Development of a Machine Learning Modelling Tool for Predicting HIV Incidence Using Public Health Data from a County in the Southern United States.

BACKGROUND: Recent advancements in Machine Learning (ML) have significantly improved the accuracy of models predicting HIV incidence. These models typically utilize electronic medical records and patient registries. This study aims to broaden the application of these tools by utilizing de-identified public health datasets for notifiable sexually transmitted infections (STIs) from a southern U.S. County known for high HIV incidence rates. The goal is to assess the feasibility and accuracy of ML in predicting HIV incidence, which could potentially inform and enhance public health interventions. METHODS: We analyzed two de-identified public health datasets, spanning January 2010 to December 2021, focusing on notifiable STIs. Our process involved data processing and feature extraction, including sociodemographic factors, STI cases, and social vulnerability index (SVI) metrics. Various ML algorithms were trained and evaluated for predicting HIV incidence, using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. RESULTS: The study included 85,224 individuals, with 2,027 (2.37%) newly diagnosed with HIV during the study period. The ML models demonstrated high performance in predicting HIV incidence among males and females. Influential predictive features for males included age at STI diagnosis, previous STI information, provider type, and SVI. For females, they included age, ethnicity, previous STIs information, overall SVI, and race. CONCLUSIONS: The high accuracy of our ML models in predicting HIV incidence highlights the potential of using public health datasets for public health interventions such as tailored HIV testing and prevention. While these findings are promising, further research is needed to translate these models into practical public health applications.

Low CD4 Count or Being Out of Care Increases the Risk for Mpox Hospitalization Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Mpox.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated immunosuppression may increase the risk of hospitalization with mpox. Among persons diagnosed with mpox in the state of Georgia, we characterized the association between hospitalization with mpox and HIV status. People with HIV and a CD4 count <350 cells/mm3 or who were not engaged in HIV care had an increased risk of hospitalization.

Trends in Hepatitis C Virus and HIV Care Outcomes Among People With HIV in Georgia, United States, 2014-2019.

OBJECTIVE: If untreated, hepatitis C virus (HCV) leads to poor health outcomes, including liver disease and death, particularly among people with HIV (PWH). We describe trends over time in incidence rates of HCV diagnoses among PWH in the state of Georgia. METHODS: We constructed a retrospective cohort of PWH in Georgia by using matched HIV and HCV case surveillance data from people diagnosed with HCV infection from January 1, 2014, through December 31, 2019. We calculated annual incidence rates per 1000 person-years and estimated trends over time in HCV diagnoses among the cohort of PWH by demographic characteristics and HIV care outcomes using Poisson regression analysis, with α = .05 considered significant. RESULTS: From 2014 through 2019, among 49 530 PWH in Georgia, 1945 (3.9%) were diagnosed with HCV infection. During this period, overall incidence per 1000 person-years of newly diagnosed HCV infection among PWH decreased from 8.7 to 4.5 (P for trend < .001). However, from 2014 through 2019, the annual incidence rates of PWH who were newly diagnosed with HCV infection increased from 4.6 to 7.1 (P for trend = .003) among people born from 1980 through 1989 and from 3.3 to 12.8 (P for trend < .001) among people born in 1990 or later. CONCLUSION: Strategies are needed to increase prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of HIV/HCV coinfection, particularly among PWH born in 1980 and later. Routine linkage of state surveillance data can inform prioritization of PWH at highest risk of HCV infection.

Barriers and Facilitators to HIV Service Access among Hispanic/Latino Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men in Metropolitan Atlanta-a Qualitative Analysis.

Hispanic/Latino persons are disproportionately impacted by HIV in the US, and HIV diagnoses among Hispanic/Latino men in Georgia have increased over the past decade, particularly in metropolitan Atlanta. In 2022, the Georgia Department of Public Health detected five clusters of rapid HIV transmission centered among Hispanic/Latino gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (HLMSM) in metropolitan Atlanta. We conducted in-depth interviews with 65 service providers and 29 HLMSM to identify barriers and facilitators to HIV service access for HLMSM. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed, and translated, if needed. Initial data analyses were conducted rapidly in the field to inform public health actions. We then conducted additional analyses including line-by-line coding of the interview transcripts using a thematic analytic approach. We identified four main themes. First, inequity in language access was a predominant barrier. Second, multiple social and structural barriers existed. Third, HLMSM encountered intersectional stigma. Finally, the HLMSM community is characterized by its diversity, and there is not a one-size-fits-all approach to providing appropriate care to this population. The collection of qualitative data during an HIV cluster investigation allowed us to quickly identity barriers experienced by HLMSM when accessing HIV and other medical care, to optimize public health response and action. Well-designed program evaluation and implementation research may help elucidate specific strategies and tools to reduce health disparities, ensure equitable service access for HLMSM, and reduce HIV transmission in this population.

HIV and HCV testing at clinical encounters among people who inject drugs, 2013-2018-Opportunities for increased testing and prevention.

People who inject drugs (PWID) with unsafe injection practices have substantial risk for HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. We describe frequency of, and factors associated with, HIV and HCV testing during clinical encounters with PWID. Inpatient and Emergency Department clinical encounters at an Atlanta hospital were abstracted from medical records spanning January 2013-December 2018. We estimated frequency of HIV and HCV testing during injection drug use (IDU)-related encounters among PWID without previous diagnoses. We assessed associations between patient factors and testing using generalized estimating equations models. HIV testing occurred in 39.3% and HCV testing occurred in 17.1% of eligible IDU-related encounters. Testing was more likely in IDU-related encounters during 2017-2018 than in encounters during 2013-2014; (HIV, AOR = 2.14, 95% CI, 1.32-3.49, p < .01). Testing was less likely among Black/African American patients compared to White patients (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: HIV, AOR = 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33-0.72, p < .01); HCV, AOR = 0.41, 95% CI, 0.24-0.70, p < .01). This difference may be attributable to recent testing among Black patients in non-IDU related encounters. HIV and HCV testing improved over time; however, missed opportunities for testing still existed. Strategies should aim to improve equitable HIV and HCV testing among PWID.

Ending the HIV epidemic PrEP equity recommendations from a rapid ethnographic assessment of multilevel PrEP use determinants among young Black gay and bisexual men in Atlanta, GA.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to mitigate HIV transmission among gay and bisexual men have not been sufficient to level persistent racial inequities which now extend to the use of daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. Community-involved ethnographic research is crucial to galvanizing collaboration between patients, researchers, and policymakers to identify the social determinants of emerging PrEP inequities. In partnership with community key informants, we conducted a Rapid Ethnographic Assessment (REA) of multilevel PrEP use determinants among young Black gay and bisexual (YBGBM) men in the metropolitan Atlanta area to inform the development and coordination of local HIV programs. METHODS: In the assessment, we drew upon the perspectives of local clinicians, community-based organization leaders, health educators, and PrEP clients to identify barriers and facilitators to PrEP use among YBGBM through interviews (N = 23). Data were collected from September 2020 -to January 2021 and were analyzed through a staged deductive-inductive thematic analysis. The themes were later summarized and presented to community stakeholder participants to facilitate member-checking. RESULTS: Our analyses revealed structural, cultural, relationship, and developmental factors which shaped PrEP use. The most prominent being "ease of access to PrEP" (structural level), "provider support" (interpersonal), and "life-stage traits" (individual). Our results also contribute novel information concerning the axes of intersectional stigma (spatial, racial, sexual identity, and HIV) among YBGBM in Atlanta and its divergent effects on PrEP use. CONCLUSION: Increased PrEP use among YBGBM, particularly among those living in the south, is essential to ending the domestic HIV epidemic. Altogether, our results emphasize the need for PrEP program modifications, which increase flexibility in methods and modes of access and are culturally adapted to the needs of YBGBM. There is also a need for resources that holistically focus on mental health, trauma, and racism as critical components of support.

Public Health Response to Clusters of Rapid HIV Transmission Among Hispanic or Latino Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men - Metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, 2021-2022.

During February 2021-June 2022, the Georgia Department of Public Health (GDPH) detected five clusters of rapid HIV transmission concentrated among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in metropolitan Atlanta. The clusters were detected through routine analysis of HIV-1 nucleotide sequence data obtained through public health surveillance (1,2). Beginning in spring 2021, GDPH partnered with health districts with jurisdiction in four metropolitan Atlanta counties (Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett) and CDC to investigate factors contributing to HIV spread, epidemiologic characteristics, and transmission patterns. Activities included review of surveillance and partner services interview data,† medical chart reviews, and qualitative interviews with service providers and Hispanic MSM community members. By June 2022, these clusters included 75 persons, including 56% who identified as Hispanic, 96% who reported male sex at birth, 81% who reported male-to-male sexual contact, and 84% of whom resided in the four metropolitan Atlanta counties. Qualitative interviews identified barriers to accessing HIV prevention and care services, including language barriers, immigration- and deportation-related concerns, and cultural norms regarding sexuality-related stigma. GDPH and the health districts expanded coordination, initiated culturally concordant HIV prevention marketing and educational activities, developed partnerships with organizations serving Hispanic communities to enhance outreach and services, and obtained funding for a bilingual patient navigation program with academic partners to provide staff members to help persons overcome barriers and understand the health care system. HIV molecular cluster detection can identify rapid HIV transmission among sexual networks involving ethnic and sexual minority groups, draw attention to the needs of affected populations, and advance health equity through tailored responses that address those needs.

Missed opportunities for prevention: prevalence and incidence of human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus diagnoses among a cohort of individuals discharged from an urban hospital with injection drug-related diagnoses, 2012-2019.

PURPOSE: Risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections has increased due to the ongoing opioid epidemic and unsafe injection practices. We estimated the prevalence and incidence of HIV and HCV diagnoses among people who inject drugs from hospital-based clinical encounters. METHODS: We linked clinical encounters at an Atlanta hospital during 2012-2018 with state HIV and HCV surveillance records to examine the prevalence of infections at discharge and incidence of infections post clinical encounter. RESULTS: At discharge, 32.9% and 28.6% of patients with injection drug use-related clinical encounters had an HIV or HCV diagnosis, respectively. HIV and HCV diagnoses at the time of discharge were mostly among 40-64 years old patients, males, and Black/African Americans. Post clinical encounter, 3.8% of patients were later diagnosed with HIV, and 16.5% were later diagnosed with HCV, translating to incidence rates of 9.3 per 1000 person-years and 41.5 per 1000 person-years, respectively. The majority of HIV and HCV diagnoses post clinical encounter occurred among Black/African Americans and males. Of patients with HIV and HCV diagnoses post clinical encounter, 27.3% and 11.9% had been tested during their clinical encounter, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Targeted interventions for HIV/HCV prevention, screening, diagnosis, and linkage to treatment are needed to reduce the incidence of new infections among people who inject drugs.

Impact of multi-agent systemic therapy on all-cause and disease-specific survival for people living with HIV who are diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma: population-based analyses from the state of Georgia.

For people living with HIV (PLWH) who are subsequently diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), we investigate the impact of standard-of-care (SoC) cancer treatment on all-cause, NHL-specific, and HIV-specific survival outcomes. The focus is on a registry-derived, population-based sample of HIV + adults diagnosed with NHL within 2004-2012 in the state of Georgia. SoC treatment is defined as receipt of multi-agent systemic therapy (MAST). In multivariable survival analyses, SoC cancer treatment is significantly associated with better all-cause and NHL-specific survival, but not better HIV-specific survival across 2004-2017. Having a CD4 count <200 near the time of cancer diagnosis and Ann Arbor stage III/IV disease are associated with worse all-cause and HIV-specific survival; the effects on NHL survival trend negative but are not significant. Future work should expand the geographic base and cancers examined, deepen the level of clinical detail brought to bear, and incorporate the perspectives and recommendations of patients and providers.

The Impact of Churn on HIV Outcomes in a Southern United States Clinical Cohort.

Background: Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) may experience a cycle of engaging and disengaging in care referred to as "churn." While human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) churn is predicted to be more prevalent in the southern United States (US), it has not been well characterized in this region. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving PWH newly establishing care at a large urban clinic in Atlanta, Georgia, from 2012 to 2017, with follow-up data collected through 2019. The primary exposure was churn, defined as a ≥12-month gap between routine clinic visits or viral load (VL) measurements. We compared HIV metrics before and after churn and assessed the risk of future churn or loss to follow-up. Results: Of 1303 PWH newly establishing care, 81.7% were male and 84.9% were Black; 200 (15.3%) experienced churn in 3.3 years of median follow-up time. The transmissible viremia (TV) rate increased from 28.6% prechurn to 66.2% postchurn (P < .0001). The 122 PWH having TV on reengagement had delayed time to subsequent viral suppression (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.59 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .48-.73]), and PWH returning to care contributed disproportionately to the community viral load (CVL) (proportion of CVL/proportion of patients, 1.96). Churn was not associated with an increased risk of subsequent churn (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.53 [95% CI, .79-2.97]) or loss to follow-up (aOR, 1.04 [95% CI, .60-1.79]). Conclusions: The rate of churn in a southern US clinic was high, and those who experienced churn had increased TV at reentry and disproportionately contributed to the CVL and likely contributing to ongoing HIV transmission.

Declining COVID-19 case-fatality in Georgia, USA, March 2020 to March 2021: a sign of real improvement or a broadening epidemic?

PURPOSE: To examine whether declines in the crude U.S. COVID-19 case fatality ratio is due to improved clinical care and/or other factors. METHODS: We used multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for age and other individual-level characteristics, to examine associations between report month and mortality among confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases and hospitalized cases in Georgia reported March 2, 2020 to March 31, 2021. RESULTS: Compared to August 2020, mortality risk among cases was lowest in November 2020 (OR = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.78-0.91) and remained lower until March 2021 (OR = 0.86; 95% CI: 0.77-0.95). Among hospitalized cases, mortality risk increased in December 2020 (OR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.07-1.27) and January 2021 (OR = 1.25; 95% CI: 1.14-1.36), before declining until March 2021 (OR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.78-1.04). CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for other factors, including the shift to a younger age distribution of cases, we observed lower mortality risk from November 2020 to March 2021 compared to August 2020 among cases. This suggests that improved clinical management may have contributed to lower mortality risk. Among hospitalized cases, mortality risk increased again in December 2020 and January 2021, but then decreased to a risk similar to that among all cases by March 2021.

Factors Associated with HIV Seroconversion Among Women Attending an Urban Health Clinic in the South: A Matched Case-Control Study.

Compared to knowledge about HIV risk factors among men in the south, less is known about risk factors for women. We conducted an individually matched case-control study to identify factors associated with HIV seroconversion among women. Cases had a clinician-assisted visit (CAV) between 2011 and 2016 at an Atlanta-based public health clinic before HIV diagnosis. Controls were women who visited the clinic but remained HIV negative. Controls were matched to cases in a 2:1 ratio on race, age at first CAV, and date of first CAV. Conditional logistic regression was used to develop a best-fitting model for characterizing HIV risk. Of 18,281 women who were HIV negative at their first visit, 110 (0.6%) seroconverted before 2019. Of these, 80 (73%) had a CAV before HIV diagnosis. Having multiple gonorrhea episodes, a syphilis episode, a greater number of sex partners in the past 2 months, anal sex, history of drug use, history of exchanging drugs or money for sex, and heterosexual sex with >1 sex partner in the last month were individually associated with HIV seroconversion. In multivariate analyses, having a syphilis episode [odds ratio (OR) = 4.7, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-16.3], anal sex (OR = 2.8, 95% CI: 1.0-8.1), and injection drug or crack cocaine use (OR = 33.5, 95% CI: 3.6-313.3) remained associated with HIV. Women having all three risk factors were six times more likely to seroconvert compared to women without these factors. Our results offer insights into which women in a southern HIV "hotspot" may be at greatest risk for HIV.

Biologic, clinical, and sociodemographic predictors of multi-agent systemic therapy for non-Hodgkin lymphoma in people living with HIV: a population-based investigation in the state of Georgia.

We conducted a population-based study of biologic, clinical, and sociodemographic factors associated with receipt of multi-agent systemic therapy (MAST) by people living with HIV (PLWH) who were diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). Building on recent registry-based analyses, we linked records from the Georgia Cancer Registry, Georgia HIV/AIDS Surveillance Registry, and the Georgia Hospital Discharge Database to identify 328 PLWH adults (age ≥ 18) diagnosed with NHL within 2004-2012. Through logistic regression modeling, we examined factors associated with patients receiving MAST for NHL. Robust predictors included CD4 count ≥200 cells/mm3 around the time of cancer diagnosis, an advanced stage (III or IV) diagnosis of NHL, MSM HIV transmission, and having private health insurance. The strongest single predictor of MAST was CD4 count. Because there is now guideline-integrated evidence that PLWH receiving standard-of-care cancer therapy can achieve substantially improved outcomes, it is vital they have access to regimens routinely provided to HIV-negative cancer patients.

Health Information Exchange: A Novel Re-linkage Intervention in an Urban Health System.

BACKGROUND: Public health information exchanges (HIEs) link real-time surveillance and clinical data and can help to re-engage out-of-care people with HIV (PWH). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of out-of-care PWH who generated an HIE alert in the Grady Health System (GHS) Emergency Department (ED) between January 2017 and February 2018. Alerts were generated for PWH who registered in the GHS ED without Georgia Department of Public Health (GDPH) CD4 or HIV-1 RNA in the prior 14 months. The alert triggered a social work (SW)-led re-linkage effort. Multivariate logistic regression analyses used HIE-informed SW re-linkage efforts as the independent variable, and linkage to care and 3- and 6-month viral suppression (HIV-1 RNA < 200 c/mL) as primary outcomes. Patients admitted to the hospital were excluded from primary analysis. RESULTS: One hundred forty-seven out-of-care patients generated an alert. Ninety-eight were included in the primary analysis (mean age [SD], 41 ± 12 years; 70% male; 93% African American), and 20 received the HIE-informed SW intervention. Sixty percent of patients receiving the intervention linked to care in 6 months, compared with 35% who did not. Patients receiving the intervention were more likely to link to care (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99-2.68) and no more likely to achieve viral suppression (aRR, 1.49; 95% CI, 0.50-4.46) than those who did not receive the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: An HIE-informed, SW-led intervention systematically identified out-of-care PWH and may increase linkage to care for this important population. HIEs create an opportunity to intervene with linkage and retention strategies.

Metabolic Syndrome Among People Living with HIV Receiving Medical Care in Southern United States: Prevalence and Risk Factors.

Using representative data among 1861 in care people living with HIV (PLWH) in four southern states (Texas, Mississippi, Florida, and Georgia) from the 2013-2014 Medical Monitoring Project (MMP) survey, we estimated the prevalence and odds of metabolic syndrome (MetS) among various demographic and HIV related risk factors. Overall MetS prevalence was 34%, with our participants being mostly black (55%), male (72%), ≥ 50 years old (46%), and overweight or obese (60%) with undetectable viral loads (≤ 200 copies/ml, 69%), and were currently taking antiretroviral medication (98%). Compared to those who were ≥ 60 years, 18-39 year olds had a 79% (95% CI 0.13-0.33) lower odds of having MetS. Women were 2.24 times more likely to have MetS than men (95% CI 1.69-2.97). Age and sex were significant predictors of MetS. Since MetS is a combination of chronic disease risk factors, regular screening for MetS risk factors among aging PLWH is crucial.

Evaluating Facility Infrastructure for Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV-A 2015 Assessment of Major Delivery Hospitals in Atlanta, Georgia.

OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to evaluate the infrastructure of programs for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in major delivery units in the Atlanta, Georgia, metropolitan statistical area and to assess the knowledge, attitude, and practice of providers in these facilities around PMTCT. METHODS: Hospital assessments and individual knowledge and practices were surveyed among 71 healthcare providers from March 2015 to March 2016 in 11 hospitals that deliver 40000 infants annually, which represents 70% of all deliveries in the Atlanta metropolitan statistical area. Included were questions about HIV testing for mother-infant pairs, test result turnaround times, policies and procedures for PMTCT, opt-out versus opt-in testing, availability of rapid point-of-care testing on labor and delivery units, and postnatal prophylaxis. RESULTS: Seventy-three percent (8 of 11) of the hospitals had limitations in their PMTCT infrastructure, and 36% (4 of 11) reported no standardized policies for care of HIV-infected women. Three labor and delivery units used opt-in HIV testing of women. Only 27% (3 of 11) of the hospitals reported nucleic acid testing of HIV-exposed infants. Oral zidovudine for infant prophylaxis was available in all the hospitals, but 64% (7 of 11) of them did not stock nevirapine. Fifty-nine percent (24 of 44) of the obstetricians did not routinely offer rapid testing at delivery without a third-trimester HIV test, and 78% (n = 32 of 41) of them did not offer testing at delivery if the woman declined antenatal testing. The facility with the most annual births in Georgia did not offer rapid testing at delivery for women with an unknown HIV status. CONCLUSION: We identified several limitations in PMTCT infrastructure that might have contributed to perinatal HIV transmissions. The need to address these healthcare gaps to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of HIV in the United States is urgent.

A cross-jurisdictional evaluation of insurance coverage among HIV care patients following the Affordable Care Act.

The impact of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on HIV care patients, aged 18-64, was evaluated in three jurisdictions with Medicaid expansion (Chicago, New York State, and Washington) and three jurisdictions without Medicaid expansion (Georgia, Texas, and Virginia) using data from the Medical Monitoring Project. Multivariate regression models were used to evaluate insurance status that was reported pre- and post-ACA; self-reported impact of ACA on HIV care was explored with descriptive statistics. The likelihood of having insurance was significantly greater post-ACA compared to pre-ACA in Chicago (aRR = 1.33, 95%CI = 1.20, 1.47), Washington (aRR = 1.15, 95%CI = 1.08, 1.22), and Virginia (aRR = 1.14, 95%CI = 1.00, 1.29). In Washington and Chicago, the likelihood of being Medicaid-insured was greater post-ACA compared to pre-ACA implementation (Chicago: aRR = 1.25, 95%CI = 1.03,1.53; Washington: aRR = 1.66 95% CI = 1.30, 2.13). No other significant differences were observed. Only a subset of HIV care patients (range: 15-35%) reported a change in insurance that would have coincided with the implementation of ACA; and within this subset, a change in medical care costs was the most commonly noted issue. In conclusion, the influence of ACA on insurance coverage and other factors affecting HIV care likely varies by jurisdiction.

Quantifying and explaining accessibility with application to the 2009 H1N1 vaccination campaign.

Accessibility and equity across populations are important measures in public health. This paper is specifically concerned with potential spatial accessibility, or the opportunity to receive care as moderated by geographic factors, and with horizontal equity, or fairness across populations regardless of need. Both accessibility and equity were goals of the 2009 vaccination campaign for the novel H1N1a influenza virus, including during the period when demand for vaccine exceeded supply. Distribution system design can influence equity and accessibility at the local level. We develop a general methodology that integrates optimization, game theory, and spatial statistics to measure potential spatial accessibility across a network, where we quantify spatial accessibility by travel distance and scarcity. We estimate and make inference on local (census-tract level) associations between accessibility and geographic, socioeconomic, and health care infrastructure factors to identify potential inequities in vaccine accessibility during the 2009 H1N1 vaccination campaign in the U.S. We find that there were inequities in access to vaccine at the local level and that these were associated with factors including population density and health care infrastructure. Our methodology for measuring and explaining accessibility leads to policy recommendations for federal, state, and local public health officials. The spatial-specific results inform the development of equitable distribution plans for future public health efforts.

Achieving NHAS 90/90/80 Objectives by 2020: An Interactive Tool Modeling Local HIV Prevalence Projections.

BACKGROUND: Tools using local HIV data to help jurisdictions estimate future demand for medical and support services are needed. We present an interactive prevalence projection model using data obtainable from jurisdictional HIV surveillance and publically available data. METHODS: Using viral load data from Georgia's enhanced HIV/AIDS Reporting System, state level death rates for people living with HIV and the general population, and published estimates for HIV transmission rates, we developed a model for projecting future HIV prevalence. Keeping death rates and HIV transmission rates for undiagnosed, in care/viral load >200, in care/viral load<200, and out of care (no viral load for 12 months) constant, we describe results from simulations with varying inputs projecting HIV incidence and prevalence from 2014 to 2024. RESULTS: In this model, maintaining Georgia's 2014 rates for diagnosis, transitions in care, viral suppression (VS), and mortality by sub-group through 2020, resulted in 85% diagnosed, 59% in care, and 44% VS among diagnosed (85%/58%/44%) with a total of 67 815 PLWH, 33 953 in care, and more than 1000 new cases per year by 2020. Neither doubling the diagnosis rate nor tripling rates of re-engaging out of care PLWH into care alone were adequate to reach 90/90/80 by 2020. We demonstrate a multicomponent scenario that achieved NHAS goals and resulted in 63 989 PLWH, 57 546 in care, and continued annual prevalence increase through 2024. CONCLUSIONS: Jurisdictions can use this HIV prevalence prediction tool, accessible at https://dph.georgia.gov/hiv-prevalence-projections to assess local capacity to meet future HIV care and social services needs. In this model, achieving 90/90/80 by 2020 in Georgia slowed but did not reverse increases in HIV prevalence, and the number of HIV-infected persons needing care and support services more than doubled. Improving the HIV care infrastructure is imperative.