Derivation and validation of an algorithm to predict transitions from community to residential long-term care among persons with dementia-A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a model to predict time-to-LTC admissions among individuals with dementia. DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study using health administrative data. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling older adults (65+) in Ontario living with dementia and assessed with the Resident Assessment Instrument for Home Care (RAI-HC) between April 1, 2010 and March 31, 2017. METHODS: Individuals in the derivation cohort (n = 95,813; assessed before March 31, 2015) were followed for up to 360 days after the index RAI-HC assessment for admission into LTC. We used a multivariable Fine Gray sub-distribution hazard model to predict the cumulative incidence of LTC entry while accounting for all-cause mortality as a competing risk. The model was validated in 34,038 older adults with dementia with an index RAI-HC assessment between April 1, 2015 and March 31, 2017. RESULTS: Within one year of a RAI-HC assessment, 35,513 (37.1%) individuals in the derivation cohort and 10,735 (31.5%) in the validation cohort entered LTC. Our algorithm was well-calibrated (Emax = 0.119, ICIavg = 0.057) and achieved a c-statistic of 0.707 (95% confidence interval: 0.703-0.712) in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: We developed an algorithm to predict time to LTC entry among individuals living with dementia. This tool can inform care planning for individuals with dementia and their family caregivers.

Comparing AI/ML approaches and classical regression for predictive modeling using large population health databases: Applications to COVID-19 case prediction.

Background: Research comparing artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods with classical statistical methods applied to large population health databases is limited. Objectives: This retrospective cohort study aimed to compare the predictive performance of AI/ML algorithms against conventional multivariate logistic regression models using linked health administrative data. Methods: Using Ontario's population health databases, we created a cohort of residents of the city of Ottawa, Ontario, who underwent a PCR test for COVID-19 between March 10, 2020, and May 13, 2021. Using demographic, socio-economic and health data (including COVID-19 PCR test results and available, symptom data), we developed predictive models for the purpose of COVID-19 case identification using the following approaches: classical multivariate logistic regression (LR); deep neural network (DNN); random forest (RF); and gradient boosting trees (GBT). Model performance comparisons were made using the area under the curve (AUC) swarm plot for 10-fold cross-validation. Results: The cohort consisted of n = 351,248 Ottawa residents tested for COVID-19 during the study period. Among whom, a total of n = 883,879 unique COVID-19 tests were performed (2.6 % positive test results). Inclusion of COVID-19 symptoms data in the analysis improved model performance and variable predictive value across all tested models (p < 0.0001), with the 10-fold cross-validation AUC increasing to near or over 0.7 in all models when symptoms data were included. In various pairwise comparisons, the GBT method had the highest predictive ability (AUC = 0.796 ± 0.017), significantly outperforming multivariate logistic regression and the other AI/ML approaches. Conclusions: Conventional multivariate regression-based models are better than some and worse than other machine learning algorithms to provide good predictive accuracy in a moderate dataset with a reasonable number of features. However, whenever possible, the AI/ML GBT approach should be considered.

Longer-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA)-related healthcare: a province-based study.

RATIONALE: Following marked reductions in sleep medicine care early in the COVID-19 pandemic, there is limited information about the recovery of these services. We explored long-term trends in obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) health services and service backlogs during the pandemic compared with pre-pandemic levels in Ontario (the most populous province of Canada). METHODS: In this retrospective population-based study using Ontario (Canada) health administrative data on adults, we compared rates of polysomnograms (PSGs), outpatient visits and positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy purchase claims during the pandemic (March 2020 to December 2022) to pre-pandemic rates (2015-2019). We calculated projected rates using monthly seasonal time series auto-regressive integrated moving-average models based on similar periods in previous years. Service backlogs were estimated from the difference between projected and observed rates. RESULTS: Compared with historical data, all service rates decreased at first during March to May 2020 and subsequently increased. By December 2022, observed service rates per 100 000 persons remained lower than projected for PSGs (September to December 2022: 113 vs 141, 95% CI: 121 to 163) and PAP claims (September to December 2022: 50 vs 60, 95% CI: 51 to 70), and returned to projected for outpatient OSA visits. By December 2022, the service backlog was 193 078 PSGs (95% CI: 139 294 to 253 075) and 57 321 PAP claims (95% CI: 27 703 to 86 938). CONCLUSION: As of December 2022, there was a sustained reduction in OSA-related health services in Ontario, Canada. The resulting service backlog has likely worsened existing problems with underdiagnosis and undertreatment of OSA and supports the adoption of flexible care delivery models for OSA that include portable technologies.

Association between a Recalled Positive Airway Pressure (PAP) Device and Incident Cancer: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: The real-world consequences of a Philips/Respironics recall for positive airway pressure (PAP) devices distributed between 2009 and 2021 are unknown. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based study using health administrative databases (Ontario, Canada) on all new adult PAP users identified through the provincial funding system, free of cancer at baseline, who initiated (claimed) PAP treatment between 2012 and 2018. Everyone was followed from the PAP claim date to the earliest of incident cancer diagnosis, death, or the end of the follow-up (March 2022). We used inverse probability of treatment weighting to balance baseline characteristics between individuals on recalled devices and those on devices from other manufacturers. Weighted hazard ratios of incident cancer were compared between groups. RESULTS: Of 231 692 individuals identified, 58 204 (25.1%) claimed recalled devices, and 173 488 (74.9%) from other manufacturers. A meaningful baseline difference between groups (standardised difference≥0.10) was noted only by location-relevant covariates; other variables were mostly equally distributed (standardised differences≤0.06). Over a median follow-up of 6.3 years (IQR: 4.9-8.0), 11 166 (4.8%) developed cancer: unadjusted rates per 10 000 Person-Year (95 CI%) of 78.8 (76.0-81.7) in the recall group versus74.0 (72.4-75.6) in others (p=0.0034). Propensity score weighting achieved excellent balance in baseline characteristics between groups (standardised differences≤0.07). On a weighted sample, there was no statistical difference in the hazard of incident cancer between groups: cause-specific hazard ratio (recalled versus others) of 0.97, 95% CI: 0.89-1.06. CONCLUSION: In our real-world population study, compared to other manufacturers and adjusting for confounders, recalled devices do not appear to be independently associated with developing cancer.

Resource Utilization and Costs Associated With Cardiogenic Shock Complicating Myocardial Infarction: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Background: Cardiogenic shock due to acute myocardial infarction (AMI-CS) is associated with significant short- and long-term morbidity and mortality. Despite this, little is known about associated cost. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the health care costs and resource use associated with AMI-CS using administrative data from the province of Ontario, Canada. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with AMI-CS from April 2009 to March 2019. One-year costs following index admission were reported at an individual level. We used generalized linear models to identify factors associated with increased cost. We stratified patients by revascularization strategy to compare cost in each group and examined total cost at a patient level per individual fiscal year. Results: We included 9,789 consecutive patients with AMI-CS across 135 centers in Ontario (mean age 70.5 years; 67.7% male). Mortality in-hospital was 30.2%, and mortality at 2 years was 45.9%. The median inpatient cost per patient was $23,912 (IQR: $12,234-$41,833) with a median total 1-year cost of $37,913 (IQR: $20,113-$66,582). The median 1-year cost was $17,730 (IQR: $9,323-$38,379) for those who died in hospital, and $45,713 (IQR: $29,688-$77,683) for those surviving to discharge, with $12,719 (IQR: $4,262-$35,275) occurring after discharge. Patients who received coronary artery bypass grafting incurred the highest cost among revascularization groups. No significant differences were observed in cost per fiscal year from 2009 to 2019. Conclusions: AMI-CS is associated with significant health care costs, both during the index hospitalization and following discharge. To optimize cost-effectiveness, future therapies should aim to reduce disability in addition to improving mortality.

Population-wide eGFR percentiles in younger adults and clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Identifying meaningful estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) reductions in younger adults (<65 years) could guide prevention efforts. To aid in interpretation and identification of young adults at risk, we examined the association of population-level eGFR percentiles relative to the median by age and clinical outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 8.7 million adults from Ontario, Canada from age 18 to 65 from 2008 to 2021 with an eGFR measure (both single outpatient value and repeat measures). We calculated median eGFR values by age and examined the association of reduced eGFR percentiles (≤10th, 5th, 2.5th and 1st) with outcomes using time to event models. Outcomes were a composite of all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiac outcomes (MACE) with/without heart failure (MACE+) and kidney failure as well as each component individually. RESULTS: From age 18 to 65, the median eGFR declined with age (range 128 to 90) and across percentiles [eGFR ranges 102 to 68 for ≤10th, 96 to 63 for ≤5th, 90 to 58 for ≤2.5th and 83 to 54 for 1st]. The adjusted rate for any adverse outcome was elevated at ≤ 10th percentile (HR 1.14 95%CI 1.10-1.18) and was consistent for all-cause mortality, MACE, MACE+ and predominant for kidney failure (HR 5.57 95%CI 3.79-8.19) compared to the median eGFR for age. Young adults with an eGFR in the lower percentiles were less likely to be referred to a specialist, have a repeat eGFR or albumin to creatinine ratio measure. CONCLUSIONS: eGFR values at the 10th percentile or lower based on a population-level distribution are associated with adverse clinical outcomes and in younger adults (18 to 39) this corresponds to a higher level of eGFR that may be underrecognized. Application of population-based eGFR percentiles may aid interpretation and improve identification of younger adults at risk.

Prenatal Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Cerebral Palsy.

Importance: Air pollution is associated with structural brain changes, disruption of neurogenesis, and neurodevelopmental disorders. The association between prenatal exposure to ambient air pollution and risk of cerebral palsy (CP), which is the most common motor disability in childhood, has not been thoroughly investigated. Objective: To evaluate the associations between prenatal residential exposure to ambient air pollution and risk of CP among children born at term gestation in a population cohort in Ontario, Canada. Design, Setting, and Participants: Population-based cohort study in Ontario, Canada using linked, province-wide health administrative databases. Participants were singleton full term births (≥37 gestational weeks) born in Ontario hospitals between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2017. Data were analyzed from January to December 2022. Exposures: Weekly average concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter with a diameter 2.5 µm (PM2.5) or smaller, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) during pregnancy assigned by maternal residence reported at delivery from satellite-based estimates and ground-level monitoring data. Main outcome and measures: CP cases were ascertained by a single inpatient hospitalization diagnosis or at least 2 outpatient diagnoses for children from birth to age 18 years. Results: The present study included 1 587 935 mother-child pairs who reached term gestation, among whom 3170 (0.2%) children were diagnosed with CP. The study population had a mean (SD) maternal age of 30.1 (5.6) years and 811 745 infants (51.1%) were male. A per IQR increase (2.7 µg/m3) in prenatal ambient PM2.5 concentration was associated with a cumulative hazard ratio (CHR) of 1.12 (95% CI, 1.03-1.21) for CP. The CHR in male infants (1.14; 95% CI, 1.02-1.26) was higher compared with the CHR in female infants (1.08; 95% CI, 0.96-1.22). No specific window of susceptibility was found for prenatal PM2.5 exposure and CP in the study population. No associations or windows of susceptibility were found for prenatal NO2 or O3 exposure and CP risk. Conclusions and relevance: In this large cohort study of singleton full term births in Canada, prenatal ambient PM2.5 exposure was associated with an increased risk of CP in offspring. Further studies are needed to explore this association and its potential biological pathways, which could advance the identification of environmental risk factors of CP in early life.

The association between alcohol retail access and health care visits attributable to alcohol for individuals with and without a history of alcohol-related health-care use.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol retail access is associated with alcohol use and related harms. This study measured whether this association differs for people with and without heavy and disordered patterns of alcohol use. DESIGN: The study used a repeated cross-sectional analysis of health administrative databases. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS/CASES: All residents of Ontario, Canada aged 10-105 years with universal health coverage (n = 10 677 604 in 2013) were included in the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Quarterly rates of emergency department (ED) and outpatient visits attributable to alcohol in 464 geographic regions between 2013 and 2019 were measured. Quarterly off-premises alcohol retail access scores were calculated (average drive to the closest seven stores) for each geographic region. Mixed-effect linear regression models adjusted for area-level socio-demographic covariates were used to examine associations between deciles of alcohol retail access and health-care visits attributable to alcohol. Stratified analyses were run for individuals with and without prior alcohol-attributable health-care use in the past 2 years. FINDINGS: We included 437 707 ED visits and 505 271 outpatient visits attributable to alcohol. After adjustment, rates of ED visits were 39% higher [rate ratio (RR) = 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.20-1.61] and rates of outpatient visits were 49% higher (RR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.26-1.75) in the highest versus lowest decile of alcohol access. There was a positive association between alcohol access and outpatient visits attributable to alcohol for individuals without prior health-care attributable to alcohol (RR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.39-1.95 for the highest to lowest decile of alcohol access) but not for individuals with prior health-care attributable to alcohol (RR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.90-1.30). There was a positive association between alcohol access and ED visits attributable to alcohol for individuals with and without prior health-care for alcohol for ED visits. CONCLUSION: In Ontario, Canada, greater alcohol retail access appears to be associated with higher rates of emergency department (ED) and outpatient health-care visits attributable to alcohol. Individuals without prior health-care for alcohol may be more susceptible to greater alcohol retail access for outpatient but not ED visits attributable to alcohol.

Mental health sequelae in survivors of cardiogenic shock complicating myocardial infarction. A population-based cohort study.

PURPOSE: Cardiogenic shock secondary to acute myocardial infarction (AMI-CS) is associated with substantial short- and long-term morbidity and mortality. However, there are limited data on mental health sequelae that survivors experience following discharge. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, population-based cohort study in Ontario, Canada of critically ill adult (≥ 18 years) survivors of AMI-CS, admitted to hospital between April 1, 2009 and March 31, 2019. We compared these patients to AMI survivors without shock. We captured outcome data using linked health administrative databases. The primary outcome was a new mental health diagnosis (a composite of mood, anxiety, or related disorders; schizophrenia/psychotic disorders; and other mental health disorders) following hospital discharge. We secondarily evaluated incidence of deliberate self-harm and death by suicide. We compared patients using overlap propensity score-weighted, cause-specific proportional hazard models. RESULTS: We included 7812 consecutive survivors of AMI-CS, from 135 centers. Mean age was 68.4 (standard deviation (SD) 12.2) years, and 70.3% were male. Median follow-up time was 767 days (interquartile range (IQR) 225-1682). Incidence of new mental health diagnosis among AMI-CS survivors was 109.6 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI) 105.4-113.9), compared with 103.8 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 102.5-105.2) among AMI survivors without shock. After propensity score adjustment, there was no difference in the risk of new mental health diagnoses following discharge [hazard ratio (HR) 0.99 (95% CI 0.94-1.03)]. Factors associated with new mental health diagnoses following AMI-CS included female sex, pre-existing mental health diagnoses, and discharge to a long-term hospital or rehabilitation institute. CONCLUSION: Survivors of AMI-CS experience substantial mental health morbidity following discharge. Risk of new mental health diagnoses was comparable between survivors of AMI with and without shock. Future research on interventions to mitigate psychiatric sequelae after AMI-CS is warranted.

Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Mental Health Disorders in the Pediatric Population: A Retrospective, Population-based Cohort Study.

Rationale: Information is limited about the association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and mental health disorders in children. Objectives: In children, 1) to evaluate the association between OSA and new mental healthcare encounters; and 2) to compare mental healthcare encounters 2 years after to 2 years before OSA treatment initiation. Methods: We conducted a retrospective longitudinal cohort study using Ontario health administrative data (Canada). Children (0-18 yr) who underwent diagnostic polysomnography (PSG) 2009-2016 and met criteria for definition of moderate-severe OSA (PSG-OSA) were propensity score weighted by baseline characteristics and compared with children who underwent PSG in the same period but did not meet the OSA definition (PSG-No-OSA). Children were followed until March 2021. Weighted cause-specific Cox proportional hazards and modified Poisson regression models were used to compare time from PSG to first mental healthcare encounter and frequency of new mental healthcare encounters per person time, respectively. Among those who underwent adenotonsillectomy (AT) or were prescribed and claimed positive airway pressure therapy (PAP), we used age-adjusted conditional logistic regression models to compare 2 years post-treatment to pretreatment odds of mental healthcare encounters. Results: Of 32,791 children analyzed, 7,724 (23.6%) children met criteria for moderate-severe OSA. In the PSG-OSA group, 7,080 (91.7%) were treated (AT or PAP). Compared with PSG-No-OSA, the PSG-OSA group had a shorter time from PSG to first mental healthcare encounter (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.12) but less frequent mental healthcare encounters in follow-up (rate ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.97). OSA treatment (AT or PAP) was associated with lower odds of mental healthcare encounters 2 years after treatment initiation compared with 2 years before (odds ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.65-0.74). Conclusions: In this large, population-based study of children who underwent PSG for sleep disorder assessment, OSA diagnosis/treatment was associated with an improvement in some mental health indicators, such as fewer new mental healthcare encounters compared with no OSA and lower odds of mental healthcare encounters compared with before OSA treatment.

Associations of preoperative anaemia with healthcare resource use and outcomes after colorectal surgery: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative anaemia is common in patient undergoing colorectal surgery. Understanding the population-level costs of preoperative anaemia will inform development and evaluation of anaemia management at health system levels. METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study using linked, routinely collected data, including residents from Ontario, Canada, aged ≥18 yr who underwent an elective colorectal resection between 2012 and 2022. Primary exposure was preoperative anaemia (haemoglobin <130 g L-1 in males; <120 g L-1 in females). Primary outcome was 30-day costs in 2022 Canadian dollars (CAD), from the perspective of a publicly funded healthcare system. Secondary outcomes included red blood cell transfusion, major adverse events (MAEs), length of stay (LOS), days alive at home (DAH), and readmissions. RESULTS: We included 54,286 patients, with mean 65.3 (range 18-102) years of age and 49.0% females, among which 21 264 (39.2%) had preoperative anaemia. There was an absolute adjusted cost increase of $2671 per person at 30 days after surgery attributable to preoperative anaemia (ratio of means [RoM] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.06). Compared with the control group, 30-day risks of transfusion (odds ratio [OR] 4.34, 95% CI 4.04-4.66), MAEs (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.03-1.27), LOS (RoM 1.08, 95% CI 1.07-1.10), and readmissions (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.08-1.24) were higher in the anaemia group, with reduced DAH (RoM 0.95, 95% CI 0.95-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately $2671 CAD per person in 30-day health system costs are attributable to preoperative anaemia after colorectal surgery in Ontario, Canada.

The relationship between the morningness-eveningness questionnaire and incident cancer: A historical clinical cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to explore the relationship between chronotype measured by the total Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ) score and incident cancer. METHODS: We used clinical and provincial health administrative data on consecutive adults who underwent a Level 1 Polysomnography (PSG) and completed the MEQ between 2010 and 2015 in an academic hospital (Ontario, Canada) and were cancer-free at baseline. Cancer status was derived from the Ontario Cancer Registry. Individuals were followed until death or March 31, 2020. We used multivariable Cox cause-specific regressions to address the research objective. RESULTS: Of 3,004 individuals, 1,781 were analyzed: a median age of 54 years (IQR: 40-64) and 838 (47.1%) men. The median total MEQ score was 63 (IQR: 55-69); 61 (3.4%) were classified as evening (≤41), 536 (30.1%) as intermediate (42-58), and 1,184 (66.5%) as morning chronotypes (≥59). Over a median of 7 years (IQR: 5-8), 120 (6.7%) developed cancer. A U-shape relationship was found between the total MEQ score and an increased hazard of incident cancer, controlling for PSG measures of sleep apnea severity and sleep architecture, demographics, and comorbidities. Compared to the median of 63.0, a total MEQ score greater or less than the median was associated with an increased hazard of incident cancer, with the largest effect for those with a total score ≥76 (e.g., HR of a MEQ total score of 78 vs. 63: 2.01, 95% CI: 1.09-3.71). CONCLUSION: The U-shaped curve may reflect deviations from a standard circadian tendency, which may stress biological systems and influence malignancy risk.

A quasi-experimental evaluation of the association between implementation of Quality-Based Procedures funding for hip fractures and improvements in processes and outcomes for hip fracture patients in Ontario: an interrupted time series analysis.

PURPOSE: In 2013, Ontario introduced a patient-based funding model for hip fracture care (Quality-Based Procedures [QBP]). The association of QBP implementation with changes in processes and outcomes has not been evaluated. METHODS: We conducted a quasi-experimental study using linked health data for adult hip fractures as an interrupted time series. The pre-QBP period was from 2008 to 2012 and the post-QBP period was from 2014 to 2018; 2013 was excluded as a wash-in period. We used segmented regression analyses to estimate the association of QBP implementation with changes in processes (surgery in less than two days from admission, use of echocardiography, use of nerve blocks, and provision of geriatric care) and clinical outcomes (90-day mortality, 90-day readmissions, length of stay, and days alive at home). We estimated the immediate (level) change, trend (slope) postimplementation, and total counterfactual differences. Sensitivity analyses included case-mix adjustment and stratification by hospital type and procedure. RESULTS: We identified 45,500 patients in the pre-QBP period and 41,256 patients in the post-QBP period. There was a significant total counterfactual increase in the use of nerve blocks (11.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.2 to 16.0) and a decrease in the use of echocardiography (-2.5%; 95% CI, -3.7 to -1.3) after QBP implementation. The implementation of QBP was not associated with a clinically or statistically meaningful change in 90-day mortality, 90-day readmission, length of stay, or number of days alive at home. CONCLUSION: Evaluation of the QBP program is crucial to inform ongoing and future changes to policy and funding for hip fracture care. The introduction of the QBP Hip Fracture program, supported by evidence-based recommendations, was associated with improved application of some evidence-based processes of care but no changes in clinical outcomes. There is a need for ongoing development and evaluation of funding models to identify optimal strategies to improve the value and outcomes of hip fracture care. STUDY REGISTRATION: Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/2938h/ ); first posted 13 June 2022.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: En 2013, l'Ontario a mis en place un modèle de financement axé sur les patient·es pour les soins suivant une fracture de la hanche (procédures fondées sur la qualité [PFQ]). L'association entre la mise en œuvre des PFQ et les changements dans les processus et les devenirs n'a pas été évaluée. MéTHODE: Nous avons mené une étude quasi expérimentale en utilisant des données de santé couplées pour les fractures de la hanche chez l'adulte comme une série chronologique interrompue. La période précédant les PFQ s'étendait de 2008 à 2012, et la période subséquente à l'implantation des PFQ allait de 2014 à 2018. L'année 2013 a été exclue en tant que période de rodage. Nous avons utilisé des analyses de régression segmentées pour estimer l'association entre la mise en œuvre des PFQ avec des changements aux processus (chirurgie en moins que deux jours suivant l'admission, utilisation de l'échocardiographie, utilisation de blocs nerveux et prestation de soins gériatriques) et des issues cliniques (mortalité à 90 jours, réadmissions à 90 jours, durée de séjour et jours de vie à domicile). Nous avons estimé le changement immédiat (niveau), la tendance (pente) après la mise en œuvre et les différences contrefactuelles totales. Les analyses de sensibilité comprenaient l'ajustement et la stratification de la combinaison de cas par type d'hôpital et par procédure. RéSULTATS: Nous avons identifié 45 500 patient·es dans la période pré-PFQ et 41 256 patient·es dans la période post-PFQ. Il y a eu une augmentation contrefactuelle totale significative de l'utilisation de blocs nerveux (11,1 %; intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95 %, 6,2 à 16,0) et une diminution de l'utilisation de l'échocardiographie (−2,5 %; IC 95 %, −3,7 à −1,3) après la mise en œuvre des PFQ. La mise en œuvre des PFQ n'a pas été associée à un changement cliniquement ou statistiquement significatif de la mortalité à 90 jours, de la réadmission à 90 jours, de la durée de séjour ou du nombre de jours de vie à domicile. CONCLUSION: L'évaluation du programme de PFQ est cruciale pour guider les changements actuels et futurs aux politiques et au financement des soins suivant une fracture de la hanche. La mise en place du programme de PFQ pour les fractures de la hanche, appuyée par des recommandations fondées sur des données probantes, a été associée à une meilleure application de certains processus de soins fondés sur des données probantes, mais à aucun changement dans les devenirs cliniques. Il est nécessaire d'élaborer et d'évaluer continuellement des modèles de financement afin de déterminer les stratégies optimales pour améliorer la valeur et les devenirs des soins suivant une fracture de la hanche. ENREGISTREMENT DE L'éTUDE: Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/2938h/ ); première publication le 13 juin 2022.

Residential surrounding greenness and the incidence of childhood asthma: Findings from a population-based cohort in Ontario, Canada.

Several epidemiological studies have investigated the possible role that living in areas with greater amounts of greenspace has on the incidence of childhood asthma. These findings have been inconsistent, and few studies explored the relevance of timing of exposure. We investigated the role of residential surrounding greenness on the risk of incident asthma using a population-based retrospective cohort study. We included 982,131 singleton births in Ontario, Canada between 2006 and 2013. Two measures of greenness, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Green View Index (GVI), were assigned to the residential histories of these infants from pregnancy through to 12 years of age. Longitudinally-based diagnoses of asthma were determined by using provincial administrative health data. The extended Cox hazards model was used to characterize associations between greenness measures and asthma (up to age 12 years) while adjusting for several risk factors. In a fully adjusted model, that included a term for traffic-related air pollution (NO2), we found no association between an interquartile range increase (0.08) of the NDVI during childhood and asthma incidence (HR = 0.99; 95 % CI = 0.99-1.01). In contrast, we found that an 0.08 increase in NDVI during childhood reduced the risk of asthma in children 7-12 years of age by 14 % (HR = 0.86, 95 % CI:0.79-0.95). Seasonal differences in the association between greenness and asthma were noted. Our findings suggest that residential proximity to greenness reduces the risk of asthma in children aged 7-12.

Changes in Cannabis-Attributable Hospitalizations Following Nonmedical Cannabis Legalization in Canada.

Importance: The impact of adult-use cannabis legalization and subsequent commercialization (ie, increasing store and product access) on hospitalizations in Canada is unclear. Objectives: To examine changes in overall and subtypes of hospitalizations due to cannabis and associated factors following legalization in Canada and to compare changes between provinces. Design, Setting, and Participants: This repeated cross-sectional analysis included all acute hospitalizations for individuals aged 15 to 105 years in Canada's 4 most populous provinces (Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia, population 26.9 million individuals in 2018). Data were obtained from routinely collected health administrative databases. Immediate and gradual changes in the age- and sex-standardized rates of hospitalizations due to cannabis were compared using an interrupted time series design over 3 time periods: prelegalization (January 2015 to September 2018), legalization with product and store restrictions (October 2018 to February 2020), and commercialization, which overlapped with the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020 to March 2021). Main Outcomes and Measures: Rates of hospitalizations due to cannabis per 100 000 individuals and per 1000 all-cause hospital admissions. Results: There were 105 203 hospitalizations due to cannabis over the 7-year study period, 69 192 of which (65.8%) were among male individuals, and 34 678 (33%) of which were among individuals aged 15 to 24 years. Overall, the age- and sex-standardized rate of hospitalizations increased 1.62 times between January 2015 (3.99 per 100 000 individuals) and March 2021 (6.46 per 100 000 individuals). The largest relative increase in hospitalizations was for cannabis-induced psychosis (rate ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.34 to 1.47 during the commercialization period relative to the prelegalization period). Nationally, legalization with restrictions was associated with a gradual monthly decrease of -0.06 (95% CI -0.08 to -0.03) in hospitalizations due to cannabis per 100 000 individuals. Commercialization and the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with an immediate increase of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.30 to 1.30) hospitalizations due to cannabis per 100 000 individuals. There was provincial variation in changes, with provinces with less mature legal markets experiencing the greatest declines immediately following legalization. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that legalization with restrictions was not associated with an increase in hospitalizations due to cannabis but commercialization was. The findings suggest that commercialization of cannabis may be associated with increases in cannabis-related health harms, including cannabis-induced psychosis.

Screening for postpartum depression and risk of suicidality with obstetrical patients: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy is a vulnerable time where the physical and social stress of the COVID-19 pandemic affects psychological health, including postpartum depression (PPD). This study is designed to estimate the prevalence and correlates of PPD and risk of suicidality among individuals who gave birth during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We surveyed individuals who gave birth at The Ottawa Hospital and were ≥ 20 days postpartum, between March 17 and June 16, 2020. A PPD screen consisted of a score ≥ 13 using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. A score of 1, 2, or 3 on item 10 ("The thought of harming myself has occurred to me") indicates risk of suicidality. If a participant scores greater than ≥ 13 or ≥ 1 on item 10 they were flagged for PPD, the Principal Investigator (DEC) was notified within 24 h of survey completion for a chart review and to assure follow-up. Modified Poisson multivariable regression models were used to identify factors associated with PPD and risk of suicidality using adjusted risk ratios (aRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Of the 216 respondents, 64 (30%) screened positive for PPD and 17 (8%) screened positive for risk of suicidality. The maternal median age of the total sample was 33 years (IQR: 30-36) and the infant median age at the time of the survey was 76 days (IQR: 66-90). Most participants reported some form of positive coping strategies during the pandemic (97%) (e.g. connecting with friends and family, exercising, getting professional help) and 139 (64%) reported negative coping patterns (e.g. over/under eating, sleep problems). In total, 47 (22%) had pre-pregnancy anxiety and/or depression. Negative coping (aRR:2.90, 95% CI: 1.56-5.37) and pre-existing anxiety/depression (aRR:2.03, 95% CI:1.32-3.11) were associated with PPD. Pre-existing anxiety/depression (aRR:3.16, 95% CI:1.28-7.81) was associated with risk of suicidality. CONCLUSIONS: Almost a third of participants in this study screened positive for PPD and 8% for risk of suicidality. Mental health screening and techniques to foster positive coping skills/strategies are important areas to optimize postpartum mental health.

Long-Term Outcomes of Cardiogenic Shock Complicating Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Cardiogenic shock secondary to acute myocardial infarction (AMI-CS) is associated with substantial short-term mortality; however, there are limited data on long-term outcomes and trends. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to examine long-term outcomes of AMI-CS patients. METHODS: This was a population-based, retrospective cohort study in Ontario, Canada of critically ill adult patients with AMI-CS who were admitted to hospitals between April 1, 2009 and March 31, 2019. Outcome data were captured using linked health administrative databases. RESULTS: A total of 9,789 consecutive patients with AMI-CS from 135 centers were included. The mean age was 70.5 ± 12.3 years, and 67.7% were male. The incidence of AMI-CS was 8.2 per 100,000 person-years, and it increased over the study period. Critical care interventions were common, with 5,422 (55.4%) undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation, 1,425 (14.6%) undergoing renal replacement therapy, and 1,484 (15.2%) receiving mechanical circulatory support. A total of 2,961 patients (30.2%) died in the hospital, and 4,004 (40.9%) died by 1 year. Mortality at 5 years was 58.9%. Small improvements in short- and long-term mortality were seen over the study period. Among survivors to discharge, 2,870 (42.0%) required increased support in care from their preadmission baseline, 3,244 (47.5%) were readmitted to the hospital within 1 year, and 1,047 (15.3%) died within 1 year. The mean number of days at home in the year following discharge was 307.9 ± 109.6. CONCLUSIONS: Short- and long-term mortality among patients with AMI-CS is high, with minimal improvement over time. AMI-CS survivors experience significant morbidity, with high risks of readmission and death. Future studies should evaluate interventions to minimize postdischarge morbidity and mortality among AMI-CS survivors.

Attributable Perioperative Cost of Frailty after Major, Elective Noncardiac Surgery: A Population-based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with frailty consistently experience higher rates of perioperative morbidity and mortality; however, costs attributable to frailty remain poorly defined. This study sought to identify older patients with and without frailty using a validated, multidimensional frailty index and estimated the attributable costs in the year after major, elective noncardiac surgery. METHODS: The authors conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study of all patients 66 yr or older having major, elective noncardiac surgery between April 1, 2012, and March 31, 2018, using linked health data obtained from an independent research institute (ICES) in Ontario, Canada. All data were collected using standard methods from the date of surgery to the end of 1-yr follow-up. The presence or absence of preoperative frailty was determined using a multidimensional frailty index. The primary outcome was total health system costs in the year after surgery using a validated patient-level costing method capturing direct and indirect costs. Secondary outcomes included costs to postoperative days 30 and 90 along with sensitivity analyses and evaluation of effect modifiers. RESULTS: Of 171,576 patients, 23,219 (13.5%) were identified with preoperative frailty. Unadjusted costs were higher among patients with frailty (ratio of means 1.79, 95% CI 1.76 to 1.83). After adjusting for confounders, an absolute cost increase of $11,828 Canadian dollar (ratio of means 1.53; 95% CI, 1.51 to 1.56) was attributable to frailty. This association was attenuated with additional control for comorbidities (ratio of means 1.24, 95% CI, 1.22 to 1.26). Among contributors to total costs, frailty was most strongly associated with increased postacute care costs. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with preoperative frailty having elective surgery, the authors estimate that attributable costs are increased 1.5-fold in the year after major, elective noncardiac surgery. These data inform resource allocation for patients with frailty.