West Nile Virus and Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus High Probability Habitat Identification for the Selection of Sentinel Chicken Surveillance Sites in Florida.

To mitigate the effects of West Nile virus (WNV) and eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), the state of Florida conducts a serosurveillance program that uses sentinel chickens operated by mosquito control programs at numerous locations throughout the state. Coop locations were initially established to detect St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV), and coop placement was determined based on the location of human SLEV infections that occurred between 1959 and 1977. Since the introduction of WNV into Florida in 2001, WNV has surpassed SLEV as the primary arbovirus in Florida. Identifying high probability locations for WNV and EEEV transmission and relocating coops to areas of higher arbovirus activity would improve the sensitivity of the sentinel chicken surveillance program. Using 2 existing models, this study conducted an overlay analysis to identify areas with high probability habitats for both WNV and EEEV activity. This analysis identified approximately 7,800 km2 (about 4.5% of the state) as high probability habitat for supporting both WNV and EEEV transmission. Mosquito control programs can use the map resulting from this analysis to improve their sentinel chicken surveillance programs, increase the probability of virus detection, reduce operational costs, and allow for a faster, targeted response to virus detection.

Ensemble ecological niche modeling of West Nile virus probability in Florida.

Ecological Niche Modeling is a process by which spatiotemporal, climatic, and environmental data are analyzed to predict the distribution of an organism. Using this process, an ensemble ecological niche model for West Nile virus habitat prediction in the state of Florida was developed. This model was created through the weighted averaging of three separate machine learning models-boosted regression tree, random forest, and maximum entropy-developed for this study using sentinel chicken surveillance and remote sensing data. Variable importance differed among the models. The highest variable permutation value included mean dewpoint temperature for the boosted regression tree model, mean temperature for the random forest model, and wetlands focal statistics for the maximum entropy mode. Model validation resulted in area under the receiver curve predictive values ranging from good [0.8728 (95% CI 0.8422-0.8986)] for the maximum entropy model to excellent [0.9996 (95% CI 0.9988-1.0000)] for random forest model, with the ensemble model predictive value also in the excellent range [0.9939 (95% CI 0.9800-0.9979]. This model should allow mosquito control districts to optimize West Nile virus surveillance, improving detection and allowing for a faster, targeted response to reduce West Nile virus transmission potential.

Field Analysis of Biological Factors Associated With Sites at High and Low to Moderate Risk for Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Winter Activity in Florida.

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is the most pathogenic arbovirus endemic to the United States. Studies have demonstrated Florida's role as a regional reservoir for the virus and its ability to support year-round transmission. Previous research has developed risk index models for mapping locations most at risk for EEEV transmission. We compared vector abundance, vector feeding behavior, potential host species, and fauna presence at high versus low-moderate risk sites during the winter and spring. Predicted high-risk sites had a significantly greater abundance of mosquitoes overall, including Culiseta melanura (Coquillett) (Diptera: Culicidae), the primary enzootic vector of EEEV. Twenty host species were identified from Cs. melanura bloodmeals, with the majority taken from avian species. Culiseta melanura largely fed upon the Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis (Passeriformes: Cardinalidae)), which accounted for 20-24.4% of the bloodmeals obtained from this species in years 1 and 2, respectively. One EEEV-positive mosquito pool (Cs. melanura) and nine EEEV seropositive sentinel chickens were confirmed during winter-spring collections from high-risk sites; no seropositive chickens nor mosquito pools were found at the low-moderate risk sites. These results suggest that high-risk sites for EEEV activity are characterized by habitats that support populations of Cs. melanura and which may also provide ample opportunities to feed upon Northern Cardinals. The overall low level of mosquito populations during the winter also suggests that control of Cs. melanura populations in winter at high-risk sites may prove effective in reducing EEEV transmission during the peak summer season.

Habitat associations of eastern equine encephalitis transmission in Walton County Florida.

Eastern Equine Encephalitis virus (EEEV; family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus) a highly pathogenic mosquito-borne virus is endemic to eastern North America. The ecology of EEEV in Florida differs from that in other parts of the United States; EEEV in the northeastern United States is historically associated with freshwater wetlands. No formal test of habitat associations of EEEV in Florida has been reported. Geographical Information Sciences (GIS) was used in conjunction with sentinel chicken EEEV seroconversion rate data as a means to examine landscape features associated with EEEV transmission in Walton County, FL. Sentinel sites were categorized as enzootic, periodically enzootic, and negative based on the number of chicken seroconversions to EEEV from 2005 to 2009. EEEV transmission was then categorized by land cover usage using Arc GIS 9.3. The land classification data were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis test for each land use class to determine which habitats may be associated with virus transmission as measured by sentinel chicken seroconversion rates. The habitat class found to be most significantly associated with EEEV transmission was tree plantations. The ecological factor most commonly associated with reduced levels of EEEV transmission was vegetated nonforest wetlands. Culiseta melanura (Coquillett), the species generally considered to be the major enzootic EEEV vector, was relatively evenly distributed across all habitat classes, while Aedes vexans (Meigen) and Anopheles crucians Weidemann were most commonly associated with tree plantation habitats.

Estimation of dispersal distances of Culex erraticus in a focus of eastern equine encephalitis virus in the southeastern United States.

Patterns of mosquito dispersal are important for predicting the risk of transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens to vertebrate hosts. We studied dispersal behavior of Culex erraticus (Dyar & Knab), a potentially significant vector of eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) that is often associated with foci of this pathogen in the southeastern United States. Using data on the relative density of resting adult female Cx. erraticus around known emergence sites in Tuskegee National Forest, Alabama, we developed a model for the exponential decay of the relative density of adult mosquitoes with distance from larval habitats through parameterization of dispersal kernels. The mean and 99th percentile of dispersal distance for Cx. erraticus estimated from this model were 0.97 and 3.21 km per gonotrophic cycle, respectively. Parameterized dispersal kernels and estimates of the upper percentiles of dispersal distance of this species can potentially be used to predict EEEV infection risk in areas surrounding the Tuskegee National Forest focus in the event of an EEEV outbreak. The model that we develop for estimating the dispersal distance of Cx. erraticus from collections of adult mosquitoes could be applicable to other mosquito species that emerge from discrete larval sites.

A dynamic transmission model of eastern equine encephalitis virus.

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is one of several arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) endemic to the United States. Interactions between arthropod (mosquito) vectors and avian amplification host populations play a significant role in the dynamics of arboviral transmission. Recent data have suggested the hypothesis that an increased rate of successful feeding on young-of-the-year (YOY) birds might play a role in the dynamics of EEEV transmission. To test this hypothesis, we developed a model to explore the effect of the interactions of the vectors and avian host populations on EEEV transmission. Sensitivity analyses conducted using this model revealed eleven parameters that were capable of disproportionately affecting the predicted level of EEEV infection in the vertebrate reservoir and vector populations. Of these, four parameters were related to the interaction of the vector with young-of-the-year birds. Furthermore, adult birds could not substitute for young-of-the-year in initiating and maintaining a predicted enzootic outbreak of EEEV. Taken together, the model predicted that young-of-the-year birds play a key role in establishing and maintaining enzootic outbreaks of EEEV.

PEMPHIGUS REVISITED: CHANGES IN GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION BUT CONSTANCY IN VARIABILITY AND COVARIATION.

Samples of the gall-forming aphids Pemphigus populicaulis and P. populitransversus (both elongate and globular morphs) were re-collected at sites in eastern North America after 13 to 16 years. Twenty-three morphometric characters of the galls, stem mothers, and alate fundatrigeniae were analyzed by univariate and multivariate methods. Varying proportions of the variance of each character are attributable to the four levels of variation-locality, year, year by locality interaction, and among galls (within one year and locality). The year by locality interaction level generally has the greatest variation and is highly significant. Year and locality effects tend to be lower and not significant. The variance components do not exhibit trends with time. Geographic variation patterns of single variables or factor scores in the original and revisited populations show significant spatial structure overall but lack clear-cut spatial patterns, especially clines. Observable patterns of variation match results of the spatial analyses: most characters lack clear trends; patterns in the revisited data do not resemble patterns for the same variables in the original data. Variability profiles for characters change little over the time span and are comparable among and within localities. Covariation among characters over localities is largely maintained during the time interval despite the changes in patterns. Fluctuating interclonal competition among aphids on secondary hosts is believed to cause the marked heterogeneity in space and time among the aphids in the galls.

Sexual reproduction and variation in floral morphology in an ephemeral vernal lily, Eyythronium americanum.

In a riparian population of Erythronium americanum (Liliaceae) in central New Jersey, experimentally self-pollinated plant produced markedly fewer fruit and fewer seeds per fruit than hand-outcrossed and open pollinated plants, even though differences were not evident between pollen tubes that penetrated stigmas from self or foreign pollen. This weak self-compatibility and a positive relation between the percentage of seeds set by outcrossed plants and the distance between pollen donor and recipient plants indicate that this population could be susceptible to inbreeding depression.Limited resources for seed development apparently constrained maximal seed production, based on low seed set (40.6%) by hand-pollinated plants and positive correlations for these plants between plant size and the number and size of seeds set. In contrast, naturally-pollinated plants set a smaller proportion of their ovules, suggesting that limited pollinator service reduced the quantity of seeds produced in this population. Free-foraging bees usually removed more than half of the available pollen in a single visit, so that individual plants probably have few opportunities to disseminate their pollen.Even though sexually reproductive ramets produce only a single flower per year, less than a third of variation in floral morphology is associated with variation in plant size. Within the flower, the sizes of some closely associated structures, such as the style and ovary, and the anthers and filaments, vary essentially independently of one another. Production of nectar and pollen, the ultimate attractors of pollinating insects, was positively correlated with flower size.