Effects of maternal calcium supplementation on offspring blood pressure and growth in childhood and adolescence in a population with a low-calcium intake: follow-up study of a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends calcium supplementation (1500-2000 mg/d) during pregnancy for women with a low-calcium intake. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate whether pregnancy calcium supplementation affects offspring blood pressure and growth in The Gambia where calcium intakes are low (300-400 mg/d). METHODS: Follow-up of offspring born during a randomized controlled trial of pregnancy calcium supplementation (ISRCTN96502494, 1996-2000) in which mothers were randomly assigned to 1500 mg Ca/d (Ca) or placebo (P) from 20 wk pregnancy to delivery. Offspring were enrolled at age 3 y in studies where blood pressure and anthropometry were measured under standardized conditions at approximately 2-yearly intervals. Mean blood pressure and growth curves were fitted for females and males separately, using the longitudinal SuperImposition by Translation and Rotation (SITAR) mixed effects model. This generates 3 individual-specific random effects: size, timing, and intensity, reflecting differences in size, age at peak velocity, and peak velocity through puberty relative to the mean curve, respectively. RESULTS: Five hundred twenty-three singleton infants were born during the trial (maternal group assignment: Ca/P = 259/264). Four hundred ninety-one were enrolled as children (females: F-Ca/F-P = 122/129 and males: M-Ca/M-P = 119/121) and measured regularly from 3.0 y to mean age 18.4 y; 90% were measured on ≥8 occasions. SITAR revealed differences in the systolic blood pressure and height curves between pregnancy supplement groups in females, but not in males. F-Ca had lower systolic blood pressure than F-P at all ages (size = -2.1 ± SE 0.8 mmHg; P = 0.005) and lower peak height velocity (intensity = -2.9 ± SE 1.1%, P = 0.009). No significant pregnancy supplement effects were seen for other measures. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed, in female offspring, that pregnancy calcium supplementation may lower systolic blood pressure and slow linear growth in childhood and adolescence, adding to evidence of offspring sexual dimorphism in responses to maternal supplementation. Further research is warranted on the long-term and intergenerational effects of antenatal supplementations. This trial was registered at ISRCTN Registry as ISRCTN96502494.

Efficacy of early PET-CT directed switch to carboplatin and paclitaxel based definitive chemoradiotherapy in patients with oesophageal cancer who have a poor early response to induction cisplatin and capecitabine in the UK: a multi-centre randomised controlled phase II trial.

Background: The utility of early metabolic response assessment to guide selection of the systemic component of definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT) for oesophageal cancer is uncertain. Methods: In this multi-centre, randomised, open-label, phase II substudy of the radiotherapy dose-escalation SCOPE2 trial we evaluated the role of 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) at day 14 of cycle 1 of three-weekly induction cis/cap (cisplatin (60 mg/m2)/capecitabine (625 mg/m2 days 1-21)) in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) or adenocarcinoma (OAC). Non-responders, who had a less than 35% reduction in maximum standardised uptake value (SUVmax) from pre-treatment baseline, were randomly assigned to continue cis/cap or switch to car/pac (carboplatin AUC 5/paclitaxel 175 mg/m2) for a further induction cycle, then concurrently with radiotherapy over 25 fractions. Responders continued cis/cap for the duration of treatment. All patients (including responders) were randomised to standard (50Gy) or high (60Gy) dose radiation as part of the main study. Primary endpoint for the substudy was treatment failure-free survival (TFFS) at week 24. The trial was registered with International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number 97125464 and ClinicalTrials.govNCT02741856. Findings: This substudy was closed on 1st August 2021 by the Independent Data Monitoring Committee on the grounds of futility and possible harm. To this point from 22nd November 2016, 103 patients from 16 UK centres had participated in the PET-CT substudy; 63 (61.2%; 52/83 OSCC, 11/20 OAC) of whom were non-responders. Of these, 31 were randomised to car/pac and 32 to remain on cis/cap. All patients were followed up until at least 24 weeks, at which point in OSCC both TFFS (25/27 (92.6%) vs 17/25 (68%); p = 0.028) and overall survival (42.5 vs. 20.4 months, adjusted HR 0.36; p = 0.018) favoured cis/cap over car/pac. There was a trend towards worse survival in OSCC + OAC cis/cap responders (33.6 months; 95%CI 23.1-nr) vs. non-responders (42.5 (95%CI 27.0-nr) months; HR = 1.43; 95%CI 0.67-3.08; p = 0.35). Interpretation: In OSCC, early metabolic response assessment is not prognostic for TFFS or overall survival and should not be used to personalise systemic therapy in patients receiving dCRT. Funding: Cancer Research UK.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on domiciliary care workers in Wales, UK: a data linkage cohort study using the SAIL Databank.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify population health risks for domiciliary care workers (DCWs) in Wales, UK, working during the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: A population-level retrospective study linking occupational registration data to anonymised electronic health records maintained by the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in a privacy-protecting trusted research environment. SETTING: Registered DCW population in Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Records for all linked DCWs from 1 March 2020 to 30 November 2021. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Our primary outcome was confirmed COVID-19 infection; secondary outcomes included contacts for suspected COVID-19, mental health including self-harm, fit notes, respiratory infections not necessarily recorded as COVID-19, deaths involving COVID-19 and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Confirmed and suspected COVID-19 infection rates increased over the study period to 24% by 30 November 2021. Confirmed COVID-19 varied by sex (males: 19% vs females: 24%) and age (>55 years: 19% vs <35 years: 26%) and were higher for care workers employed by local authority social services departments compared with the private sector (27% and 23%, respectively). 34% of DCWs required support for a mental health condition, with mental health-related prescribing increasing in frequency when compared with the prepandemic period. Events for self-harm increased from 0.2% to 0.4% over the study period as did the issuing of fit notes. There was no evidence to suggest a miscoding of COVID-19 infection with non-COVID-19 respiratory conditions. COVID-19-related and all-cause mortality were no greater than for the general population aged 15-64 years in Wales (0.1% and 0.034%, respectively). A comparable DCW workforce in Scotland and England would result in a comparable rate of COVID-19 infection, while the younger workforce in Northern Ireland may result in a greater infection rate. CONCLUSIONS: While initial concerns about excess mortality are alleviated, the substantial pre-existing and increased mental health burden for DCWs will require investment to provide long-term support to the sector's workforce.

Biomarker-guided duration of antibiotic treatment in children hospitalised with confirmed or suspected bacterial infection: statistical analysis plan for the BATCH trial and PRECISE sub-study.

INTRODUCTION: The BATCH trial is a multi-centre randomised controlled trial to compare procalcitonin-guided management of severe bacterial infection in children with current management. PRECISE is a mechanistic sub-study embedded into the BATCH trial. This paper describes the statistical analysis plan for the BATCH trial and PRECISE sub-study. METHODS: The BATCH trial will assess the effectiveness of an additional procalcitonin test in children (aged 72 h to 18 years) hospitalised with suspected or confirmed bacterial infection to guide antimicrobial prescribing decisions. Participants will be enrolled in the trial from randomisation until day 28 follow-up. The co-primary outcomes are duration of intravenous antibiotic use and a composite safety outcome. Target sample size is 1942 patients, based on detecting a 1-day reduction in intravenous antibiotic use (90% power, two-sided) and on a non-inferiority margin of 5% risk difference in the composite safety outcome (90% power, one-sided), while allowing for up to 10% loss to follow-up. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics will be summarised overall, by trial arm, and by whether patients were recruited before or after the pause in recruitment due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the primary analysis, duration of intravenous antibiotic use will be tested for superiority using Cox regression, and the composite safety outcome will be tested for non-inferiority using logistic regression. The intervention will be judged successful if it reduces the duration of intravenous antibiotic use without compromising safety. Secondary analyses will include sensitivity analyses, pre-specified subgroup analyses, and analysis of secondary outcomes. Two sub-studies, including PRECISE, involve additional pre-specified subgroup analyses. All analyses will be adjusted for the balancing factors used in the randomisation, namely centre and patient age. CONCLUSION: We describe the statistical analysis plan for the BATCH trial and PRECISE sub-study, including definitions of clinical outcomes, reporting guidelines, statistical principles, and analysis methods. The trial uses a design with co-primary superiority and non-inferiority endpoints. The analysis plan has been written prior to the completion of follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION: BATCH: ISRCTN11369832, registered 20 September 2017, doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN11369832. PRECISE: ISRCTN14945050, registered 17 December 2020, doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN14945050.

Pregnancy-Related Change in pQCT and Bone Biochemistry in a Population With a Habitually Low Calcium Intake.

In pregnancy, changes in maternal calcium (Ca) economy occur to satisfy fetal Ca demand. It is unclear whether maternal mineral reserves facilitate these requirements and no data exist from sub-Saharan Africa. The aim was to determine skeletal changes with peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) and bone biochemistry between early second and third trimesters. Pregnant rural Gambians aged 18 to 45 years (n = 467) participating in a trial of antenatal nutritional supplements (ISRCTN49285450) had pQCT scans and blood collections at mean (SD) 14 (3) and 31 (1) weeks' gestation. Outcomes were pQCT: radius/tibia 4% total volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD), trabecular vBMD, total cross-sectional area (CSA), 33%/38% radius/tibia cortical vBMD, bone mineral content (BMC), total CSA; biochemistry: collagen type 1 cross-linked ß-C-telopeptide (ß-CTX), type 1 procollagen N-terminal (P1NP), parathyroid hormone (PTH), and 1,25(OH)2 D. Independent t tests tested whether pooled or within-group changes differed from 0. Multiple regression was performed adjusting for age. Data for change are expressed as mean (confidence interval [CI] 2.5, 97.5%). Radius trabecular vBMD, cortical vBMD, and BMC increased by 1.15 (0.55, 1.75)%, 0.41 (0.24, 0.58)%, and 0.47 (0.25, 0.69)%. Tibia total and trabecular vBMD increased by 0.34 (0.15, 0.54)% and 0.46 (0.17, 0.74)%, while tibia cortical vBMD, BMC, and cortical CSA increased by 0.35 (0.26, 0.44)%, 0.55 (0.41, 0.68)% and 0.20 (0.09, 0.31)%, respectively. CTX, PTH, and 1,25(OH)2 D increased by 23.0 (15.09, 29.29)%, 13.2 (8.44, 19.34)%, and 21.0 (17.67, 24.29)%, while P1NP decreased by 32.4 (-37.19, -28.17)%. No evidence of mobilization was observed in the peripheral skeleton. Resorption, although higher in late versus early gestation, was lower throughout pregnancy compared with non-pregnant non-lactating (NPNL) in the same community. Formation was lower in late pregnancy than in early, and below NPNL levels. This suggests a shift in the ratio of resorption to formation. Despite some evidence of change in bone metabolism, in this population, with habitually low Ca intakes, the peripheral skeleton was not mobilized as a Ca source for the fetus. © 2021 crown copyright . Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR). The article published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer of Scotland..

Establishing the impact of COVID-19 on the health outcomes of domiciliary care workers in Wales using routine data: a protocol for the OSCAR study.

INTRODUCTION: Domiciliary care workers (DCWs) continued providing social care to adults in their own homes throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 on health outcomes of DCWs is currently mixed, probably reflecting methodological limitations of existing studies. The risk of COVID-19 to workers providing care in people's homes remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: To quantify the impact of COVID-19 upon health outcomes of DCWs in Wales, to explore causes of variation, and to extrapolate to the rest of the UK DCW population. METHODS: Mixed methods design comprising cohort study of DCWs and exploratory qualitative interviews. Data for all registered DCWs in Wales is available via the SAIL Databank using a secured, privacy-protecting encrypted anonymisation process. Occupational registration data for DCWs working during the pandemic will be combined with EHR outcome data within the SAIL Databank including clinical codes that identify suspected and confirmed COVID-19 cases. We will report rates of suspected and confirmed COVID-19 infections and key health outcomes including mortality and explore variation (by factors such as age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation quintile, rurality, employer, comorbidities) using regression modelling, adjusting for clustering of outcome within Health Board, region and employer. A maximum variation sample of Welsh DCWs will be approached for qualitative interview using a strategy to include participants that vary across factors such as sex, age, ethnicity and employer. The interviews will inform the quantitative analysis modelling. We will generalise the quantitative findings to other UK nations. DISCUSSION: Using anonymised linked occupational and EHR data and qualitative interviews, the OSCAR study will quantify the risk of COVID-19 on DCWs' health and explore sources of variation. This will provide a secure base for informing public health policy and occupational guidance.

The relationship between wasting and stunting: a retrospective cohort analysis of longitudinal data in Gambian children from 1976 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: The etiologic relationship between wasting and stunting is poorly understood, largely because of a lack of high-quality longitudinal data from children at risk of undernutrition. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to describe the interrelationships between wasting and stunting in children aged <2 y. METHODS: This study involved a retrospective cohort analysis, based on growth-monitoring records spanning 4 decades from clinics in rural Gambia. Anthropometric data collected at scheduled infant welfare clinics were converted to z scores, comprising 64,342 observations on 5160 subjects (median: 12 observations per individual). Children were defined as "wasted" if they had a weight-for-length z score <-2 against the WHO reference and "stunted" if they had a length-for-age z score <-2. RESULTS: Levels of wasting and stunting were high in this population, peaking at approximately (girls-boys) 12-18% at 10-12 months (wasted) and 37-39% at 24 mo of age (stunted). Infants born at the start of the annual wet season (July-October) showed early growth faltering in weight-for-length z score, putting them at increased risk of subsequent stunting. Using time-lagged observations, being wasted was predictive of stunting (OR: 3.2; 95% CI: 2.7, 3.9), even after accounting for current stunting. Boys were more likely to be wasted, stunted, and concurrently wasted and stunted than girls, as well as being more susceptible to seasonally driven growth deficits. CONCLUSIONS: We provide evidence that stunting is in part a biological response to previous episodes of being wasted. This finding suggests that stunting may represent a deleterious form of adaptation to more overt undernutrition (wasting). This is important from a policy perspective as it suggests we are failing to recognize the importance of wasting simply because it tends to be more acute and treatable. These data suggest that stunted children are not just short children but are children who earlier were more seriously malnourished and who are survivors of a composite process.

Children who are both wasted and stunted are also underweight and have a high risk of death: a descriptive epidemiology of multiple anthropometric deficits using data from 51 countries.

BACKGROUND: Wasting and stunting are common. They are implicated in the deaths of almost two million children each year and account for over 12% of disability-adjusted life years lost in young children. Wasting and stunting tend to be addressed as separate issues despite evidence of common causality and the fact that children may suffer simultaneously from both conditions (WaSt). Questions remain regarding the risks associated with WaSt, which children are most affected, and how best to reach them. METHODS: A database of cross-sectional survey datasets containing data for almost 1.8 million children was compiled. This was analysed to determine the intersection between sets of wasted, stunted, and underweight children; the association between being wasted and being stunted; the severity of wasting and stunting in WaSt children; the prevalence of WaSt by age and sex, and to identify weight-for-age z-score and mid-upper arm circumference thresholds for detecting cases of WaSt. An additional analysis of the WHO Growth Standards sought the maximum possible weight-for-age z-score for WaSt children. RESULTS: All children who were simultaneously wasted and stunted were also underweight. The maximum possible weight-for-age z-score in these children was below - 2.35. Low WHZ and low HAZ have a joint effect on WAZ which varies with age and sex. WaSt and "multiple anthropometric deficits" (i.e. being simultaneously wasted, stunted, and underweight) are identical conditions. The conditions of being wasted and being stunted are positively associated with each other. WaSt cases have more severe wasting than wasted only cases. WaSt cases have more severe stunting than stunted only cases. WaSt is largely a disease of younger children and of males. Cases of WaSt can be detected with excellent sensitivity and good specificity using weight-for-age. CONCLUSIONS: The category "multiple anthropometric deficits" can be abandoned in favour of WaSt. Therapeutic feeding programs should cover WaSt cases given the high mortality risk associated with this condition. Work on treatment effectiveness, duration of treatment, and relapse after cure for WaSt cases should be undertaken. Routine reporting of the prevalence of WaSt should be encouraged. Further work on the aetiology, prevention, case-finding, and treatment of WaSt cases as well as the extent to which current interventions are reaching WaSt cases is required.

Ethnic Differences in Peripheral Skeletal Development Among Urban South African Adolescents: A Ten-Year Longitudinal pQCT Study.

There are no longitudinal pQCT data of bone growth and development from sub-Saharan Africa, where rapid environmental, societal, and economic transitions are occurring, and where fracture rates are predicted to rise. The aim of this study was to compare skeletal development in black and white South African adolescents using longitudinal data from the Birth to Twenty study. The Birth to Twenty Bone Health subcohort consisted of 543 adolescents (261 [178 black] girls, 282 [201 black] boys). Annual pQCT measurements of the radial and tibial metaphysis and diaphysis were obtained between ages 12 and 22 years (distal metaphysis: cross-sectional area [CSA] and trabecular bone mineral density [BMD]; diaphysis: total and cortical CSA, cortical BMD, and polar stress-strain index [SSIp]). Age at peak height velocity (APHV) was calculated to account for differences in maturational timing between ethnic groups and sexes. Mixed-effects models were used to describe trajectories for each pQCT outcome. Likelihood-ratio tests were used to summarize the overall difference in trajectories between black and white participants within each sex. APHV (mean ± SD years) was similar in black (11.8 ± 0.8) and white (12.2 ± 1.0) girls, but delayed in black (14.2 ± 1.0) relative to white boys (13.3 ± 0.8). By 4 years post-APHV, white adolescents had significantly greater cortical CSA and SSIp than black adolescents at the radius. There were no significant differences at the radial metaphysis but there was some divergence, such that black adolescents had greater radial trabecular BMD by the end of follow-up. At the tibia, white adolescents had lower diaphyseal CSA and SSIp, and greater metaphyseal CSA. There was no ethnic difference in tibial trabecular BMD. There are ethnic differences in bone growth and development, independent of maturation, in South African adolescents. This work gives new insights into the possible etiology of childhood fractures, which occur most commonly as peripheral sites. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.