Nasal symptoms, epithelial injury and neurogenic inflammation in elite swimmers.

BACKGROUND: A high burden of lower airway symptoms is found in elite swimmers. To what extent elite swimmers suffer from upper airway symptoms and how these associate with nasal inflammation is less clear. We here aimed to evaluate upper airway symptoms and nasal inflammation in elite athletes. METHODOLOGY: Elite swimmers, indoor athletes and age-matched controls were recruited. Upper airway symptoms were assessed by sino-nasal outcome test (SNOT)-22 questionnaire. Visual Analogue score (VAS) for nasal symptoms as well as neurogenic and inflammatory mediators in nasal fluid were assessed at baseline, immediately and 24-hours after sport-specific training. The effect of hypochlorite on nasal epithelial cells was evaluated in vitro. RESULTS: Baseline SNOT-22 and VAS for nasal itch and impaired smell were significantly higher in swimmers compared to controls. Nasal substance P and uric acid levels were increased in elite swimmers 24-hours after swimming compared to baseline. In elite swimmers, uric acid levels 24-hours post-exercise correlated with baseline SNOT-22. As increased symptoms and inflammation were found in swimmers but not in indoor athletes, we hypothesized that hypochlorite exposure might be the underlying mechanism. In vitro, the highest dose of hypochlorite decreased nasal epithelial cell integrity and induced release of uric acid. CONCLUSION: Upper airway symptoms are frequently reported in elite swimmers. Intensive swimming resulted in a delayed increase of epithelial injury and neurogenic inflammation.

External validation of models and simple scoring systems to predict miscarriage in intrauterine pregnancies of uncertain viability.

STUDY QUESTION: Does a logistic regression model and scoring system to predict viability of an intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability (PUV) perform as well in an independent patient group as the original patient group? SUMMARY ANSWER: The model and scoring system showed good performance on external validation confirming their value for the prediction of miscarriage/viability in PUV patients up to 11-14 weeks of gestation. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Several individual ultrasound and demographic factors have been described as predictors for miscarriage. A logistic regression model and simple scoring system using basic clinical and ultrasound features, such as maternal age, bleeding score, mean gestational sac diameter (MSD) and presence or absence of yolk sac, have been developed to allow patient-specific prediction of viability of PUV beyond the first trimester. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Prospective observational external validation cohort study in two inner city early pregnancy assessment units over a period of 18 months. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: All consecutive women with a PUV were recruited. Ultrasound (mean sac diameter and presence of yolk sac) and demographic variables (maternal age, bleeding score and gestational age) were noted. The outcome measure was first trimester (11-14 week) viability. Women with unknown first trimester outcome were excluded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots were constructed. Test performance was compared with the original development data set. A new model and scoring system, which did not include gestational age, was built and evaluated. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Of the 575 women who were recruited, first trimester outcome was known for 89.2% (n = 513). The model could only be validated in 400 patients, due to missing values in model variables and outcome. The model predicted viability with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.845 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.806-0.884] compared with 0.774 (95% CI, 0.701-0.848) in the original study. The AUC for the scoring system was 0.832 (95% CI, 0.792-0.872) compared with 0.771 (95% CI, 0.698-0.844) from the original study data set. The new model and the scoring system, excluding gestational age, could be evaluated on 503 patients and resulted in an AUC of 0.801 (95% CI, 0.765-0.841) for the model and 0.773 (95% CI, 0.733-0.812) for the scoring system. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Approximately 22% of patients could not be validated due to missing variables and for 11% of patients the first trimester outcome was unknown. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Both the model and the scoring system showed excellent performance on external validation confirming their generalizability and utility in prediction of viability beyond the first trimester in clinical practice. An advantage of the mathematical models original Mo and new Mn and scoring systems original SSo and new SSn is that they can provide women with an individualized probability of the viability of their pregnancy using only demographic information, symptoms and TVS findings. Furthermore, the risk of miscarriage can be given immediately following examination. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): T.B. is supported by the Imperial Healthcare NHS Trust NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. This research is supported by Research Council KUL GOA MaNet, iMinds 2012, Belgian Federal Science Policy Office IUAP P719. VVB is a postdoctoral fellow of the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO). There are no conflicts of interest.

A model and scoring system to predict outcome of intrauterine pregnancies of uncertain viability.

OBJECTIVES: To define the incidence and outcome of intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability (PUV) and to develop and assess the performance of a model and a scoring system to predict ongoing viability. METHODS: Of 1881 consecutive women undergoing transvaginal ultrasonography, a cohort of 493 women with an empty gestational sac < 20 mm in mean diameter, gestational sac < 25 mm in mean diameter and containing yolk sac only or an embryonic pole < 6 mm in maximum length and without visible heart activity were followed until the end of the first trimester. Women with multiple pregnancies or who underwent termination of pregnancy were excluded. Outcome measures were pregnancy viability at initial 7-14-day follow-up and first-trimester viability at 11-14 weeks. The data were split randomly into two sets (two-thirds and one-third, respectively) in order to first develop and then test a mathematical model and a 'simple' model in the prediction of viability at each outcome point, based on maternal demographics, ultrasound features and symptoms. The performance of each system was assessed by receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis and calibration plots on a test dataset. RESULTS: The incidence of PUV in this population was 29.2% (549/1881). Of the 493 pregnancies with initial (7-14 days) follow-up available, 307 (62.3%) were viable at this time and of the 444 pregnancies with follow-up at the end of the first trimester, 225 (50.7%) were still viable. Initial (7-14-day) viability was predicted by the model with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.837 (95% CI, 0.791-0.884) in the training dataset and 0.821 (95% CI, 0.756-0.885) in the test dataset. First-trimester (11-14-week) viability was predicted by the model with an AUC of 0.788 (95% CI, 0.734-0.842) in the training dataset and 0.774 (95% CI, 0.701-0.848) in the test dataset. The scoring system performed slightly worse than did the model, but had the advantage of being easily applicable. CONCLUSIONS: When early pregnancy viability cannot be established immediately with ultrasound, use of either a logistic regression model or a scoring system allows an individualized prediction of first-trimester outcome.

Improved performance on high-dimensional survival data by application of Survival-SVM.

MOTIVATION: New application areas of survival analysis as for example based on micro-array expression data call for novel tools able to handle high-dimensional data. While classical (semi-) parametric techniques as based on likelihood or partial likelihood functions are omnipresent in clinical studies, they are often inadequate for modelling in case when there are less observations than features in the data. Support vector machines (svms) and extensions are in general found particularly useful for such cases, both conceptually (non-parametric approach), computationally (boiling down to a convex program which can be solved efficiently), theoretically (for its intrinsic relation with learning theory) as well as empirically. This article discusses such an extension of svms which is tuned towards survival data. A particularly useful feature is that this method can incorporate such additional structure as additive models, positivity constraints of the parameters or regression constraints. RESULTS: Besides discussion of the proposed methods, an empirical case study is conducted on both clinical as well as micro-array gene expression data in the context of cancer studies. Results are expressed based on the logrank statistic, concordance index and the hazard ratio. The reported performances indicate that the present method yields better models for high-dimensional data, while it gives results which are comparable to what classical techniques based on a proportional hazard model give for clinical data.

Prospective external validation of the 'ovarian crescent sign' as a single ultrasound parameter to distinguish between benign and malignant adnexal pathology.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the sensitivity and specificity of the 'ovarian crescent sign' (OCS)-a rim of normal ovarian tissue seen adjacent to an ipsilateral adnexal mass-as a sonographic feature to discriminate between benign and malignant adnexal masses. METHODS: The patients included were a subgroup of patients participating in the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) Phase 2 study, which is an international multicenter study. The subgroup comprised 1938 patients, with an adnexal mass, recruited from 19 ultrasound centers in different countries. All patients were scanned using the same standardized ultrasound protocol. Information on more than 40 demographic and ultrasound variables were collected, but the evaluation of the OCS was optional. Only patients from centers that had evaluated the OCS in > or = 90% of their cases were included. The gold standard was the histological diagnosis of the adnexal mass. The ability of the OCS to discriminate between borderline or invasively malignant vs. benign adnexal masses, as well as between invasively malignant vs. other (benign and borderline) tumors, was determined and compared with the performance of subjective evaluation of ultrasound findings by the ultrasound examiner. RESULTS: The OCS was evaluated in 1377 adnexal masses from 12 centers, 938 (68%) masses being benign, 86 (6%) borderline, 305 (22%) primary invasive and 48 (3%) metastases. The OCS was present in 398 (42%) of 938 benign masses, in 14 (16%) of 86 borderline tumors, in 18 (6%) of 305 primary invasive tumors (one malignant struma ovarii, one uterine clear cell adenocarcinoma and 16 epithelial carcinomas, i.e. four Stage I and 12 Stage II-IV) and in two (4%) of 48 ovarian metastases. Hence, the sensitivity and specificity for absent OCS to identify a malignancy was 92% and 42%, respectively, and the positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR-, respectively) were 1.60 and 0.18. Subjective impression performed significantly better than the OCS. Sensitivity and specificity were 90% and 92%, respectively, LR+ was 11.0 and LR- was 0.10. For discrimination between invasive vs. benign or borderline tumors, the sensitivity for absent OCS was 94%, the specificity was 40%, the LR+ was 1.58 and the LR- was 0.14. CONCLUSION: This study confirms previous reports that the presence of the OCS decreases the likelihood of invasive malignancy in adnexal masses. However it is a poor discriminator between benign and malignant adnexal masses.

Acoustic streaming cannot discriminate reliably between endometriomas and other types of adnexal lesion: a multicenter study of 633 adnexal masses.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the ability of acoustic streaming to discriminate between endometriomas and other adnexal masses. METHODS: We used data from 1938 patients with an adnexal mass included in Phase 2 of the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) study. All patients had been examined by transvaginal gray-scale and Doppler ultrasound following a standardized research protocol. Assessment of acoustic streaming was voluntary and was carried out only in lesions containing echogenic cyst fluid. Acoustic streaming was defined as movement of particles inside the cyst fluid during gray-scale and/or color Doppler examination provided that the probe had been held still for two seconds to ensure that the movement of the particles was not caused by movement of the probe or the patient. Only centers where acoustic streaming had been evaluated in > 90% of cases were included. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+, LR-), and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) of acoustic streaming with regard to endometrioma were calculated. RESULTS: 460 (24%) masses were excluded because they were examined in centers where

Short-Term Prognostic Index for Breast Cancer: NPI or Lpi.

Axillary lymph node involvement is an important prognostic factor for breast cancer survival but is confounded by the number of nodes examined. We compare the performance of the log odds prognostic index (Lpi), using a ratio of the positive versus negative lymph nodes, with the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) for short-term breast cancer specific disease free survival. A total of 1818 operable breast cancer patients treated in the University Hospital of Leuven between 2000 and 2005 were included. The performance of the NPI and Lpi were compared on two levels: calibration and discrimination. The latter was evaluated using the concordance index (cindex), the number of patients in the extreme groups, and difference in event rates between these. The NPI had a significant higher cindex, but a significant lower percentage of patients in the extreme risk groups. After updating both indices, no significant differences between NPI and Lpi were noted.

Additive survival least-squares support vector machines.

This work studies a new survival modeling technique based on least-squares support vector machines. We propose the use of a least-squares support vector machine combining ranking and regression. The advantage of this kernel-based model is threefold: (i) the problem formulation is convex and can be solved conveniently by a linear system; (ii) non-linearity is introduced by using kernels, componentwise kernels in particular are useful to obtain interpretable results; and (iii) introduction of ranking constraints makes it possible to handle censored data. In an experimental setup, the model is used as a preprocessing step for the standard Cox proportional hazard regression by estimating the functional forms of the covariates. The proposed model was compared with different survival models from the literature on the clinical German Breast Cancer Study Group data and on the high-dimensional Norway/Stanford Breast Cancer Data set.

Intravenous contrast ultrasound examination using contrast-tuned imaging (CnTI) and the contrast medium SonoVue for discrimination between benign and malignant adnexal masses with solid components.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether intravenous contrast ultrasound examination is superior to gray-scale or power Doppler ultrasound for discrimination between benign and malignant adnexal masses with complex ultrasound morphology. METHODS: In an international multicenter study, 134 patients with an ovarian mass with solid components or a multilocular cyst with more than 10 cyst locules, underwent a standardized transvaginal ultrasound examination followed by contrast examination using the contrast-tuned imaging technique and intravenous injection of the contrast medium SonoVue(R). Time intensity curves were constructed, and peak intensity, area under the intensity curve, time to peak, sharpness and half wash-out time were calculated. The sensitivity and specificity with regard to malignancy were calculated and receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves were drawn for gray-scale, power Doppler and contrast variables and for pattern recognition (subjective assignment of a certainly benign, probably benign, uncertain or malignant diagnosis, using gray-scale and power Doppler ultrasound findings). The gold standard was the histological diagnosis of the surgically removed tumors. RESULTS: After exclusions (surgical removal of the mass > 3 months after the ultrasound examination, technical problems), 72 adnexal masses with solid components were used in our statistical analyses. The values for peak contrast signal intensity and area under the contrast signal intensity curve in malignant tumors were significantly higher than those in borderline tumors and benign tumors, while those for the benign and borderline tumors were similar. The area under the ROC curve of the best contrast variable with regard to diagnosing borderline or invasive malignancy (0.84) was larger than that of the best gray-scale (0.75) and power Doppler ultrasound variable (0.79) but smaller than that of pattern recognition (0.93). CONCLUSION: Findings on ultrasound contrast examination differed between benign and malignant tumors but there was a substantial overlap in contrast findings between benign and borderline tumors. It appears that ultrasound contrast examination is not superior to conventional ultrasound techniques, which also have difficulty in distinguishing between benign and borderline tumors, but can easily differentiate invasive malignancies from other tumors.

Triple negative breast cancer: a study from the point of view of basal CK5/6 and HER-1.

AIM: Basal-like breast tumours, as defined by microarrays, carry a poor prognosis and therapeutic options are limited to date. Often, these tumours are defined as oestrogen receptor (ER) negative/progesterone receptor (PR) negative/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER-2) negative (triple negative) by immunohistochemistry (IHC), but a more complete definition should include expression of basal cytokeratins (CK5/6, CK14 or CK17) and/or human epidermal growth factor receptor 1 (HER-1). The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent CK5/6 and HER-1 characterise the group of triple negative breast cancers. METHODS: Expression of CK5/6 and HER-1 was studied by IHC in 25 triple negative breast carcinomas and 32 grade-matched, non-triple-negative controls. All 57 cases were further subjected to fluorescence in situ hybridisation to investigate HER-1 gene copy number. RESULTS: CK5/6 and HER-1 expression was most frequent in triple negative tumours: 22 out of 25 cases (88.0%) expressed at least one of these markers (60.0% CK5/6 positive and 52.0% HER-1 positive). In the control group, CK5/6 and HER-1 expression was found in ER-negative but not in ER-positive tumours (ER negative/PR negative/HER-2 positive tumours: 20.0% CK5/6 positive and 46.7% HER-1 positive). HER-1 gene amplification was found in five cases only: four triple negative (16.0%) and one ER-negative control (ER negative/PR negative/HER-2 positive, 6.7%). Of interest, all five HER-1 amplified cases showed a remarkably homogeneous HER-1 expression pattern. CONCLUSION: Expression of CK5/6 and HER-1 is frequent in ER-negative breast cancers, in triple negative and in non-triple negative tumours. In a minority of cases, HER-1 overexpression may be caused by HER-1 gene amplification. Further studies are needed to investigate whether such cases might benefit from anti-HER-1 therapy.

The optimal timing of an ultrasound scan to assess the location and viability of an early pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to determine the optimal gestational age at which to establish the location and viability of an early pregnancy using transvaginal ultrasonography (TVS). METHODS: This was a prospective study of 1442 women undergoing initial TVS at no more than 84 days gestation. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between gestational age and the ability to confirm viability or non-viability, in women with and without symptoms of pain and bleeding. RESULTS: The commonest TVS finding prior to 35 days was a pregnancy of unknown location, from 35 to 41 days an early intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability and from 42 days a viable intrauterine pregnancy. Miscarriage could only be diagnosed on initial TVS after 35 days. There was no difference between the ability to make a diagnosis for women with certain or uncertain dates (P = 0.719). The chance of confirming viability increased rapidly per day of gestation until 49 days and thereafter plateaued. Of the 29 ectopic pregnancies diagnosed, 72% presented prior to 49 days gestation and all of these women presented with pain, bleeding or a previous ectopic pregnancy history. CONCLUSIONS: The ability to confirm viability or non-viability is significantly related to gestational age. In asymptomatic women with no previous ectopic pregnancy TVS should be delayed until 49 days. Our data suggest that this would reduce the number of inconclusive scans, without an associated increase in morbidity from missed ectopic pregnancies.

Age interacts with the expression of steroid and HER-2 receptors in operable invasive breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The negative association between the oestrogen receptor (ER) and the human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER-2) in breast cancer travels in both directions. ER+ tumours are less likely HER-2+ and HER-2+ tumours are less likely ER+. METHODS: We studied the age-related immunohistochemical (IHC) expression of ER, progesterone receptor (PR) and HER-2 in 2,227 tumours using age as a continuous variable. Steroid receptors were considered positive for any nuclear staining of invasive cancer cells and for HER-2, either for strong expression by IHC (score 3+) or gene amplification by fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH). Based on nonparametric regression, the age-related association between steroid receptors and HER-2 was presented as likelihood curves. RESULTS: The association between ER or PR and HER-2 is age-related. The age-related expression of ER and PR is HER-2 dependent. In HER-2(-) cases, the odds ratio (OR) for being ER+ was 2.594 (95% CI = 1.874-3.591) up to age 50 and age-independent thereafter; for PR-expression the OR was 2.687 (95% CI = 1.780-4.057) up to age 45 and 0.847 (95% CI = 0.761-0.942) thereafter. In HER-2+ cases, the OR was 0.806 (95% CI = 0.656-0.991) to be ER+ and 0.722 (95% CI = 0.589-0.886) to be PR+. The age-related OR for breast cancers to be HER-2+ is steroid receptor dependent. Taking together, ER+PR+HER-2+ breast cancers appear on average 5.4 years earlier than breast cancers of any other ER/PR/HER-2 phenotype (95% CI = 3.3-7.5; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: There is a qualitative interaction between age and expression of steroid and HER-2 receptors. Our findings suggest a strong age-related selective growth advantage for breast tumour cells belonging to the ER+PR+HER-2+ subgroup.