Oral Sylvatic Plague Vaccine Does Not Adequately Protect Prairie Dogs (Cynomys spp.) for Endangered Black-Footed Ferret (Mustela nigripes) Conservation.

The plague bacterium Yersinia pestis is lethal to endangered black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes, BFF) and the prairie dogs (Cynomys spp., PD) on which they depend for habitat and prey. We assessed the effectiveness of an oral sylvatic plague vaccine delivered in baits to black-tailed PD (Cynomys ludovicianus, BTPD) from 2013 to 2017 on the Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (CMR) in northcentral Montana. We permanently marked BTPD on four paired vaccine (N = 1,349 individuals) and placebo plots (N = 926; 7,027 total captures). We analyzed capture-recapture data under a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate annual apparent survival. Overall, survival averaged 0.05 lower on vaccine plots than on paired placebo plots. Immediately before noticeable die-offs and detecting plague on pairs CMR1 and CMR2, 89% of BTPD sampled on vaccine plots had consumed at least one bait and the immune systems (pleural) of 40% were likely boosted by consuming baits over multiple years. Survival to the following year was 0.16 and 0.05 on the vaccine plots and 0.19 and 0.06 on the placebo plots for pairs CMR1 and CMR2, respectively. These rates were markedly lower than 0.63, the overall average estimate on those same plots during the previous 3 years. PD populations subjected to such large die-offs would not be expected to sustain a BFF population. An overriding limitation to achieving sufficient protection rests with vaccine delivery constraints. Late summer/fall bait distribution results in the highest bait uptake rates. However, the PD birth pulse each spring can double the size of populations in most years, greatly reducing the proportion of vaccinates in populations and diminishing potential herd immunity benefits. In addition to nonvaccinated juveniles and PD that do not consume bait, incomplete vaccine protection and time required for immunity to develop leaves a large majority of PD populations vulnerable to plague for 6-7 months or more each year.

Temperature-associated decreases in demographic rates of Afrotropical bird species over 30 years.

Tropical mountains harbor globally significant levels of biodiversity and endemism. Climate change threatens many tropical montane species, yet little research has assessed the effects of climate change on the demographic rates of tropical species, particularly in the Afrotropics. Here, we report on the demographic rates of 21 Afrotropical bird species over 30 years in montane forests in Tanzania. We used mark-recapture analyses to model rates of population growth, recruitment, and apparent survival as functions of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. For over one-half of focal species, decreasing population growth rates were associated with increasing temperature. Due to the trend in temperature over time, we substituted a time covariate for the temperature covariate in top-ranked population growth rate models. Temperature was a better explanatory covariate than time for 6 of the 12 species, or 29% of all focal species. Population growth rates were also lower for species found further below their elevational midpoint and for smaller-bodied species. Changes in population growth rates were more closely tied to changes in recruitment than to changes in apparent survival. There were no consistent associations between demographic rates and precipitation. This study demonstrates temperature-associated demographic impacts for 6 (29%) of 21 focal species in an Afrotropical understory bird community and highlights the need to incorporate the impacts of climate change on demographic rates into conservation planning across the tropics.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation-driven rainfall pulse amplifies predation by owls on seabirds via apparent competition with mice.

Most approaches for assessing species vulnerability to climate change have focused on direct impacts via abiotic changes rather than indirect impacts mediated by changes in species interactions. Changes in rainfall regimes may influence species interactions from the bottom-up by increasing primary productivity in arid environments, but subsequently lead to less predictable top-down effects. Our study demonstrates how the effects of an EL Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven rainfall pulse ricochets along a chain of interactions between marine and terrestrial food webs, leading to enhanced predation of a vulnerable marine predator on its island breeding grounds. On Santa Barbara Island, barn owls (Tyto alba) are the main predator of a nocturnal seabird, the Scripps's murrelet (Synthliboramphus scrippsi), as well as an endemic deer mouse. We followed the links between rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index and subsequent peaks in mouse and owl abundance. After the mouse population declined steeply, there was approximately 15-fold increase in the number of murrelets killed by owls. We also simulated these dynamics with a mathematical model and demonstrate that bottom-up resource pulses can lead to subsequent declines in alternative prey. Our study highlights the need for understanding how species interactions will change with shifting rainfall patterns through the effects of ENSO under global change.

Variability in seroprevalence of rabies virus neutralizing antibodies and associated factors in a Colorado population of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus).

In 2001-2005 we sampled permanently marked big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) at summer roosts in buildings at Fort Collins, Colorado, for rabies virus neutralizing antibodies (RVNA). Seroprevalence was higher in adult females (17.9%, n = 2,332) than males (9.4%, n = 128; P = 0.007) or volant juveniles (10.2%, n = 738; P<0.0001). Seroprevalence was lowest in a drought year with local insecticide use and highest in the year with normal conditions, suggesting that environmental stress may suppress RVNA production in big brown bats. Seroprevalence also increased with age of bat, and varied from 6.2 to 26.7% among adult females at five roosts sampled each year for five years. Seroprevalence of adult females at 17 other roosts sampled for 1 to 4 years ranged from 0.0 to 47.1%. Using logistic regression, the only ranking model in our candidate set of explanatory variables for serological status at first sampling included year, day of season, and a year by day of season interaction that varied with relative drought conditions. The presence or absence of antibodies in individual bats showed temporal variability. Year alone provided the best model to explain the likelihood of adult female bats showing a transition to seronegative from a previously seropositive state. Day of the season was the only competitive model to explain the likelihood of a transition from seronegative to seropositive, which increased as the season progressed. We found no rabies viral RNA in oropharyngeal secretions of 261 seropositive bats or in organs of 13 euthanized seropositive bats. Survival of seropositive and seronegative bats did not differ. The presence of RVNA in serum of bats should not be interpreted as evidence for ongoing rabies infection.

Host and viral ecology determine bat rabies seasonality and maintenance.

Rabies is an acute viral infection that is typically fatal. Most rabies modeling has focused on disease dynamics and control within terrestrial mammals (e.g., raccoons and foxes). As such, rabies in bats has been largely neglected until recently. Because bats have been implicated as natural reservoirs for several emerging zoonotic viruses, including SARS-like corona viruses, henipaviruses, and lyssaviruses, understanding how pathogens are maintained within a population becomes vital. Unfortunately, little is known about maintenance mechanisms for any pathogen in bat populations. We present a mathematical model parameterized with unique data from an extensive study of rabies in a Colorado population of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) to elucidate general maintenance mechanisms. We propose that life history patterns of many species of temperate-zone bats, coupled with sufficiently long incubation periods, allows for rabies virus maintenance. Seasonal variability in bat mortality rates, specifically low mortality during hibernation, allows long-term bat population viability. Within viable bat populations, sufficiently long incubation periods allow enough infected individuals to enter hibernation and survive until the following year, and hence avoid an epizootic fadeout of rabies virus. We hypothesize that the slowing effects of hibernation on metabolic and viral activity maintains infected individuals and their pathogens until susceptibles from the annual birth pulse become infected and continue the cycle. This research provides a context to explore similar host ecology and viral dynamics that may explain seasonal patterns and maintenance of other bat-borne diseases.

Habitat fragmentation reduces nest survival in an Afrotropical bird community in a biodiversity hotspot.

Ecologists have long hypothesized that fragmentation of tropical landscapes reduces avian nest success. However, this hypothesis has not been rigorously assessed because of the difficulty of finding large numbers of well-hidden nests in tropical forests. Here we report that in the East Usambara Mountains in Tanzania, which are part of the Eastern Arc Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot, that daily nest survival rate and nest success for seven of eight common understory bird species that we examined over a single breeding season were significantly lower in fragmented than in continuous forest, with the odds of nest failure for these seven species ranging from 1.9 to 196.8 times higher in fragmented than continuous forest. Cup-shaped nests were particularly vulnerable in fragments. We then examined over six breeding seasons and 14 study sites in a multivariable survival analysis the influence of landscape structure and nest location on daily nest survival for 13 common species representing 1,272 nests and four nest types (plate, cup, dome, and pouch). Across species and nest types, area, distance of nest to edge, and nest height had a dominant influence on daily nest survival, with area being positively related to nest survival and distance of nest to edge and nest height being both positively and negatively associated with daily nest survival. Our results indicate that multiple environmental factors contribute to reduce nest survival within a tropical understory bird community in a fragmented landscape and that maintaining large continuous forest is important for enhancing nest survival for Afrotropical understory birds.

Target and peripheral dose during patient repositioning with the Gamma Knife automatic positioning system (APS) device.

The GammaPlan treatment planning system does not account for the leakage and scatter dose during APS repositioning. In this study, the dose delivered to the target site and its periphery from the defocus stage and intershot couch transit (couch motion from the focus to defocus position and back) associated with APS repositioning are measured for the Gamma Knife model 4C. A stereotactic head-frame was attached to a Leksell 16 cm diameter spherical phantom with a calibrated ion chamber at its center. Using a fiducial box, CT images of the phantom were acquired and registered in the GammaPlan treatment planning system to determine the coordinates of the target (center of the phantom). An absorbed dose of 10 Gy to the 50% isodose line was prescribed to the target site for all measurements. Plans were generated for the 8, 14 and 18 mm collimator helmets to determine the relationship of measured dose to the number of repositions of the APS system and to the helmet size. The target coordinate was identical throughout entire study and there was no movement of the APS between various shots. This allowed for measurement of intershot transit dose at the target site and its periphery. The couch was paused in the defocus position, allowing defocus dose measurements at the intracranial target and periphery. Measured dose increases with frequency of repositioning and with helmet collimator size. During couch transit, the target receives more dose than peripheral regions; however, in the defocus position, the greatest dose is superior to the target site. The automatic positioning system for the Leksell Gamma Knife model 4C results in an additional dose of up to 3.87 +/- 0.07%, 4.97 +/- 0.04%, and 5.71 +/- 0.07% to the target site; its periphery receives additional dose that varies depending on its position relative to the target. There is also dose contribution to the patient in the defocus position, where the APS repositions the patient from one treatment coordinate to another. This may be important for treatment areas around critical structures within the brain. Further characterization of the defocus and transit exposures and development of a dose calculation algorithm to account for these doses would improve the accuracy of the delivered plan.

Avian Responses to Late-Season Grazing in a Shrub-Willow Floodplain.

Riparian vegetation in western North America provides important habitat for breeding birds and valuable forage for grazing livestock. Whereas a number of studies have documented the response of riparian vegetation to the removal of cattle, few have experimentally evaluated specific grazing systems. We evaluated the responses of vegetation and breeding birds to two cycles of late-season (August-September) grazing followed by 34 months of rest on the Arapaho National Wildlife Refuge, Colorado. We used a before-and-after control-impact (BACI) design, with two control (ungrazed) and two treatment ( grazed) pastures composing the experimental units. Vegetation characteristics and bird densities were quantified on sample plots prior to and following two cycles of the treatment. We found no statistical differences in vegetation change and few differences in bird-density change among pastures. Inspection of means for pastures, however, suggests that changes in shrub vigor and spatial pattern differed among ungrazed and grazed pastures and that changes in population density for three of the nine bird species and three guilds studied differed among pastures. Our results suggest that habitat for grazing-sensitive birds may be restored while still allowing late-season grazing, although the rate at which species are recovered will be slower than if all cattle are removed.

RESUMEN: La vegetación riparia del occidente de Norte América proporciona hábitats importantes para aves reproductivas y forraje valioso para ganado. Mientras numerosos estudios han documentado la respuesta de la vegetación riparia a la remoción de ganado, pocos han evaluado sistemas específicos de forrajeo experimentalmente. Evaluamos las respuestas de la vegetación y de aves reproductivas en dos ciclos de pastoreo tardío (agosto-septiembre) seguidos de 34 meses de descanso en el Refugio de Vida Silvestre Nacional Arapaho, Colorado. Utilizamos un diseño antes y después, control de impacto (ADCI), con dos pastizales control (sin pastoreo) y dos tratamientos (con pastoreo) como unidades experimentales. Se cuantificaron las características de la vegetación y las densidades de aves en las parcelas de muestreo antes y después de los dos ciclos de tratamiento. No encontramos diferencias estadísticas en el cambio de vegetación y pocas diferencias en los cambios de densidades de aves entre pastizales. Sin embargo, la revisión de las medias de los pastizales sugiere que los cambios en el vigor de los arbustos y el patrón espacial fueron diferentes entre pastizales con y sin pastoreo, y que los cambios en la densidad poblacional de tres de las nueve especies de aves y tres de los gremios estudiados difieren entre pastizales. Nuestros resultados sugieren que los hábitats para aves sensibles al pastoreo pueden ser reestablecidos aun permitiendo el pastoreo tardío, aunque la tasa de recuperación de especies será más lenta si todo el ganado es removido.