Exhaustive TORCH Pathogen Diagnostics Corroborate Zika Virus Etiology of Congenital Malformations in Northeastern Brazil.

The Latin American 2015-2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak was associated with an increase in microcephaly predominantly in northeastern Brazil. To comparatively investigate infectious causes of congenital malformations, we performed a nested case-control study in 32 mothers of cases of suspected congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) and 160 age-matched controls from Bahia, northeastern Brazil. We collected clinical and imaging data and assessed past exposure to ZIKV, Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), dengue virus, and 8 established TORCH (Toxoplasma gondii, Treponema pallidum, rubella virus, cytomegalovirus, herpes simplex virus 1 [HSV-1] and HSV-2, varicella-zoster virus, parvovirus B19) pathogens using multiple serological tests. Heterogeneous symptoms prevented unequivocal diagnosis of CZS on clinical grounds. Only ZIKV and CHIKV seroprevalence rates differed significantly between cases and controls (93.8% versus 67.8% for ZIKV [Fisher's exact text, P = 0.002] and 20.7% versus 8.2% for CHIKV [χ2, P = 0.039]). High ZIKV seroprevalence rates in cases could not be explained by previous dengue virus infections potentially eliciting cross-reactive antibody responses affecting ZIKV serological tests. In conditional logistic regression analyses, only ZIKV was significantly associated with congenital malformations (P = 0.030; odds ratio, 4.0 [95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 14.1]). Our data support an association between maternal ZIKV exposure and congenital malformations. Parallels between the discrepant ZIKV and CHIKV seroprevalence rates between cases and controls and similar seroprevalence rates between cases and controls for the sexually transmitted T. pallidum and HSV-2 may suggest the occurrence of predominantly vector-borne transmission in our study population. High seroprevalence of TORCH pathogens suggests that exhaustive diagnostics will be necessary in the aftermath of the ZIKV outbreak and provides baseline data for longitudinal studies on ZIKV pathogenesis.IMPORTANCE The Latin American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak had a major impact on reproductive health worldwide. The reasons for the massively increased reports of neonatal microcephaly in northeastern Brazil are still unclear. Beyond the technical limitations of laboratory diagnostics, unambiguous diagnosis of ZIKV as the cause of congenital malformations is hampered by similar clinical pictures elicited by other pathogens known as TORCH pathogens. We performed a case-control study comparing mothers of children with congenital malformations to age-matched controls from Salvador, Brazil, one of the areas most extensively affected by the ZIKV outbreak. The ZIKV and Chikungunya virus seroprevalence rates differed significantly, whereas the levels of maternal exposure to TORCH pathogens were similar between cases and controls. Our data support a link between maternal ZIKV infection and congenital malformations and suggest the occurrence of predominantly vector-borne ZIKV transmission in these cases. In addition, some highly prevalent TORCH pathogens may be misinterpreted as representative of ongoing ZIKV activity in the absence of exhaustive diagnostics in northeastern Brazil.

High Zika Virus Seroprevalence in Salvador, Northeastern Brazil Limits the Potential for Further Outbreaks.

During 2015 to 2016, Brazil reported more Zika virus (ZIKV) cases than any other country, yet population exposure remains unknown. Serological studies of ZIKV are hampered by cross-reactive immune responses against heterologous viruses. We conducted serosurveys for ZIKV, dengue virus (DENV), and Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in 633 individuals prospectively sampled during 2015 to 2016, including microcephaly and non-microcephaly pregnancies, HIV-infected patients, tuberculosis patients, and university staff in Salvador in northeastern Brazil using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) and plaque reduction neutralization tests. Sera sampled retrospectively during 2013 to 2015 from 277 HIV-infected patients were used to assess the spread of ZIKV over time. Individuals were georeferenced, and sociodemographic indicators were compared between ZIKV-positive and -negative areas and areas with and without microcephaly cases. Epidemiological key parameters were modeled in a Bayesian framework. ZIKV seroprevalence increased rapidly during 2015 to 2016, reaching 63.3% by 2016 (95% confidence interval [CI], 59.4 to 66.8%), comparable to the seroprevalence of DENV (75.7%; CI, 69.4 to 81.1%) and higher than that of CHIKV (7.4%; CI, 5.6 to 9.8%). Of 19 microcephaly pregnancies, 94.7% showed ZIKV IgG antibodies, compared to 69.3% of 257 non-microcephaly pregnancies (P = 0.017). Analyses of sociodemographic data revealed a higher ZIKV burden in low socioeconomic status (SES) areas. High seroprevalence, combined with case data dynamics allowed estimates of the basic reproduction number R0 of 2.1 (CI, 1.8 to 2.5) at the onset of the outbreak and an effective reproductive number Reff of <1 in subsequent years. Our data corroborate ZIKV-associated congenital disease and an association of low SES and ZIKV infection and suggest that population immunity caused cessation of the outbreak. Similar studies from other areas will be required to determine the fate of the American ZIKV outbreak.IMPORTANCE The ongoing American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak involves millions of cases and has a major impact on maternal and child health. Knowledge of infection rates is crucial to project future epidemic patterns and determine the absolute risk of microcephaly upon maternal ZIKV infection during pregnancy. For unknown reasons, the vast majority of ZIKV-associated microcephaly cases are concentrated in northeastern Brazil. We analyzed different subpopulations from Salvador, a Brazilian metropolis representing one of the most affected areas during the American ZIKV outbreak. We demonstrate rapid spread of ZIKV in Salvador, Brazil, and infection rates exceeding 60%. We provide evidence for the link between ZIKV and microcephaly, report that ZIKV predominantly affects geographic areas with low socioeconomic status, and show that population immunity likely caused cessation of the outbreak. Our results enable stakeholders to identify target populations for vaccination and for trials on vaccine efficacy and allow refocusing of research efforts and intervention strategies.