Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Unlocking the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease.

Red meat consumption is associated with an elevated risk of mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In contrast, forage fish, as highly nutritious, environmentally friendly, affordable, and the most abundant fish species in the ocean, are receiving increasing interest from a global food system perspective. However, little research has examined the impact of replacing red meat with forage fish in the global diet on diet-related NCDs. METHODS: We based our study on datasets of red meat projections in 2050 for 137 countries and forage fish catches. We replaced the red meat consumption in each country with forage fish (from marine habitats), without exceeding the potential supply of forage fish. We used a comparative risk assessment framework to investigate how such substitutions could reduce the global burden of diet-related NCDs in adults. RESULTS: The results of our study show that forage fish may replace only a fraction (approximately 8%) of the world's red meat due to its limited supply, but it may increase global daily per capita fish consumption close to the recommended level. Such a substitution could avoid 0.5-0.75 million deaths and 8-15 million disability-adjusted life years, concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. Forage fish as an alternative to red meat could double (or more) the number of deaths that could be avoided by simply reducing red meat consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that forage fish is a promising alternative to red meat. Policies targeting the allocation of forage fish to regions where they are needed, such as the Global South, could be more effective in maximising the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease.