Neoadjuvant Nivolumab Plus Chemotherapy Followed By Response-Adaptive Therapy for HPV+ Oropharyngeal Cancer: OPTIMA II Phase 2 Open-Label Nonrandomized Controlled Trial.

Importance: Immune checkpoint inhibitors improve survival in recurrent and/or metastatic head and neck cancer, yet their role in curative human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer (HPV+ OPC) remains undefined. Neoadjuvant nivolumab and chemotherapy followed by response-adaptive treatment in HPV+ OPC may increase efficacy while reducing toxicity. Objective: To determine the deep response rate and tolerability of the addition of neoadjuvant nivolumab to chemotherapy followed by response-adapted locoregional therapy (LRT) in patients with HPV+ OPC. Design, Setting, and Participants: This phase 2 nonrandomized controlled trial conducted at a single academic center enrolled 77 patients with locoregionally advanced HPV+ OPC from 2017 to 2020. Data analyses were performed from February 10, 2021, to January 9, 2023. Interventions: Addition of nivolumab to neoadjuvant nab-paclitaxel and carboplatin (studied in the first OPTIMA trial) followed by response-adapted LRT in patients with HPV+ OPC stages III to IV. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was deep response rate to neoadjuvant nivolumab plus chemotherapy, defined as the proportion of tumors with 50% or greater shrinkage per the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors 1.1. Secondary outcomes were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Swallowing function, quality of life, and tissue- and blood-based biomarkers, including programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression and circulating tumor HPV-DNA (ctHPV-DNA), were also evaluated. Results: The 73 eligible patients (median [range] age, 61 [37-82] years; 6 [8.2%] female; 67 [91.8%] male) started neoadjuvant nivolumab and chemotherapy. Deep responses were observed in 51 patients (70.8%; 95% CI, 0.59-0.81). Subsequent risk- and response-adaptive therapy was assigned as follows: group A, single-modality radiotherapy alone or transoral robotic surgery (28 patients); group B, intermediate-dose chemoradiotherapy of 45 to 50 Gray (34 patients); and group C, regular-dose chemoradiotherapy of 70 to 75 Gray (10 patients). Two-year PFS and OS were 90.0% (95% CI, 0.80-0.95) and 91.4% (95% CI, 0.82-0.96), respectively. By response-adapted group, 2-year PFS and OS for group A were 96.4% and 96.4%, and group B, 88.0% and 91.0%, respectively. Lower enteral feeding rates and changes in weight, as well as improved swallowing, were observed among patients who received response-adapted LRT. Pathologic complete response rate among patients who underwent transoral robotic surgery was 67.0%. PD-L1 expression was nonsignificantly higher for deeper responses and improved PFS, and ctHPV-DNA clearance was significantly associated with improved PFS. Conclusions and Relevance: This phase 2 nonrandomized controlled trial found that neoadjuvant nivolumab and chemotherapy followed by response-adapted LRT is feasible and has favorable tolerability, excellent OS, and improved functional outcomes in HPV+ OPC, including among patients with high-risk disease. Moreover, addition of nivolumab may benefit high PD-L1 expressors, and sensitive dynamic biomarkers (eg, ctHPV-DNA) are useful for patient selection. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03107182.

Radiotherapy Enhances Metastasis Through Immune Suppression by Inducing PD-L1 and MDSC in Distal Sites.

PURPOSE: Radiotherapy (RT) is a widely employed anticancer treatment. Emerging evidence suggests that RT can elicit both tumor-inhibiting and tumor-promoting immune effects. The purpose of this study is to investigate immune suppressive factors of radiotherapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We used a heterologous two-tumor model in which adaptive concomitant immunity was eliminated. RESULTS: Through analysis of PD-L1 expression and myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSC) frequencies using patient peripheral blood mononuclear cells and murine two-tumor and metastasis models, we report that local irradiation can induce a systemic increase in MDSC, as well as PD-L1 expression on dendritic cells and myeloid cells, and thereby increase the potential for metastatic dissemination in distal, nonirradiated tissue. In a mouse model using two distinct tumors, we found that PD-L1 induction by ionizing radiation was dependent on elevated chemokine CXCL10 signaling. Inhibiting PD-L1 or MDSC can potentially abrogate RT-induced metastasis and improve clinical outcomes for patients receiving RT. CONCLUSIONS: Blockade of PD-L1/CXCL10 axis or MDSC infiltration during irradiation can enhance abscopal tumor control and reduce metastasis.

Bintrafusp Alfa With CCRT Followed by Bintrafusp Alfa Versus Placebo With CCRT Followed by Durvalumab in Patients With Unresectable Stage III NSCLC: A Phase 2 Randomized Study.

INTRODUCTION: Preclinical evaluation of bintrafusp alfa (BA) combined with radiotherapy revealed greater antitumor effects than BA or radiotherapy alone. In a phase 1 study, BA exhibited encouraging clinical activity in patients with stage IIIB or IV NSCLC who had received previous treatment. METHODS: This multicenter, double-blind, controlled phase 2 study (NCT03840902) evaluated the safety and efficacy of BA with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (cCRT) followed by BA (BA group) versus placebo with cCRT followed by durvalumab (durvalumab group) in patients with unresectable stage III NSCLC. The primary end point was progression-free survival according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors version 1.1 as assessed by the investigator. On the basis of the recommendation of an independent data monitoring committee, the study was discontinued before the maturity of overall survival data (secondary end point). RESULTS: A total of 153 patients were randomized to either BA (n = 75) or durvalumab groups (n = 78). The median progression-free survival was 12.8 months versus 14.6 months (stratified hazard ratio = 1.48 [95% confidence interval: 0.69-3.17]), in the BA and durvalumab groups, respectively. Trends for overall response rate (29.3% versus 32.1%) and disease control rate (66.7% versus 70.5%) were similar between the two groups. Any-grade treatment-emergent adverse events occurred in 94.6% versus 96.1% of patients in the BA versus durvalumab groups, respectively. Bleeding events in the BA group were mostly grade 1 (21.6%) or 2 (9.5%). CONCLUSIONS: BA with cCRT followed by BA exhibited no efficacy benefit over placebo with cCRT followed by durvalumab in patients with stage III unresectable NSCLC.

Bintrafusp Alfa Versus Pembrolizumab in Patients With Treatment-Naive, Programmed Death-Ligand 1-High Advanced NSCLC: A Randomized, Open-Label, Phase 3 Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Bintrafusp alfa, a first-in-class bifunctional fusion protein composed of the extracellular domain of TGF-ßRII (a TGF-ß "trap") fused to a human immunoglobulin G1 monoclonal antibody blocking programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1), has exhibited clinical activity in a phase 1 expansion cohort of patients with PD-L1-high advanced NSCLC. METHODS: This adaptive phase 3 trial (NCT03631706) compared the efficacy and safety of bintrafusp alfa versus pembrolizumab as first-line treatment in patients with PD-L1-high advanced NSCLC. Primary end points were progression-free survival according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors version 1.1 per independent review committee and overall survival. RESULTS: Patients (N = 304) were randomized one-to-one to receive either bintrafusp alfa or pembrolizumab (n = 152 each). The median follow-up was 14.3 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.1-16.0 mo) for bintrafusp alfa and 14.5 months (95% CI: 13.1-15.9 mo) for pembrolizumab. Progression-free survival by independent review committee was not significantly different between bintrafusp alfa and pembrolizumab arms (median = 7.0 mo [95% CI: 4.2 mo-not reached (NR)] versus 11.1 mo [95% CI: 8.1 mo-NR]; hazard ratio = 1.232 [95% CI: 0.885-1.714]). The median overall survival was 21.1 months (95% CI: 21.1 mo-NR) for bintrafusp alfa and 22.1 months (95% CI: 20.4 mo-NR) for pembrolizumab (hazard ratio = 1.201 [95% CI: 0.796-1.811]). Treatment-related adverse events were higher with bintrafusp alfa versus pembrolizumab; grade 3-4 treatment-related adverse events occurred in 42.4% versus 13.2% of patients, respectively. The study was discontinued at an interim analysis as it was unlikely to meet the primary end point. CONCLUSIONS: First-line treatment with bintrafusp alfa did not exhibit superior efficacy compared with pembrolizumab in patients with PD-L1-high, advanced NSCLC.

New reporting items and recommendations for randomized trials impacted by COVID-19 and force majeure events: a targeted approach.

Background: Appropriate analyses and reporting are essential to the reproducibility and interpretation of clinical trials. However, the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic and other force majeure events, like the war in Ukraine, have impacted the conduct of clinical trials. Methods: The number of clinical trials potentially impacted were estimated from clinicaltrials.gov. To identify reporting items considered vital for assessing the impact of COVID-19, we reviewed 35 randomized phase III trials from three top oncology journals published between July and December 2020. For validation, we reviewed 29 phase III trials published between January and December 2021. Results: Our results show that the number of clinical trials being potentially impacted in cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes is at least 1,484, 535, and 145, respectively. The magnitude of disruption is most significant in oncology trials. Based on the review of 35 trials, a modified checklist with ten new and four modified items covering pandemic's impact on trial conduct, protocol changes, delays, data capture, analysis and interpretation was developed to ensure comprehensive and transparent reporting. Our validation shows that six out of seven applicable reporting items were reported in less than 21% of the articles. Conclusions: Our recommendations were proposed to improve the reporting of randomized clinical trials impacted by COVID-19 and force majeure events that are broadly applicable to different areas of medical research.

Plain language summary of the CheckMate 816 study results: nivolumab plus chemotherapy given before surgery for non-small-cell lung cancer.

WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?: In this article, we summarize results from the ongoing phase 3 CheckMate 816 clinical study that were published in The New England Journal of Medicine in 2022. The goal of CheckMate 816 was to find out if nivolumab, an immunotherapy that activates a person's immune system (the body's natural defense system) to fight cancer, plus chemotherapy works better than chemotherapy alone when given before surgery in people with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) that can be removed surgically (resectable NSCLC). WHAT HAPPENED IN THE STUDY?: Adults who had not previously taken medications to treat NSCLC and whose cancer could be removed with surgery were included in CheckMate 816. During this study, a computer randomly assigned the treatment each person would receive before surgery for NSCLC. In total, 179 people were randomly assigned to receive nivolumab plus chemotherapy, and 179 people were randomly assigned to receive chemotherapy alone. The researchers assessed whether people who received nivolumab plus chemotherapy lived longer without the cancer geting worse or coming back and whether there were any cancer cells left in the tumor and lymph nodes removed by surgery. The researchers also assessed how adding nivolumab to chemotherapy affected the timing and outcomes of surgery and whether the combination of these drugs was safe. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS?: Researchers found that people who took nivolumab plus chemotherapy lived longer without the cancer getting worse or coming back compared with those who took chemotherapy alone. More people in the nivolumab plus chemotherapy group had no cancer cells left in the tumor and lymph nodes removed by surgery. Most people went on to have surgery in both treatment groups; the people who took nivolumab plus chemotherapy instead of chemotherapy alone had less extensive surgeries and were more likely to have good outcomes after less extensive surgeries. Adding nivolumab to chemotherapy did not lead to an increase in the rate of side effects compared with chemotherapy alone, and side effects were generally mild and manageable. WHAT DO THE RESULTS OF THE STUDY MEAN?: Results from CheckMate 816 support the benefit of using nivolumab plus chemotherapy before surgery for people with resectable NSCLC. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02998528 (ClinicalTrials.gov).

STK11 Inactivation Predicts Rapid Recurrence in Inoperable Early-Stage Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

PURPOSE: Molecular factors predicting relapse in early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC) are poorly understood, especially in inoperable patients receiving radiotherapy (RT). In this study, we compared the genomic profiles of inoperable and operable ES-NSCLC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 53 patients with nonsquamous ES-NSCLC (stage I-II) treated at a single institution (University of Chicago) with surgery (ie, operable; n = 30) or RT (ie, inoperable; n = 23) who underwent tumor genomic profiling. A second cohort of ES-NSCLC treated with RT (Stanford, n = 39) was included to power clinical analyses. Prognostic gene alterations were identified and correlated with clinical variables. The primary clinical end point was the correlation of prognostic genes with the cumulative incidence of relapse, disease-free survival, and overall survival (OS) in a pooled RT cohort from the two institutions (N = 62). RESULTS: Although the surgery cohort exhibited lower rates of relapse, the RT cohort was highly enriched for somatic STK11 mutations (43% v 6.7%). Receiving supplemental oxygen (odds ratio [OR] = 5.5), 20+ pack-years of tobacco smoking (OR = 6.1), and Black race (OR = 4.3) were associated with increased frequency of STK11 mutations. In the pooled RT cohort (N = 62), STK11 mutation was strongly associated with inferior oncologic outcomes: 2-year incidence of relapse was 62% versus 20% and 2-year OS was 52% versus 85%, remaining independently prognostic on multivariable analyses (relapse: subdistribution hazard ratio = 4.0, P = .0041; disease-free survival: hazard ratio, 6.8, P = .0002; OS: hazard ratio, 6.0, P = .022). STK11 mutations were predominantly associated with distant failure, rather than local. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of ES-NSCLC, STK11 inactivation was associated with poor oncologic outcomes after RT and demonstrated a novel association with clinical hypoxia, which may underlie its correlation with medical inoperability. Further validation in larger cohorts and investigation of effective adjuvant systemic therapies may be warranted.

Epstein-Barr Virus DNA Screening in Asymptomatic People without Known Nasopharyngeal Cancer.

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is an uncommon head and neck malignancy in most parts of the world but is endemic in Southeast Asia and North Africa.1 Over 130,000 new cases were recorded globally and 80,000 patients succumbed to nasopharyngeal carcinoma in 2020.2 Owing to relatively mild symptoms during early stages, most patients are diagnosed with clinically advanced disease, and the 5-year overall survival for these patients remains approximately 50%.3 Hence, early detection when the disease is most treatable may improve clinical outcomes.

Uncertainty-informed deep learning models enable high-confidence predictions for digital histopathology.

A model's ability to express its own predictive uncertainty is an essential attribute for maintaining clinical user confidence as computational biomarkers are deployed into real-world medical settings. In the domain of cancer digital histopathology, we describe a clinically-oriented approach to uncertainty quantification for whole-slide images, estimating uncertainty using dropout and calculating thresholds on training data to establish cutoffs for low- and high-confidence predictions. We train models to identify lung adenocarcinoma vs. squamous cell carcinoma and show that high-confidence predictions outperform predictions without uncertainty, in both cross-validation and testing on two large external datasets spanning multiple institutions. Our testing strategy closely approximates real-world application, with predictions generated on unsupervised, unannotated slides using predetermined thresholds. Furthermore, we show that uncertainty thresholding remains reliable in the setting of domain shift, with accurate high-confidence predictions of adenocarcinoma vs. squamous cell carcinoma for out-of-distribution, non-lung cancer cohorts.

Highly aneuploid non-small cell lung cancer shows enhanced responsiveness to concurrent radiation and immune checkpoint blockade.

Over 500 clinical trials are investigating combination radiotherapy and immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) as cancer treatments; however, the majority of trials have found no positive interaction. Here we perform a comprehensive molecular analysis of a randomized phase I clinical trial of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with concurrent or sequential ablative radiotherapy and ICB. We show that concurrent treatment is superior to sequential treatment in augmenting local and distant tumor responses and in improving overall survival in a subset of patients with immunologically cold, highly aneuploid tumors, but not in those with less aneuploid tumors. In addition, radiotherapy alone decreases intratumoral cytotoxic T cell and adaptive immune signatures, whereas radiotherapy and ICB upregulates key immune pathways. Our findings challenge the prevailing paradigm that local ablative radiotherapy beneficially stimulates the immune response. We propose the use of tumor aneuploidy as a biomarker and therapeutic target in personalizing treatment approaches for patients with NSCLC treated with radiotherapy and ICB.

A Randomized Multi-institutional Phase II Trial of Everolimus as Adjuvant Therapy in Patients with Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Cancer of the Head and Neck.

PURPOSE: Investigate whether adjuvant everolimus, an mTOR inhibitor, improves progression-free survival (PFS) in advanced-stage head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) and provide outcomes related to correlative biological factors associated with disease control. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a prospective, randomized, double-blind phase II trial of patients with advanced-stage HNSCC from 13 institutions who were confirmed disease-free post-definitive therapy and enrolled between December 2010 and March 2015. Patients received adjuvant everolimus or placebo daily (10 mg, oral) for a maximum of 1 year. p16 IHC as a surrogate marker for human papillomavirus infection and whole-exome sequencing were performed. Cox proportional hazard models estimated hazard rates. Log-rank tests evaluated differences in survival. The primary endpoint was PFS. Secondary endpoints and objectives included overall survival (OS) and toxicity assessment. RESULTS: 52 patients [median (range) age, 58 (37-76) years; 43 men (83%), 9 women (17%)] were randomized to placebo (n = 24) or everolimus (n = 28). PFS favored everolimus, but was not significant [log-rank P = 0.093; HR = 0.44; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.17-1.17]. There was no difference in OS (P = 0.29; HR = 0.57; 95% CI, 0.20-16.2). Everolimus resulted in significant improvement in PFS for p16-negative patients (n = 31; P = 0.031; HR = 0.26; 95% CI, 0.07-0.97), although subgroup analysis showed no difference for p16-positive patients (n = 21; P = 0.93). Further, PFS was significantly higher in TP53-mutated (TP53mut) patients treated with everolimus compared with placebo (log-rank P = 0.027; HR = 0.24; 95% CI, 0.06-0.95). No treatment difference was seen in patients with TP53 wild-type tumors (P = 0.79). CONCLUSIONS: p16-negative and TP53mut patients may benefit from adjuvant treatment with everolimus.

Characterizing Lymph Node Burden With Elective Unilateral Neck Irradiation in Human Papillomavirus-Positive Tonsil Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Defining the Upper Limits.

Objectives Elective unilateral neck irradiation in well-lateralized tonsil carcinoma for N2b disease is controversial. Metrics regarding nodal burden beyond the N-stage to define the upper limit of this de-escalation approach remain limited. We investigated the role of nodal number, level, and volume on outcomes in patients with well-lateralized tonsil carcinoma treated with this approach. Methods A total of 37 patients received radiotherapy (RT) with unilateral neck coverage for well-lateralized tonsil cancer. Of patients, 95% had p16+ disease, and 81% were staged with positron emission tomography/computed tomography. The majority of patients received definitive chemoradiation on prospective de-escalation trials. Ten patients had ipsilateral neck dissections and were treated adjuvantly. The median RT dose to the ipsilateral neck (generally II-IV) was 45 Gy. The effects of nodal number, max dimension, volume, and level on recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were to be analyzed via Cox proportional hazards (Cox-PH). Results After a median follow-up of 3.9 years, two-year RFS and two-year OS were 100% and 97%, respectively. Given the 0% contralateral recurrence rate, Cox-PH analysis was not performed. Of patients, 70% were American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th edition N2b, with a median number of nodes, number of nodal levels, max dimension, and volume of two, one, 3.4 cm, and 15.6 cc, respectively. There were several patients with low-lying nodes; aggregate nodal volume measured was up to 85.4 cc. Conclusion Unilateral neck irradiation in well-lateralized tonsil carcinoma resulted in no contralateral recurrence. Nodal volume, level, and number do not seem to have a significant impact on outcomes.

Phase I study of nab-paclitaxel-based induction followed by nab-paclitaxel-based concurrent chemotherapy and re-irradiation in previously treated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is associated with poor overall survival (OS). Prior studies suggested incorporation of nab-paclitaxel (A) may improve outcomes in recurrent HNSCC. METHODS: This Phase I study evaluated induction with carboplatin and A followed by concomitant FHX (infusional 5-fluorouracil, hydroxyurea and twice-daily radiation therapy administered every other week) plus A with cohort dose escalation ranging from 10-100 mg/m2 in recurrent HNSCC. The primary endpoint was maximally tolerated dose (MTD) and dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) of A when given in combination with FHX (AFHX). RESULTS: Forty-eight eligible pts started induction; 28 pts started AFHX and were evaluable for toxicity. Two DLTs occurred (both Grade 4 mucositis) at a dose level 20 mg/m2. No further DLTs were observed with subsequent dose escalation. The MTD and recommended Phase II dose (RP2D) of A was 100 mg/m2. CONCLUSIONS: In this Phase I study, the RP2D of A with FHX is 100 mg/m2 (AFHX). The role of re-irradiation with immunotherapy warrants further investigation. CLINICAL TRIAL INFORMATION: This clinical trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01847326.

Long-term Outcomes with Nivolumab as First-line Treatment in Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer: Subgroup Analysis of CheckMate 141.

In the randomized, phase 3 CheckMate 141 trial, nivolumab significantly improved overall survival (OS) versus investigator's choice (IC) of chemotherapy at primary analysis among 361 patients with recurrent or metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (R/M SCCHN) post-platinum therapy. Nivolumab versus IC as first-line treatment also improved OS among patients with R/M SCCHN who progressed on platinum therapy for locally advanced disease in the adjuvant or primary setting at 1-year follow-up. In the present long-term follow-up analysis of patients receiving first-line treatment, OS benefit with nivolumab (n = 50) versus IC (n = 26) was maintained (median: 7.7 months versus 3.3 months; hazard ratio: 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.94) at 2 years. No new safety signals were identified. In summary, this long-term 2-year analysis of CheckMate 141 supports the use of nivolumab as a first-line treatment for patients with platinum-refractory R/M SCCHN.

Neoadjuvant Nivolumab plus Chemotherapy in Resectable Lung Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy confers a modest benefit over surgery alone for resectable non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In early-phase trials, nivolumab-based neoadjuvant regimens have shown promising clinical activity; however, data from phase 3 trials are needed to confirm these findings. METHODS: In this open-label, phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned patients with stage IB to IIIA resectable NSCLC to receive nivolumab plus platinum-based chemotherapy or platinum-based chemotherapy alone, followed by resection. The primary end points were event-free survival and pathological complete response (0% viable tumor in resected lung and lymph nodes), both evaluated by blinded independent review. Overall survival was a key secondary end point. Safety was assessed in all treated patients. RESULTS: The median event-free survival was 31.6 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 30.2 to not reached) with nivolumab plus chemotherapy and 20.8 months (95% CI, 14.0 to 26.7) with chemotherapy alone (hazard ratio for disease progression, disease recurrence, or death, 0.63; 97.38% CI, 0.43 to 0.91; P = 0.005). The percentage of patients with a pathological complete response was 24.0% (95% CI, 18.0 to 31.0) and 2.2% (95% CI, 0.6 to 5.6), respectively (odds ratio, 13.94; 99% CI, 3.49 to 55.75; P<0.001). Results for event-free survival and pathological complete response across most subgroups favored nivolumab plus chemotherapy over chemotherapy alone. At the first prespecified interim analysis, the hazard ratio for death was 0.57 (99.67% CI, 0.30 to 1.07) and did not meet the criterion for significance. Of the patients who underwent randomization, 83.2% of those in the nivolumab-plus-chemotherapy group and 75.4% of those in the chemotherapy-alone group underwent surgery. Grade 3 or 4 treatment-related adverse events occurred in 33.5% of the patients in the nivolumab-plus-chemotherapy group and in 36.9% of those in the chemotherapy-alone group. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with resectable NSCLC, neoadjuvant nivolumab plus chemotherapy resulted in significantly longer event-free survival and a higher percentage of patients with a pathological complete response than chemotherapy alone. The addition of nivolumab to neoadjuvant chemotherapy did not increase the incidence of adverse events or impede the feasibility of surgery. (Funded by Bristol Myers Squibb; CheckMate 816 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02998528.).

Development and Validation of a Decision Analytical Model for Posttreatment Surveillance for Patients With Oropharyngeal Carcinoma.

Importance: Clinical practice regarding posttreatment radiologic surveillance for patients with oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPC) is neither adapted to individual patient risk nor fully evidence based. Objectives: To construct a microsimulation model for posttreatment OPC progression and use it to optimize surveillance strategies while accounting for both tumor stage and human papillomavirus (HPV) status. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this decision analytical modeling study, a Markov model of 3-year posttreatment patient trajectories was created. The training data source was the American College of Surgeon's National Cancer Database from 2010 to 2015. The external validation data set was the 2016 International Collaboration on Oropharyngeal Cancer Network for Staging (ICON-S) study. Training data comprised 2159 patients with OPC treated with primary radiotherapy who had known HPV status and disease staging information. Patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer, 7th edition stage III to IVB disease and those with clinical metastases during the time of primary treatment were included. Data were analyzed from August 1 to October 31, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes included disease stage and HPV status, specific disease transition probabilities, and latency of surveillance regimens, defined as time between recurrence incidence and disease discovery. Results: Training data consisted of 2159 total patients (1708 men [79.1%]; median age, 59.6 years [range, 40-90 years]; 401 with stage III disease, 1415 with stage IVA disease, and 343 with stage IVB disease). Cohorts predominantly had HPV-negative disease (1606 [74.4%]). With model-optimized regimens, recurrent disease was discovered a mean of 0.6 months (95% CI, 0.5-0.8 months) earlier than with a standard surveillance regimen based on current clinical guidelines. Recurrent disease was discovered using the optimized regimens without significant reduction in sensitivity. Compared with strategies based on reimbursement guidelines, the model-optimized regimens found disease a mean of 1.8 months (95% CI, 1.3-2.3 months) earlier. Conclusions and Relevance: Optimized, risk-stratified surveillance regimens consistently outperformed nonoptimized strategies. These gains were obtained without requiring any additional imaging studies. This approach to risk-stratified surveillance optimization is generalizable to a broad range of tumor types and risk factors.