Trajectories in long-term condition accumulation and mortality in older adults: a group-based trajectory modelling approach using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

OBJECTIVES: To classify older adults into clusters based on accumulating long-term conditions (LTC) as trajectories, characterise clusters and quantify their associations with all-cause mortality. DESIGN: We conducted a longitudinal study using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing over 9 years (n=15 091 aged 50 years and older). Group-based trajectory modelling was used to classify people into clusters based on accumulating LTC over time. Derived clusters were used to quantify the associations between trajectory memberships, sociodemographic characteristics and all-cause mortality by conducting regression models. RESULTS: Five distinct clusters of accumulating LTC trajectories were identified and characterised as: 'no LTC' (18.57%), 'single LTC' (31.21%), 'evolving multimorbidity' (25.82%), 'moderate multimorbidity' (17.12%) and 'high multimorbidity' (7.27%). Increasing age was consistently associated with a larger number of LTCs. Ethnic minorities (adjusted OR=2.04; 95% CI 1.40 to 3.00) were associated with the 'high multimorbidity' cluster. Higher education and paid employment were associated with a lower likelihood of progression over time towards an increased number of LTCs. All the clusters had higher all-cause mortality than the 'no LTC' cluster. CONCLUSIONS: The development of multimorbidity in the number of conditions over time follows distinct trajectories. These are determined by non-modifiable (age, ethnicity) and modifiable factors (education and employment). Stratifying risk through clustering will enable practitioners to identify older adults with a higher likelihood of worsening LTC over time to tailor effective interventions to prevent mortality.

Perceptions and experiences of living with and providing care for multimorbidity: A qualitative interview study.

Background: Experiences of living with and seeking care for multimorbidity is a relatively under-researched field. By analysing experiences of people with multimorbidity, caregivers and care professionals, we can better understand the complex care needs of those with multimorbidity and identify improvements to care management. This paper reports findings from research that elicited the views of key stakeholders to inform future care practice and policy. Aim: To elicit care recipient and care provider views to understand the care needs of those living with and seeking care for multimorbidity. Method: A qualitative interview study using purposive sampling of those living with and providing care in multimorbidity. Results: Increased support to those with multimorbidity and caregivers to navigate care systems was advocated. Establishing trusting care relationships featured prominently in participants accounts. Fragmented care, inadequate coordination and poor communication between care providers, were identified as system-wide challenges. There was agreement that integrated care models were needed, which delivered personalised care, such as shared decision-making, choice in care options and accessing services, and individualised care plans. Conclusion: We found significant agreement among stakeholders on care need and management in multimorbidity. Understanding the experiences of those with multimorbidity, caregivers and care professionals, can inform future improvements in care management.

Multiple long-term conditions, loneliness and social isolation: A scoping review of recent quantitative studies.

BACKGROUND: Multiple long-term conditions (MLTC), loneliness and social isolation are common in older adults. Recent studies have explored the association of MLTC with loneliness and social isolation. This scoping review aimed to map this current evidence and identify gaps in the literature. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted following the PRISMA guidelines for scoping reviews. Ovid Medline, Embase, CINAHL, The Cochrane Library, PsycInfo, and Bielefeld Academic Search Engine were searched for studies published between January 2020-April 2023. Quantitative studies, published in any language, that assessed the association of MLTC with loneliness and/or social isolation were included. RESULTS: 1827 records were identified and screened. Of these, 17 met inclusion criteria. Most studies were cross-sectional and based on older adults. Studies were conducted in Europe, the US, Canada, and low- and middle-income countries. Ten studies focused on the association between MLTC and loneliness, six assessed the association between MLTC and social isolation and one examined associations with both loneliness and social isolation. Most studies reported a significant cross-sectional association of MLTC with loneliness, but there was weaker evidence for a longitudinal association between MLTC and loneliness and an association between MLTC and social isolation. Studies were heterogenous in terms of measures and definitions of loneliness/social isolation and MLTC, confounders adjusted for, and analytical models used, making comparisons difficult. CONCLUSIONS: Further population-based longitudinal studies using consistent measures and methodological approaches are needed to improve understanding of the association of MLTC with both loneliness and social isolation.

The association between stress and multiple long-term conditions: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Stress is an important predictor of long-term conditions. We examine whether hair cortisol (a biomarker of stress) is associated with incidence and accumulation of multiple long-term conditions (MLTC). METHODS: We included data from 4295 individuals aged ≥50 years within the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing dataset with data on hair cortisol, sociodemographic and health behaviour variables. Cox proportional hazards models were used to quantify the association between hair cortisol at baseline and accumulation of MLTC between 2012/2013 and 2018/2019, both for individuals with and without MLTC at baseline. RESULTS: Our cohort included 1458 (34.0%) individuals who accumulated MLTC between 2012/2013 and 2018/2019. The proportion of individuals with zero, 1, and ≥ 2 conditions at baseline who accumulated MLTC were 12.0% (n = 127), 40.4% (n = 520), and 41.7% (n = 811), respectively. Higher cortisol levels were associated with higher risk of accumulation of MLTC in both unadjusted [HR:1.15(1.05-1.25)] and models adjusted for sociodemographic and health behaviours [HR:1.12(1.02-1.22)]. For individuals without MLTC at baseline, higher cortisol levels were significantly associated with higher risk of developing MLTC in unadjusted [HR: 1.20(1.05-1.36)] and adjusted models [HR: 1.16(1.02-1.32)]. CONCLUSION: The study provides the first evidence of the role of stress in the development and accumulation of MLTC. This modifiable risk factor could be targeted to reduce the risk of MLTC. However, further work is needed to better understand the mechanisms and pathways that link stress and accumulation of MLTC.

Factors associated with multimorbidity in England: an analysis of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, defined as the presence of two or more long-term conditions, is a growing public health challenge, especially in terms of prevention and accumulation of long-term conditions among particular population cohorts. To date, efforts to understand multimorbidity has focused mainly on specific disease combinations, with little known about the sociodemographic factors associated with it. The study aimed to assess the factors associated with multimorbidity in England. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), a dataset of people aged 50 years and older. The study identified ten long-term conditions from waves 2 to 9. Wave 2 to 9 were conducted between June 2004 to July 2005, May 2006 to August 2007, May 2008 to July 2009, June 2010 to July 2011, May 2012 to June 2013, June 2014 to May 2015, May 2016 to June 2017 and June 2018 to July 2019, respectively. The study included people with two or more long-term conditions. We identified the number of long-term conditions and multimorbidity, and we examined their association with age, gender, ethnicity, marital status, employment status, education, weekly contact with relative, and feeling lonely, sad or depressed using multinomial logistic regression. FINDINGS: Of 16 731 people recruited from wave 2 to wave 9, we identified 10 026 people with multimorbidity aged 50 years and older. The majority had two conditions (39%) and were female (55%), aged 50-69 years (32%), of white ethnicity (96%), married (69%) and unemployed (65·3%). The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of having more than two long-term conditions increased with age, after adjusting for sex and ethnicity (≥5 conditions: aOR 12·89, 95% CI 2·23-3·76). Being female was associated with an increased risk of having more than two long-term conditions (≥5 conditions: aOR 1·21, 1·04-1·42). Similarly, being separated, divorced, or widowed were associated with having more than two long-term conditions (≥5 conditions: aOR 1·45, 1·21-1·74). Not owning a home was independently associated with more than two long-term conditions (≥5 conditions: aOR 1·59, 1·35-1·88). INTERPRETATION: The current analysis used only ten long-term conditions that were available in the ELSA data, so a different association might have arisen if other conditions had been considered. Our findings provide insights into which particular groups of the multimorbid population could be the target of preventive public health strategies and wider clinical and social care interventions in England to reduce the burden of multimorbidity. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).

Eliciting and prioritising determinants of improved care in multimorbidity: A modified online Delphi study.

Background: Multimorbidity is a major challenge to health and social care systems around the world. There is limited research exploring the wider contextual determinants that are important to improving care for this cohort. In this study, we aimed to elicit and prioritise determinants of improved care in people with multiple conditions. Methods: A three-round online Delphi study was conducted in England with health and social care professionals, data scientists, researchers, people living with multimorbidity and their carers. Results: Our findings suggest a care system which is still predominantly single condition focused. 'Person-centred and holistic care' and 'coordinated and joined up care', were highly rated determinants in relation to improved care for multimorbidity. We further identified a range of non-medical determinants that are important to providing holistic care for this cohort. Conclusions: Further progress towards a holistic and patient-centred model is needed to ensure that care more effectively addresses the complex range of medical and non-medical needs of people living with multimorbidity. This requires a move from a single condition focused biomedical model to a person-based biopsychosocial approach, which has yet to be achieved.

Clustering by multiple long-term conditions and social care needs: a cross-sectional study among 10 026 older adults in England.

BACKGROUND   : People with multiple long-term conditions (MLTC) face health and social care challenges. This study aimed to classify people by MLTC and social care needs (SCN) into distinct clusters and quantify the association between derived clusters and care outcomes. METHODS : A cross-sectional study was conducted using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, including people with up to 10 MLTC. Self-reported SCN was assessed through 13 measures of difficulty with activities of daily living, 10 measures of mobility difficulties and whether health status was limiting earning capability. Latent class analysis was performed to identify clusters. Multivariable logistic regression quantified associations between derived MLTC/SCN clusters, all-cause mortality and nursing home admission. RESULTS: Our study included 9171 people at baseline with a mean age of 66.3 years; 44.5% were men. Nearly 70.8% had two or more MLTC, the most frequent being hypertension, arthritis and cardiovascular disease. We identified five distinct clusters classified as high SCN/MLTC through to low SCN/MLTC clusters. The high SCN/MLTC included mainly women aged 70-79 years who were white and educated to the upper secondary level. This cluster was significantly associated with higher nursing home admission (OR=8.71; 95% CI: 4.22 to 18). We found no association between clusters and all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We have highlighted those at risk of worse care outcomes, including nursing home admission. Distinct clusters of individuals with shared sociodemographic characteristics can help identify at-risk individuals with MLTC and SCN at primary care level.

Trajectories of multiple long-term conditions and mortality in older adults: A retrospective cohort study using English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA).

Objectives: To classify older adults with MLTC into clusters based on accumulating conditions as trajectories over time, characterise clusters and quantify associations between derived clusters and all-cause mortality. Design: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) over nine years (n=15,091 aged 50 years and older). Group-based trajectory modelling was used to classify people into MLTC clusters based on accumulating conditions over time. Derived clusters were used to quantify the associations between MLTC trajectory memberships, sociodemographic characteristics, and all-cause mortality. Results: Five distinct clusters of MLTC trajectories were identified and characterised as: "no-LTC" (18.57%), "single-LTC" (31.21%), "evolving MLTC" (25.82%), "moderate MLTC" (17.12%), and "high MLTC" (7.27%). Increasing age was consistently associated with an increased number of MLTC. Female sex (aOR = 1.13; 95%CI 1.01 to 1.27) and ethnic minority (aOR = 2.04; 95%CI 1.40 to 3.00) were associated with the "moderate MLTC" and "high MLTC" clusters, respectively. Higher education and paid employment were associated with a lower likelihood of progression over time towards an increased number of MLTC. All the clusters had higher all-cause mortality than the "no-LTC" cluster. Conclusions: The development of MLTC and the increase in the number of conditions over time follow distinct trajectories. These are determined by non-modifiable (age, sex, ethnicity) and modifiable factors (education and employment). Stratifying risk through clustering will enable practitioners to identify older adults with a higher likelihood of worsening MLTC over time to tailor effective interventions.

A typology of integrated care policies in the care home sector: A policy document analysis.

Background: Health and social care systems in many countries have begun to trial and adopt "integrated" approaches. Yet, the significant role care homes play within the health and social care system is often understated. A key first step to identifying the care home integration interventions that are most (cost-)effective is the ability to precisely identify and record what has been implemented, where, and when-a "policy map." Methods: To address gaps relating to the identification and recording of (cost-)effective integrated care home interventions, we developed a new typology tool. We conducted a policy mapping exercise in a devolved region of England-Greater Manchester (GM). Specifically, we carried out systematic policy documentary searches and extracted a range of qualitative data relating to integrated health and social care initiatives in the GM region for care homes. The data were then classified according to existing national ambitions for England as well as a generic health systems framework to illustrate gaps in existing recording tools and to iteratively develop a novel approach. Results: A combined total of 124 policy documents were identified and screened, in which 131 specific care home integration initiatives were identified. Current initiatives emphasized monitoring quality in care homes, workforce training, and service delivery changes (such as multi-disciplinary teams). There was comparatively little emphasis on financing or other incentive changes to stimulate provider behavior for the care home setting. We present a novel typology for capturing and comparing care home integration policy initiatives, largely conceptualizing which part of the system or specific transition point the care home integration is targeting, or whether there is a broader cross-cutting system intervention being enacted, such as digital or financial interventions. Conclusions: Our typology builds on the gaps in current frameworks, including previous lack of specificity to care homes and lack of adaptability to new and evolving initiatives internationally. It could provide a useful tool for policymakers to identify gaps in the implementation of initiatives within their own areas, while also allowing researchers to evaluate what works most effectively and efficiently in future research based on a comprehensive policy map.

Multiple Long-Term Conditions (MLTC) and the Environment: A Scoping Review.

Background: Multiple Long Term conditions (MLTC) are a major health care challenge associated with high service utilisation and expenditure. Once established, the trajectory to an increased number and severity of conditions, hospital admission, increased social care need and mortality is multifactorial. The role of wider environmental determinants in the MLTC sequelae is unclear. Aim: the aim of this review was to summarise and collate existing evidence on environmental determinants on established MLTC. Methods: comprehensive search of Medline, Embase, Cochrane, CINAHL and Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE), from inception to 4th June 2022 in addition to grey literature. Two authors independently screened and extracted papers. Disagreements were resolved with a third author. Results: searches yielded 9079 articles, 12 of which met the review's inclusion criteria. Evidence of correlations between some environmental determinants and increased or decreased risks of MLTC were found, including the quality of internal housing/living environments, exposure to airborne environmental hazards and a beneficial association with socially cohesive, accessible and greener neighbourhood environments. Conclusions: The majority of the 12 included papers focused on the built and social environments. The review uncovered very limited evidence, indicating a need for further research to understand the role of environmental determinants in MLTC.

Understanding social care need through primary care big data: a rapid scoping review.

BACKGROUND: A more comprehensive understanding and measurement of adult social care need could contribute to efforts to develop more effective, holistic personalised care, particularly for those with multiple long-term conditions (MLTC). Progress in this area faces the challenge of a lack of clarity in the literature relating to how social care need is assessed and coded within variables included in primary care databases. AIM: To explore how social care need is assessed and coded within variables included in primary care databases. DESIGN & SETTING: An exploratory rapid scoping review of peer-reviewed articles and grey literature. METHOD: Articles were screened and extracted onto a charting sheet and findings were summarised descriptively. Articles were included if published in English and related to primary and social care using data from national primary care databases. RESULTS: The search yielded 4010 articles. Twenty-seven were included. Six articles used the term 'social care need', although related terminology was identified including 'need factors', 'social support', and 'social care support'. Articles mainly focused on specific components of social care need, including levels of social care usage or service utilisation and costs incurred to social care, primary care, and other providers in addressing needs. A limited range of database variables were found measuring social care need. CONCLUSION: Further research is needed on how social care need has been defined in a UK context and captured in primary care big databases. There is potential scope to broaden the definition of social care need, which captures social service needs and wider social needs.

Development and Validation of Population Clusters for Integrating Health and Social Care: Protocol for a Mixed Methods Study in Multiple Long-Term Conditions (Cluster-Artificial Intelligence for Multiple Long-Term Conditions).

BACKGROUND: Multiple long-term health conditions (multimorbidity) (MLTC-M) are increasingly prevalent and associated with high rates of morbidity, mortality, and health care expenditure. Strategies to address this have primarily focused on the biological aspects of disease, but MLTC-M also result from and are associated with additional psychosocial, economic, and environmental barriers. A shift toward more personalized, holistic, and integrated care could be effective. This could be made more efficient by identifying groups of populations based on their health and social needs. In turn, these will contribute to evidence-based solutions supporting delivery of interventions tailored to address the needs pertinent to each cluster. Evidence is needed on how to generate clusters based on health and social needs and quantify the impact of clusters on long-term health and costs. OBJECTIVE: We intend to develop and validate population clusters that consider determinants of health and social care needs for people with MLTC-M using data-driven machine learning (ML) methods compared to expert-driven approaches within primary care national databases, followed by evaluation of cluster trajectories and their association with health outcomes and costs. METHODS: The mixed methods program of work with parallel work streams include the following: (1) qualitative semistructured interview studies exploring patient, caregiver, and professional views on clinical and socioeconomic factors influencing experiences of living with or seeking care in MLTC-M; (2) modified Delphi with relevant stakeholders to generate variables on health and social (wider) determinants and to examine the feasibility of including these variables within existing primary care databases; and (3) cohort study with expert-driven segmentation, alongside data-driven algorithms. Outputs will be compared, clusters characterized, and trajectories over time examined to quantify associations with mortality, additional long-term conditions, worsening frailty, disease severity, and 10-year health and social care costs. RESULTS: The study will commence in October 2021 and is expected to be completed by October 2023. CONCLUSIONS: By studying MLTC-M clusters, we will assess how more personalized care can be developed, how accurate costs can be provided, and how to better understand the personal and medical profiles and environment of individuals within each cluster. Integrated care that considers "whole persons" and their environment is essential in addressing the complex, diverse, and individual needs of people living with MLTC-M. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/34405.

Integrated primary care and social services for older adults with multimorbidity in England: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: As the prevalence of older adults with multimorbidity increases, greater integration of services is necessary to manage the physical and psycho-social needs of this cohort. This study describes and summarises current evidence, clinical provision and progress towards integrated primary care and social services for older adults with multimorbidity in England. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted involving systematic searches of a range of electronic academic and policy databases. Articles were screened and extracted in duplicate by two independent reviewers. Data were extracted onto a charting sheet and thematic synthesis was used to summarise findings. Articles were included if published in English and related to primary care, social care and multimorbidity in older adults in England. Conceptually, the review was framed using the Rainbow Model of Integrated Care. RESULTS: The search yielded 7656 articles of which 84 were included. Three themes were identified: (1) a focus on individual level services rather than multi-level or multi-sector integration, with an increasing emphasis on the need to consider broader determinants of population health as critical to integrated care for older adults with multimorbidity; (2) the need for policymakers to allow time for integration to embed, to enable new structures and relationships to develop and mature; and (3) the inherent tension between top-down and bottom-up driven approaches to integrated care requires a whole-systems structure, while allowing for local flexibilities. CONCLUSIONS: There is limited evidence of multi-level and multi-sector integration of services for older adults with multimorbidity in England. The literature increasingly acknowledges wider determinants of population health that are likely to require integration beyond primary care and social services. Improving clinical care in one or two sectors may not be as effective as simultaneously improving the organisation or design across services as one single system of provision. This may take time to establish and will require local input.

Integrating primary care and social services for older adults with multimorbidity: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Growing demand from an increasingly ageing population with multimorbidity has resulted in complex health and social care needs requiring more integrated services. Integrating primary care with social services could utilise resources more efficiently, and improve experiences for patients, their families, and carers. There is limited evidence on progress including key barriers to and drivers of integration to inform large-scale national change. AIM: To elicit stakeholder views on drivers and barriers of integrated primary care and social services, and highlight opportunities for successful implementation. DESIGN AND SETTING: A qualitative interview study. METHOD: Semi-structured interviews with maximum variation sampling to capture stakeholder views across services and professions. RESULTS: Thirty-seven interviews were conducted across England with people including GPs, nurses, social care staff, commissioners, local government officials, voluntary and private sector workers, patients, and carers. Drivers of integration included groups of like-minded individuals supported by good leadership, expanded interface roles to bridge gaps between systems, and co-location of services. Barriers included structural and interdisciplinary tension between professions, organisational self-interest, and challenges in record sharing. CONCLUSION: Drivers and barriers to integration identified in other contexts are also present in primary care and social services. Benefits of integration are unlikely to be realised if these are not addressed in the design and execution of new initiatives. Efforts should go beyond local- and professional-level change to include wider systems- and policy-level initiatives. This will support a more systems-wide approach to integrated care reform, which is necessary to meet the complex and growing needs of an ageing multimorbid population.

Effects of arterial blood pressure on rebleeding using Celox and TraumaDEX in a porcine model of lethal femoral injury.

This study was designed to identify the systolic blood pressure (SBP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) at which rebleeding occurs when a clot is formed by a hemostatic agent, Celox or TraumaDEX, compared with a standard dressing. Fifteen pigs (5 each) were assigned randomly to 1 of 3 groups: Celox, TraumaDEX, or standard pressure dressing as a control. In all animals, the femoral artery and vein were transected to simulate traumatic injury. Subjects were allowed to hemorrhage 1 minute before treatment. Direct pressure was held 5 minutes followed by application of elastic dressings for 30 minutes. Dressings were removed after 30 minutes, and the wound was observed for rebleeding. Animals demonstrating hemostasis received phenylephrine infusion to increase SBP in 10-mm Hg increments until SBP reached 210 mm Hg or hemorrhage recurred. There were statistically significant differences between Celox (mean SBP, 166.4 mm Hg; mean MAP, 1376 mm Hg) and the control (mean SBP, 88.25 mm Hg; mean MAP, 59.7 mm Hg), and between TraumaDEX (mean SBP, 152.2 mm Hg; mean MAP, 113.2 mm Hg) and the control (P < .05). However, no statistically significant difference existed between Celox and TraumaDEX. Celox and TraumaDEX effectively prevent rebleeding compared with standard dressing.

Effects of Celox and TraumaDEX on hemorrhage control in a porcine model.

The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness of 2 hemostatic agents, chitosan-based Celox and the biopolymeric, microporous particles TraumaDEX, with a control group in a porcine model of hemorrhage. The animals were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 groups: Celox (n = 5), TraumaDEX (n = 5), or a standard pressure dressing alone (n = 5). To simulate a battlefield injury, the investigators generated a compound groin injury with transection of the femoral artery and vein in 15 pigs. After 1 minute of uncontrolled hemorrhage, Celox or TraumaDEX was poured into the wound, followed by standard wound packing. The control group underwent the same procedures with the exception of the hemostatic agents. In all groups, 5 minutes of direct manual pressure was applied to the wound, followed by a standard pressure dressing (3M Coban). After 30 minutes, dressings were removed, and the amount of bleeding was measured. There were statistically significant differences in bleeding between Celox and control (P = .01) and between TraumaDEX and control (P = .038), but no statistically significant difference in bleeding between Celox and TraumaDEX (P = .478). Celox and TraumaDEX may be effective hemostatic agents for use in civilian and military trauma.