Safe and just Earth system boundaries.

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1-3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

Sources of water vapor and their effects on water isotopes in precipitation in the Indian monsoon region: a model-based assessment.

Climate records of ratios of stable water isotopes of oxygen (δ18O) are used to reconstruct the past Indian monsoon precipitation. Identifying the sources of water vapor is important in understanding the role of monsoonal circulation in the δ18O values, to aid in monsoon reconstructions. Here, using an isotope-enabled Earth system model, we estimate the contributions of oceanic and terrestrial water vapor sources to two major precipitation seasons in India-the Southwest monsoon and the Northeast monsoon, and their effects on the δ18O in precipitation (δ18Op). We find that the two monsoon seasons have different dominant sources of water vapor because of the reversal in atmospheric circulation. While Indian Ocean regions, Arabian Sea, and recycling are the major sources of the Southwest monsoon precipitation, North Pacific Ocean and recycling are two crucial sources of Northeast monsoon precipitation. The δ18Op of the Southwest monsoon precipitation is determined by contributions from the Indian Ocean sources and recycling. Despite reduced precipitation, more negative δ18Op values are simulated in the Northeast monsoon season due to larger negative δ18Op contributions from the North Pacific. Our results imply that changes in atmospheric circulation and water vapor sources in past climates can influence climate reconstructions using δ18O.