Molecular subtypes explain lupus epigenomic heterogeneity unveiling new regulatory genetic risk variants.

The heterogeneity of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) can be explained by epigenetic alterations that disrupt transcriptional programs mediating environmental and genetic risk. This study evaluated the epigenetic contribution to SLE heterogeneity considering molecular and serological subtypes, genetics and transcriptional status, followed by drug target discovery. We performed a stratified epigenome-wide association studies of whole blood DNA methylation from 213 SLE patients and 221 controls. Methylation quantitative trait loci analyses, cytokine and transcription factor activity - epigenetic associations and methylation-expression correlations were conducted. New drug targets were searched for based on differentially methylated genes. In a stratified approach, a total of 974 differential methylation CpG sites with dependency on molecular subtypes and autoantibody profiles were found. Mediation analyses suggested that SLE-associated SNPs in the HLA region exert their risk through DNA methylation changes. Novel genetic variants regulating DNAm in disease or in specific molecular contexts were identified. The epigenetic landscapes showed strong association with transcription factor activity and cytokine levels, conditioned by the molecular context. Epigenetic signals were enriched in known and novel drug targets for SLE. This study reveals possible genetic drivers and consequences of epigenetic variability on SLE heterogeneity and disentangles the DNAm mediation role on SLE genetic risk and novel disease-specific meQTLs. Finally, novel targets for drug development were discovered.

Expression quantitative trait loci analysis in rheumatoid arthritis identifies tissue specific variants associated with severity and outcome.

OBJECTIVE: Genome-wide association studies have successfully identified more than 100 loci associated with susceptibility to rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, our understanding of the functional effects of genetic variants in causing RA and their effects on disease severity and response to treatment remains limited. METHODS: In this study, we conducted expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analysis to dissect the link between genetic variants and gene expression comparing the disease tissue against blood using RNA-Sequencing of synovial biopsies (n=85) and blood samples (n=51) from treatment-naïve patients with RA from the Pathobiology of Early Arthritis Cohort. RESULTS: This identified 898 eQTL genes in synovium and genes loci in blood, with 232 genes in common to both synovium and blood, although notably many eQTL were tissue specific. Examining the HLA region, we uncovered a specific eQTL at HLA-DPB2 with the critical triad of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) rs3128921 driving synovial HLA-DPB2 expression, and both rs3128921 and HLA-DPB2 gene expression correlating with clinical severity and increasing probability of the lympho-myeloid pathotype. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis highlights the need to explore functional consequences of genetic associations in disease tissue. HLA-DPB2 SNP rs3128921 could potentially be used to stratify patients to more aggressive treatment immediately at diagnosis.

Dissecting the pathogenic effects of smoking and its hallmarks in blood DNA methylation on colorectal cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is suggested as a risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC), but the complex relationship and the potential pathway are not fully understood. METHODS: We performed two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses with genetic instruments for smoking behaviours and related DNA methylation in blood and summary-level GWAS data of colorectal cancer to disentangle the relationship. Colocalization analyses and prospective gene-environment interaction analyses were also conducted as replication. RESULTS: Convincing evidence was identified for the pathogenic effect of smoking initiation on CRC risk and suggestive evidence was observed for the protective effect of smoking cessation in the univariable MR analyses. Multivariable MR analysis revealed that these associations were independent of other smoking phenotypes and alcohol drinking. Genetically predicted methylation at CpG site cg17823346 [ZMIZ1] were identified to decrease CRC risk; while genetically predicted methylation at cg02149899 would increase CRC risk. Colocalization and gene-environment interaction analyses added further evidence to the relationship between epigenetic modification at cg17823346 [ZMIZ1] as well as cg02149899 and CRC risk. DISCUSSION: Our study confirms the significant association between tobacco smoking, DNA methylation and CRC risk and yields a novel insight into the pathogenic effect of tobacco smoking on CRC risk.

Exploring the cross-cancer effect of smoking and its fingerprints in blood DNA methylation on multiple cancers: A Mendelian randomization study.

Aberrant smoking-related DNA methylation has been widely investigated as a carcinogenesis mechanism, but whether the cross-cancer epigenetic pathways exist remains unclear. We conducted two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses respectively on smoking behaviors (age of smoking initiation, smoking initiation, smoking cessation, and lifetime smoking index [LSI]) and smoking-related DNA methylation to investigate their effect on 15 site-specific cancers, based on a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 1.2 million European individuals and an epigenome-WAS (EWAS) of 5907 blood samples of Europeans for smoking and 15 GWASs of European ancestry for multiple site-specific cancers. Significantly identified CpG sites were further used for colocalization analysis, and those with cross-cancer effect were validated by overlapping with tissue-specific eQTLs. In the genomic MR, smoking measurements of smoking initiation, smoking cessation and LSI were suggested to be casually associated with risk of seven types of site-specific cancers, among which cancers at lung, cervix and colorectum were provided with strong evidence. In the epigenetic MR, methylation at 75 CpG sites were reported to be significantly associated with increased risks of multiple cancers. Eight out of 75 CpG sites were observed with cross-cancer effect, among which cg06639488 (EFNA1), cg12101586 (CYP1A1) and cg14142171 (HLA-L) were validated by eQTLs at specific cancer sites, and cg07932199 (ATXN2) had strong evidence to be associated with cancers of lung (coefficient, 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31-1.00), colorectum (0.90 [0.61, 1.18]), breast (0.31 [0.20, 0.43]) and endometrium (0.98 [0.68, 1.27]). These findings highlight the potential practices targeting DNA methylation-involved cross-cancer pathways.

Genome-wide aggregated trans-effects on risk of type 1 diabetes: A test of the "omnigenic" sparse effector hypothesis of complex trait genetics.

The "omnigenic" hypothesis postulates that the polygenic effects of common SNPs on a typical complex trait are mediated through trans-effects on expression of a relatively sparse set of effector ("core") genes. We tested this hypothesis in a study of 4,964 cases of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and 7,497 controls by using summary statistics to calculate aggregated (excluding the HLA region) trans-scores for gene expression in blood. From associations of T1D with aggregated trans-scores, nine putative core genes were identified, of which three-STAT1, CTLA4 and FOXP3-are genes in which variants cause monogenic forms of autoimmune diabetes. Seven of these genes affect the activity of regulatory T cells, and two are involved in immune responses to microbial lipids. Four T1D-associated genomic regions could be identified as master regulators via trans-effects on gene expression. These results support the sparse effector hypothesis and reshape our understanding of the genetic architecture of T1D.

nestedcv: an R package for fast implementation of nested cross-validation with embedded feature selection designed for transcriptomics and high-dimensional data.

Motivation: Although machine learning models are commonly used in medical research, many analyses implement a simple partition into training data and hold-out test data, with cross-validation (CV) for tuning of model hyperparameters. Nested CV with embedded feature selection is especially suited to biomedical data where the sample size is frequently limited, but the number of predictors may be significantly larger (P ≫ n). Results: The nestedcv R package implements fully nested k × l-fold CV for lasso and elastic-net regularized linear models via the glmnet package and supports a large array of other machine learning models via the caret framework. Inner CV is used to tune models and outer CV is used to determine model performance without bias. Fast filter functions for feature selection are provided and the package ensures that filters are nested within the outer CV loop to avoid information leakage from performance test sets. Measurement of performance by outer CV is also used to implement Bayesian linear and logistic regression models using the horseshoe prior over parameters to encourage a sparse model and determine unbiased model accuracy. Availability and implementation: The R package nestedcv is available from CRAN: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=nestedcv.

Mendelian randomization and clinical trial evidence supports TYK2 inhibition as a therapeutic target for autoimmune diseases.

BACKGROUND: To explore the associations of genetically proxied TYK2 inhibition with a wide range of disease outcomes and biomarkers to identify therapeutic repurposing opportunities, adverse effects, and biomarkers of efficacy. METHODS: The loss-of-function missense variant rs34536443 in TYK2 gene was used as a genetic instrument to proxy the effect of TYK2 inhibition. A phenome-wide Mendelian randomization (MR) study was conducted to explore the associations of genetically-proxied TYK2 inhibition with 1473 disease outcomes in UK Biobank (N = 339,197). Identified associations were examined for replication in FinnGen (N = 260,405). We further performed tissue-specific gene expression MR, colocalization analyses, and MR with 247 blood biomarkers. A systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on TYK2 inhibitor was performed to complement the genetic evidence. FINDINGS: PheWAS-MR found that genetically-proxied TYK2 inhibition was associated with lower risk of a wide range of autoimmune diseases. The associations with hypothyroidism and psoriasis were confirmed in MR analysis of tissue-specific TYK2 gene expression and the associations with systemic lupus erythematosus, psoriasis, and rheumatoid arthritis were observed in colocalization analysis. There were nominal associations of genetically-proxied TYK2 inhibition with increased risk of prostate and breast cancer but not in tissue-specific expression MR or colocalization analyses. Thirty-seven blood biomarkers were associated with the TYK2 loss-of-function mutation. Evidence from RCTs confirmed the effectiveness of TYK2 inhibitors on plaque psoriasis and reported several adverse effects. INTERPRETATION: This study supports TYK2 inhibitor as a potential treatment for psoriasis and several other autoimmune diseases. Increased pharmacovigilance is warranted in relation to the potential adverse effects. FUNDING: None.

Alcohol consumption, blood DNA methylation and breast cancer: a Mendelian randomisation study.

Alcohol intake is thought to be a risk factor for breast cancer, but the causal relationship and carcinogenic mechanisms are not clear. We performed an up-to-date meta-analysis of prospective studies to assess observational association, and then conducted MR analysis to make causal inference based on the genetic predisposition to alcohol consumption ("drinks per week") and pathological drinking behaviours ("alcohol use disorder" and "problematic alcohol use"), as well as genetically predicted DNA methylation at by alcohol-related CpG sites in blood. We found an observational dose-response association between alcohol intake and breast cancer incidence with an additional risk of 4% for per 10 g/day increase in alcohol consumption. Genetic predisposition to alcohol consumption ("drinks per week") was not causally associated with breast cancer incidence at the OR of 1.01 (95% CI 0.84, 1.23), but problematic alcohol use (PAU) was linked to a higher breast cancer risk at the OR of 1.76 (95% CI 1.04, 2.99) when conditioning on alcohol consumption. Epigenetic MR analysis identified four CpG sites, cg03260624 near CDC7 gene, cg10816169 near ZNF318 gene, cg03345232 near RIN3 gene, and cg26312998 near RP11-867G23.13 gene, where genetically predicted epigenetic modifications were associated with an increased breast cancer incidence risk. Our findings re-affirmed that alcohol consumption is of high risk for breast cancer incidence even at a very low dose, and the pathogenic effect of alcohol on breast cancer could be due to pathological drinking behaviour and epigenetic modification at several CpG sites, which could be potential intervention targets for breast cancer prevention.

Genome-Wide Association Study of NAFLD Using Electronic Health Records.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several risk loci for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Previous studies have largely relied on small sample sizes and have assessed quantitative traits. We performed a case-control GWAS in the UK Biobank using recorded diagnosis of NAFLD based on diagnostic codes recommended in recent consensus guidelines. We performed a GWAS of 4,761 cases of NAFLD and 373,227 healthy controls without evidence of NAFLD. Sensitivity analyses were performed excluding other co-existing hepatic pathology, adjusting for body mass index (BMI) and adjusting for alcohol intake. A total of 9,723,654 variants were assessed by logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, genetic principal components, and genotyping batch. We performed a GWAS meta-analysis using available summary association statistics. Six risk loci were identified (P < 5*10-8 ) (apolipoprotein E [APOE], patatin-like phospholipase domain containing 3 [PNPLA3, transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 [TM6SF2], glucokinase regulator [GCKR], mitochondrial amidoxime reducing component 1 [MARC1], and tribbles pseudokinase 1 [TRIB1]). All loci retained significance in sensitivity analyses without co-existent hepatic pathology and after adjustment for BMI. PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 remained significant after adjustment for alcohol (alcohol intake was known in only 158,388 individuals), with others demonstrating consistent direction and magnitude of effect. All six loci were significant on meta-analysis. Rs429358 (P = 2.17*10-11 ) is a missense variant within the APOE gene determining ϵ4 versus ϵ2/ϵ3 alleles. The ϵ4 allele of APOE offered protection against NAFLD (odds ratio for heterozygotes 0.84 [95% confidence interval 0.78-0.90] and homozygotes 0.64 [0.50-0.79]). Conclusion: This GWAS replicates six known NAFLD-susceptibility loci and confirms that the ϵ4 allele of APOE is associated with protection against NAFLD. The results are consistent with published GWAS using histological and radiological measures of NAFLD, confirming that NAFLD identified through diagnostic codes from consensus guidelines is a valid alternative to more invasive and costly approaches.

Genome-wide analysis identifies gallstone-susceptibility loci including genes regulating gastrointestinal motility.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several risk loci for gallstone disease. As with most polygenic traits, it is likely that many genetic determinants are undiscovered. The aim of this study was to identify genetic variants that represent new targets for gallstone research and treatment. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We performed a GWAS of 28,627 gallstone cases and 348,373 controls in the UK Biobank, replicated findings in a Scottish cohort (1089 cases, 5228 controls), and conducted a GWA meta-analysis (43,639 cases, 506,798 controls) with the FinnGen cohort. We assessed pathway enrichment using gene-based then gene-set analysis and tissue expression of identified genes in Genotype-Tissue Expression project data. We constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) and evaluated phenotypic traits associated with the score. Seventy-five risk loci were identified (p < 5 × 10-8 ), of which 46 were new. Pathway enrichment revealed associations with lipid homeostasis, glucuronidation, phospholipid metabolism, and gastrointestinal motility. Anoctamin 1 (ANO1) and transmembrane Protein 147 (TMEM147), both in novel, replicated loci, are expressed in the gallbladder and gastrointestinal tract. Both regulate gastrointestinal motility. The gallstone risk allele rs7599-A leads to suppression of hepatic TMEM147 expression, suggesting that the protein protects against gallstone formation. The highest decile of the PRS demonstrated a 6-fold increased odds of gallstones compared with the lowest decile. The PRS was strongly associated with increased body mass index, serum liver enzymes, and C-reactive protein concentrations, and decreased lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This GWAS demonstrates the polygenic nature of gallstone risk and identifies 46 novel susceptibility loci. We implicate genes influencing gastrointestinal motility in the pathogenesis of gallstones.

Prediction of colorectal cancer risk based on profiling with common genetic variants.

Increasing numbers of common genetic variants associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) have been identified. Our study aimed to determine whether risk prediction based on common genetic variants might enable stratification for CRC risk. Meta-analysis of 11 genome-wide association studies comprising 16 871 cases and 26 328 controls was performed to capture CRC susceptibility variants. Genetic prediction models with several candidate polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were generated from Scottish CRC case-control studies (6478 cases and 11 043 controls) and the score with the best performance was then tested in UK Biobank (UKBB) (4800 cases and 20 287 controls). A weighted PRS of 116 CRC single nucleotide polymorphisms (wPRS116 ) was found with the best predictive performance, reporting a c-statistics of 0.60 and an odds ratio (OR) of 1.46 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41-1.50, per SD increase) in Scottish data set. The predictive performance of this wPRS116 was consistently validated in UKBB data set with c-statistics of 0.61 and an OR of 1.49 (95% CI = 1.44-1.54, per SD increase). Modeling the levels of PRS with age and sex in the general UK population shows that employing genetic risk profiling can achieve a moderate degree of risk discrimination that could be helpful to identify a subpopulation with higher CRC risk due to genetic susceptibility.

Expression quantitative trait loci-derived scores and white matter microstructure in UK Biobank: a novel approach to integrating genetics and neuroimaging.

Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) are genetic variants associated with gene expression. Using genome-wide genotype data, it is now possible to impute gene expression using eQTL mapping efforts. This approach can be used to analyse previously unexplored relationships between gene expression and heritable in vivo measures of human brain structural connectivity. Using large-scale eQTL mapping studies, we computed 6457 gene expression scores (eQTL scores) using genome-wide genotype data in UK Biobank, where each score represents a genetic proxy measure of gene expression. These scores were then tested for associations with two diffusion tensor imaging measures, fractional anisotropy (NFA = 14,518) and mean diffusivity (NMD = 14,485), representing white matter structural integrity. We found FDR-corrected significant associations between 8 eQTL scores and structural connectivity phenotypes, including global and regional measures (ßabsolute FA = 0.0339-0.0453; MD = 0.0308-0.0381) and individual tracts (ßabsolute FA = 0.0320-0.0561; MD = 0.0295-0.0480). The loci within these eQTL scores have been reported to regulate expression of genes involved in various brain-related processes and disorders, such as neurite outgrowth and Parkinson's disease (DCAKD, SLC35A4, SEC14L4, SRA1, NMT1, CPNE1, PLEKHM1, UBE3C). Our findings indicate that eQTL scores are associated with measures of in vivo brain connectivity and provide novel information not previously found by conventional genome-wide association studies. Although the role of expression of these genes regarding white matter microstructural integrity is not yet clear, these results suggest it may be possible, in future, to map potential trait- and disease-associated eQTL to in vivo brain connectivity and better understand the mechanisms of psychiatric disorders and brain traits, and their associated imaging findings.

Genetically determined serum urate levels and cardiovascular and other diseases in UK Biobank cohort: A phenome-wide mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: The role of urate in cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) has been extensively investigated in observational studies; however, the extent of any causal effect remains unclear, making it difficult to evaluate its clinical relevance. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) together with a Bayesian analysis of tree-structured phenotypic model (TreeWAS) was performed to examine disease outcomes related to genetically determined serum urate levels in 339,256 unrelated White British individuals (54% female) in the UK Biobank who were aged 40-69 years (mean age, 56.87; SD, 7.99) when recruited from 2006 to 2010. Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were performed to replicate significant findings using various genome-wide association study (GWAS) consortia data. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine possible pleiotropic effects on metabolic traits of the genetic variants used as instruments for urate. PheWAS analysis, examining the association with 1,431 disease outcomes, identified 13 distinct phecodes representing 4 disease groups (inflammatory polyarthropathies, hypertensive disease, circulatory disease, and metabolic disorders) and 9 disease outcomes (gout, gouty arthropathy, pyogenic arthritis, essential hypertension, coronary atherosclerosis, ischemic heart disease, chronic ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, and hypercholesterolemia) that were associated with genetically determined serum urate levels after multiple testing correction (p < 3.35 × 10-4). TreeWAS analysis, examining 10,750 ICD-10 diagnostic terms, identified more sub-phenotypes of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (e.g., angina pectoris, heart failure, cerebral infarction). MR analysis successfully replicated the association with gout, hypertension, heart diseases, and blood lipid levels but indicated the existence of genetic pleiotropy. Sensitivity analyses support an inference that pleiotropic effects of genetic variants on urate and metabolic traits contribute to the observational associations with CVDs. The main limitations of this study relate to possible bias from pleiotropic effects of the considered genetic variants and possible misclassification of cases for mild disease that did not require hospitalization. CONCLUSION: In this study, high serum urate levels were found to be associated with increased risk of different types of cardiac events. The finding of genetic pleiotropy indicates the existence of common upstream pathological elements influencing both urate and metabolic traits, and this may suggest new opportunities and challenges for developing drugs targeting a common mediator that would be beneficial for both the treatment of gout and the prevention of cardiovascular comorbidities.

Genome-Wide Association Study of Diabetic Kidney Disease Highlights Biology Involved in Glomerular Basement Membrane Collagen.

BACKGROUND: Although diabetic kidney disease demonstrates both familial clustering and single nucleotide polymorphism heritability, the specific genetic factors influencing risk remain largely unknown. METHODS: To identify genetic variants predisposing to diabetic kidney disease, we performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) analyses. Through collaboration with the Diabetes Nephropathy Collaborative Research Initiative, we assembled a large collection of type 1 diabetes cohorts with harmonized diabetic kidney disease phenotypes. We used a spectrum of ten diabetic kidney disease definitions based on albuminuria and renal function. RESULTS: Our GWAS meta-analysis included association results for up to 19,406 individuals of European descent with type 1 diabetes. We identified 16 genome-wide significant risk loci. The variant with the strongest association (rs55703767) is a common missense mutation in the collagen type IV alpha 3 chain (COL4A3) gene, which encodes a major structural component of the glomerular basement membrane (GBM). Mutations in COL4A3 are implicated in heritable nephropathies, including the progressive inherited nephropathy Alport syndrome. The rs55703767 minor allele (Asp326Tyr) is protective against several definitions of diabetic kidney disease, including albuminuria and ESKD, and demonstrated a significant association with GBM width; protective allele carriers had thinner GBM before any signs of kidney disease, and its effect was dependent on glycemia. Three other loci are in or near genes with known or suggestive involvement in this condition (BMP7) or renal biology (COLEC11 and DDR1). CONCLUSIONS: The 16 diabetic kidney disease-associated loci may provide novel insights into the pathogenesis of this condition and help identify potential biologic targets for prevention and treatment.

Phenome-wide Mendelian-randomization study of genetically determined vitamin D on multiple health outcomes using the UK Biobank study.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent across the globe. Existing studies suggest that a low vitamin D level is associated with more than 130 outcomes. Exploring the causal role of vitamin D in health outcomes could support or question vitamin D supplementation. METHODS: We carried out a systematic literature review of previous Mendelian-randomization studies on vitamin D. We then implemented a Mendelian Randomization-Phenome Wide Association Study (MR-PheWAS) analysis on data from 339 256 individuals of White British origin from UK Biobank. We first ran a PheWAS analysis to test the associations between a 25(OH)D polygenic risk score and 920 disease outcomes, and then nine phenotypes (i.e. systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, risk of hypertension, T2D, ischaemic heart disease, body mass index, depression, non-vertebral fracture and all-cause mortality) that met the pre-defined inclusion criteria for further analysis were examined by multiple MR analytical approaches to explore causality. RESULTS: The PheWAS analysis did not identify any health outcome associated with the 25(OH)D polygenic risk score. Although a selection of nine outcomes were reported in previous Mendelian-randomization studies or umbrella reviews to be associated with vitamin D, our MR analysis, with substantial study power (>80% power to detect an association with an odds ratio >1.2 for per standard deviation increase of log-transformed 25[OH]D), was unable to support an interpretation of causal association. CONCLUSIONS: We investigated the putative causal effects of vitamin D on multiple health outcomes in a White population. We did not support a causal effect on any of the disease outcomes tested. However, we cannot exclude small causal effects or effects on outcomes that we did not have enough power to explore due to the small number of cases.

Persistent C-peptide secretion in Type 1 diabetes and its relationship to the genetic architecture of diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this cross-sectional study was to explore the relationship of detectable C-peptide secretion in type 1 diabetes to clinical features and to the genetic architecture of diabetes. METHODS: C-peptide was measured in an untimed serum sample in the SDRNT1BIO cohort of 6076 Scottish people with clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes or latent autoimmune diabetes of adulthood. Risk scores at loci previously associated with type 1 and type 2 diabetes were calculated from publicly available summary statistics. RESULTS: Prevalence of detectable C-peptide varied from 19% in those with onset before age 15 and duration greater than 15 years to 92% in those with onset after age 35 and duration less than 5 years. Twenty-nine percent of variance in C-peptide levels was accounted for by associations with male gender, late age at onset and short duration. The SNP heritability of residual C-peptide secretion adjusted for gender, age at onset and duration was estimated as 26%. Genotypic risk score for type 1 diabetes was inversely associated with detectable C-peptide secretion: the most strongly associated loci were the HLA and INS gene regions. A risk score for type 1 diabetes based on the HLA DR3 and DQ8-DR4 serotypes was strongly associated with early age at onset and inversely associated with C-peptide persistence. For C-peptide but not age at onset, there were strong associations with risk scores for type 1 and type 2 diabetes that were based on SNPs in the HLA region but not accounted for by HLA serotype. CONCLUSIONS: Persistence of C-peptide secretion varies widely in people clinically diagnosed as type 1 diabetes. C-peptide persistence is influenced by variants in the HLA region that are different from those determining risk of early-onset type 1 diabetes. Known risk loci for diabetes account for only a small proportion of the genetic effects on C-peptide persistence.

Association of response to TNF inhibitors in rheumatoid arthritis with quantitative trait loci for CD40 and CD39.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to investigate whether genetic effects on response to TNF inhibitors (TNFi) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) could be localised by considering known genetic susceptibility loci for relevant traits and to evaluate the usefulness of these genetic loci for stratifying drug response. METHODS: We studied the relation of TNFi response, quantified by change in swollen joint counts ( Δ SJC) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate ( Δ ESR) with locus-specific scores constructed from genome-wide assocation study summary statistics in 2938 genotyped individuals: 37 scores for RA; scores for 19 immune cell traits; scores for expression or methylation of 93 genes with previously reported associations between transcript level and drug response. Multivariate associations were evaluated in penalised regression models by cross-validation. RESULTS: We detected a statistically significant association between Δ SJC and the RA score at the CD40 locus (p=0.0004) and an inverse association between Δ SJC and the score for expression of CD39 on CD4 T cells (p=0.00005). A previously reported association between CD39 expression on regulatory T cells and response to methotrexate was in the opposite direction. In stratified analysis by concomitant methotrexate treatment, the inverse association was stronger in the combination therapy group and dissipated in the TNFi monotherapy group. Overall, ability to predict TNFi response from genotypic scores was limited, with models explaining less than 1% of phenotypic variance. CONCLUSIONS: The association with the CD39 trait is difficult to interpret because patients with RA are often prescribed TNFi after failing to respond to methotrexate. The CD39 and CD40 pathways could be relevant for targeting drug therapy.

Validity of a two-component imaging-derived disease activity score for improved assessment of synovitis in early rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Imaging of joint inflammation provides a standard against which to derive an updated DAS for RA. Our objectives were to develop and validate a DAS based on reweighting the DAS28 components to maximize association with US-assessed synovitis. METHODS: Early RA patients from two observational cohorts (n = 434 and n = 117) and a clinical trial (n = 59) were assessed at intervals up to 104 weeks from baseline; all US scans were within 1 week of clinical exam. There were 899, 163 and 183 visits in each cohort. Associations of combined US grey scale and power Doppler scores (GSPD) with 28 tender joint count and 28 swollen joint count (SJC28), CRP, ESR and general health visual analogue scale were examined in linear mixed model regressions. Cross-validation evaluated model predictive ability. Coefficients learned from training data defined a re-weighted DAS28 that was validated against radiographic progression in independent data (3037 observations; 717 patients). RESULTS: Of the conventional DAS28 components only SJC28 and CRP were associated with GSPD in all three development cohorts. A two-component model including SJC28 and CRP outperformed a four-component model (R2 = 0.235, 0.392, 0.380 vs 0.232, 0.380, 0.375, respectively). The re-weighted two-component DAS28CRP outperformed conventional DAS28 definitions in predicting GSPD (Δtest log-likelihood <-2.6, P < 0.01), Larsen score and presence of erosions. CONCLUSION: A score based on SJC28 and CRP alone demonstrated stronger associations with synovitis and radiographic progression than the original DAS28 and should be considered in research on pathophysiological manifestations of early RA. Implications for clinical management of RA remain to be established.

Prediction of treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis patients using genome-wide SNP data.

Although a number of treatments are available for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), each of them shows a significant nonresponse rate in patients. Therefore, predicting a priori the likelihood of treatment response would be of great patient benefit. Here, we conducted a comparison of a variety of statistical methods for predicting three measures of treatment response, between baseline and 3 or 6 months, using genome-wide SNP data from RA patients available from the MAximising Therapeutic Utility in Rheumatoid Arthritis (MATURA) consortium. Two different treatments and 11 different statistical methods were evaluated. We used 10-fold cross validation to assess predictive performance, with nested 10-fold cross validation used to tune the model hyperparameters when required. Overall, we found that SNPs added very little prediction information to that obtained using clinical characteristics only, such as baseline trait value. This observation can be explained by the lack of strong genetic effects and the relatively small sample sizes available; in analysis of simulated and real data, with larger effects and/or larger sample sizes, prediction performance was much improved. Overall, methods that were consistent with the genetic architecture of the trait were able to achieve better predictive ability than methods that were not. For treatment response in RA, methods that assumed a complex underlying genetic architecture achieved slightly better prediction performance than methods that assumed a simplified genetic architecture.

Genome-wide association study of response to tumour necrosis factor inhibitor therapy in rheumatoid arthritis.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is characterised by chronic synovial joint inflammation. Treatment has been revolutionised by tumour necrosis factor alpha inhibitors (TNFi) but each available drug shows a significant non-response rate. We conducted a genome-wide association study of 1752 UK RA TNFi-treated patients to identify predictors of change in the Disease Activity Score 28 (DAS28) and subcomponents over 3-6 months. The rs7195994 variant at the FTO gene locus was associated with infliximab response when looking at a change in the swollen joint count (SJC28) subcomponent (p = 9.74 × 10-9). Capture Hi-C data show chromatin interactions in GM12878 cells between rs2540767, in high linkage disequilibrium with rs7195994 (R2 = 0.9) and IRX3, a neighbouring gene of FTO. IRX3 encodes a transcription factor involved in adipocyte remodelling and is regarded as the obesity gene at the FTO locus. Importantly, the rs7195994 association remained significantly associated following adjustment for BMI. In addition, using capture Hi-C data we showed interactions between TNFi-response associated variants and 16 RA susceptibility variants.