Predicting functional impairment trajectories in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a probabilistic, multifactorial model of disease progression.

OBJECTIVE: To employ Artificial Intelligence to model, predict and simulate the amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) progression over time in terms of variable interactions, functional impairments, and survival. METHODS: We employed demographic and clinical variables, including functional scores and the utilisation of support interventions, of 3940 ALS patients from four Italian and two Israeli registers to develop a new approach based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) that models the ALS evolution over time, in two distinct scenarios of variable availability. The method allows to simulate patients' disease trajectories and predict the probability of functional impairment and survival at different time points. RESULTS: DBNs explicitly represent the relationships between the variables and the pathways along which they influence the disease progression. Several notable inter-dependencies were identified and validated by comparison with literature. Moreover, the implemented tool allows the assessment of the effect of different markers on the disease course, reproducing the probabilistically expected clinical progressions. The tool shows high concordance in terms of predicted and real prognosis, assessed as time to functional impairments and survival (integral of the AU-ROC in the first 36 months between 0.80-0.93 and 0.84-0.89 for the two scenarios, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Provided only with measurements commonly collected during the first visit, our models can predict time to the loss of independence in walking, breathing, swallowing, communicating, and survival and it can be used to generate in silico patient cohorts with specific characteristics. Our tool provides a comprehensive framework to support physicians in treatment planning and clinical decision-making.

A metaproteomic-based gut microbiota profiling in children affected by autism spectrum disorders.

During the last decade, the evidences on the relationship between neurodevelopmental disorders and the microbial communities of the intestinal tract have considerably grown. Particularly, the role of gut microbiota (GM) ecology and predicted functions in Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) has been especially investigated by 16S rRNA targeted and shotgun metagenomics, trying to assess disease signature and their correlation with cognitive impairment or gastrointestinal (GI) manifestations of the disease. Herein we present a metaproteomic approach to point out the microbial gene expression profiles, their functional annotations, and the taxonomic distribution of gut microbial communities in ASD children. We pursued a LC-MS/MS based investigation, to compare the GM profiles of patients with those of their respective relatives and aged-matched controls, providing a quantitative evaluation of bacterial metaproteins by SWATH analysis. All data were managed by a multiple step bioinformatic pipeline, including network analysis. In particular, comparing ASD subjects with CTRLs, up-regulation was found for some metaproteins associated with Clostridia and with carbohydrate metabolism (glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate and glutamate dehydrogenases), while down-regulation was observed for others associated with Bacteroidia (SusC and SusD family together with the TonB dependent receptor). Moreover, network analysis highlighted specific microbial correlations among ASD subgroups characterized by different functioning levels and GI symptoms. SIGNIFICANCE: To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first metaproteomic investigation on the gut microbiota of ASD children compared with relatives and age-matched CTRLs. Remarkably, the applied SWATH methodology allowed the attribution of differentially regulated functions to specific microbial taxa, offering a novel and complementary point of view with respect to previous studies.

Thioredoxin reductase-1 levels are associated with NRF2 pathway activation and tumor recurrence in non-small cell lung cancer.

Activating mutations in the KEAP1/NRF2 pathway characterize a subset of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) associated with chemoresistance and poor prognosis. We herein evaluated the relationship between 64 oxidative stress-related genes and overall survival data from 35 lung cancer datasets. Thioredoxin reductase-1 (TXNRD1) stood out as the most significant predictor of poor outcome. In a cohort of NSCLC patients, high TXNRD1 protein levels correlated with shorter disease-free survival and distal metastasis-free survival post-surgery, including a subset of individuals treated with platinum-based adjuvant chemotherapy. Bioinformatics analysis revealed that NSCLC tumors harboring genetic alterations in the NRF2 pathway (KEAP1, NFE2L2 and CUL3 mutations, and NFE2L2 amplification) overexpress TXNRD1, while no association with EGFR, KRAS, TP53 and PIK3CA mutations was found. In addition, nuclear accumulation of NRF2 overlapped with upregulated TXNRD1 protein in NSCLC tumors. Functional cell assays and gene dependency analysis revealed that NRF2, but not TXNRD1, has a pivotal role in KEAP1 mutant cells' survival. KEAP1 mutants overexpress TXNRD1 and are less susceptible to the cytotoxic effects of the TXNRD1 inhibitor auranofin when compared to wild-type cell lines. Inhibition of NRF2 with siRNA or ML-385, and glutathione depletion with buthionine-sulfoximine, sensitized KEAP1 mutant A549 cells to auranofin. NRF2 knockdown and GSH depletion also augmented cisplatin cytotoxicity in A549 cells, whereas auranofin had no effect. In summary, these findings suggest that TXNRD1 is not a key determinant of malignant phenotypes in KEAP1 mutant cells, although this protein can be a surrogate marker of NRF2 pathway activation, predicting tumor recurrence and possibly other aggressive phenotypes associated with NRF2 hyperactivation in NSCLC.

Addressing practical issues of predictive models translation into everyday practice and public health management: a combined model to predict the risk of type 2 diabetes improves incidence prediction and reduces the prevalence of missing risk predictions.

INTRODUCTION: Many predictive models for incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) exist, but these models are not used frequently for public health management. Barriers to their application include (1) the problem of model choice (some models are applicable only to certain ethnic groups), (2) missing input variables, and (3) the lack of calibration. While (1) and (2) drives to missing predictions, (3) causes inaccurate incidence predictions. In this paper, a combined T2D risk model for public health management that addresses these three issues is developed. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The combined T2D risk model combines eight existing predictive models by weighted average to overcome the problem of missing incidence predictions. Moreover, the combined model implements a simple recalibration strategy in which the risk scores are rescaled based on the T2D incidence in the target population. The performance of the combined model was compared with that of the eight existing models using data from two test datasets extracted from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA; n=1031) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA; n=4820). Metrics of discrimination, calibration, and missing incidence predictions were used for the assessment. RESULTS: The combined T2D model performed well in terms of both discrimination (concordance index: 0.83 on MESA; 0.77 on ELSA) and calibration (expected to observed event ratio: 1.00 on MESA; 1.17 on ELSA), similarly to the best-performing existing models. However, while the existing models yielded a large percentage of missing predictions (17%-45% on MESA; 63%-64% on ELSA), this was negligible with the combined model (0% on MESA, 4% on ELSA). CONCLUSIONS: Leveraging on existing literature T2D predictive models, a simple approach based on risk score rescaling and averaging was shown to provide accurate and robust incidence predictions, overcoming the problem of recalibration and missing predictions in practical application of predictive models.

Integrative Network Fusion: A Multi-Omics Approach in Molecular Profiling.

Recent technological advances and international efforts, such as The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), have made available several pan-cancer datasets encompassing multiple omics layers with detailed clinical information in large collection of samples. The need has thus arisen for the development of computational methods aimed at improving cancer subtyping and biomarker identification from multi-modal data. Here we apply the Integrative Network Fusion (INF) pipeline, which combines multiple omics layers exploiting Similarity Network Fusion (SNF) within a machine learning predictive framework. INF includes a feature ranking scheme (rSNF) on SNF-integrated features, used by a classifier over juxtaposed multi-omics features (juXT). In particular, we show instances of INF implementing Random Forest (RF) and linear Support Vector Machine (LSVM) as the classifier, and two baseline RF and LSVM models are also trained on juXT. A compact RF model, called rSNFi, trained on the intersection of top-ranked biomarkers from the two approaches juXT and rSNF is finally derived. All the classifiers are run in a 10x5-fold cross-validation schema to warrant reproducibility, following the guidelines for an unbiased Data Analysis Plan by the US FDA-led initiatives MAQC/SEQC. INF is demonstrated on four classification tasks on three multi-modal TCGA oncogenomics datasets. Gene expression, protein expression and copy number variants are used to predict estrogen receptor status (BRCA-ER, N = 381) and breast invasive carcinoma subtypes (BRCA-subtypes, N = 305), while gene expression, miRNA expression and methylation data is used as predictor layers for acute myeloid leukemia and renal clear cell carcinoma survival (AML-OS, N = 157; KIRC-OS, N = 181). In test, INF achieved similar Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) values and 97% to 83% smaller feature sizes (FS), compared with juXT for BRCA-ER (MCC: 0.83 vs. 0.80; FS: 56 vs. 1801) and BRCA-subtypes (0.84 vs. 0.80; 302 vs. 1801), improving KIRC-OS performance (0.38 vs. 0.31; 111 vs. 2319). INF predictions are generally more accurate in test than one-dimensional omics models, with smaller signatures too, where transcriptomics consistently play the leading role. Overall, the INF framework effectively integrates multiple data levels in oncogenomics classification tasks, improving over the performance of single layers alone and naive juxtaposition, and provides compact signature sizes.

A Dynamic Bayesian Network model for the simulation of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis progression.

BACKGROUND: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is an adult-onset neurodegenerative disease progressively affecting upper and lower motor neurons in the brain and spinal cord. Mean life expectancy is three to five years, with paralysis of muscles, respiratory failure and loss of vital functions being the common causes of death. Clinical manifestations of ALS are heterogeneous due to the mix of anatomic regions involvement and the variability in disease course; consequently, diagnosis and prognosis at the level of individual patient is really challenging. Prediction of ALS progression and stratification of patients into meaningful subgroups have been long-standing interests to clinical practice, research and drug development. METHODS: We developed a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model on more than 4500 ALS patients included in the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials Database (PRO-ACT), in order to detect probabilistic relationships among clinical variables and identify risk factors related to survival and loss of vital functions. Furthermore, the DBN was used to simulate the temporal evolution of an ALS cohort predicting survival and the time to impairment of vital functions (communication, swallowing, gait and respiration). A first attempt to stratify patients by risk factors and simulate the progression of ALS subgroups was also implemented. RESULTS: The DBN model provided the prediction of ALS most probable trajectories over time in terms of important clinical outcomes, including survival and loss of autonomy in functional domains. Furthermore, it allowed the identification of biomarkers related to patients' clinical status as well as vital functions, and unrevealed their probabilistic relationships. For instance, DBN found that bicarbonate and calcium levels influence survival time; moreover, the model evidenced dependencies over time among phosphorus level, movement impairment and creatinine. Finally, our model provided a tool to stratify patients into subgroups of different prognosis studying the effect of specific variables, or combinations of them, on either survival time or time to loss of autonomy in specific functional domains. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis of the risk factors and the simulation allowed by our DBN model might enable better support for ALS prognosis as well as a deeper insight into disease manifestations, in a context of a personalized medicine approach.

Multi-omics integration for neuroblastoma clinical endpoint prediction.

BACKGROUND: High-throughput methodologies such as microarrays and next-generation sequencing are routinely used in cancer research, generating complex data at different omics layers. The effective integration of omics data could provide a broader insight into the mechanisms of cancer biology, helping researchers and clinicians to develop personalized therapies. RESULTS: In the context of CAMDA 2017 Neuroblastoma Data Integration challenge, we explore the use of Integrative Network Fusion (INF), a bioinformatics framework combining a similarity network fusion with machine learning for the integration of multiple omics data. We apply the INF framework for the prediction of neuroblastoma patient outcome, integrating RNA-Seq, microarray and array comparative genomic hybridization data. We additionally explore the use of autoencoders as a method to integrate microarray expression and copy number data. CONCLUSIONS: The INF method is effective for the integration of multiple data sources providing compact feature signatures for patient classification with performances comparable to other methods. Latent space representation of the integrated data provided by the autoencoder approach gives promising results, both by improving classification on survival endpoints and by providing means to discover two groups of patients characterized by distinct overall survival (OS) curves. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Djork-Arné Clevert and Tieliu Shi.

Gut microbiota profiling of pediatric nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and obese patients unveiled by an integrated meta-omics-based approach.

There is evidence that nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is affected by gut microbiota. Therefore, we investigated its modifications in pediatric NAFLD patients using targeted metagenomics and metabolomics. Stools were collected from 61 consecutive patients diagnosed with nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL), nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), or obesity and 54 healthy controls (CTRLs), matched in a case-control fashion. Operational taxonomic units were pyrosequenced targeting 16S ribosomal RNA and volatile organic compounds determined by solid-phase microextraction gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The α-diversity was highest in CTRLs, followed by obese, NASH, and NAFL patients; and ß-diversity distinguished between patients and CTRLs but not NAFL and NASH. Compared to CTRLs, in NAFLD patients Actinobacteria were significantly increased and Bacteroidetes reduced. There were no significant differences among the NAFL, NASH, and obese groups. Overall NAFLD patients had increased levels of Bradyrhizobium, Anaerococcus, Peptoniphilus, Propionibacterium acnes, Dorea, and Ruminococcus and reduced proportions of Oscillospira and Rikenellaceae compared to CTRLs. After reducing metagenomics and metabolomics data dimensionality, multivariate analyses indicated a decrease of Oscillospira in NAFL and NASH groups and increases of Ruminococcus, Blautia, and Dorea in NASH patients compared to CTRLs. Of the 292 volatile organic compounds, 26 were up-regulated and 2 down-regulated in NAFLD patients. Multivariate analyses found that combination of Oscillospira, Rickenellaceae, Parabacteroides, Bacteroides fragilis, Sutterella, Lachnospiraceae, 4-methyl-2-pentanone, 1-butanol, and 2-butanone could discriminate NAFLD patients from CTRLs. Univariate analyses found significantly lower levels of Oscillospira and higher levels of 1-pentanol and 2-butanone in NAFL patients compared to CTRLs. In NASH, lower levels of Oscillospira were associated with higher abundance of Dorea and Ruminococcus and higher levels of 2-butanone and 4-methyl-2-pentanone compared to CTRLs. CONCLUSION: An Oscillospira decrease coupled to a 2-butanone up-regulation and increases in Ruminococcus and Dorea were identified as gut microbiota signatures of NAFL onset and NAFL-NASH progression, respectively. (Hepatology 2017;65:451-464).