Human migration-based graph convolutional network for PM2.5 forecasting in post-COVID-19 pandemic age.

Due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, local authorities always implanted non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as maintaining social distance to reduce human migration. Besides, previous studies have proved that human migration highly influenced air pollution concentration in an area. Therefore, this study aims to explore whether human migration can work as a significant factor in the post-pandemic age to help PM2.5 concentration forecasting. In this work, we first analyze the variations of PM2.5 in 11 cities of Hubei from 2015 to 2020 and further compare PM2.5 trends with the migration trends of Hubei province in 2020. Experimental results indicate that the human migration indirectly affected the urban PM2.5 concentration. Then, we established a graph data structure based on the migration network describing the migration flow size between any two areas in the Hubei province and proposed a migration attentive graph convolutional network (MAGCN) for forecasting PM2.5. Combined with the migration data. The proposed model can attentively aggregate the information of neighbor nodes through migration weights. Experimental results indicate that the proposed MAGCN can forecast PM2.5 concentration accurately.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, hormone receptor status, and breast cancer-specific mortality in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study.

Epidemiologic studies report a protective association between non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use and hormone receptor-positive breast cancer risk, a finding consistent with NSAID-mediated suppression of aromatase-driven estrogen biosynthesis. However, the association between NSAID use and breast cancer-specific mortality is uncertain and it is unknown whether this relationship differs by hormone receptor status. This study comprised 935 invasive breast cancer cases, of which 490 were estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, enrolled between 1996 and 2001 in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study. Self-reported NSAID use in the decade prior to diagnosis was categorized by duration and regularity of use. Differences in tumor size, stage, node, and receptor status by NSAID use were examined using Chi-square tests. Associations between NSAID use and breast cancer-specific mortality were examined using age- and race-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis. Tumor characteristics did not differ by NSAID use. Increased duration and regularity of NSAID use was associated with reduced breast cancer-specific mortality in women with ER-positive tumors (long-term regular use (≥8 days/month for ≥ 3 years) versus no use; hazard ratio (HR) 0.48; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.23-0.98), with a statistically significant trend with increasing duration and regularity (p-trend = 0.036). There was no association for ER-negative cases (HR 1.19; 95 %CI 0.50-2.81; p-trend = 0.891). Long-term, regular NSAID use in the decade prior to breast cancer diagnosis was associated with reduced breast cancer-specific mortality in ER-positive cases. If confirmed, these findings support the hypothesis that potential chemopreventive properties of NSAIDs are mediated, at least in part, through suppression of estrogen biosynthesis.

Analysis, design, and control of a transcutaneous power regulator for artificial hearts.

Based on a generic transcutaneous transformer model, a remote power supply using a resonant topology for use in artificial hearts is analyzed and designed for easy controllability and high efficiency. The primary and secondary windings of the transcutaneous transformer are positioned outside and inside the human body, respectively. In such a transformer, the alignment and gap may change with external positioning. As a result, the coupling coefficient of the transcutaneous transformer is also varying, and so are the two large leakage inductances and the mutual inductance. Resonant-tank circuits with varying resonant-frequency are formed from the transformer inductors and external capacitors. For a given range of coupling coefficients, an operating frequency corresponding to a particular coupling coefficient can be found, for which the voltage transfer function is insensitive to load. Prior works have used frequency modulation to regulate the output voltage under varying load and transformer coupling. The use of frequency modulation may require a wide control frequency range which may extend well above the load insensitive frequency. In this paper, study of the input-to-output voltage transfer function is carried out, and a control method is proposed to lock the switching frequency at just above the load insensitive frequency for optimized efficiency at heavy loads. Specifically, operation at above resonant of the resonant circuits is maintained under varying coupling-coefficient. Using a digital-phase-lock-loop (PLL), zero-voltage switching is achieved in a full-bridge converter which is also programmed to provide output voltage regulation via pulsewidth modulation (PWM). A prototype transcutaneous power regulator is built and found to to perform excellently with high efficiency and tight regulation under variations of the alignment or gap of the transcutaneous transformer, load and input voltage.

Super-spreaders and the rate of transmission of the SARS virus.

We describe a stochastic small-world network model of transmission of the SARS virus. Unlike the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed models of disease transmission, our model exhibits both geographically localised outbreaks and "super-spreaders". Moreover, the combination of localised and long range links allows for more accurate modelling of partial isolation and various public health policies. From this model, we derive an expression for the probability of a widespread outbreak and a condition to ensure that the epidemic is controlled. Moreover, multiple simulations are used to make predictions of the likelihood of various eventual scenarios for fixed initial conditions. The main conclusions of this study are: (i) "super-spreaders" may occur even if the infectiousness of all infected individuals is constant; (ii) consistent with previous reports, extended exposure time beyond 3-5 days (i.e. significant nosocomial transmission) was the key factor in the severity of the SARS outbreak in Hong Kong; and, (iii) the spread of SARS can be effectively controlled by either limiting long range links (imposing a partial quarantine) or enforcing rapid hospitalisation and isolation of symptomatic individuals.

Clustering model for transmission of the SARS virus: application to epidemic control and risk assessment.

We propose a new four state model for disease transmission and illustrate the model with data from the 2003 SARS epidemic in Hong Kong. The critical feature of this model is that the community is modelled as a small-world network of interconnected nodes. Each node is linked to a fixed number of immediate neighbors and a random number of geographically remote nodes. Transmission can only propagate between linked nodes. This model exhibits two features typical of SARS transmission: geographically localized outbreaks and "super-spreaders". Neither of these features are evident in standard susceptible-infected-removed models of disease transmission. Our analysis indicates that "super-spreaders" may occur even if the infectiousness of all infected individuals is constant. Moreover, we find that nosocomial transmission in Hong Kong directly contributed to the severity of the outbreak and that by limiting individual exposure time to 3-5 days the extent of the SARS epidemic would have been minimal.

Minimum description length neural networks for time series prediction.

Artificial neural networks (ANN) are typically composed of a large number of nonlinear functions (neurons) each with several linear and nonlinear parameters that are fitted to data through a computationally intensive training process. Longer training results in a closer fit to the data, but excessive training will lead to overfitting. We propose an alternative scheme that has previously been described for radial basis functions (RBF). We show that fundamental differences between ANN and RBF make application of this scheme to ANN nontrivial. Under this scheme, the training process is replaced by an optimal fitting routine, and overfitting is avoided by controlling the number of neurons in the network. We show that for time series modeling and prediction, this procedure leads to small models (few neurons) that mimic the underlying dynamics of the system well and do not overfit the data. We apply this algorithm to several computational and real systems including chaotic differential equations, the annual sunspot count, and experimental data obtained from a chaotic laser. Our experiments indicate that the structural differences between ANN and RBF make ANN particularly well suited to modeling chaotic time series data.

On-line adaptive chaotic demodulator based on radial-basis-function neural networks.

Chaotic modulation is a useful technique for spread spectrum communication. In this paper, an on-line adaptive chaotic demodulator based on a radial-basis-function (RBF) neural network is proposed and designed. The demodulator is implemented by an on-line adaptive learning algorithm, which takes advantage of the good approximation capability of the RBF network and the tracking ability of the extended Kalman filter. It is demonstrated that, provided the modulating parameter varies slowly, spread spectrum signals contaminated by additive white Gaussian noise in a channel can be tracked in a time window, and the modulating parameter, which carries useful messages, can be estimated using the least-square fit. The Henon map is chosen as the chaos generator. Four test message signals, namely, square-wave, sine-wave, speech and image signals, are used to evaluate the performance. The results verify the ability of the demodulator in tracking the dynamics of the chaotic carrier as well as retrieving the message signal from a noisy channel.

Polymorphisms in the DNA repair gene XRCC1 and breast cancer.

X-ray repair cross complementing group 1 (XRCC1) encodes a protein involved in base excision repair. We examined the association of polymorphisms in XRCC1 (codon 194 Arg-->Trp and codon 399 Arg-->Gln) and breast cancer in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study, a population-based case-control study in North Carolina. No association was observed between XRCC1 codon 194 genotype and breast cancer, and odds ratios (ORs) were not modified by smoking or radiation exposure. A positive association for XRCC1 codon 399 Arg/Gln or Gln/Gln genotypes compared with Arg/Arg was found among African Americans (253 cases, 266 controls; OR = 1.7, 95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.4) but not whites (386 cases, 381 controls; OR =1.0, 95% confidence interval, 0.8-1.4). Among African-American women, ORs for the duration of smoking were elevated among women with XRCC1 codon 399 Arg/Arg genotype (trend test; P < 0.001) but not Arg/Gln or Gln/Gln (P = 0.23). There was no difference in OR for smoking according to XRCC1 codon 399 genotype in white women. ORs for occupational exposure to ionizing radiation were stronger for African-American and white women with codon 399 Arg/Arg genotype. High-dose radiation to the chest was more strongly associated with breast cancer among white women with XRCC1 codon 399 Arg/Arg genotype. Our results suggest that XRRC1 codon 399 genotype may influence breast cancer risk, perhaps by modifying the effects of environmental exposures. However, interpretation of our results is limited by incomplete knowledge regarding the biological function of XRCC1 alleles.

Plasma 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene (DDE) levels and immune response.

For determination of whether plasma 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene (DDE) pesticide levels (< or =1-32 ppb) are associated with immune suppression or DNA damage in lymphocytes, 302 individuals residing in Moore County, North Carolina, in 1994-1996 provided a blood specimen, underwent a skin test, and answered a questionnaire concerning factors affecting plasma organochlorine pesticide levels and the immune system. The blood specimens were analyzed for levels of plasma DDE (a metabolite of 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane), numbers and types of blood cells, immunoglobulin levels, mitogen-induced lymphoproliferative activity, and lymphocyte micronuclei. When DDE levels were categorized as 1 or less, more than 1 to 2, more than 2 to 4.3, more than 4.3 to 7.6, and more than 7.6 ppb, individuals with higher plasma DDE levels had lowered mitogen-induced lymphoproliferative activity (concanavalin A, range: 74,218 dropping to 55,880 counts per minute, p = 0.03) and modestly increased total lymphocytes (range: 2.0-2.3 x 10(3)/microl, p = 0.05) and immunoglobulin A levels (range: 210-252 mg/dl, p = 0.04). There were no consistent differences in response to the skin tests by plasma DDE levels. Plasma DDE levels were not associated with a higher frequency of micronuclei. The authors conclude that relatively low levels of plasma DDE are associated with statistically significant changes in immune markers, although the magnitude of the effects are of uncertain clinical importance.

Dichlorodiphenyldichloroethene, polychlorinated biphenyls, and breast cancer among African-American and white women in North Carolina.

We examined plasma dichlorodiphenyldichloroethene (DDE) and total polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) levels in relation to breast cancer in a population-based, case-control study of African-American women (292 cases and 270 controls) and white women (456 cases and 389 controls) in North Carolina. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for breast cancer comparing the highest to lowest third of DDE were 1.41 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.87-2.29] in African-American women and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.67-1.43) in white women. ORs comparing the highest to lowest third of total PCBs were 1.74 (95% CI, 1.00-3.01) in African-American women and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.68-1.56) in white women. Among African-Americans, the OR for total PCBs was highest for obese women (body mass index 234.2; OR, 4.92; 95% CI, 1.63-14.83). In contrast, the OR for DDE was highest for the leanest African-American women (body mass index, <25; OR, 3.84; 95% CI, 0.98-15.08). ORs for DDE were not elevated among women who lived or worked on farms or elevated among farming women who reported exposure to pesticides. Our results suggest absence of a strong effect for DDE or total PCBs in breast cancer but lend support for associations among subgroups of women. In our study, factors such as income, parity, breastfeeding, race/ethnicity, and body mass index influenced the relationship of organochlorines and breast cancer. Differing distributions of such factors may explain some of the inconsistencies across previous studies.

Glutathione S-transferases M1, T1, and P1 and breast cancer.

We examined associations for glutathione S-transferases M1 (GSTM1), T1 (GSTT1), and P1 (GSTP1) genotypes and breast cancer in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study, a population-based, case-control study in North Carolina. Odds ratios were close to the null value for each GST locus among African-American women (278 cases and 271 controls) and white women (410 cases and 392 controls), as well as pre- and postmenopausal women. For women with a history of breast cancer in one or more first-degree relatives, odds ratios were 2.1 (95% confidence interval, 1.0-4.2) for GSTM1 null and 1.9 (0.8-4.6) for GSTT1 null genotypes. Among women with a family history, age at diagnosis was significantly earlier for those with the GSTM1 null genotype. We did not observe strong evidence for modification of odds ratios for smoking according to GST genotypes. There was no evidence for combined effects of GSTM1, GSTT1, and GSTP1 genotypes, and there were no combined effects for GST genotypes and the catechol O-methyltransferase genotype. We conclude that GSTM1, GSTT1, and GSTP1 genotypes do not play a strong role in susceptibility to breast cancer. However, the role of GST genotypes in age at onset and risk of breast cancer among women with a family history merits further investigation.

Effects on the immune system associated with living near a pesticide dump site.

In this paper, we report results of the second phase of a larger study designed to evaluate the effects on the immune system of living near a Superfund site containing organochlorine pesticides, volatile organic compounds, and metals. Phase II was conducted to determine whether living near the site, consisting of six locations in Aberdeen, North Carolina, is associated with higher plasma organochlorine levels, immune suppression, or DNA damage. Each of 302 residents of Aberdeen and neighboring communities provided a blood specimen, underwent a skin test, and answered a questionnaire. Blood specimens were analyzed for organochlorine pesticides, immune markers, and micronuclei. Of 20 organochlorines tested, only DDE was detected in the blood of participants (except for one individual). Age-adjusted mean plasma DDE levels were 4.05 ppb for Aberdeen residents and 2.95 ppb (p = 0.01) for residents of neighboring communities. Residents of 40-59 years of age who lived within a mile of any site, but particularly the Farm Chemicals site, had higher plasma DDE levels than residents who lived farther away. Residents who lived near the Farm Chemicals site before versus after 1985 also had higher plasma DDE levels. Overall, there were few differences in immune markers between residents of Aberdeen and the neighboring communities. However, residents who lived closer to the dump sites had statistically significantly lower mitogen-induced lymphoproliferative activity than residents who lived farther away (p < 0.05). Residential location was not consistently associated with frequency of micronuclei or skin test responses. Although some statistically significant differences in immune markers were noted in association with residential location, the magnitude of effects are of uncertain clinical importance.

Participation rates in a case-control study: the impact of age, race, and race of interviewer.

PURPOSE: Despite concerns about declining participation rates in epidemiologic studies in recent years, relatively few papers have discussed obstacles to recruiting study participants or strategies for optimizing response rates. This report describes factors associated with nonparticipation in a population-based, case-control study of breast cancer and discusses ways to overcome barriers to participation. METHODS: Contact and cooperation rates were calculated for participants in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study (CBCS), stratified by case status, age, race, and race of interviewer. Demographic and breast cancer risk factor characteristics of partial and full responders also were compared. RESULTS: Contact rates and cooperation rates varied by case/control status and demographic characteristics. Contact rates were lower among controls, younger women, and black women. Cooperation rates were lower among controls, older women, and black cases. Cooperation rates were higher among both black and nonblack women when participants and interviewers were concordant on race. CONCLUSIONS: Obstacles to recruitment seem to differ among race and age subgroups, suggesting that recruitment strategies may need to be tailored to potential participants based upon demographic characteristics. Strategies have been implemented to improve response rates in this and other epidemiologic studies; however, additional research and innovation in this area are needed.

P57 (KIP2) polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

A previous report in this journal has suggested that germline deletions in the proline-alanine-rich (PAPA-repeat) region of P57 (KIP2) are associated with increased risk of a variety of cancers, including breast cancer. We have analyzed the association of P57 PAPA-repeat deletion polymorphisms and breast cancer risk as part of a population-based case-control study of breast cancer. We have not observed an association between the presence of one or two copies of deletion polymorphisms in P57 and breast cancer risk (adjusted odds ratio: 1.1, 95% confidence interval: 0.6-2.0). Further investigation is necessary to determine the functional significance of P57 deletion polymorphisms and their potential relationship with disease.

Catechol-O-methyltransferase and breast cancer risk.

Recent studies suggest that a polymorphism in catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) is associated with increased risk of breast cancer. Methylation by COMT is the principal pathway for inactivation of catechol estrogens, which are hypothesized to participate in estrogen-induced carcinogenesis. We examined the association of COMT genotype and breast cancer risk in a population-based, case-control study of invasive breast cancer in North Carolina. The study population consisted of 654 cases and 642 controls, with approximately equal numbers of African-American and white women and women under the age of 50 and aged 50 or over. Contrary to previous reports, we did not observe an association between one or more copies of the low activity COMT allele (COMT-L) and breast cancer risk. Multivariate relative risks (RRs) were 0.8 (95% confidence interval: 0.6-1.1) for COMT-HL and 0.8 (0.6-1.1) for COMT-LL, compared with the COMT-HH genotype. RRs for COMT did not differ among African-American and white women and we did not observe strong modification of RR estimates by menopausal status, body mass index, physical activity or other covariates. Our results suggest that COMT genotype is not related to breast cancer risk.

Cigarette smoking, N-acetyltransferases 1 and 2, and breast cancer risk.

To examine the effects of smoking and N-acetylation genetics on breast cancer risk, we analyzed data from an ongoing, population-based, case-control study of invasive breast cancer in North Carolina. The study population consisted of 498 cases and 473 controls, with approximately equal numbers of African-American and white women, and women under the age of 50 and age 50 years or older. Among premenopausal women, there was no association between current smoking [odds ratio (OR), 0.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.5-1.5] or past smoking (OR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.6-1.6) and breast cancer risk. Among postmenopausal women, there was also no association with current smoking (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.7-2.0); however, a small increase in risk was observed for past smoking (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.0-2.4). For postmenopausal women who smoked in the past, ORs and 95% CIs were 3.4 (1.4-8.1) for smoking within the past 3 years, 3.0 (1.3-6.7) for smoking 4-9 years ago, and 0.6 (0.3-1.4) for smoking 10-19 years ago. Neither N-acetyltransferase 1 (NAT1) nor N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) genotype alone was associated with increased breast cancer risk. There was little evidence for modification of smoking effects according to genotype, except among postmenopausal women. Among postmenopausal women, ORs for smoking within the past 3 years were greater for women with the NAT1*10 genotype (OR, 9.0; 95% CI, 1.9-41.8) than NAT1-non*10 (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 0.9-7.2) and greater for NAT2-rapid genotype (OR, 7.4; 95% CI, 1.6-32.6) than NAT2-slow (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 0.4-8.0). Future studies of NAT genotypes and breast cancer should investigate the effects of environmental tobacco smoke, diet, and other exposures.

Electrical occupations and neurodegenerative disease: analysis of U.S. mortality data.

Investigators have hypothesized that occupations involving electric and magnetic field exposure are associated with a variety of health problems, including neurological disease. The authors conducted a case-control study, and they used U.S. death certificates with occupational coding to compare male cases of Alzheimer's disease (n = 256), Parkinson's disease (n = 168), and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (n = 114) with controls matched for age and calendar time. The authors selected controls in a 3:1 ratio to cases from persons who died of causes other than leukemia, brain cancer, and breast cancer. Overall associations with electrical occupations were modest (i.e., adjusted odds ratios of 1.2, 1.1, and 1.3 for Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, respectively). Individual electrical occupations were associated more strongly with disease than overall electrical occupations, particularly amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, for which relative risks ranged from 2 to 5 across several job categories. The largest associations with all three diseases occurred for power plant operators.

Male and female occupation in relation to miscarriage and preterm delivery in central North Carolina.

PURPOSE: This study was undertaken to evaluate the role of parental occupation in miscarriage and preterm delivery. Previous studies raise the possibility that both male and female exposures could affect pregnancy. METHODS: Data from a population-based study of miscarriage and preterm delivery in central North Carolina were used to examine potential associations with male and female occupation. Medically treated miscarriage cases (n = 418), preterm delivery cases identified through hospital record review (n = 582), and term, normal birth weight controls (n = 787) were sought for telephone interview. The interview included information on jobs the woman held before and during the pregnancy, reports of her partner's job around the time of pregnancy, and information on potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Female employment overall, or in specific jobs, around the time of conception or early pregnancy was not associated with the risk of miscarriage, whereas working during pregnancy, especially in the seventh month, was inversely associated with risk of preterm delivery. Male employment in several industrial occupations was weakly associated with miscarriage (adjusted odds ratios (OR) of 1.6 to 1.8), and somewhat more strongly associated with preterm delivery, particularly for chemists and sheet metal workers (adjusted OR over 3). Restriction to married men strengthened the associations. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are limited by nonresponse, imprecision, incomplete identification of miscarriages, and lack of detailed occupational exposure information. Nonetheless, we found greater support for further examination of male compared to female jobs in relation to pregnancy outcome.

Male and female employment in the textile industry in relation to miscarriage and preterm delivery.

To address potential reproductive hazards in textile manufacturing, we conducted a community-based case-control study in central North Carolina. Miscarriage cases were identified from medical records (280 interviewed cases): preterm delivery cases and term, normal birth weight controls (454 and 605, respectively) were identified from area hospitals. Exposures were based on job title, an interview concerning textile-related exposures, expert imputation of exposure based on job titles and interviews, and self-reported exposures by women. Relative to women and men working in nonhazardous occupations, workers in the textile industry were not at increased risk of miscarriage or preterm delivery, with the possible exception of preterm delivery among women and men employed in sectors other than knitting and yarn mills and men employed in yarn mills. Inferred exposures to specific agents were also not associated with adverse pregnancy outcome. Subject to uncertainty in exposure assessment and nonresponse, these data indicate an absence of adverse effects of the textile workplace environment on these pregnancy outcomes.