Proportion and number of cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in the United States, 2019.

In 2018, the authors reported estimates of the number and proportion of cancers attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in 2014 in the United States. These data are useful for advocating for and informing cancer prevention and control. Herein, based on up-to-date relative risk and cancer occurrence data, the authors estimated the proportion and number of invasive cancer cases (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and deaths, overall and for 30 cancer types among adults who were aged 30 years and older in 2019 in the United States, that were attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors. These included cigarette smoking; second-hand smoke; excess body weight; alcohol consumption; consumption of red and processed meat; low consumption of fruits and vegetables, dietary fiber, and dietary calcium; physical inactivity; ultraviolet radiation; and seven carcinogenic infections. Numbers of cancer cases and deaths were obtained from data sources with complete national coverage, risk factor prevalence estimates from nationally representative surveys, and associated relative risks of cancer from published large-scale pooled or meta-analyses. In 2019, an estimated 40.0% (713,340 of 1,781,649) of all incident cancers (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and 44.0% (262,120 of 595,737) of all cancer deaths in adults aged 30 years and older in the United States were attributable to the evaluated risk factors. Cigarette smoking was the leading risk factor contributing to cancer cases and deaths overall (19.3% and 28.5%, respectively), followed by excess body weight (7.6% and 7.3%, respectively), and alcohol consumption (5.4% and 4.1%, respectively). For 19 of 30 evaluated cancer types, more than one half of the cancer cases and deaths were attributable to the potentially modifiable risk factors considered in this study. Lung cancer had the highest number of cancer cases (201,660) and deaths (122,740) attributable to evaluated risk factors, followed by female breast cancer (83,840 cases), skin melanoma (82,710), and colorectal cancer (78,440) for attributable cases and by colorectal (25,800 deaths), liver (14,720), and esophageal (13,600) cancer for attributable deaths. Large numbers of cancer cases and deaths in the United States are attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors, underscoring the potential to substantially reduce the cancer burden through broad and equitable implementation of preventive initiatives.

Stage at diagnosis and survival among adult patients with cancer in Rwanda: A population-based study.

There are marked disparities in cancer survival in low-income countries compared to high-income countries, yet population-based data in the first is largely lacking. In this study, data from the national cancer registry of Rwanda were examined for 542 patients diagnosed with eight of the most common cancers of adults stomach (C16), colorectum (C18-20), liver (C22), breast (female) (C50), cervix (C53), ovary (C56), prostate (C61), and non-Hodgkin lymphomas (C82-85) between 2014 and 2017. Subjects were randomly selected for active followed-up to calculate 1-, 3-, and 5-year observed and relative survival (RS) by cancer type and stage. Overall, 53.7% of cases had died within 5 years of diagnosis. Five-year RS varied by malignancy and ranged from 17.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.7%-32.6%) for liver cancer to 68% (CI: 51.6%-79.8%) for cancers of the prostate. Stage was assigned for 71.6% of patients (n = 388 of 542), with over half (58%) having advanced stage (III/IV) at diagnosis. For all except liver and ovary, stage was a strong predictor of survival; for example, three-year observed survival was 90.9% and 44.8% (p-value: .002) for early and advanced breast cancer, respectively. This study demonstrates that stage specific survival can be obtained from population based cancer registries in sub Saharan Africa, data that are invaluable for international benchmarking, and for local planning and evaluation of cancer control programs.

Global review of COVID-19 mitigation strategies and their impact on cancer service disruptions.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, countries adopted mitigation strategies to reduce disruptions to cancer services. We reviewed their implementation across health system functions and their impact on cancer diagnosis and care during the pandemic. A systematic search was performed using terms related to cancer and COVID-19. Included studies reported on individuals with cancer or cancer care services, focusing on strategies/programs aimed to reduce delays and disruptions. Extracted data were grouped into four functions (governance, financing, service delivery, and resource generation) and sub-functions of the health system performance assessment framework. We included 30 studies from 16 countries involving 192,233 patients with cancer. Multiple mitigation approaches were implemented, predominantly affecting sub-functions of service delivery to control COVID-19 infection via the suspension of non-urgent cancer care, modified treatment guidelines, and increased telemedicine use in routine cancer care delivery. Resource generation was mainly ensured through adequate workforce supply. However, less emphasis on monitoring or assessing the effectiveness and financing of these strategies was observed. Seventeen studies suggested improved service uptake after mitigation implementation, yet the resulting impact on cancer diagnosis and care has not been established. This review emphasizes the importance of developing effective mitigation strategies across all health system (sub)functions to minimize cancer care service disruptions during crises. Deficiencies were observed in health service delivery (to ensure equity), governance (to monitor and evaluate the implementation of mitigation strategies), and financing. In the wake of future emergencies, implementation research studies that include pre-prepared protocols will be essential to assess mitigation impact across cancer care services.

Prevalence of childhood cancer survivors in Europe: a scoping review.

Childhood cancer survivors (CCS) require specialized follow-up throughout their lifespan to prevent or manage late effects of cancer treatment. Knowing the size and structure of the population of CCS is crucial to plan interventions. In this scoping review we reviewed studies that reported prevalence of CCS in Europe. We searched Medline, Web of Science, and Embase using permutations of terms referring to childhood, cancer, survivors, prevalence, registries, and Europe. We followed PRISMA-ScR guidelines to select studies and The Joanna Briggs Institute Prevalence Critical Appraisal Tool to evaluate their quality. From 979 unique studies published between 1989 and 2022, 12 were included. Limited-duration prevalence (LDP) for all childhood cancers, assessed in three studies using counting method, varied between 450 and 1240 persons per million. Complete prevalence (CP) of survivors of any childhood cancer except skin carcinomas, reported in three studies using observed data complemented with modelled data for the unobserved period, varied between 730 and 1110 persons per million. CP of survivors of an embryonal tumour was estimated by completeness index method in six studies. In four of them CP ranged from 48 to 95 persons per million for all embryonal tumours, while CP for those occurring in central nervous system was 43 per million in one study and CP for rhabdomyosarcoma was 17 per million in another. Information on prevalence of CCS in Europe is fragmented and inconsistent. The large variations in LDP and CP estimates were linked to differences in data availability, the selection of populations, prevalence measure, statistical method, incidence period, index date, age at diagnosis and prevalence, cancer types, sex, and, for LDP, also the length of follow-up. Standardisation of methodology and reporting are needed to systematically monitor and compare CCS prevalence in Europe and provide data to help address survivors' needs.

Cancer survival in sub-Saharan Africa (SURVCAN-3): a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The Cancer Survival in Africa, Asia, and South America project (SURVCAN-3) of the International Agency for Research on Cancer aims to fill gaps in the availability of population-level cancer survival estimates from countries in these regions. Here, we analysed survival for 18 cancers using data from member registries of the African Cancer Registry Network across 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We included data on patients diagnosed with 18 cancer types between Jan 1, 2005, and Dec 31, 2014, from 13 population-based cancer registries in Cotonou (Benin), Abidjan (CÔte d'Ivoire), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Eldoret and Nairobi (Kenya), Bamako (Mali), Mauritius, Namibia, Seychelles, Eastern Cape (South Africa), Kampala (Uganda), and Bulawayo and Harare (Zimbabwe). Patients were followed up until Dec 31, 2018. Patient-level data including cancer topography and morphology, age and date at diagnosis, vital status, and date of death (if applicable) were collected. The follow-up (survival) time was measured from the date of incidence until the date of last contact, the date of death, or until the end of the study, whichever occurred first. We estimated the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival (observed, net, and age-standardised net survival) by sex, cancer type, registry, country, and human development index (HDI). 1-year and 3-year survival data were available for all registries and all cancer sites, whereas availability of 5-year survival data was slightly more variable; thus to provide medium-term survival prospects, we have focused on 3-year survival in the Results section. FINDINGS: 10 500 individuals from 13 population-based cancer registries in 11 countries were included in the survival analyses. 9177 (87·4%) of 10 500 cases were morphologically verified. Survival from cancers with a high burden and amenable to prevention was poor: the 3-year age-standardised net survival was 52·3% (95% CI 49·4-55·0) for cervical cancer, 18·1% (11·5-25·9) for liver cancer, and 32·4% (27·5-37·3) for lung cancer. Less than half of the included patients were alive 3 years after a cancer diagnosis for eight cancer types (oral cavity, oesophagus, stomach, larynx, lung, liver, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and leukaemia). There were differences in survival for some cancers by sex: survival was longer for females with stomach or lung cancer than males with stomach or lung cancer, and longer for males with non-Hodgkin lymphomas than females with non-Hodgkin lymphomas. Survival did not differ by country-level HDI for cancers of the oral cavity, oesophagus, liver, thyroid, and for Hodgkin lymphoma. INTERPRETATION: For cancers for which population-level prevention strategies exist, and with relatively poor prognosis, these estimates highlight the urgent need to upscale population-level prevention activities in sub-Saharan Africa. These data are vital for providing the knowledge base for advocacy to improve access to prevention, diagnosis, and care for patients with cancers in sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: Vital Strategies, the Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. TRANSLATIONS: For the French and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

The every woman study™ low- and middle-income countries edition protocol: A multi-country observational study to assess opportunities and challenges to improving survival and quality of life for women with ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer is a challenging disease to diagnose and treat effectively with five-year survival rates below 50%. Previous patient experience research in high-income countries highlighted common challenges and opportunities to improve survival and quality of life for women affected by ovarian cancer. However, no comparable data exist for low-and middle-income countries, where 70% of women with the disease live. This study aims to address this evidence gap. METHODS: This is an observational multi-country study set in low- and middle-income countries. We aim to recruit over 2000 women diagnosed with ovarian cancer across multiple hospitals in 24 countries in Asia, Africa and South America. Country sample sizes have been calculated (n = 70-96 participants /country), taking account of varying national five-year disease prevalence rates. Women within five years of their diagnosis, who are in contact with participating hospitals, are invited to take part in the study. A questionnaire has been adapted from a tool previously used in high-income countries. It comprises 57 multiple choice and two open-ended questions designed to collect information on demographics, women's knowledge of ovarian cancer, route to diagnosis, access to treatments, surgery and genetic testing, support needs, the impact of the disease on women and their families, and their priorities for action. The questionnaire has been designed in English, translated into local languages and tested according to local ethics requirements. Questionnaires will be administered by a trained member of the clinical team. CONCLUSION: This study will inform further research, advocacy, and action in low- and middle-income countries based on tailored approaches to the national, regional and global challenges and opportunities. In addition, participating countries can choose to repeat the study to track progress and the protocol can be adapted for other countries and other diseases.

Stage at diagnosis and survival by stage for the leading childhood cancers in Rwanda.

BACKGROUND: The lack of accurate population-based information on childhood cancer stage and survival in low-income countries is a barrier to improving childhood cancer outcomes. METHODS: In this study, data from the Rwanda National Cancer Registry (RNCR) were examined for children aged 0-14 diagnosed in 2013-2017 for the eight most commonly occurring childhood cancers: acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), Burkitt lymphoma (BL), non-Hodgkin lymphoma excluding BL, retinoblastoma, Wilms tumour, osteosarcoma and rhabdomyosarcoma. Utilising the Toronto Childhood Cancer Stage Guidelines Tier 1, the study assigned stage at diagnosis to all, except HL, and conducted active follow-ups to calculate 1-, 3- and 5-year observed and relative survival by cancer type and stage at diagnosis. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 412 children, of whom 49% (n = 202) died within 5 years of diagnosis. Five-year survival ranged from 28% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.5%-45.6%) for BL to 68% (CI: 55%-78%) for retinoblastoma. For the cancers for which staging was carried out, it was assigned for 83% patients (n = 301 of 362), with over half (58%) having limited or localised stage at diagnosis. Stage was a strong predictor of survival; for example, 3-year survival was 70% (95% CI: 45.1%-85.3%) and 11.8% (2.0%-31.2%) for limited and advanced non-HL, respectively (p < .001). CONCLUSION: This study is only the second to report on stage distribution and stage-specific survival for childhood cancers in sub-Saharan Africa. It demonstrates the feasibility of the Toronto Stage Guidelines in a low-resource setting, and highlights the value of population-based cancer registries in aiding our understanding of the poor outcomes experienced by this population.

Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries.

This article presents global cancer statistics by world region for the year 2022 based on updated estimates from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). There were close to 20 million new cases of cancer in the year 2022 (including nonmelanoma skin cancers [NMSCs]) alongside 9.7 million deaths from cancer (including NMSC). The estimates suggest that approximately one in five men or women develop cancer in a lifetime, whereas around one in nine men and one in 12 women die from it. Lung cancer was the most frequently diagnosed cancer in 2022, responsible for almost 2.5 million new cases, or one in eight cancers worldwide (12.4% of all cancers globally), followed by cancers of the female breast (11.6%), colorectum (9.6%), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (4.9%). Lung cancer was also the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18.7%), followed by colorectal (9.3%), liver (7.8%), female breast (6.9%), and stomach (6.8%) cancers. Breast cancer and lung cancer were the most frequent cancers in women and men, respectively (both cases and deaths). Incidence rates (including NMSC) varied from four-fold to five-fold across world regions, from over 500 in Australia/New Zealand (507.9 per 100,000) to under 100 in Western Africa (97.1 per 100,000) among men, and from over 400 in Australia/New Zealand (410.5 per 100,000) to close to 100 in South-Central Asia (103.3 per 100,000) among women. The authors examine the geographic variability across 20 world regions for the 10 leading cancer types, discussing recent trends, the underlying determinants, and the prospects for global cancer prevention and control. With demographics-based predictions indicating that the number of new cases of cancer will reach 35 million by 2050, investments in prevention, including the targeting of key risk factors for cancer (including smoking, overweight and obesity, and infection), could avert millions of future cancer diagnoses and save many lives worldwide, bringing huge economic as well as societal dividends to countries over the forthcoming decades.

Global Stage Distribution of Breast Cancer at Diagnosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Stage at diagnosis is a key prognostic factor for cancer survival. Objective: To assess the global distribution of breast cancer stage by country, age group, calendar period, and socioeconomic status using population-based data. Data Sources: A systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science databases and registry websites and gray literature was conducted for articles or reports published between January 1, 2000, and June 20, 2022. Study Selection: Reports on stage at diagnosis for individuals with primary breast cancer (C50) from a population-based cancer registry were included. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Study characteristics and results of eligible studies were independently extracted by 2 pairs of reviewers (J.D.B.F., A.D.A., A.M., R.S., and F.G.). Stage-specific proportions were extracted and cancer registry data quality and risk of bias were assessed. National pooled estimates were calculated for subnational or annual data sets using a hierarchical rule of the most relevant and high-quality data to avoid duplicates. Main Outcomes and Measures: The proportion of women with breast cancer by (TNM Classification of Malignant Tumors or the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program [SEER]) stage group. Results: Data were available for 2.4 million women with breast cancer from 81 countries. Globally, the proportion of cases with distant metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis was high in sub-Saharan Africa, ranging from 5.6% to 30.6% and low in North America ranging from 0.0% to 6.0%. The proportion of patients diagnosed with distant metastatic disease decreased over the past 2 decades from around 3.8% to 35.8% (early 2000s) to 3.2% to 11.6% (2015 onwards), yet stabilization or slight increases were also observed. Older age and lower socioeconomic status had the largest proportion of cases diagnosed with distant metastatic stage ranging from 2.0% to 15.7% among the younger to 4.1% to 33.9% among the oldest age group, and from 1.7% to 8.3% in the least disadvantaged groups to 2.8% to 11.4% in the most disadvantaged groups. Conclusions and Relevance: Effective policy and interventions have resulted in decreased proportions of women diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis in high-income countries, yet inequality persists, which needs to be addressed through increased awareness of breast cancer symptoms and early detection. Improving global coverage and quality of population-based cancer registries, including the collection of standardized stage data, is key to monitoring progress.

Gains in life expectancy from decreasing cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality - an analysis of 28 European countries 1995-2019.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy (LE) is an indicator of societal progress among rapidly aging populations. In recent decades, the displacement of deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer have been key drivers in further extending LE on the continent, though improvements vary markedly by country, sex, and over time. This study provides a comparative overview of the age-specific contributions of CVD and cancer to increasing LE in the 27 European Union member states, plus the U.K. METHODS: Cause-by-age decompositions of national changes in LE were conducted for the years 1995-1999 and 2015-2019 based on the standard approach of multiple decrement life tables to quantify the relative impact over time. The contributions of CVD and cancer mortality changes to differences in LE were computed by sex and age for each of the 28 countries. We examine the difference between the member states before 2004 ("founding countries") and those which accessed the EU after 2004 ("A10 countries"). RESULTS: Among men, declines in CVD mortality in the founding countries of the EU were larger contributors to increasing LE over the last decades than malignant neoplasms: 2.26 years were gained by CVD declines versus 1.07 years for cancer, with 2.23 and 0.84 years gained in A10 countries, respectively. Among women in founding countries, 1.81 and 0.54 additional life years were attributable to CVD and cancer mortality declines, respectively, while in A10 countries, the corresponding values were 2.33 and 0.37 years. Lung and stomach cancer in men, and breast cancer in women were key drivers of gains in LE due to cancer overall, though rising mortality rates from lung cancer diminished the potential impact of increasing female LE in both EU founding (e.g., France, Spain, and Sweden) and A10 countries (e.g., Croatia, Hungary, and Slovenia), notably among cohorts aged 55-70 years. Over the 25 years, the LE gap between the two sets of countries narrowed from 6.22 to 5.59 years in men, and from 4.03 to 3.12 years for women, with diminishing female mortality from CVD as a determinative contributor. CONCLUSION: This study underscores the continued existence of an East-West divide in life expectancy across the EU27 + 1, evident on benchmarking the founding vs. A10 countries. In EU founding countries, continuous economic growth alongside improved health care, health promotion and protection policies have contributed to steady declines in mortality from chronic diseases, leading to increases in life expectancy. In contrast, less favourable mortality trends in the EU A10 countries indicate greater economic and health care challenges, and a failure to implement effective health policies.

Quantitative estimates of preventable and treatable deaths from 36 cancers worldwide: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is a leading cause of premature mortality globally. This study estimates premature deaths at ages 30-69 years and distinguishes these as deaths that are preventable (avertable through primary or secondary prevention) or treatable (avertable through curative treatment) in 185 countries worldwide. METHODS: For this population-based study, estimated cancer deaths by country, cancer, sex, and age groups were retrieved from the International Agency for Research on Cancer's GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Crude and age-adjusted cancer-specific years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated for 36 cancer types. FINDINGS: Of the estimated all-ages cancer burden of 265·6 million YLLs, 182·8 million (68·8%) YLLs were due to premature deaths from cancer globally in 2020, with 124·3 million (68·0%) preventable and 58·5 million (32·0%) treatable. Countries with low, medium, or high human development index (HDI) levels all had greater proportions of YLLs at premature ages than very high HDI countries (68·9%, 77·0%, and 72·2% vs 57·7%, respectively). Lung cancer was the leading contributor to preventable premature YLLs in medium to very high HDI countries (17·4% of all cancers, or 29·7 million of 171·3 million YLLs), whereas cervical cancer led in low HDI countries (26·3% of all preventable cancers, or 1·83 million of 6·93 million YLLs). Colorectal and breast cancers were major treatable cancers across all four tiers of HDI (25·5% of all treatable cancers in combination, or 14·9 million of 58·5 million YLLs). INTERPRETATION: Alongside tailored programmes of early diagnosis and screening linked to timely and comprehensive treatment, greater investments in risk factor reduction and vaccination are needed to address premature cancer inequalities. FUNDING: Erasmus Mundus Exchange Programme and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. TRANSLATIONS: For the German, French, Spanish and Chinese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

A new method of estimating prevalence of childhood cancer survivors (POCCS): example of the 20-year prevalence in The Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the number of childhood cancer survivors is crucial for cancer control, including clinical guidelines. To compare estimates across countries despite data sharing restrictions, we propose a new method of computing limited-duration prevalence of childhood cancer survivors (POCCS) using aggregated data. METHODS: We developed a Markov model that simulates, for each calendar year and birth cohort in a population, the proportion of individuals in the following health states: healthy, newly diagnosed with cancer, surviving with cancer, and deceased. Transitions between health states were informed using annual sex- and age-specific incidence rates, conditional 1-year net survival probabilities from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (1989-2011), and annual mortality probability by sex and age group for The Netherlands from the Human Mortality Database. Applying a Markov model, we computed 20-year prevalence of childhood cancer survivors. The resulting POCCS estimates, stratified by sex, were compared with SEER*Stat estimates derived from individual cancer records from the same registry. RESULTS: In 2011, POCCS predicted 654 males [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 637-672] and 539 females (95% CI: 523-555) per million persons living in The Netherlands after childhood cancer diagnosed within the previous 20 years. Using SEER*Stat, the 20-year prevalence was 665 males (95% CI: 647-683) and 544 females (95% CI: 529-560) per million persons on 1 July 2011. CONCLUSIONS: Using the POCCS model and aggregated cancer data, our estimates of childhood cancer survivors limited-duration prevalence were consistent with those computed by a standard method requiring individual cancer records. The POCCS method provides relevant information for planning follow-up and care for childhood cancer survivors.

The economic impact of cancer mortality among working-age individuals in Brazil from 2001 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: About half of cancer deaths in Brazil occur among individuals of working-age (under 65 years for men, under 60 for women), resulting in a substantial economic impact for the country. We aimed to estimate the years of potential productive life lost (YPPLL) and value the productivity lost due to premature deaths from cancer between 2001 and 2015 and the projected to 2030. METHODS: We used the Human Capital Approach to estimate the productivity losses corresponding to YPPLL for cancer deaths in working age people (15-64 years). Mortality data were obtained from the Mortality Information System from 2001 to 2015 and projected between 2016 and 2030. Economic data were obtained from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey and forecasted to 2030. Productivity lost was calculated as the monetary value arising from YPPLL in Int$(2016). RESULTS: Between 2001 and 2030, a total of 2.3 million premature deaths from all cancers combined were observed and forecasted in Brazil (57% men, 43% women), corresponding to 32 million YPPLL and Int$141.3 billion in productivity losses (men: Int$102.5 billion, women: Int$38.8 billion). Between 2001 and 2030, among men, lung (Int$ 12.6 billion), stomach (Int$ 10.6 billion) and colorectal (Int$ 9.4 billion) cancers were expected to contribute to the greatest productivity losses; and among women, it will be for breast (Int$ 10.0 billion), cervical (Int$ 6.4 billion) and colorectal (Int$ 3.2 billion) cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Many preventable cancers result in high lost productivity, suggesting measure to reduce smoking prevalence, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and inadequate diet, improving screening programs and increasing vaccination coverage for human papillomavirus and hepatitis B would have a positive impact on the economy, as well as reducing morbidity and mortality from cancer.

Projected Impact on Labour Productivity Costs of Cancer-Related Premature Mortality in Europe 2018-2040.

AIM: To estimate the potential cost of lost labour productivity due to cancer-related premature mortality in Europe (EU-27 plus Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and United Kingdom) from 2018 to 2040. METHODS: Deaths and years of potential productive life lost due to 23 types of cancer were estimated for 2018-2040, for 31 European countries. The data were analysed by age groups, by sex and by year. Projected productivity costs were estimated by calculating gross earnings by country, gender and age group using the Human Capital Approach, adjusting for projected labour force participation and unemployment rates. Various data sources were used. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Between 2018 and 2040, cancer is expected to cause around eight million premature deaths (58% male). The cumulative projected productivity costs in this respect are €1.3 trillion, representing an annual average of €58.7 billion, or 0.43% of the EU-27 gross domestic product. Labour productivity costs are projected to decrease by 6% from 2018 to 2040. The highest cost region is Western Europe, where Germany and France will experience the highest cumulative losses (€288 and €192 billion, respectively). The most costly cancers, in terms of total costs related to productivity losses, are of the lung and colorectum (€264.4 and €116.3 billion, respectively). In terms of average productivity cost per death, the most costly forms of cancer are Hodgkin lymphoma (€301,157) and melanoma (€260,522). CONCLUSION: The novel information presented could help national policymakers anticipate possible areas for cost savings. Action should be taken on disease prevention, on reducing mortality and on delaying the age of death due to Hodgkin lymphoma, brain cancer, leukaemia and melanoma. Furthermore, the study findings enhance our understanding of macroeconomic variables and could be useful in determining a re-allocation of health expenditures.

Lung cancer mortality in the wake of the changing smoking epidemic: a descriptive study of the global burden in 2020 and 2040.

OBJECTIVES: Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in 2020, responsible for almost one in five (18.0%) deaths. This paper provides an overview of the descriptive epidemiology of LC based on national mortality estimates for 2020 from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and in the context of recent tobacco control policies. DESIGN AND SETTING: For this descriptive study, age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of LC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database and stratified by Human Development Index (HDI). LC deaths were projected to 2040 based on demographic changes alongside scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing rates from the baseline year of 2020. RESULTS: LC mortality rates exhibited marked variations by geography and sex. Low HDI countries, many of them within sub-Saharan Africa, tend to have low levels of mortality and an upward trend in LC deaths is predicted for both sexes until 2040 according to demographic projections, irrespective of trends in rates. In very high HDI countries, including Europe, Northern America and Australia/New Zealand, there are broadly decreasing trends in men whereas in women, rates are still increasing or reaching a plateau. CONCLUSION: The current and future burden of LC in a country or region largely depends on the present trajectory of the smoking epidemic in its constituent populations, with distinct gender differences in smoking patterns, both in transitioning and transitioned countries. Further elevations in LC mortality are expected worldwide, raising important social and political questions, especially in low-income and middle-income countries.

Estimating Global Friction Periods for Economic Evaluation: A Case Study of Selected OECD Member Countries.

BACKGROUND: The friction cost approach (FCA) offers an alternative to the dominant human capital approach to value productivity losses. Application of the FCA in practice is limited largely due to data availability. Recent attempts have tried to standardise the estimation of friction periods across Europe, but to date, this has not been attempted elsewhere. Our aim was to estimate friction periods for 17 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries between 2010 and 2021 based on routinely published data. METHODS: We derived friction period estimates for Australia, Austria, Canada, Czechia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. Vacancy stock and flow data was sourced from the OECD's short-term labour situation database from 2010 to 2021, and included the impact of Covid-19 on the labour market. The estimated friction periods were applied to cost cancer-related premature mortality for the United States as an illustrative case. RESULTS: The average friction period in the five non-European countries (Australia, Canada, Korea, Japan and the United States) was 61.0 days (SD 9.4) (range between 44.8 days in Korea and 82.2 days in Canada) and the average friction period in the 12 European countries was 60.6 days (SD 14.8) (range between 34.1 days in Switzerland and 137.3 days in Czechia). In both cases, the outbreak of Covid-19 increased the length of the friction period. Our illustrative case revealed that productivity costs in the US were over a third lower using the study-specific friction period (56 days) compared with the conventionally assumed 90-day friction period applied in the literature as a default measure. CONCLUSIONS: Our results expand the potential application of the FCA outside of Europe and will support greater utilisation of the FCA and wider inclusion of productivity costs in societal-based economic evaluations based on the use of widely available and updated key labour market variables in our selected countries.

The cost of premature death from cancer attributable to alcohol: Productivity losses in Europe in 2018.

BACKGROUND: More than 1.9 million people die from cancer each year in Europe. Alcohol use is a major modifiable risk factor for cancer and poses an economic burden on society. We estimated the cost of productivity lost due to premature death (under 65 years of age) from alcohol-attributable cancer in the European Union (EU) plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom (UK) in 2018. METHODS: We estimated cancer deaths attributable to alcohol using a Levin-based population attributable fractions method and cancer deaths in 2018 from the Global Cancer Observatory. Lost productivity was estimated for all alcohol-attributable cancer deaths by sex, cancer site, and country. Productivity losses were valued using the human capital approach. RESULTS: An estimated 23,300 cancer deaths among people aged less than 65 in the EU plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the UK in 2018 were attributable to alcohol (18,200 males, 5100 females). This equated to €4.58 billion in total productivity losses in the region and 0.027 % of the European Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The average cost per alcohol-attributable cancer death was €196,000. Productivity lost to alcohol-attributable cancer per capita was highest in Western Europe. Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Portugal had the highest rate of premature mortality from alcohol-attributable cancer and the highest productivity lost as a share of national GDP. CONCLUSION: Our study provides estimates of lost productivity from alcohol-attributable cancer death in Europe. Cost-effective strategies to prevent alcohol-attributable cancer deaths could result in economic benefits for society and must be prioritised.

Cancer survival in the northwestern of São Paulo State, Brazil: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer registry (PBCR) data provide crucial information for evaluating the effectiveness of cancer services and reflect prospects for cure by estimating population-based cancer survival. This study provides long-term trends in survival among patients diagnosed with cancer in the Barretos region (São Paulo State, Brazil). METHODS: In this population-based study, we estimated the one- and five-year age-standardized net survival rates of 13,246 patients diagnosed with 24 different cancer types in Barretos region between 2000 and 2018. The results were presented by sex, time since diagnosis, disease stage, and period of diagnosis. RESULTS: Marked differences in the one- and five-year age-standardized net survival rates were observed across the cancer sites. Pancreatic cancer had the lowest 5-year net survival (5.5 %, 95 %CI: 2.9-9.4) followed by oesophageal cancer (5.6 %, 95 %CI: 3.0-9.4), while prostate cancer ranked the best (92.1 %, 95 %CI: 87.8-94.9), followed by thyroid cancer (87.4 %, 95 %CI: 69.9-95.1) and female breast cancer (78.3 %, 95 %CI: 74.5-81.6). The survival rates differed substantially according to sex and clinical stage. Comparing the first (2000-2005) and last (2012-2018) periods, cancer survival improved, especially for thyroid, leukemia, and pharyngeal cancers, with differences of 34.4 %, 29.0 %, and 28.7 %, respectively. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate long-term cancer survival in the Barretos region, showing an overall improvement over the last two decades. Survival varied by site, indicating the need for multiple cancer control actions in the future with a lower burden of cancer.