Pulmonary SARS-CoV-2 infection leads to para-infectious immune activation in the brain.

Neurological complications, including encephalopathy and stroke, occur in a significant proportion of COVID-19 cases but viral protein is seldom detected in the brain parenchyma. To model this situation, we developed a novel low-inoculum K18-hACE2 mouse model of SARS-CoV-2 infection during which active viral replication was consistently seen in mouse lungs but not in the brain. We found that several mediators previously associated with encephalopathy in clinical samples were upregulated in the lung, including CCL2, and IL-6. In addition, several inflammatory mediations, including CCL4, IFNγ, IL-17A, were upregulated in the brain, associated with microglial reactivity. Parallel in vitro experiments demonstrated that the filtered supernatant from SARS-CoV-2 virion exposed brain endothelial cells induced activation of uninfected microglia. This model successfully recreates SARS-CoV-2 virus-associated para-infectious brain inflammation which can be used to study the pathophysiology of the neurological complications and the identification of potential immune targets for treatment.

Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 cognitive deficits at one year are global and associated with elevated brain injury markers and grey matter volume reduction.

The spectrum, pathophysiology, and recovery trajectory of persistent post-COVID-19 cognitive deficits are unknown, limiting our ability to develop prevention and treatment strategies. We report the one-year cognitive, serum biomarker, and neuroimaging findings from a prospective, national study of cognition in 351 COVID-19 patients who had required hospitalisation, compared to 2,927 normative matched controls. Cognitive deficits were global and associated with elevated brain injury markers, and reduced anterior cingulate cortex volume one year after COVID-19. The severity of the initial infective insult, post-acute psychiatric symptoms, and a history of encephalopathy were associated with greatest deficits. There was strong concordance between subjective and objective cognitive deficits. Longitudinal follow-up in 106 patients demonstrated a trend toward recovery. Together, these findings support the hypothesis that brain injury in moderate to severe COVID-19 may be immune-mediated, and should guide the development of therapeutic strategies.

Gas Chromatography-Sensor System Aids Diagnosis of Inflammatory Bowel Disease, and Separates Crohn's from Ulcerative Colitis, in Children.

The diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in children and the need to distinguish between subtypes (Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC)) requires lengthy investigative and invasive procedures. Non-invasive, rapid, and cost-effective tests to support these diagnoses are needed. Faecal volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are distinctive in IBD. VOC profiles can be rapidly determined using a gas chromatography-sensor device (OdoReader©). In an inception-cohort of children presenting with suspected IBD, we directly compared the diagnostic fidelity of faecal calprotectin (FCP, a non-specific protein marker of intestinal inflammation) with OdoReader© VOC profiles of children subsequently diagnosed with IBD with matched controls diagnosed with other gastrointestinal conditions. The OdoReader© was 82% (95% confidence interval 75-89%) sensitive and 71% (61-80%) specific but did not outperform FCP (sensitivity 93% (77-99%) and specificity 86% (67-96%); 250 µg/g FCP cut off) in the diagnosis of IBD from other gastrointestinal conditions when validated in a separate sample from the same cohort. However, unlike FCP and better than other similar technologies, the OdoReader© could distinguish paediatric CD from UC (up to 88% (82-93%) sensitivity and 80% (71-89%) specificity in the validation set) and justifies further validation in larger studies. A non-invasive test based on VOCs could help streamline and limit invasive investigations in children.

Faecal volatile organic compounds differ according to inflammatory bowel disease sub-type, severity, and response to treatment in paediatric patients.

BACKGROUND: Faecal volatile organic compounds (VOCs) differ with disease sub-type and activity in adults with established inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) taking therapy. OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns of faecal VOCs in children newly presented with IBD according to disease sub-type, severity, and response to treatment. METHODS: Children presenting with suspected IBD were recruited from three UK hospitals. Children in whom IBD was diagnosed were matched with a non-IBD child for age, sex, and recruitment site. Faecal VOCs were characterised by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry at presentation and 3 months later in children with IBD. RESULTS: In 132 case/control pairs, median (inter-quartile range) age in IBD was 13.3 years (10.2-14.7) and 38.6% were female. Compared with controls, the mean abundance of 27/62 (43.6%) faecal VOCs was statistically significantly decreased in Crohn's disease (CD), ulcerative colitis (UC) or both especially amongst ketones/diketones, fatty acids, and alcohols (p < 0.05). Short-chain, medium chain, and branched chain fatty acids were markedly reduced in severe colitis (p < 0.05). Despite clinical improvement in many children with IBD, the number and abundance of almost all VOCs did not increase following treatment, suggesting persistent dysbiosis. Oct-1-en-3-ol was increased in CD (p = 0.001) and UC (p = 0.012) compared with controls and decreased following treatment in UC (p = 0.01). In CD, propan-1-ol was significantly greater than controls (p < 0.001) and extensive colitis (p = 0.001) and fell with treatment (p = 0.05). Phenol was significantly greater in CD (p < 0.001) and fell with treatment in both CD (p = 0.02) and UC (p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Characterisation of faecal VOCs in an inception cohort of children with IBD reveals patterns associated with diagnosis, disease activity, and extent. Further work should investigate the relationship between VOCs and the microbiome in IBD and their role in diagnosis and disease monitoring.

Diagnostic markers of acute encephalitis syndrome and COVID-associated multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children from Southern India.

Acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) in children poses a significant public health challenge in India. This study aims to explore the utility of host inflammatory mediators and neurofilament (NfL) levels in distinguishing etiologies, assessing disease severity, and predicting outcomes in AES. We assessed 12 mediators in serum (n = 58) and 11 in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) (n = 42) from 62 children with AES due to scrub typhus, viral etiologies, and COVID-associated multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) in Southern India. Additionally, NfL levels in serum (n = 20) and CSF (n = 18) were examined. Clinical data, including Glasgow coma scale (GCS) and Liverpool outcome scores, were recorded. Examining serum and CSF markers in the three AES etiology groups revealed notable distinctions, with scrub typhus differing significantly from viral and MIS-C causes. Viral causes had elevated serum CCL11 and CCL2 compared with scrub typhus, while MIS-C cases showed higher HGF levels than scrub typhus. However, CSF analysis showed a distinct pattern with the scrub typhus group exhibiting elevated levels of IL-1RA, IL-1ß, and TNF compared with MIS-C, and lower CCL2 levels compared with the viral group. Modeling the characteristic features, we identified that age ≥3 years with serum CCL11 < 180 pg/mL effectively distinguished scrub typhus from other AES causes. Elevated serum CCL11, HGF, and IL-6:IL-10 ratio were associated with poor outcomes (p = 0.038, 0.005, 0.02). Positive CSF and serum NfL correlation, and negative GCS and serum NfL correlation were observed. Median NfL levels were higher in children with abnormal admission GCS and poor outcomes. Measuring immune mediators and brain injury markers in AES provides valuable diagnostic insights, with the potential to facilitate rapid diagnosis and prognosis. The correlation between CSF and serum NfL, along with distinctive serum cytokine profiles across various etiologies, indicates the adequacy of blood samples alone for assessment and monitoring. The association of elevated levels of CCL11, HGF, and an increased IL-6:IL-10 ratio with adverse outcomes suggests promising avenues for therapeutic exploration, warranting further investigation.

Cognitive domains affected post-COVID-19; a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This review aims to characterize the pattern of post-COVID-19 cognitive impairment, allowing better prediction of impact on daily function to inform clinical management and rehabilitation. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis of neurocognitive sequelae following COVID-19 was conducted, following PRISMA-S guidelines. Studies were included if they reported domain-specific cognitive assessment in patients with COVID-19 at >4 weeks post-infection. Studies were deemed high-quality if they had >40 participants, utilized healthy controls, had low attrition rates and mitigated for confounders. RESULTS: Five of the seven primary Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) cognitive domains were assessed by enough high-quality studies to facilitate meta-analysis. Medium effect sizes indicating impairment in patients post-COVID-19 versus controls were seen across executive function (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.45), learning and memory (SMD -0.55), complex attention (SMD -0.54) and language (SMD -0.54), with perceptual motor function appearing to be impacted to a greater degree (SMD -0.70). A narrative synthesis of the 56 low-quality studies also suggested no obvious pattern of impairment. CONCLUSIONS: This review found moderate impairments across multiple domains of cognition in patients post-COVID-19, with no specific pattern. The reported literature was significantly heterogeneous, with a wide variety of cognitive tasks, small sample sizes and disparate initial disease severities limiting interpretability. The finding of consistent impairment across a range of cognitive tasks suggests broad, as opposed to domain-specific, brain dysfunction. Future studies should utilize a harmonized test battery to facilitate inter-study comparisons, whilst also accounting for the interactions between COVID-19, neurological sequelae and mental health, the interplay between which might explain cognitive impairment.

COVID-19 risk mitigation in reopening mass cultural events: population-based observational study for the UK Events Research Programme in Liverpool City Region.

OBJECTIVES: To understand severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission risks, perceived risks and the feasibility of risk mitigations from experimental mass cultural events before coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions were lifted. DESIGN: Prospective, population-wide observational study. SETTING: Four events (two nightclubs, an outdoor music festival and a business conference) open to Liverpool City Region UK residents, requiring a negative lateral flow test (LFT) within the 36 h before the event, but not requiring social distancing or face-coverings. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 12,256 individuals attending one or more events between 28 April and 2 May 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: SARS-CoV-2 infections detected using audience self-swabbed (5-7 days post-event) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests, with viral genomic analysis of cases, plus linked National Health Service COVID-19 testing data. Audience experiences were gathered via questionnaires, focus groups and social media. Indoor CO2 concentrations were monitored. RESULTS: A total of 12 PCR-positive cases (likely 4 index, 8 primary or secondary), 10 from the nightclubs. Two further cases had positive LFTs but no PCR. A total of 11,896 (97.1%) participants with scanned tickets were matched to a negative pre-event LFT: 4972 (40.6%) returned a PCR within a week. CO2 concentrations showed areas for improving ventilation at the nightclubs. Population infection rates were low, yet with a concurrent outbreak of >50 linked cases around a local swimming pool without equivalent risk mitigations. Audience anxiety was low and enjoyment high. CONCLUSIONS: We observed minor SARS-CoV-2 transmission and low perceived risks around events when prevalence was low and risk mitigations prominent. Partnership between audiences, event organisers and public health services, supported by information systems with real-time linked data, can improve health security for mass cultural events.

Para-infectious brain injury in COVID-19 persists at follow-up despite attenuated cytokine and autoantibody responses.

To understand neurological complications of COVID-19 better both acutely and for recovery, we measured markers of brain injury, inflammatory mediators, and autoantibodies in 203 hospitalised participants; 111 with acute sera (1-11 days post-admission) and 92 convalescent sera (56 with COVID-19-associated neurological diagnoses). Here we show that compared to 60 uninfected controls, tTau, GFAP, NfL, and UCH-L1 are increased with COVID-19 infection at acute timepoints and NfL and GFAP are significantly higher in participants with neurological complications. Inflammatory mediators (IL-6, IL-12p40, HGF, M-CSF, CCL2, and IL-1RA) are associated with both altered consciousness and markers of brain injury. Autoantibodies are more common in COVID-19 than controls and some (including against MYL7, UCH-L1, and GRIN3B) are more frequent with altered consciousness. Additionally, convalescent participants with neurological complications show elevated GFAP and NfL, unrelated to attenuated systemic inflammatory mediators and to autoantibody responses. Overall, neurological complications of COVID-19 are associated with evidence of neuroglial injury in both acute and late disease and these correlate with dysregulated innate and adaptive immune responses acutely.

Clinical predictors of encephalitis in UK adults-A multi-centre prospective observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Encephalitis, brain inflammation and swelling, most often caused by an infection or the body's immune defences, can have devastating consequences, especially if diagnosed late. We looked for clinical predictors of different types of encephalitis to help clinicians consider earlier treatment. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre prospective observational cohort study (ENCEPH-UK) of adults (> 16 years) with suspected encephalitis at 31 UK hospitals. We evaluated clinical features and investigated for infectious and autoimmune causes. RESULTS: 341 patients were enrolled between December 2012 and December 2015 and followed up for 12 months. 233 had encephalitis, of whom 65 (28%) had HSV, 38 (16%) had confirmed or probable autoimmune encephalitis, and 87 (37%) had no cause found. The median time from admission to 1st dose of aciclovir for those with HSV was 14 hours (IQR 5-50); time to 1st dose of immunosuppressant for the autoimmune group was 125 hours (IQR 45-250). Compared to non-HSV encephalitis, patients with HSV more often had fever, lower serum sodium and lacked a rash. Those with probable or confirmed autoimmune encephalitis were more likely to be female, have abnormal movements, normal serum sodium levels and a cerebrospinal fluid white cell count < 20 cells x106/L, but they were less likely to have a febrile illness. CONCLUSIONS: Initiation of treatment for autoimmune encephalitis is delayed considerably compared with HSV encephalitis. Clinical features can help identify patients with autoimmune disease and could be used to initiate earlier presumptive therapy.

Acute seizure risk in patients with encephalitis: development and validation of clinical prediction models from two independent prospective multicentre cohorts.

Objective: In patients with encephalitis, the development of acute symptomatic seizures is highly variable, but when present is associated with a worse outcome. We aimed to determine the factors associated with seizures in encephalitis and develop a clinical prediction model. Methods: We analysed 203 patients from 24 English hospitals (2005-2008) (Cohort 1). Outcome measures were seizures prior to and during admission, inpatient seizures and status epilepticus. A binary logistic regression risk model was converted to a clinical score and independently validated on an additional 233 patients from 31 UK hospitals (2013-2016) (Cohort 2). Results: In Cohort 1, 121 (60%) patients had a seizure including 103 (51%) with inpatient seizures. Admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤8/15 was predictive of subsequent inpatient seizures (OR (95% CI) 5.55 (2.10 to 14.64), p<0.001), including in those without a history of prior seizures at presentation (OR 6.57 (95% CI 1.37 to 31.5), p=0.025).A clinical model of overall seizure risk identified admission GCS along with aetiology (autoantibody-associated OR 11.99 (95% CI 2.09 to 68.86) and Herpes simplex virus 3.58 (95% CI 1.06 to 12.12)) (area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) =0.75 (95% CI 0.701 to 0.848), p<0.001). The same model was externally validated in Cohort 2 (AUROC=0.744 (95% CI 0.677 to 0.811), p<0.001). A clinical scoring system for stratifying inpatient seizure risk by decile demonstrated good discrimination using variables available on admission; age, GCS and fever (AUROC=0.716 (95% CI 0.634 to 0.798), p<0.001) and once probable aetiology established (AUROC=0.761 (95% CI 0.6840.839), p<0.001). Conclusion: Age, GCS, fever and aetiology can effectively stratify acute seizure risk in patients with encephalitis. These findings can support the development of targeted interventions and aid clinical trial design for antiseizure medication prophylaxis.

Attainment of low disease activity and remission targets reduces the risk of severe flare and new damage in childhood lupus.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the achievability and effect of attaining low disease activity (LDA) or remission in childhood-onset SLE (cSLE). METHODS: Attainment of three adult-SLE derived definitions of LDA (LLDAS, LA, Toronto-LDA), and four definitions of remission (clinical-SLEDAI-defined remission on/off treatment, pBILAG-defined remission on/off treatment) was assessed in UK JSLE Cohort Study patients longitudinally. Prentice-Williams-Petersen gap recurrent event models assessed the impact of LDA/remission attainment on severe flare/new damage. RESULTS: LLDAS, LA and Toronto-LDA targets were reached in 67%, 73% and 32% of patients, after a median of 18, 15 or 17 months, respectively. Cumulatively, LLDAS, LA and Toronto-LDA was attained for a median of 23%, 31% and 19% of total follow-up-time, respectively. Remission on-treatment was more common (61% cSLEDAI-defined, 42% pBILAG-defined) than remission off-treatment (31% cSLEDAI-defined, 21% pBILAG-defined). Attainment of all target states, and disease duration (>1 year), significantly reduced the hazard of severe flare (P < 0.001). As cumulative time in each target increased, hazard of severe flare progressively reduced. LLDAS attainment reduced the hazard of severe flare more than LA or Toronto-LDA (P < 0.001). Attainment of LLDAS and all remission definitions led to a statistically comparable reduction in the hazards of severe flare (P > 0.05). Attainment of all targets reduced the hazards of new damage (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study demonstrating that adult-SLE-derived definitions of LDA/remission are achievable in cSLE, significantly reducing risk of severe flare/new damage. Of the LDA definitions, LLDAS performed best, leading to a statistically comparable reduction in the hazards of severe flare to attainment of clinical remission.

Utility of established prognostic scores in COVID-19 hospital admissions: multicentre prospective evaluation of CURB-65, NEWS2 and qSOFA.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing, yet, due to the lack of a COVID-19-specific tool, clinicians must use pre-existing illness severity scores for initial prognostication. However, the validity of such scores in COVID-19 is unknown. METHODS: The North West Collaborative Organisation for Respiratory Research performed a multicentre prospective evaluation of adult patients admitted to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 during a 2-week period in April 2020. Clinical variables measured as part of usual care at presentation to the hospital were recorded, including the Confusion, Urea, Respiratory Rate, Blood Pressure and Age Above or Below 65 Years (CURB-65), National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and Quick Sequential (Sepsis-Related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores. The primary outcome of interest was 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Data were collected for 830 people with COVID-19 admitted across seven hospitals. By 30 days, a total of 300 (36.1%) had died and 142 (17.1%) had been in the intensive care unit. All scores underestimated mortality compared with pre-COVID-19 cohorts, and overall prognostic performance was generally poor. Among the 'low-risk' categories (CURB-65 score<2, NEWS2<5 and qSOFA score<2), 30-day mortality was 16.7%, 32.9% and 21.4%, respectively. NEWS2≥5 had a negative predictive value of 98% for early mortality. Multivariable logistic regression identified features of respiratory compromise rather than circulatory collapse as most relevant prognostic variables. CONCLUSION: In the setting of COVID-19, existing prognostic scores underestimated risk. The design of new prognostic tools should focus on features of respiratory compromise rather than circulatory collapse. We provide a baseline set of variables which are relevant to COVID-19 outcomes and may be used as a basis for developing a bespoke COVID-19 prognostication tool.

Identification of predicted individual treatment effects in randomized clinical trials.

In most medical research, treatment effectiveness is assessed using the average treatment effect or some version of subgroup analysis. The practice of individualized or precision medicine, however, requires new approaches that predict how an individual will respond to treatment, rather than relying on aggregate measures of effect. In this study, we present a conceptual framework for estimating individual treatment effects, referred to as predicted individual treatment effects. We first apply the predicted individual treatment effect approach to a randomized controlled trial designed to improve behavioral and physical symptoms. Despite trivial average effects of the intervention, we show substantial heterogeneity in predicted individual treatment response using the predicted individual treatment effect approach. The predicted individual treatment effects can be used to predict individuals for whom the intervention may be most effective (or harmful). Next, we conduct a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the accuracy of predicted individual treatment effects. We compare the performance of two methods used to obtain predictions: multiple imputation and non-parametric random decision trees. Results showed that, on average, both predictive methods produced accurate estimates at the individual level; however, the random decision trees tended to underestimate the predicted individual treatment effect for people at the extreme and showed more variability in predictions across repetitions compared to the imputation approach. Limitations and future directions are discussed.

Cancer risk and survival in path_MMR carriers by gene and gender up to 75 years of age: a report from the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database.

BACKGROUND: Most patients with path_MMR gene variants (Lynch syndrome (LS)) now survive both their first and subsequent cancers, resulting in a growing number of older patients with LS for whom limited information exists with respect to cancer risk and survival. OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN: This observational, international, multicentre study aimed to determine prospectively observed incidences of cancers and survival in path_MMR carriers up to 75 years of age. RESULTS: 3119 patients were followed for a total of 24 475 years. Cumulative incidences at 75 years (risks) for colorectal cancer were 46%, 43% and 15% in path_MLH1, path_MSH2 and path_MSH6 carriers; for endometrial cancer 43%, 57% and 46%; for ovarian cancer 10%, 17% and 13%; for upper gastrointestinal (gastric, duodenal, bile duct or pancreatic) cancers 21%, 10% and 7%; for urinary tract cancers 8%, 25% and 11%; for prostate cancer 17%, 32% and 18%; and for brain tumours 1%, 5% and 1%, respectively. Ovarian cancer occurred mainly premenopausally. By contrast, upper gastrointestinal, urinary tract and prostate cancers occurred predominantly at older ages. Overall 5-year survival for prostate cancer was 100%, urinary bladder 93%, ureter 85%, duodenum 67%, stomach 61%, bile duct 29%, brain 22% and pancreas 0%. Path_PMS2 carriers had lower risk for cancer. CONCLUSION: Carriers of different path_MMR variants exhibit distinct patterns of cancer risk and survival as they age. Risk estimates for counselling and planning of surveillance and treatment should be tailored to each patient's age, gender and path_MMR variant. We have updated our open-access website www.lscarisk.org to facilitate this.

Colorectal cancer incidence in path_MLH1 carriers subjected to different follow-up protocols: a Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database report.

BACKGROUND: We have previously reported a high incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in carriers of pathogenic MLH1 variants (path_MLH1) despite follow-up with colonoscopy including polypectomy. METHODS: The cohort included Finnish carriers enrolled in 3-yearly colonoscopy (n = 505; 4625 observation years) and carriers from other countries enrolled in colonoscopy 2-yearly or more frequently (n = 439; 3299 observation years). We examined whether the longer interval between colonoscopies in Finland could explain the high incidence of CRC and whether disease expression correlated with differences in population CRC incidence. RESULTS: Cumulative CRC incidences in carriers of path_MLH1 at 70-years of age were 41% for males and 36% for females in the Finnish series and 58% and 55% in the non-Finnish series, respectively (p > 0.05). Mean time from last colonoscopy to CRC was 32.7 months in the Finnish compared to 31.0 months in the non-Finnish (p > 0.05) and was therefore unaffected by the recommended colonoscopy interval. Differences in population incidence of CRC could not explain the lower point estimates for CRC in the Finnish series. Ten-year overall survival after CRC was similar for the Finnish and non-Finnish series (88% and 91%, respectively; p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The hypothesis that the high incidence of CRC in path_MLH1 carriers was caused by a higher incidence in the Finnish series was not valid. We discuss whether the results were influenced by methodological shortcomings in our study or whether the assumption that a shorter interval between colonoscopies leads to a lower CRC incidence may be wrong. This second possibility is intriguing, because it suggests the dogma that CRC in path_MLH1 carriers develops from polyps that can be detected at colonoscopy and removed to prevent CRC may be erroneous. In view of the excellent 10-year overall survival in the Finnish and non-Finnish series we remain strong advocates of current surveillance practices for those with LS pending studies that will inform new recommendations on the best surveillance interval.

Cancer incidence and survival in Lynch syndrome patients receiving colonoscopic and gynaecological surveillance: first report from the prospective Lynch syndrome database.

OBJECTIVE: Estimates of cancer risk and the effects of surveillance in Lynch syndrome have been subject to bias, partly through reliance on retrospective studies. We sought to establish more robust estimates in patients undergoing prospective cancer surveillance. DESIGN: We undertook a multicentre study of patients carrying Lynch syndrome-associated mutations affecting MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 or PMS2. Standardised information on surveillance, cancers and outcomes were collated in an Oracle relational database and analysed by age, sex and mutated gene. RESULTS: 1942 mutation carriers without previous cancer had follow-up including colonoscopic surveillance for 13 782 observation years. 314 patients developed cancer, mostly colorectal (n=151), endometrial (n=72) and ovarian (n=19). Cancers were detected from 25 years onwards in MLH1 and MSH2 mutation carriers, and from about 40 years in MSH6 and PMS2 carriers. Among first cancer detected in each patient the colorectal cancer cumulative incidences at 70 years by gene were 46%, 35%, 20% and 10% for MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 and PMS2 mutation carriers, respectively. The equivalent cumulative incidences for endometrial cancer were 34%, 51%, 49% and 24%; and for ovarian cancer 11%, 15%, 0% and 0%. Ten-year crude survival was 87% after any cancer, 91% if the first cancer was colorectal, 98% if endometrial and 89% if ovarian. CONCLUSIONS: The four Lynch syndrome-associated genes had different penetrance and expression. Colorectal cancer occurred frequently despite colonoscopic surveillance but resulted in few deaths. Using our data, a website has been established at http://LScarisk.org enabling calculation of cumulative cancer risks as an aid to genetic counselling in Lynch syndrome.

Incidence of and survival after subsequent cancers in carriers of pathogenic MMR variants with previous cancer: a report from the prospective Lynch syndrome database.

OBJECTIVE: Today most patients with Lynch syndrome (LS) survive their first cancer. There is limited information on the incidences and outcome of subsequent cancers. The present study addresses three questions: (i) what is the cumulative incidence of a subsequent cancer; (ii) in which organs do subsequent cancers occur; and (iii) what is the survival following these cancers? DESIGN: Information was collated on prospectively organised surveillance and prospectively observed outcomes in patients with LS who had cancer prior to inclusion and analysed by age, gender and genetic variants. RESULTS: 1273 patients with LS from 10 countries were followed up for 7753 observation years. 318 patients (25.7%) developed 341 first subsequent cancers, including colorectal (n=147, 43%), upper GI, pancreas or bile duct (n=37, 11%) and urinary tract (n=32, 10%). The cumulative incidences for any subsequent cancer from age 40 to age 70 years were 73% for pathogenic MLH1 (path_MLH1), 76% for path_MSH2 carriers and 52% for path_MSH6 carriers, and for colorectal cancer (CRC) the cumulative incidences were 46%, 48% and 23%, respectively. Crude survival after any subsequent cancer was 82% (95% CI 76% to 87%) and 10-year crude survival after CRC was 91% (95% CI 83% to 95%). CONCLUSIONS: Relative incidence of subsequent cancer compared with incidence of first cancer was slightly but insignificantly higher than cancer incidence in patients with LS without previous cancer (range 0.94-1.49). The favourable survival after subsequent cancers validated continued follow-up to prevent death from cancer. The interactive website http://lscarisk.org was expanded to calculate the risks by gender, genetic variant and age for subsequent cancer for any patient with LS with previous cancer.

Tilting the lasso by knowledge-based post-processing.

BACKGROUND: It is useful to incorporate biological knowledge on the role of genetic determinants in predicting an outcome. It is, however, not always feasible to fully elicit this information when the number of determinants is large. We present an approach to overcome this difficulty. First, using half of the available data, a shortlist of potentially interesting determinants are generated. Second, binary indications of biological importance are elicited for this much smaller number of determinants. Third, an analysis is carried out on this shortlist using the second half of the data. RESULTS: We show through simulations that, compared with adaptive lasso, this approach leads to models containing more biologically relevant variables, while the prediction mean squared error (PMSE) is comparable or even reduced. We also apply our approach to bone mineral density data, and again final models contain more biologically relevant variables and have reduced PMSEs. CONCLUSION: Our method leads to comparable or improved predictive performance, and models with greater face validity and interpretability with feasible incorporation of biological knowledge into predictive models.

Ten modifiers of BRCA1 penetrance validated in a Norwegian series.

BACKGROUND: Common genetic variants have been shown to modify BRCA1 penetrance. The aim of this study was to validate these reports in a special cohort of Norwegian BRCA1 mutation carriers that were selected for their extreme age of onset of disease. METHODS: The ten variants rs13387042, rs3803662, rs8170, rs9397435, rs700518, rs10046, rs3834129, rs1045485, rs2363956 and rs16942 were selected to be tested on samples from our biobank. We selected female BRCA1 mutation carriers having had a diagnosis of breast or ovarian cancer below 40 years of age (young cancer group, N = 40), and mutation carriers having had neither breast nor ovarian cancer above 60 years of age (i.e., old no cancer group, N = 38). Relative risks and odd ratios of belonging to the young cancer versus old no cancer groups were calculated as a function of having or not having the SNPs in question. RESULTS: Five of the ten variants were found to be significantly associated with early onset cancer. Some of the variation between our results and those previously reported may be ascribed to stochastic effects in our limited number of patient studies, and/or genetic drift in linkage disequilibrium in the genetically isolated Norwegian population. This is in accordance with the understanding that the SNPs are markers in linkage disequilibrium with their respective disease-causing genetic variants, and that this may vary between different populations. CONCLUSIONS: The results confirmed associations previously reported, with the notion that the degree of association may differ between other populations, which must be considered when discussing the clinical use of the associations described.