Warming signals in temperate reef communities following more than a decade of ecological stability.

Ecosystem structure and function are increasingly threatened by changing climate, with profound effects observed globally in recent decades. Based on standardized visual censuses of reef biodiversity, we describe 27 years of community-level change for fishes, mobile macroinvertebrates and macroalgae in the Tasmanian ocean-warming hotspot. Significant ecological change was observed across 94 reef sites (5-10 m depth range) spanning four coastal regions between three periods (1992-95, 2006-07, 2017-19), which occurred against a background of pronounced sea temperature rise (+0.80°C on average). Overall, fish biomass increased, macroinvertebrate species richness and abundance decreased and macroalgal cover decreased, particularly during the most recent decade. While reef communities were relatively stable and warming was slight between the 1990s and mid-2000s (+0.12°C mean temperature rise), increased abundances of warm affinity fishes and invertebrates accompanied warming during the most recent decade (+0.68°C rise). However, significant rises in the community temperature index (CTI) were only found for fishes, invertebrates and macroalgae in some regions. Coastal warming was associated with increased fish biomass of non-targeted species in fished zones but had little effect on reef communities within marine reserves. Higher abundances of larger fishes and lobsters inside reserves appeared to negate impacts of 'thermophilization'.

Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.