Development of a Risk Prediction Model for Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae Infection After Liver Transplantation: A Multinational Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Patients colonized with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are at higher risk of developing CRE infection after liver transplantation (LT), with associated high morbidity and mortality. Prediction model for CRE infection after LT among carriers could be useful to target preventive strategies. METHODS: Multinational multicenter cohort study of consecutive adult patients underwent LT and colonized with CRE before or after LT, from January 2010 to December 2017. Risk factors for CRE infection were analyzed by univariate analysis and by Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model, with death as competing event. A nomogram to predict 30- and 60-day CRE infection risk was created. RESULTS: A total of 840 LT recipients found to be colonized with CRE before (n = 203) or after (n = 637) LT were enrolled. CRE infection was diagnosed in 250 (29.7%) patients within 19 (interquartile range [IQR], 9-42) days after LT. Pre- and post-LT colonization, multisite post-LT colonization, prolonged mechanical ventilation, acute renal injury, and surgical reintervention were retained in the prediction model. Median 30- and 60-day predicted risk was 15% (IQR, 11-24) and 21% (IQR, 15-33), respectively. Discrimination and prediction accuracy for CRE infection was acceptable on derivation (area under the curve [AUC], 74.6; Brier index, 16.3) and bootstrapped validation dataset (AUC, 73.9; Brier index, 16.6). Decision-curve analysis suggested net benefit of model-directed intervention over default strategies (treat all, treat none) when CRE infection probability exceeded 10%. The risk prediction model is freely available as mobile application at https://idbologna.shinyapps.io/CREPostOLTPredictionModel/. CONCLUSIONS: Our clinical prediction tool could enable better targeting interventions for CRE infection after transplant.

Epidemiology of Invasive Pulmonary Aspergillosis Among Intubated Patients With COVID-19: A Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the incidence of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis among intubated patients with critical COVID-19 and evaluated different case definitions of invasive aspergillosis. METHODS: Prospective, multicenter study in adult patients with microbiologically confirmed COVID-19 receiving mechanical ventilation. All included participants underwent a screening protocol for invasive pulmonary aspergillosis with bronchoalveolar lavage galactomannan and cultures performed on admission at 7 days and in case of clinical deterioration. Cases were classified as coronavirus-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) according to previous consensus definitions. The new definition was compared with putative invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (PIPA). RESULTS: 108 patients were enrolled. Probable CAPA was diagnosed in 30 (27.7%) patients after a median of 4 (2-8) days from intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Kaplan-Meier curves showed a significantly higher 30-day mortality rate from ICU admission among patients with either CAPA (44% vs 19%, P = .002) or PIPA (74% vs 26%, P < .001) when compared with patients not fulfilling criteria for aspergillosis. The association between CAPA (OR, 3.53; 95% CI, 1.29-9.67; P = .014) or PIPA (OR, 11.60; 95% CI, 3.24-41.29; P < .001) with 30-day mortality from ICU admission was confirmed, even after adjustment for confounders with a logistic regression model. Among patients with CAPA receiving voriconazole treatment (13 patients; 43%) a trend toward lower mortality (46% vs 59%; P = .30) and reduction in galactomannan index in consecutive samples were observed. CONCLUSIONS: We found a high incidence of CAPA among critically ill COVID-19 patients and its occurrence seems to change the natural course of disease.

Efficacy of corticosteroid treatment for hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19: a multicentre study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of corticosteroids in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: A multicentre observational study was performed from 22 February through 30 June 2020. We included consecutive adult patients with severe COVID-19, defined as respiratory rate ≥30 breath per minute, oxygen saturation ≤93% on ambient air or arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen ≤300 mm Hg. We excluded patients being treated with other immunomodulant drugs, receiving low-dose corticosteroids and receiving corticosteroids 72 hours after admission. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality from hospital admission. The main exposure variable was corticosteroid therapy at a dose of ≥0.5 mg/kg of prednisone equivalents. It was introduced as binomial covariate in a logistic regression model for the primary endpoint and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score. RESULTS: Of 1717 patients with COVID-19 evaluated, 513 were included in the study, and of these, 170 (33%) were treated with corticosteroids. During hospitalization, 166 patients (34%) met the criteria of the primary outcome (60/170, 35% in the corticosteroid group and 106/343, 31% in the noncorticosteroid group). At multivariable analysis corticosteroid treatment was not associated with lower 30-day mortality rate (adjusted odds ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.20-1.74; p 0.33). After inverse probability of treatment weighting, corticosteroids were not associated with lower 30-day mortality (average treatment effect, 0.05; 95% CI, -0.02 to 0.09; p 0.12). However, subgroup analysis revealed that in patients with PO2/FiO2 < 200 mm Hg at admission (135 patients, 52 (38%) treated with corticosteroids), corticosteroid treatment was associated with a lower risk of 30-day mortality (23/52, 44% vs. 45/83, 54%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.04-0.90; p 0.036). CONCLUSIONS: The effect of corticosteroid treatment on mortality might be limited to critically ill COVID-19 patients.