Identifying priority populations for lung cancer screening intervention using neighborhood-level factors and cancer registry data.

To evaluate the association of neighborhood level economic, environmental, and social indicators with lung cancer (LC) incidence and mortality. Data for adult incident LC cases in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, diagnosed between 2015-2019 were obtained from Pennsylvania cancer registry. Cases were summarized at census-tract level. Publicly available data on neighborhood deprivation index (NDI), built environment, and racial isolation at census-tracts were linked to cases. Poisson regression was used to compute relative risk (RR) for LC incidence and mortality, adjusting for covariates. A total of 3256 LC cases were included in the analyses. About 68% were ≥65 years, 54% female, 14% Black or African American, and 63% deceased. Results of the multivariable model found that increasing quintiles (Q) of NDI were significantly associated with increasing risk of LC incidence and mortality. The RRs (95% confidence interval) of LC incidence for Q2, Q3, Q4 and Q5 were 1.36 (1.21-1.52), 1.55 (1.40-1.72), 1.68 (1.51-1.87), 2.08 (1.82-2.38), respectively, compared with Q1 (P trend <0.01). The corresponding RRs for LC mortality were 1.46 (1.27-1.68), 1.63 (1.42-1.88), 1.74 (1.51-2.01), 2.04 (2.02-2.88) (P trend <0.01). Targeted interventions for LC prevention and early detection in high NDI neighborhoods may be more effective to reduce LC health disparities.

Age at menarche by birth cohort: A pooled analysis of half a million women in Asia.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate changes in the age at menarche in Asian populations. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We included 548,830 women from six countries in Asia. The data were sourced from 20 cohorts participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium (ACC) and two additional cohort studies: Japan Multi-institutional Collaborative Cohorts (J-MICC), and Japan Nurse Health Study (JNHS) with data on age at menarche. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate changes in age at menarche by birth year and by country. RESULTS: The study includes data from cohorts in six Asian countries namely, China, Iran, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Birth cohorts ranged from 1873 to 1995. The mean age of menarche was 14.0 years with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.4 years, ranged from 12.6 to 15.5 years. Over 100 years age at menarche showed an overall decrease in all six countries. China showed a mixed pattern of decrease, increase, and subsequent decrease from 1926 to 1960. Iran and Malaysia experienced a sharp decline between about 1985 and 1990, with APC values of -4.48 and -1.24, respectively, while Japan, South Korea, and Singapore exhibited a nearly linear decline since the 1980s, notably with an APC of -3.41 in Singapore from 1993 to 1995. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we observed a declining age at menarche, while the pace of the change differed by country. Additional long-term observation is needed to examine the contributing factors of differences in trend across Asian countries. The study could serve as a tool to strengthen global health campaigns.

The Epstein-Barr virus nuclear antigen 1 variant associated with nasopharyngeal carcinoma defines the sequence criteria for serologic risk prediction.

PURPOSE: Antibodies to select Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) proteins can diagnose early-stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We have previously shown that IgA against EBV nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA1) can predict incident NPC in high- and intermediate-risk cohorts 4 years pre-diagnosis. Here, we tested EBNA1 variants, with mutants, to define the sequence requirements for an NPC risk assay. DESIGN: Mammalian-expressed constructs were developed to represent EBNA1 variants 487V and 487A which can differ by ≥15 amino acids in the N- and C-termini. Denatured lysates were evaluated by a refined IgA and IgG immunoblot assay in a case-control study using pre-diagnostic NPC sera from two independent cohorts in Singapore and Shanghai, P.R. China. RESULTS: At 95% sensitivity, 487V yielded a 94.9% specificity compared to 86.1% for 487A. EBNA1 deleted for the conserved glycine-alanine repeats (GAr) reduced false positives by 22.8%. NPC sera reacted more strongly to the C-terminus than healthy controls, but the C-terminal construct (a.a. 390-641) showed lower specificity (84.8%) than the EBNA1 GAr deleted construct (92.4%) at 95% sensitivity. CONCLUSION: Although EBNA1 IgA was present in healthy sera, most epitopes localized to the immunodominant GAr. We conclude that a refined EBNA1 antigen deleted for the GAr but with residues consistently detected in Southeast Asian NPC tumors is optimal for risk prediction with an extended sojourn time of 7.5 years. Furthermore, distinct EBNA1 serologic profiles enhanced the utility of the EBNA1 IgA assay for risk stratification. This illustrates the importance of serologically relevant EBNA1 sequences for NPC risk prediction and early detection.

Comparison of race- and ethnicity-specific BMI cutoffs for categorizing obesity severity: a multicountry prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare race- and ethnicity-specific BMI cutoffs for the three classes of obesity based on equivalent risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: Participants without T2D were included from the UK Biobank, the China Health and Nutrition Survey, and the Singapore Chinese Health Study. Poisson regressions with restricted cubic splines were applied to determine BMI cutoffs for each non-White race and ethnicity for equivalent incidence rates of T2D at BMI values of 30.0, 35.0, and 40.0 kg/m2 in White adults. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 13.8 years among 507,763 individuals, 5.2% developed T2D. In women, BMI cutoffs for an equivalent incidence rate of T2D as observed at 40.0 kg/m2 in White adults were 31.6 kg/m2 in Black, 29.2 kg/m2 in British Chinese, 27.3 kg/m2 in South Asian, 26.9 kg/m2 in Native Chinese, and 25.1 kg/m2 in Singapore Chinese adults. In men, the corresponding BMI cutoffs were 31.9 kg/m2 in Black, 30.6 kg/m2 in British Chinese, 29.0 kg/m2 in South Asian, 29.6 kg/m2 in Native Chinese, and 27.6 kg/m2 in Singapore Chinese adults. The race and ethnicity order was consistent when equivalent BMI cutoffs were estimated for class I and II obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Establishing a race- and ethnicity-tailored classification of the three classes of obesity is urgently needed.

Body Mass Index and Risk of Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Asia.

Importance: The global burden of obesity is increasing, as are colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality. Objectives: To assess the association between body mass index (BMI) and risks of incident CRC and CRC-related death in the Asian population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study includes data pooled from 17 prospective cohort studies included in The Asia Cohort Consortium. Cohort enrollment was conducted from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2002. Median follow-up time was 15.2 years (IQR, 12.1-19.2 years). Data were analyzed from January 15, 2023, through January 15, 2024. Exposure: Body mass index, calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were CRC incidence and CRC-related mortality. The risk of events is reported as adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) and 95% CIs for incident CRC and death from CRC using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results: To assess the risk of incident CRC, 619 981 participants (mean [SD] age, 53.8 [10.1] years; 52.0% female; 11 900 diagnosed incident CRC cases) were included in the study, and to assess CRC-related mortality, 650 195 participants (mean [SD] age, 53.5 [10.2] years; 51.9% female; 4550 identified CRC deaths) were included in the study. A positive association between BMI and risk of CRC was observed among participants with a BMI greater than 25.0 to 27.5 (AHR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.03-1.16]), greater than 27.5 to 30.0 (AHR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.11-1.29]), and greater than 30.0 (AHR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.19-1.46]) compared with those with a BMI greater than 23.0 to 25.0 (P < .001 for trend), and BMI was associated with a greater increase in risk for colon cancer than for rectal cancer. A similar association between BMI and CRC-related death risk was observed among participants with a BMI greater than 27.5 (BMI >27.5-30.0: AHR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.04-1.34]; BMI >30.0: AHR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.18-1.62]; P < .001 for trend) and was present among men with a BMI greater than 30.0 (AHR, 1.87 [95% CI, 1.49-2.34]; P < .001 for trend) but not among women (P = .15 for trend) (P = .02 for heterogeneity). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study that included a pooled analysis of 17 cohort studies comprising participants across Asia, a positive association between BMI and CRC incidence and related mortality was found. The risk was greater among men and participants with colon cancer. These findings may have implications to better understand the burden of obesity on CRC incidence and related deaths in the Asian population.

Telomere length and clonal chromosomal alterations in peripheral blood of patients with severe aplastic anaemia.

Severe aplastic anaemia (SAA) is a rare and life-threatening bone marrow failure disorder. We used data from the transplant outcomes in aplastic anaemia study to characterize mosaic chromosomal alterations (mCAs) in the peripheral blood of 738 patients with acquired SAA and evaluate their associations with telomere length (TL) and survival post-haematopoietic cell transplant (HCT). The median age at HCT was 20.4 years (range = 0.2-77.4). Patients with SAA had shorter TL than expected for their age (median TL percentile for age: 35.7th; range <1-99.99). mCAs were detected in 211 patients (28.6%), with chr6p copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity (6p-CNLOH) in 15.9% and chr7 loss in 3.0% of the patients; chrX loss was detected in 4.1% of female patients. Negative correlations between mCA cell fraction and measured TL (r = -0.14, p = 0.0002), and possibly genetically predicted TL (r = -0.07, p = 0.06) were noted. The post-HCT 3-year survival probability was low in patients with chr7 loss (39% vs. 72% in patients with chr6-CNLOH, 60% in patients with other mCAs and 70% in patients with no mCAs; p-log rank = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, short TL (p = 0.01), but not chr7 loss (p = 0.29), was associated with worse post-HCT survival. TL may guide clinical decisions in patients with SAA.

The causal effect of adult height on late-life handgrip strength: The Singapore Chinese Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Adult height has been associated with handgrip strength, which is a surrogate marker of physical frailty. However, it is uncertain if this association is causative or due to confounding bias. METHODS: We evaluated pairwise associations among handgrip strength, adult height and genetically determined height [using a polygenic score (PGS) for height in a mediation framework and a two-sample Mendelian randomisation approach] by means of multivariable regression model using a prospective cohort of Chinese living in Singapore. We additionally evaluated pathway enrichments of height-related genes in relation to increased handgrip strength to discover common biological mechanisms underlying associations of genetically determined height with handgrip strength. RESULTS: Height PGS exhibited a positive association with handgrip strength at late life after adjusting for midlife body weight and other baseline exposures (cigarette smoking, education and physical activity status, P=1.2×10-9). Approximately 66.4% of the total effect of height PGS on handgrip strength was mediated through adult height (ßindirect-effect=0.034, Pindirect-effect=1.4×10-40). Two-sample Mendelian randomisation evaluations showed a consistent causal relationship between increased height and increased handgrip strength in late life (P between 6.6×10-4 and 3.9×10-18), with insignificant horizontal pleiotropic effects (PMR-Egger  intercept=0.853). Pathway analyses of genes related to both increased adult height and handgrip strength revealed enrichment in ossification and adipogenesis pathways (Padj between 0.034 to 6.8×10-4). CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights on a potentially causal effect between increased adult height and increased handgrip strength at late life, which may be explained by related biological processes underlying preservation of muscle mass and strength in ageing.

Waterpipe Tobacco Smoking and Risk of Cancer Mortality.

Importance: There has been an increasing trend of using noncigarette products, including waterpipe tobacco (WTP), worldwide. While cigarette smoking is a well-established risk factor for numerous cancers, little is known about the association between WTP smoking and cancer mortality. Objective: To assess the association between WTP smoking and risk of cancer mortality in Vietnam. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was based on data from the Hanoi Prospective Cohort Study, an ongoing study with a median (range) follow-up of 11.0 (0.1-11.6) years for participants aged 15 years or older in Northern Vietnam from 2007 through 2019. Data were analyzed from June 1 to September 1, 2023. Exposures: Tobacco smoking and WTP smoking statuses. Main Outcomes and Measures: Overall and site-specific cancer mortality. Cox proportional regression models were used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CIs for the associations between WTP smoking alone, cigarette smoking alone, and dual WTP and cigarette smoking and the risk of cancer death. Results: A total of 554 cancer deaths were identified among the 39 401 study participants (mean [SD] age, 40.4 [18.8] years; 20 616 females [52.3%]). In multivariable models, compared with never smokers, ever smokers had a significantly increased risk of cancer mortality (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.48-2.35). Exclusive WTP smokers had the highest risk of cancer mortality compared with never smokers (HR, 2.66; 95% CI, 2.07-3.43). Risk of cancer mortality was higher for dual smokers of WTP and cigarettes (HR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.53-2.76) than for exclusive cigarette smokers (HR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.41-2.45). As most smokers (95.6% [8897 of 9312]) were male, these patterns were more apparent in male participants. Compared with never smokers, exclusive WTP smoking among males was associated with an elevated risk of death from liver cancer (HR, 3.92; 95% CI, 2.25-6.85), lung cancer (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.08-5.88), nasopharyngeal carcinoma (HR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.27-6.12), and stomach cancer (HR, 4.11; 95% CI, 2.04-8.27). For exclusive WTP smokers, the risk of cancer mortality was highest among those who smoked 11 to 15 sessions per day (HR, 3.42; 95% CI, 2.03-5.75), started smoking at age 26 to 30 years (HR, 4.01; 95% CI, 2.63-6.11), smoked for 9 to 20 years (HR, 4.04; 95% CI, 2.16-7.56), and smoked 61 to 160 sessions annually (HR, 3.68; 95% CI, 2.38-5.71). For males, the risk of cancer death was lower for those who had quit smoking for more than 10 years, compared with those who quit smoking within 1 year (HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.11-0.66; P for trend < .001). Conclusion and Relevance: In this cohort study in Vietnam, WTP smoking alone or in combination with cigarette smoking was associated with an increased risk of cancer death due to liver cancer, lung cancer, nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and stomach cancer. A tailored program to control WTP smoking is warranted in Vietnam and low- and middle-income countries with a high prevalence of smoking and modest resources to address smoking-related issues.

Severe obesity is associated with worse outcomes than lean metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is highly prevalent in people with obesity. We aimed to study the association of body mass index (BMI) with clinical outcomes in patients with MASLD. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of 32,900 patients with MASLD, identified through the International Classification of Diseases-9 and 10 codes within the electronic health records of a large US-based health system, with a mean follow-up of 5.5 years (range: 1-15 y), was stratified into 6 BMI categories, <25, 25-<30, 30-<40, 40-<50, and ≥50 kg/m2. RESULTS: The risk of liver decompensation and extrahepatic obesity-associated cancers had a J-shaped profile (both ps for linear and quadratic terms <0.05). Compared to patients with BMI 25-<30 kg/m2, the adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for liver decompensation of patients with BMI <25 and BMI ≥50 kg/m2 were 1.44 (1.17-1.77) and 2.27 (1.66-3.00), respectively. The corresponding figures for obesity-associated extrahepatic cancer were 1.15 (0.97-1.36) and 1.29 (1.00-1.76). There was an inverse association for BMI with liver transplantation and non-obesity-associated cancer (both ps for linear terms <0.05), but no association with HCC or all types of cancers combined. A similar J-shaped association between BMI and all-cause mortality was observed; adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for BMI <25 and ≥50 kg/m2 were 1.51 (1.32-1.72) and 3.24 (2.67-3.83), respectively, compared with BMI 25-<30 kg/m2 (both ps for linear and quadratic terms <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with MASLD and very severe obesity (BMI ≥50 kg/m2) had the highest risk, exceeding that of patients with lean MASLD, for developing liver decompensation, obesity-associated extrahepatic cancers, or dying from any cause.

Characterizing the Relationship between Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTLs), DNA Methylation Quantitative Trait Loci (mQTLs), and Breast Cancer Risk Variants.

PURPOSE: To assess the association of a polygenic risk score (PRS) for functional genetic variants with the risk of developing breast cancer. METHODS: Summary data-based Mendelian randomization (SMR) and heterogeneity in dependent instruments (HEIDI) were used to identify breast cancer risk variants associated with gene expression and DNA methylation levels. A new SMR-based PRS was computed from the identified variants (functional PRS) and compared to an established 313-variant breast cancer PRS (GWAS PRS). The two scores were evaluated in 3560 breast cancer cases and 3383 non-cancer controls and also in a prospective study (n = 10,213) comprising 418 cases. RESULTS: We identified 149 variants showing pleiotropic association with breast cancer risk (eQTLHEIDI > 0.05 = 9, mQTLHEIDI > 0.05 = 165). The discriminatory ability of the functional PRS (AUCcontinuous [95% CI]: 0.540 [0.526 to 0.553]) was found to be lower than that of the GWAS PRS (AUCcontinuous [95% CI]: 0.609 [0.596 to 0.622]). Even when utilizing 457 distinct variants from both the functional and GWAS PRS, the combined discriminatory performance remained below that of the GWAS PRS (AUCcontinuous, combined [95% CI]: 0.561 [0.548 to 0.575]). A binary high/low-risk classification based on the 80th centile PRS in controls revealed a 6% increase in cases using the GWAS PRS compared to the functional PRS. The functional PRS identified an additional 12% of high-risk cases but also led to a 13% increase in high-risk classification among controls. Similar findings were observed in the SCHS prospective cohort, where the GWAS PRS outperformed the functional PRS, and the highest-performing PRS, a combined model, did not significantly improve over the GWAS PRS. CONCLUSIONS: While this study identified potentially functional variants associated with breast cancer risk, their inclusion did not substantially enhance the predictive accuracy of the GWAS PRS.

Changing global epidemiology of chronic hepatitis C virus-related outcomes from 2010 to 2019: cirrhosis is the growing burden of hepatitis C virus-related disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) has a long-term impact on hepatic consequences. A comprehensive evaluation of the global burden of HCV-related health outcomes can help to develop a global HCV prevention and treatment program. METHODS: We used the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to comprehensively investigate burden and temporal trends in incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of HCV-related diseases, including liver cancer and cirrhosis and other liver diseases across 264 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019. RESULTS: Globally, there were 152 225 incident cases, 141 811 deaths and approximately 2.9 million DALYs because of HCV-related liver cancer, and 551 668 incident cases, 395 022 deaths and about 12.2 million DALYs because of HCV-related cirrhosis in 2019. Worldwide, during the 2010-2019 period, liver cancer incidence declined, however, there was a 62% increase in cirrhosis incidence. In 2019, the Eastern Mediterranean was the region with the highest rates of incidence and mortality of both liver cancer and cirrhosis. Africa was the region with the fastest-growing trend of incidence of cirrhosis in the 2010-2019 period [annual percentage change (APC) = 2.09, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.93-2.25], followed by the Western Pacific region (APC = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.09-1.22). Americas were the only region observing increased trends in liver cancer and cirrhosis mortality (APC = 0.70 and 0.12, respectively). We identified three patterns of temporal trends of mortality rates of liver cancer and cirrhosis in countries that reported HCV treatment rates. CONCLUSION: Urgent measures are required for diagnosis, treatment and research on HCV-related cirrhosis at global, regional and country levels, particularly in Africa, the Western Pacific and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Diabetes is associated with increased liver cancer incidence and mortality in adults: A report from Asia Cohort Consortium.

There has been growing evidence suggesting that diabetes may be associated with increased liver cancer risk. However, studies conducted in Asian countries are limited. This project considered data of 968,738 adults pooled from 20 cohort studies of Asia Cohort Consortium to examine the association between baseline diabetes and liver cancer incidence and mortality. Cox proportional hazard model and competing risk approach was used for pooled data. Two-stage meta-analysis across studies was also done. There were 839,194 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer incidence (5654 liver cancer cases [48.29/100,000 person-years]), follow-up time and baseline diabetes (44,781 with diabetes [5.3%]). There were 747,198 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer mortality (5020 liver cancer deaths [44.03/100,000 person-years]), follow-up time and baseline diabetes (43,243 with diabetes [5.8%]). Hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [95%CI]) of liver cancer diagnosis in those with vs. without baseline diabetes was 1.97 (1.79, 2.16) (p < .0001) after adjusting for baseline age, gender, body mass index, tobacco smoking, alcohol use, and heterogeneity across studies (n = 586,072; events = 4620). Baseline diabetes was associated with increased cumulative incidence of death due to liver cancer (adjusted HR (95%CI) = 1.97 (1.79, 2.18); p < .0001) (n = 595,193; events = 4110). A two-stage meta-analytic approach showed similar results. This paper adds important population-based evidence to current literature regarding the increased incidence and mortality of liver cancer in adults with diabetes. The analysis of data pooled from 20 studies of different Asian countries and the meta-analysis across studies with large number of subjects makes the results robust.

Low-Carbohydrate Diet Score and Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Findings from a Prospective Cohort Study.

Limited data are reported on the association between low-carbohydrate diet (LCD) score, a comprehensive measure of dietary pattern according to sources of carbohydrate, fat, and protein, and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We evaluated this score with HCC risk in the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a prospective cohort of 63,275 middle-aged and elderly Chinese living in Singapore and recruited during 1993-1998 period. LCD scores were derived from the semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline. A nested case-control study involved 197 HCC cases and 465 controls was also constructed among 28,346 participants who provided blood samples. Cox proportional hazard regression method was used to calculate HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for HCC with different levels of LCD scores. Conditional logistic regression was performed for the case-control study analysis. After 17.6 years of follow-up with 819,573 person-years, 561 participants developed primary HCC. Although there was a null association between total LCD score and HCC risk (HRper-SD increment = 1.07; 95% CI, 0.98-1.16; Ptrend = 0.06), there was a positive association between animal-based LCD and the risk of HCC (HRper-SD increment = 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.21; Ptrend = 0.01). Furthermore, this association was present in both HBsAg-negative and HBsAg-positive individuals in the case-control study. In stratified analysis for the entire cohort, this positive association was only present in those who consumed alcoholic beverages monthly or less frequent but not in weekly or daily drinker (Pinteraction = 0.79). In summary, a diet with lower carbohydrate, higher animal fat and protein was significantly associated with higher risk of HCC among Chinese Singaporeans. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: In a large cohort study of more than 63,000 Chinese Singaporeans, we found that a diet with lower carbohydrate and higher animal fat and protein was associated with increased risk of HCC, suggesting that dietary modification could be an effective strategy in primary prevention to reduce the HCC burden.

Association of female reproductive and hormonal factors with gallbladder cancer risk in Asia: A pooled analysis of the Asia Cohort Consortium.

The female predominance of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has led to a hypothesis regarding the hormone-related aetiology of GBC. We aimed to investigate the association between female reproductive factors and GBC risk, considering birth cohorts of Asian women. We conducted a pooled analysis of 331,323 women from 12 cohorts across 4 countries (China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore) in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between reproductive factors (age at menarche, parity, age at first delivery, breastfeeding, and age at menopause) and GBC risk. We observed that a later age at menarche was associated with an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.16-1.70 for 17 years and older vs. 13-14 years), especially among the cohort born in 1940 and later (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.50-4.35). Among the cohort born before 1940, women with a later age at first delivery showed an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.08-2.24 for 31 years of age and older vs. 20 years of age and younger). Other reproductive factors did not show a clear association with GBC risk. Later ages at menarche and at first delivery were associated with a higher risk of GBC, and these associations varied by birth cohort.

A Pre-Leukemic DNA Methylation Signature in Healthy Individuals at Higher Risk for Developing Myeloid Malignancy.

PURPOSE: DNA methylation alterations are widespread in acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), some of which appear to have evolved independently of somatic mutations in epigenetic regulators. Although the presence of somatic mutations in peripheral blood can predict the risk of development of AML and MDS, its accuracy remains unsatisfactory. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We performed global DNA methylation profiling in a case control study nested within the Singapore Chinese Health Study to evaluate whether DNA methylation alterations were associated with AML/MDS development. Targeted deep sequencing and methylated DNA immunoprecipitation sequencing (MeDIP-seq) were performed on peripheral blood collected a median of 9.9 years before diagnosis of AML or MDS, together with age-matched still-healthy individuals as controls. RESULTS: Sixty-six individuals who developed AML or MDS displayed significant DNA methylation changes in the peripheral blood compared with 167 age- and gender-matched controls who did not develop AML/MDS during the follow-up period. Alterations in methylation in the differentially methylation regions were associated with increased odds of developing AML/MDS. CONCLUSIONS: The epigenetic changes may be acquired independently and before somatic mutations that are relevant for AML/MDS development. The association between methylation changes and the risk of pre-AML/MDS in these individuals was considerably stronger than somatic mutations, suggesting that methylation changes could be used as biomarkers for pre-AML/MDS screening.

Association between reproductive factors with lung cancer incidence and mortality: A pooled analysis of over 308,000 females in the Asia cohort consortium.

Previous studies have investigated the association between reproductive factors and lung cancer risk; however, findings have been inconsistent. In order to assess this association among Asian women, a total of 308,949 female participants from 11 prospective cohorts and four Asian countries (Japan, Korea, China, and Singapore) were included. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 3,119 primary lung cancer cases and 2247 lung cancer deaths were identified with a mean follow-up of 16.4 years. Parous women had a lower risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality as compared with nulliparous women, with HRs of 0.82 (95% CI = 0.70-0.96) and 0.78 (95% CI = 0.65-0.94). The protective association of parity and lung cancer incidence was greater among ever-smokers (HR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.87) than in never-smokers (HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.74-1.09) (P-interaction = 0.029). Compared with age at first delivery ≤20 years, older age at first delivery (21-25, ≥26 years) was associated with a lower risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality. Women who ever used hormone replacements had a higher likelihood of developing non-small cell lung cancer (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.02-1.68), compared to those who never used hormone replacements. Future studies are needed to assess the underlying mechanisms, the relationships within these female reproductive factors, and the potential changes in smoking habits over time.

Epigenome-wide association study of total nicotine equivalents in multiethnic current smokers from three prospective cohorts.

The impact of tobacco exposure on health varies by race and ethnicity and is closely tied to internal nicotine dose, a marker of carcinogen uptake. DNA methylation is strongly responsive to smoking status and may mediate health effects, but study of associations with internal dose is limited. We performed a blood leukocyte epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) of urinary total nicotine equivalents (TNEs; a measure of nicotine uptake) and DNA methylation measured using the MethylationEPIC v1.0 BeadChip (EPIC) in six racial and ethnic groups across three cohort studies. In the Multiethnic Cohort Study (discovery, n = 1994), TNEs were associated with differential methylation at 408 CpG sites across >250 genomic regions (p < 9 × 10-8). The top significant sites were annotated to AHRR, F2RL3, RARA, GPR15, PRSS23, and 2q37.1, all of which had decreasing methylation with increasing TNEs. We identified 45 novel CpG sites, of which 42 were unique to the EPIC array and eight annotated to genes not previously linked with smoking-related DNA methylation. The most significant signal in a novel gene was cg03748458 in MIR383;SGCZ. Fifty-one of the 408 discovery sites were validated in the Singapore Chinese Health Study (n = 340) and the Southern Community Cohort Study (n = 394) (Bonferroni corrected p < 1.23 × 10-4). Significant heterogeneity by race and ethnicity was detected for CpG sites in MYO1G and CYTH1. Furthermore, TNEs significantly mediated the association between cigarettes per day and DNA methylation at 15 sites (average 22.5%-44.3% proportion mediated). Our multiethnic study highlights the transethnic and ethnic-specific methylation associations with internal nicotine dose, a strong predictor of smoking-related morbidities.

BMI and breast cancer risk around age at menopause.

BACKGROUND: A high body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) is associated with decreased risk of breast cancer before menopause, but increased risk after menopause. Exactly when this reversal occurs in relation to menopause is unclear. Locating that change point could provide insight into the role of adiposity in breast cancer etiology. METHODS: We examined the association between BMI and breast cancer risk in the Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaborative Group, from age 45 up to breast cancer diagnosis, loss to follow-up, death, or age 55, whichever came first. Analyses included 609,880 women in 16 prospective studies, including 9956 who developed breast cancer before age 55. We fitted three BMI hazard ratio (HR) models over age-time: constant, linear, or nonlinear (via splines), applying piecewise exponential additive mixed models, with age as the primary time scale. We divided person-time into four strata: premenopause; postmenopause due to natural menopause; postmenopause because of interventional loss of ovarian function (bilateral oophorectomy (BO) or chemotherapy); postmenopause due to hysterectomy without BO. Sensitivity analyses included stratifying by BMI in young adulthood, or excluding women using menopausal hormone therapy. RESULTS: The constant BMI HR model provided the best fit for all four menopausal status groups. Under this model, the estimated association between a five-unit increment in BMI and breast cancer risk was HR=0.87 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.89) before menopause, HR=1.00 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.04) after natural menopause, HR=0.99 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.05) after interventional loss of ovarian function, and HR=0.88 (95% CI: 0.76, 1.02) after hysterectomy without BO. CONCLUSION: The BMI breast cancer HRs remained less than or near one during the 45-55 year age range indicating that the transition to a positive association between BMI and risk occurs after age 55.

Genome-wide association study identifies high-impact susceptibility loci for HCC in North America.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Despite the substantial impact of environmental factors, individuals with a family history of liver cancer have an increased risk for HCC. However, genetic factors have not been studied systematically by genome-wide approaches in large numbers of individuals from European descent populations (EDP). APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted a 2-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) on HCC not affected by HBV infections. A total of 1872 HCC cases and 2907 controls were included in the discovery stage, and 1200 HCC cases and 1832 controls in the validation. We analyzed the discovery and validation samples separately and then conducted a meta-analysis. All analyses were conducted in the presence and absence of HCV. The liability-scale heritability was 24.4% for overall HCC. Five regions with significant ORs (95% CI) were identified for nonviral HCC: 3p22.1, MOBP , rs9842969, (0.51, [0.40-0.65]); 5p15.33, TERT , rs2242652, (0.70, (0.62-0.79]); 19q13.11, TM6SF2 , rs58542926, (1.49, [1.29-1.72]); 19p13.11 MAU2 , rs58489806, (1.53, (1.33-1.75]); and 22q13.31, PNPLA3 , rs738409, (1.66, [1.51-1.83]). One region was identified for HCV-induced HCC: 6p21.31, human leukocyte antigen DQ beta 1, rs9275224, (0.79, [0.74-0.84]). A combination of homozygous variants of PNPLA3 and TERT showing a 6.5-fold higher risk for nonviral-related HCC compared to individuals lacking these genotypes. This observation suggests that gene-gene interactions may identify individuals at elevated risk for developing HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Our GWAS highlights novel genetic susceptibility of nonviral HCC among European descent populations from North America with substantial heritability. Selected genetic influences were observed for HCV-positive HCC. Our findings indicate the importance of genetic susceptibility to HCC development.

Radiomics analysis to predict pulmonary nodule malignancy using machine learning approaches.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose CT screening can reduce lung cancer-related mortality. However, most screen-detected pulmonary abnormalities do not develop into cancer and it often remains challenging to identify malignant nodules, particularly among indeterminate nodules. We aimed to develop and assess prediction models based on radiological features to discriminate between benign and malignant pulmonary lesions detected on a baseline screen. METHODS: Using four international lung cancer screening studies, we extracted 2060 radiomic features for each of 16 797 nodules (513 malignant) among 6865 participants. After filtering out low-quality radiomic features, 642 radiomic and 9 epidemiological features remained for model development. We used cross-validation and grid search to assess three machine learning (ML) models (eXtreme Gradient Boosted Trees, random forest, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)) for their ability to accurately predict risk of malignancy for pulmonary nodules. We report model performance based on the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration metrics in the held-out test set. RESULTS: The LASSO model yielded the best predictive performance in cross-validation and was fit in the full training set based on optimised hyperparameters. Our radiomics model had a test-set AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.96) and outperformed the established Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer model (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.89) for nodule assessment. Our model performed well among both solid (AUC 0.93, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.97) and subsolid nodules (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: We developed highly accurate ML models based on radiomic and epidemiological features from four international lung cancer screening studies that may be suitable for assessing indeterminate screen-detected pulmonary nodules for risk of malignancy.