RESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early identification of risk factors for the development of severe fibrosis in children with cystic fibrosis-related liver disease (CFLD) is crucial as promising therapies emerge. METHODS: This multi-center cohort study of children with a priori defined CFLD from 1999 to 2016, was designed to evaluate the clinical utility of CF-specific characteristics and liver biomarkers assessed years prior to liver biopsy-proven CFLD to predict risk of developing severe fibrosis (F3-4) over time. Fibrosis was staged by Metavir classification. RESULTS: The overall study cohort of 42 patients (F0-2 (n = 22) and F3-4 (n = 20)) was 57% male (n = 24) with median age of 7.6 years at baseline visit versus 10.3 years at biopsy. Median FEV1 % predicted was lower in F3-4 participants at baseline versus F0-2 (59% vs. 85%; p = .002), while baseline FIB-4, APRI and GGT were higher in F3-4. Median splits for FIB-4 (≥.13), APRI (≥.36), GPR (≥.09), GGT (≥25.5), and FEV1 % (<64%) were associated with more rapid progression to F3-4 (p < .01 for all). Using a combination of change/year in FIB-4, APRI, and GPR to predict F3-4, the AUROC was .81 (95% CI, .66, .96; p < .0001). For up to 5.8 years prior, thresholds for GPR were met 6.5-fold more rapidly, and those for APRI and FIB-4 were met 2.5-fold more rapidly, in those who progressed to F3-4 than those that did not. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests mild-moderate pulmonary dysfunction and higher liver biomarker indices at baseline may be associated with faster progression of CFLD.