome data for analysis (97% of eligible; 872 umbilical cord milking, 858 early cord clamping) either via informed consent (606 umbilical cord milking, 601 early cord clamping) or waiver of informed consent (266 umbilical cord milking, 257 early cord clamping). The difference in the frequency of neonatal intensive care unit admission using predefined criteria between the umbilical cord milking (23%) and early cord clamping (28%) groups did not reach statistical significance (modeled odds ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.41-1.14). Umbilical cord milking was associated with predefined secondary outcomes, including higher hemoglobin (modeled mean difference between umbilical cord milking and early cord clamping groups 0.68 g/dL, 95% confidence interval, 0.31-1.05), lower odds of abnormal 1-minute Apgar scores (Apgar ≤3, 30% vs 34%, crude odds ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.92); cardiorespiratory support at delivery (61% vs 71%, modeled odds ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.99), and therapeutic hypothermia (3% vs 4%, crude odds ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.99). Moderate-to-severe hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy was significantly less common with umbilical cord milking (1% vs 3%, crude odds ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-0.96). No significant differences were observed for normal saline bolus, phototherapy, abnormal 5-minute Apgar scores (Apgar ≤6, 15.7% vs 18.8%, crude odds ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-1.06), or a serious adverse event composite of death before discharge. CONCLUSION: Among nonvigorous infants born at 35 to 42 weeks' gestation, umbilical cord milking did not reduce neonatal intensive care unit admission for predefined criteria. However, infants in the umbilical cord milking arm had higher hemoglobin, received less delivery room cardiorespiratory support, had a lower incidence of moderate-to-severe hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, and received less therapeutic hypothermia. These data may provide the first randomized controlled trial evidence that umbilical cord milking in nonvigorous infants is feasible, safe and, superior to early cord clamping.

Prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery in term gestations: a calculator without race and ethnicity.

BACKGROUND: Investigators have attempted to derive tools that could provide clinicians with an easily obtainable estimate of the chance of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery for those who undertake trial of labor after cesarean delivery. One tool that has been validated externally was derived from data from the Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Cesarean Registry. However, concern has been raised that this tool includes the socially constructed variables of race and ethnicity. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop an accurate tool to predict vaginal birth after cesarean delivery, using data easily obtainable early in pregnancy, without the inclusion of race and ethnicity. STUDY DESIGN: This was a secondary analysis of the Cesarean Registry of the Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network. The approach to the current analysis is similar to that of the analysis in which the previous vaginal birth after cesarean delivery prediction tool was derived. Specifically, individuals were included in this analysis if they were delivered on or after 37 0/7 weeks' gestation with a live singleton cephalic fetus at the time of labor and delivery admission, had a trial of labor after cesarean delivery, and had a history of 1 previous low-transverse cesarean delivery. Information was only considered for inclusion in the model if it was ascertainable at an initial prenatal visit. Model selection and internal validation were performed using a cross-validation procedure, with the dataset randomly and equally divided into a training set and a test set. The training set was used to identify factors associated with vaginal birth after cesarean delivery and build the logistic regression predictive model using stepwise backward elimination. A final model was generated that included all variables found to be significant (P<.05). The accuracy of the model to predict vaginal birth after cesarean delivery was assessed using the concordance index. The independent test set was used to estimate classification errors and validate the model that had been developed from the training set, and calibration was assessed. The final model was then applied to the overall analytical population. RESULTS: Of the 11,687 individuals who met the inclusion criteria for this secondary analysis, 8636 (74%) experienced vaginal birth after cesarean delivery. The backward elimination variable selection yielded a model from the training set that included maternal age, prepregnancy weight, height, indication for previous cesarean delivery, obstetrical history, and chronic hypertension. Vaginal birth after cesarean delivery was significantly more likely for women who were taller and had a previous vaginal birth, particularly if that vaginal birth had occurred after a previous cesarean delivery. Conversely, vaginal birth after cesarean delivery was significantly less likely for women whose age was older, whose weight was heavier, whose indication for previous cesarean delivery was arrest of dilation or descent, and who had a history of medication-treated chronic hypertension. The model had excellent calibration between predicted and empirical probabilities and, when applied to the overall analytical population, an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.77), which is similar to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the previous model (0.75) that included race and ethnicity. CONCLUSION: We successfully derived an accurate model (available at https://mfmunetwork.bsc.gwu.edu/web/mfmunetwork/vaginal-birth-after-cesarean-calculator), which did not include race or ethnicity, for the estimation of the probability of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery.

Maternal and Perinatal Outcomes of Expectant Management of Full-Term, Low-Risk, Nulliparous Patients.

OBJECTIVE: To compare risks of maternal and perinatal outcomes by completed week of gestation from 39 weeks in low-risk nulliparous patients undergoing expectant management. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of a multicenter randomized trial of elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation compared with expectant management in low-risk nulliparous patients. Participants with nonanomalous neonates, who were randomized to and underwent expectant management and attained 39 0/7 weeks of gestation, were included. Delivery gestation was categorized by completed week: 39 0/7-39 6/7 (39 weeks), 40 0/7-40 6/7 (40 weeks), and 41 0/7-42 2/7 (41-42 weeks) (none delivered after 42 2/7). The coprimary outcomes were cesarean delivery and a perinatal composite (death, respiratory support, 5-minute Apgar score 3 or less, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, seizure, sepsis, meconium aspiration syndrome, birth trauma, intracranial or subgaleal hemorrhage, or hypotension requiring vasopressor support). Other outcomes included a maternal composite (blood transfusion, surgical intervention for postpartum hemorrhage, or intensive care unit admission), hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, peripartum infection, and neonatal intermediate or intensive care unit admission. For multivariable analysis, P<.0125 was considered to indicate statistical significance for the coprimary outcomes. RESULTS: Of 2,502 participants who underwent expectant management, 964 (38.5%) delivered at 39 weeks of gestation, 1,111 (44.4%) at 40 weeks, and 427 (17.1%) at 41-42 weeks. The prevalence of medically indicated delivery was 37.9% overall and increased from 23.8% at 39 weeks of gestation to 80.3% at 41-42 weeks. The frequency of cesarean delivery (17.3%, 22.0%, 37.5%; P<.001) and the perinatal composite (5.1%, 5.9%, 8.2%; P=.03) increased with 39, 40, and 41-42 weeks of gestation, respectively, and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy decreased (16.4%, 12.1%, 10.8%, P=.001). The adjusted relative risk, 95% CI (39 weeks as referent) was significant for cesarean delivery at 41-42 weeks of gestation (1.93, 1.61-2.32) and for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy at 40 weeks (0.71, 0.58-0.88) and 41-42 weeks (0.61, 0.45-0.82). None of the other outcomes were significant. CONCLUSION: In expectantly managed low-risk nulliparous participants, the frequency of medically indicated induction of labor, and the risks of cesarean delivery but not the perinatal composite outcome, increased significantly from 39 to 42 weeks of gestation.

Elective Labor Induction at 39 Weeks of Gestation Compared With Expectant Management: Factors Associated With Adverse Outcomes in Low-Risk Nulliparous Women.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate characteristics associated with adverse outcomes in low-risk nulliparous women randomized to elective labor induction at 39 weeks of gestation or expectant management. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of women randomized during the 38th week to induction at 39 weeks of gestation or expectant management. Deliveries before 39 weeks of gestation and those not adherent to study protocol or with fetal anomalies were excluded. A composite of adverse outcomes (perinatal death or severe neonatal complications), third- or fourth-degree lacerations, and postpartum hemorrhage were evaluated. Log binomial regression models estimated relative risks and 95% CIs for associations of outcomes with patient characteristics including randomly assigned treatment group. Interactions between patient characteristics and treatment group were tested. RESULTS: Of 6,096 women with outcome data, 5,007 (82.1%) met criteria for inclusion in this analysis. Frequency of the perinatal composite was 252 (5.0%), 166 (3.3%) for third- or fourth-degree perineal laceration, and 237 (4.7%) for postpartum hemorrhage. In multivariable analysis, intended labor induction at 39 weeks of gestation was associated with a reduced perinatal composite outcome (4.1% vs 6.0%; adjusted relative risk [aRR] 0.71; 95% CI 0.55-0.90), whereas increasing body mass index (BMI) was associated with an increased perinatal composite outcome (aRR 1.04/unit increase; 95% CI 1.02-1.05). Decreased risk of third- or fourth-degree perineal laceration was observed with increasing BMI (aRR 0.96/unit increase; 95% CI 0.93-0.98) and in Black women compared with White women (1.2% vs 3.9%; aRR 0.34; 95% CI 0.19-0.60). Increased risk of postpartum hemorrhage was observed in Hispanic women compared with White women (6.3% vs 4.0%; aRR 1.64; 95% CI 1.18-2.29). Patient characteristics associated with adverse outcomes were similar between treatment groups (P for interaction >.05). CONCLUSION: Compared with expectant management, intended induction at 39 weeks of gestation was associated with reduced risk of adverse perinatal outcome. Patient characteristics associated with adverse outcomes were few and similar between groups. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01990612.

Customized Probability of Vaginal Delivery With Induction of Labor and Expectant Management in Nulliparous Women at 39 Weeks of Gestation.

OBJECTIVE: To develop models to predict vaginal delivery in low-risk, nulliparous women contemplating elective induction of labor or expectant management at 39 weeks of gestation. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial of planned elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation compared with expectant management for low-risk nulliparous women. Two groups were included for this analysis: 1) women who were randomized to the induction of labor group and underwent elective induction at 39 0/7-39 4/7 weeks of gestation and 2) women who were randomized to the expectant management group who experienced spontaneous labor or medically indicated delivery (including postterm). Multivariable logistic regression models were developed for each group using patient characteristics that would be available at the time of counseling. Model selection was based on k-fold cross-validation using backward elimination and variables that remained significant at P<.05 were retained. To compare estimated with observed rates, the elective induction of labor model was then applied to each woman in both groups to estimate individualized predicted probabilities of vaginal delivery with elective induction of labor. RESULTS: Of 6,106 women enrolled in the trial, 4,661 met criteria for this analysis. Vaginal delivery occurred in 80.6% of the 2,153 women in the elective induction of labor group and 77.2% of the 2,508 women in the expectant management group (P=.005). The final elective induction of labor model included age, height, weight, and modified Bishop score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.72, 95% CI 0.70-0.75). The same variables were included in the final expectant management model (AUROC 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.72). Across the range of predicted probability deciles derived from the elective induction of labor model, almost all women who underwent elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation had a higher observed chance of vaginal delivery than expectant management. CONCLUSION: Irrespective of the individual predicted chance of vaginal delivery from elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation, vaginal delivery is generally more frequent if elective induction of labor is undertaken rather than expectant management. These data can be used to counsel nulliparous women regarding their "customized" chances of vaginal delivery as they choose between elective induction of labor or expectant management at 39 weeks of gestation. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01990612.

Neonatal and Maternal Composite Adverse Outcomes Among Low-Risk Nulliparous Women Compared With Multiparous Women at 39-41 Weeks of Gestation.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate whether the frequency of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes differs between low-risk nulliparous and multiparous women at 39-41 weeks of gestation. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of an observational obstetrics cohort of maternal-neonatal dyads at 25 hospitals. Low-risk women with nonanomalous singletons who delivered between 39 0/7 and 41 6/7 weeks of gestation were included. The composite neonatal adverse outcome included 5-minute Apgar score less than five, ventilator support or cardiopulmonary resuscitation, seizure, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, sepsis, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, persistent pulmonary hypertension, necrotizing enterocolitis, birth injury or perinatal death. The composite maternal adverse outcome included infection, third- or fourth-degree perineal laceration, thromboembolism, transfusion of blood products, or maternal death. Small for gestational age (SGA), large for gestational age (LGA), and shoulder dystocia requiring maneuvers were also evaluated. Multivariable regression was used to estimate adjusted relative risks (aRRs) and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Of the 115,502 women in the overall cohort, 39,870 (34.5%) met eligibility criteria for this analysis; 18,245 (45.8%) were nulliparous. The risk of the composite neonatal adverse outcome (1.5% vs 1.0%, aRR 1.80, 95% CI 1.48-2.19), composite maternal adverse outcome (15.1% vs 3.3%, aRR 5.04, 95% CI 4.62-5.49), and SGA (8.9% vs 5.8%, aOR 1.45, 95% CI 1.33-1.57) was significantly higher in nulliparous than multiparous patients. The risk of LGA (aOR 0.65, 95% CI 0.60-0.71) and shoulder dystocia with maneuvers (aRR 0.68, 95% CI 0.60-0.77) was significantly lower in nulliparous rather than multiparous patients. CONCLUSION: The risk of composite adverse outcomes and SGA among low-risk nulliparous women at 39-41 weeks of gestation is significantly higher than among multiparous counterparts. However, nulliparous women had a lower risk of shoulder dystocia with maneuvers and LGA.

Timeliness of childhood vaccinations in Armenia, 2015-2016.

BACKGROUND: Successful control of vaccine preventable diseases not only requires high coverage but also requires that vaccines are administered in a timely manner. Prior studies have examined the timing of vaccinations in Armenia and found that although vaccination coverage is high, children are not receiving the vaccinations in a timely manner. This study aims to further elucidate the timing and associated factors of childhood vaccinations among children in Armenia in 2015-2016. METHODS: Data from the Armenia Demographic and Health Survey (ADHS) from 2015 to 2016 were used to examine the timing of WHO-recommended vaccinations during the first year of life of all living children under three years of age, which included a vaccine against tuberculosis (BCG), three doses of a diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus vaccine (DTP), three doses of a polio vaccine (Pol) and a measles-containing vaccine (MCV). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess age-appropriate receipt of vaccinations. Cox proportional hazards models with a shared gamma frailty to account for clustered sampling were used to determine factorsassociatedwith timely vaccinations. RESULTS: Vaccination coverage was high ranging from 80.6% for the third dose of DTP to 98.4% for BCG, yet the proportion of children with delayed vaccinations increased with each dose in a series, with 51.9% and 48.5% having a delayed receipt of the third doses of DTP and Pol respectively. Factors associated with delayed vaccinations included female gender, certain regions of residence, previously delayed vaccinations, poorer wealth index and lower educational level of mother. There were no differences in timing of vaccinations between clusters. CONCLUSIONS: Although coverage was generally high, a high proportion of children under three in Armenia experienced delays in receiving the recommended vaccinations. Continued focus on adherence to the immunization schedule is necessary to ensure optimal coverage and protection for children in Armenia from vaccine preventable diseases.

Health resource utilization of labor induction versus expectant management.

BACKGROUND: Although induction of labor of low-risk nulliparous women at 39 weeks reduces the risk of cesarean delivery compared with expectant management, concern regarding more frequent use of labor induction remains, given that this intervention historically has been thought to incur greater resource utilization. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to determine whether planned elective labor induction at 39 weeks among low-risk nulliparous women, compared with expectant management, was associated with differences in health care resource utilization from the time of randomization through 8 weeks postpartum. STUDY DESIGN: This is a planned secondary analysis of a multicenter randomized trial in which low-risk nulliparous women were assigned to induction of labor at 39 weeks or expectant management. We assessed resource utilization after randomization in 3 time periods: antepartum, delivery admission, and discharge through 8 weeks postpartum. RESULTS: Of 6096 women with data available, those in the induction of labor group (n = 3059) were significantly less likely in the antepartum period after randomization to have at least 1 ambulatory visit for routine prenatal care (32.4% vs 68.4%), unanticipated care (0.5% vs 2.6%), or urgent care (16.2% vs 44.3%), or at least 1 antepartum hospitalization (0.8% vs 2.2%, P < .001 for all). They also had fewer tests (eg, sonograms, blood tests) and treatments (eg, antibiotics, intravenous hydration) prior to delivery. During the delivery admission, women in the induction of labor group spent a longer time in labor and delivery (median, 0.83 vs 0.57 days), but both women (P = .002) and their neonates (P < .001) had shorter postpartum stays. Women and neonates in both groups had similar frequencies of postpartum urgent care and hospital readmissions (P > .05 for all). CONCLUSION: Women randomized to induction of labor had longer durations in labor and delivery but significantly fewer antepartum visits, tests, and treatments and shorter maternal and neonatal hospital durations after delivery. These results demonstrate that the health outcome advantages associated with induction of labor are gained without incurring uniformly greater health care resource use.

Effect of Treatment of Mild Gestational Diabetes on Long-Term Maternal Outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: The main purpose of this article is to evaluate whether identification and treatment of women with mild gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) during pregnancy affects subsequent maternal body mass index (BMI), anthropometry, metabolic syndrome, and risk of diabetes. STUDY DESIGN: This is a follow-up study of women who participated in a randomized controlled treatment trial for mild GDM. Women were enrolled between 5 and 10 years after their index pregnancy. Participants underwent blood pressure, height, weight, and anthropometric measurements by trained nursing personnel using a standardized approach. A nurse-assisted questionnaire regarding screening and treatment of diabetes or hypercholesterolemia, diet, and physical activity was completed. Laboratory evaluation included fasting serum glucose, fasting insulin, oral glucose tolerance test, and a lipid panel. Subsequent diabetes, metabolic syndrome, obesity, and adiposity in those diagnosed with mild GDM and randomized to nutritional counseling and medical therapy (treated) were compared with those who underwent routine pregnancy management (untreated). Multivariable analyses were performed adjusting for race/ethnicity and years between randomization and follow-up visit. RESULTS: Four-hundred fifty-seven women with mild GDM during the index pregnancy were included in this analysis (243 treated; 214 untreated) and evaluated at a median 7 years after their index pregnancy. Baseline and follow-up characteristics were similar between treatment groups. Frequency of diabetes (9.2 vs. 8.5%, p =0.80), metabolic syndrome (32.2 vs. 34.3%, p =0.63), as well as adjusted mean values of homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (2.5 vs. 2.3, p =0.11) and BMI (29.4 vs. 29.1 kg/m2, p =0.67) were also not different. CONCLUSION: Identification and treatment of women with mild GDM during pregnancy had no discernible impact on subsequent diabetes, metabolic syndrome, or obesity 7 years after delivery.

Mediation of the association of smoking and microvascular complications by glycemic control in type 1 diabetes.

Studies have demonstrated the adverse effects of smoking on the risk of microvascular complications; however, few have also examined the potential mediating effects of glycemic control. Using data from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT 1983-1993), we describe the acute and long-term risks of smoking on glycemic control and microvascular complications in a well-characterized cohort of participants with type 1 diabetes. The DCCT recorded self-reported smoking behaviors, glycemic exposure based on HbA1c, and complications status. Generalized linear mixed models were used to assess whether time-dependent measurements of smoking predict HbA1c levels. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess time-dependent smoking exposures as predictors of retinopathy and nephropathy. During a mean of 6.5 years of follow-up, current smokers had consistently higher HbA1c values and were at a higher risk of retinopathy and nephropathy compared with former and never smokers. These risk differences were attenuated after adjusting for HbA1c suggesting that the negative association of smoking on glycemic control is partially responsible for the adverse association of smoking on the risk of complications in type 1 diabetes. These findings support the potential for a beneficial effect of smoking cessation on complications in type 1 diabetes.

Incidence of early-onset sepsis in infants born to women with clinical chorioamnionitis.

Objective To determine the frequency of sepsis and other adverse neonatal outcomes in women with a clinical diagnosis of chorioamnionitis. Methods We performed a secondary analysis of a multi-center placebo-controlled trial of vitamins C/E to prevent preeclampsia in low risk nulliparous women. Clinical chorioamnionitis was defined as either the "clinical diagnosis" of chorioamnionitis or antibiotic administration during labor because of an elevated temperature or uterine tenderness in the absence of another cause. Early-onset neonatal sepsis was categorized as "suspected" or "confirmed" based on a clinical diagnosis with negative or positive blood, urine or cerebral spinal fluid cultures, respectively, within 72 h of birth. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by logistic regression. Results Data from 9391 mother-infant pairs were analyzed. The frequency of chorioamnionitis was 10.3%. Overall, 6.6% of the neonates were diagnosed with confirmed (0.2%) or suspected (6.4%) early-onset sepsis. Only 0.7% of infants born in the setting of chorioamnionitis had culture-proven early-onset sepsis versus 0.1% if chorioamnionitis was not present. Clinical chorioamnionitis was associated with both suspected [OR 4.01 (3.16-5.08)] and confirmed [OR 4.93 (1.65-14.74)] early-onset neonatal sepsis, a need for resuscitation within the first 30 min after birth [OR 2.10 (1.70-2.61)], respiratory distress [OR 3.14 (2.16-4.56)], 1 min Apgar score of ≤3 [OR 2.69 (2.01-3.60)] and 4-7 [OR 1.71 (1.43-2.04)] and 5 min Apgar score of 4-7 [OR 1.67 (1.17-2.37)] (vs. 8-10). Conclusion Clinical chorioamnionitis is common and is associated with neonatal morbidities. However, the vast majority of exposed infants (99.3%) do not have confirmed early-onset sepsis.

Pregnancy-Associated Hypertension and Offspring Cardiometabolic Health.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether pregnancy-associated hypertension (gestational hypertension and preeclampsia) was associated with the cardiometabolic health of young offspring. METHODS: This was a prospective observational follow-up study from 2012 to 2013 of children born to women previously enrolled in a mild gestational diabetes mellitus treatment trial or nongestational diabetes mellitus observational study. At 5-10 years after birth, children were examined and fasting blood samples obtained to determine the following cardiometabolic risk factors: blood pressure (BP), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance, waist circumference, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: This analysis included 979 children evaluated at a median 7 years of age. Twenty-three (2%) were born preterm from a hypertensive pregnancy, 73 (7%) were born at term from a hypertensive pregnancy, 58 (6%) were born preterm from a normotensive pregnancy, and 825 (84%) were born at term from a normotensive pregnancy (reference group). After adjusting for confounding factors, mean adjusted systolic BP was significantly higher in the children who were born at term to mothers who experienced pregnancy-associated hypertension compared with those born at term to normotensive mothers (systolic BP of 104 mm Hg, 95% CI 101-106 vs systolic BP of 99 mm Hg, 95% CI 99-100, P=.001). No other significant differences were observed. CONCLUSION: Pregnancy-associated hypertension in women who deliver at term was associated with higher systolic BP in the offspring, but not with their measures of diastolic BP, BMI, waist circumference, homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance, glucose, or lipids. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00069576.