RESUMEN
Recent phenomena such as pandemics, geopolitical tensions, and climate change-induced extreme weather events have caused transportation network interruptions, revealing vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. A salient example is the March 2021 Suez Canal blockage, which delayed 432 vessels carrying cargo valued at $92.7 billion, triggering widespread supply chain disruptions. Our ability to model the spatiotemporal ramifications of such incidents remains limited. To fill this gap, we develop an agent-based complex network model integrated with frequently updated maritime data. The Suez Canal blockage is taken as a case study. The results indicate that the effects of such blockages go beyond the directly affected countries and sectors. The Suez Canal blockage led to global losses of about $136.9 ($127.5-$147.3) billion, with India suffering 75% of these losses. Global losses show a nonlinear relationship with the duration of blockage and exhibit intricate trends post blockage. Our proposed model can be applied to diverse blockage scenarios, potentially acting as an early-alert system for the ensuing supply chain impacts. Furthermore, high-resolution daily data post blockage offer valuable insights that can help nations and industries enhance their resilience against similar future events.
RESUMEN
The carbon emissions trading (CET) policy internalises the cost of carbon emission reductions borne by companies, which will affect the companies' investment and management decisions. From a micro perspective, this paper analyzes the impact on company investment expenditure and its transmission mechanism by implementing the CET policy. Based on panel data of China's A-share listed companies from eight carbon-intensive industries spanning 2010 to 2020, the time-varying difference-in-difference model and its extended model are used to evaluate the impact of the policy in the pilot areas. The results show that: first, based on the cost effect and legality theories, CET policy can reduce the investment expenditure of the companies by 71.95%. Second, CET policy reduces corporate investment expenditures by increasing corporate debt financing costs. When debt financing costs increase by 120.25%, the investment expenditures will reduce by 2.56% indirectly while the intermediary effect of equity financing costs is not significant. Finally, with the implementation of CET policy, the inhibitory effect on corporate investment expenditures has gradually increased. CET policy has a more significant inhibitory effect on investment expenditures of nonstate-owned companies and small-scale companies. The results have passed the robustness test and provide evidence for the policy-maker to balance microeconomic entity development and carbon reduction, and for companies to make optimization investment and financing decisions in response to policy shocks effectively.