Environmental assessment of diets: overview and guidance on indicator choice.

Comprehensive but interpretable assessment of the environmental performance of diets involves choosing a set of appropriate indicators. Current knowledge and data gaps on the origin of dietary foodstuffs restrict use of indicators relying on site-specific information. This Personal View summarises commonly used indicators for assessing the environmental performance of diets, briefly outlines their benefits and drawbacks, and provides recommendations on indicator choices for actors across multiple fields involved in activities that include the environmental assessment of diets. We then provide recommendations on indicator choices for actors across multiple fields involved in activities that use environmental assessments, such as health and nutrition experts, policy makers, decision makers, and private-sector and public-sector sustainability officers. We recommend that environmental assessment of diets should include indicators for at least the five following areas: climate change, biosphere integrity, blue water consumption, novel entities, and impacts on natural resources (especially wild fish stocks), to capture important environmental trade-offs. If more indicators can be handled in the assessment, indicators to capture impacts related to land use quantity and quality and green water consumption should be used. For ambitious assessments, indicators related to biogeochemical flows, stratospheric ozone depletion, and energy use can be added.

Interventions to increase circularity and reduce environmental impacts in food systems.

Applying specific circularity interventions to the food system may have environmental benefits. Using an iterative linear food system optimisation model (FOODSOM), we assess how changes in human diets, imports and exports, and the utilisation of waste streams impact land use and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). After including these circularity principles, land use and GHG emissions were on average 40% and 68% lower than in the current food system, primarily driven by a reduction in production volumes and a shift towards feeding the domestic population. Shifting from the current diet to a circular diet decreased land use with 43% and GHG emissions with 52%. Allowing up to half of each nutrient in the human diet to be imported, while balancing imports with equal exports in terms of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, also decreased land use (up to 34%) and GHG emissions (up to 26%) compared to no imported food. Our findings show that circularity interventions should not be implemented mutually exclusively; by combining a circular diet with imported food and fully utilising waste streams, the lowest land use and GHG emissions can be realised.

Risk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions.

Carbon sequestration in grasslands has been proposed as an important means to offset greenhouse gas emissions from ruminant systems. To understand the potential and limitations of this strategy, we need to acknowledge that soil carbon sequestration is a time-limited benefit, and there are intrinsic differences between short- and long-lived greenhouse gases. Here, our analysis shows that one tonne of carbon sequestrated can offset radiative forcing of a continuous emission of 0.99 kg methane or 0.1 kg nitrous oxide per year over 100 years. About 135 gigatonnes of carbon is required to offset the continuous methane and nitrous oxide emissions from ruminant sector worldwide, nearly twice the current global carbon stock in managed grasslands. For various regions, grassland carbon stocks would need to increase by approximately 25% - 2,000%, indicating that solely relying on carbon sequestration in grasslands to offset warming effect of emissions from current ruminant systems is not feasible.

Determining the transformative potential of circular agriculture initiatives.

Policymakers and scientists regard emerging circular initiatives as levers for transformations towards more sustainable food systems. However, it remains unclear how to determine the extent to which circular initiatives have transformative potential. That is, can these initiatives foster a transformation as a result of how they currently bring circularity into practice? In the transformation literature, the characteristics of transformative initiatives are conceptualised in a generic and abstract way. To address this gap, we develop a heuristic of five characteristics for potentially transformative circular agriculture initiatives, which we illustrate with examples of existing initiatives. The heuristic builds on the 'small wins' and circular agriculture literature. Initiatives that hold transformative potential contribute to circular agriculture principles with outcomes that are concrete, in-depth and both technological and social in nature. Additionally, these initiatives faced barriers and overcame them. The heuristic enables policymakers, who call for circular solutions, to identify truly transformative circular initiatives.

Recoupling livestock and feed production in the Netherlands to reduce environmental impacts.

In many places on earth, livestock and feed production are decoupled, as feed is grown in one region and fed to livestock in another. This disrupts nutrient cycles by depleting resources in feed producing regions and accumulating resources in livestock areas, which leads to environmental degradation. One solution is to recouple livestock and feed production at a more local level, which enhances nutrient circularity. Recoupling livestock and feed production creates a natural ceiling for livestock numbers based on the feed producing capacity of a region. In this study we assess the consequences of recoupling livestock and feed production (i.e., by avoiding the import and export of animal feed) on ammonia and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with and without feed-food competition. To this end, we used FOODSOM, an agro-ecological food system optimisation model representing the Dutch food system in this study. The Netherlands is one example of a region with high livestock densities and resource accumulation. We found that recoupling decreased livestock numbers (beef cattle: -100 %; dairy cattle: -29 %; broiler chickens: -57 %; laying hens: -67 %; pigs: -62 %; sheep -100 %) and animal-sourced food exports (-59 %) while still meeting the current human diet in the Netherlands. Consequently, ammonia emissions and GHG emissions decreased, and the nitrogen use efficiency increased from 31 % to 38 % at the food systems level. Recoupling alone was almost sufficient to meet national emission targets. Fully meeting these targets required further small changes in livestock numbers. Avoiding feed-food competition decreased livestock productivity and GHG emissions but did not improve nitrogen use efficiency. Total meat production could not meet domestic consumption levels while avoiding feed-food competition, and resulted in additional beef cattle. We show that recoupling livestock and feed production is a promising next step to enhance circularity while decreasing agricultures environmental impact.

The compatibility of circularity and national dietary recommendations for animal products in five European countries: a modelling analysis on nutritional feasibility, climate impact, and land use.

BACKGROUND: National food-based dietary guidelines (FBDGs) are generally designed from a human health perspective and often disregard sustainability aspects. Circular food production systems are a promising solution to achieve sustainable healthy diets. In such systems, closing nutrient cycles where possible and minimising external inputs contribute to reducing environmental impacts. This change could be made by limiting livestock feed to available low-opportunity-cost biomass (LOCB). We examined the compatibility of national dietary guidelines for animal products with livestock production on the basis of the feed supplied by available LOCB. METHODS: We investigated whether the national dietary recommendations for animal products for Bulgaria, Malta, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland could be met with domestically available LOCB. We used an optimisation model that allocates feed resources to different species of farm animals. Of the resulting scenarios, we assessed the nutritional feasibility, climate impact, and land use. FINDINGS: Our results showed the environmental benefits of reducing the recommended animal products in the FBDGs, and that animal products from LOCB could provide between 22% (Netherlands) and 47% (Switzerland) of total protein contributions of the FBDGs. This range covers a substantial part of the nutritional needs of the studied populations. To fully meet these needs, consumption of plant-based food could be increased. INTERPRETATION: Our results contribute to the discussion of what quantities of animal products in dietary guidelines are compatible with circular food systems. Thus, national dietary recommendations for animal products should be revised and recommended quantities lowered. This finding is consistent with recent efforts to include sustainability criteria in dietary guidelines. FUNDING: Swiss National Science Foundation and the Dutch Research Council.

Protein Quality in Perspective: A Review of Protein Quality Metrics and Their Applications.

For design of healthy and sustainable diets and food systems, it is important to consider not only the quantity but also the quality of nutrients. This is particularly important for proteins, given the large variability in amino acid composition and digestibility between dietary proteins. This article reviews measurements and metrics in relation to protein quality, but also their application. Protein quality methods based on concentrations and digestibility of individual amino acids are preferred, because they do not only allow ranking of proteins, but also assessment of complementarity of protein sources, although this should be considered only at a meal level and not a diet level. Measurements based on ileal digestibility are preferred over those on faecal digestibility to overcome the risk of overestimation of protein quality. Integration of protein quality on a dietary level should also be done based on measurements on an individual amino acid basis. Effects of processing, which is applied to all foods, should be considered as it can also affect protein quality through effects on digestibility and amino acid modification. Overall, protein quality data are crucial for integration into healthy and sustainable diets, but care is needed in data selection, interpretation and integration.

Circularity in animal production requires a change in the EAT-Lancet diet in Europe.

It is not known whether dietary guidelines proposing a limited intake of animal protein are compatible with the adoption of circular food systems. Using a resource-allocation model, we compared the effects of circularity on the supply of animal-source nutrients in Europe with the nutritional requirements of the EAT-Lancet reference diet. We found the two to be compatible in terms of total animal-source proteins but not specific animal-source foods; in particular, the EAT-Lancet guidelines recommend larger quantities of poultry meat over beef and pork, while a circular food system produces mainly milk, dairy-beef and pork. Compared with the EAT-Lancet reference diet, greenhouse gas emissions were reduced by up to 31% and arable land use reduced by up to 42%. Careful consideration of the feasible substitutability between animal-source foods is needed to define potential roles of animal products in circular human diets.

Black soldier fly reared on pig manure: Bioconversion efficiencies, nutrients in the residual material, greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions.

There is an increased interest for using insects, such as the black soldier fly, to treat surplus manure and upcycle nutrients into the food system. Understanding the influence that BSFL have on nutrient flows and nutrient losses during manure bioconversion is key for sustainability assessments. Here we quantified and compared nutrient balances, nutrient levels in residual materials and emissions of greenhouse gases and ammonia between manure incubated with black soldier fly larvae (BSFL) and manure without BSFL, during a 9-day experimental period. We obtained high analytical recoveries, ranging between 95 and 103%. We found that of the pig manure supplied, 12.5% of dry matter (DM), 13% of carbon, 25% of nitrogen, 14% of energy, 8.5% of phosphorus and 9% of potassium was stored in BSFL body mass. When BSFL were present, more carbon dioxide (247 vs 148 g/kg of DM manure) and ammonia-nitrogen (7 vs 4.5 g/kg of DM manure) emitted than when larvae were absent. Methane, which was the main contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, was produced at the same levels (1.3 vs 1.1 g/kg of DM manure) in both treatments, indicating the main role that manure microbial methane emissions play. Nitrous oxide was negligible in both treatments. The uptake of nutrients by the larvae and the higher carbon dioxide and ammonia emissions modified the nutrient composition of the residual material substantially relative to the fresh manure. Our study provides a reliable basis to quantify the environmental impact of using BSFL in future life cycle assessments.

Assessing dairy cow welfare during the grazing and housing periods on spring-calving, pasture-based dairy farms.

The different periods characterizing spring-calving, pasture-based dairy systems common in Ireland have seldom been the focus of large-scale dairy cow welfare research. Thus, the aim of this study was to devise and conduct an animal-based welfare assessment during both the grazing and housing periods on spring-calving, pasture-based dairy farms, to identify areas for improvement and establish benchmarks for indicators of good welfare. Assessment of seven animal-based welfare indicators was conducted during two visits (one each at grazing and housing) to 82 commercial dairy farms in southern Ireland. Herd-level descriptive statistics were performed for all welfare indicators at each visit, and differences between visits were analyzed using paired t-tests and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. A mean of 9% and 10% clinically lame cows (mobility scores 2 and 3) were observed at housing and grazing, respectively. Recommended body condition scores (BCS) were not met for a mean of 13% of cows at grazing and 23% at housing, with more over-conditioned cows present at housing than grazing (P < 0.001). Ocular discharge was uncommon in both periods. Prevalence of moderate and severe nasal discharge combined was lower during housing (5%) than grazing (7%). In both periods, similar mean levels of tail injury were observed: 2% to 3% of cows with tail lacerations, 9% with broken tails, and 8% (measured at housing only) with docked tails. Integument alterations involved primarily hair loss and were most prevalent on the hindquarters (26%) during grazing and on the head-neck-back (66%) and the hindquarter (32%) regions during housing. Cows displayed an avoidance distance of >1 m (indicative of a fearful response) from an approaching human in an average of 82% of grazing cows and 42% to 75% of housed cows, dependent on test location. Opportunities to improve welfare in this system were identified in the areas of tail injury prevention, nasal health, and the management of indoor housing and feeding. The performance of the top 20% of farms for each welfare indicator was used to establish benchmarks of: 0% to 5% clinical lameness, 0% to 12% of cows outside recommended BCS, 0% to 27% ocular discharge, 2% to 16% nasal discharge, 0% tail lacerations and docked tails, 0% to 3% tail breaks, 0% to 14% integument alterations, and 4% to 74% for avoidance distance of >1 m. These represent attainable targets for spring-calving pasture-based farms to promote good dairy cow welfare.

Understanding transitions in farming systems and their effects on livestock rearing and smallholder livelihoods in Telangana, India.

Increasing food demands are causing rapid transitions in farming systems, often involving intensified land and resource use. While transitioning has benefits regarding poverty alleviation and food outputs, it also causes environmental and social issues over time. This study aims to understand the transitions in farming systems in a region in Telangana, from 1997 to 2015, and their effect on livestock rearing and smallholder livelihoods. We also examine the impact of the transitions on lower caste groups and women in particular. We collected data using a combination of methods, i.e., a household survey, focus group discussions, and secondary data sources, to build a comprehensive picture of the transitions in the region. We found that subsistence mixed farming systems transitioned to market-orientated specialized systems over a short time span. As the transition process gained momentum, households either intensified their production or got marginalized. Technological interventions, development programs with integrated approaches, and market demand for certain agricultural produce triggered increased regional production but also led to the scarcity of water, land, and labor. The transitions marginalized some of the households, changed the role of livestock in farming, and have been inclusive of both lower caste groups and women in terms of increased ownership of large ruminants and access to technologies. However, for women specifically, further increase in workload in the context of farming is also found.

Yield gap analysis in dairy production systems using the mechanistic model LiGAPS-Dairy.

The difference between the theoretical maximum (potential) production and the actual production realized by farmers is referred to as the yield gap. The objectives of this study are to develop a mechanistic model for dairy cows that allows yield gap analysis in dairy production systems and to evaluate model performance. We extended and adapted an existing model for beef cattle to dairy cattle, and the new model was named Livestock simulator for Generic analysis of Animal Production Systems-Dairy cattle (LiGAPS-Dairy). Milk production and growth of an individual cow over its entire lifespan were described as a function of the animal's genotype, the ambient climate, feed quality, and available feed quantity. The model was parameterized for Holstein-Friesian cows. After calibration, we evaluated model performance by comparing simulated results and measured results from experimental farms in the Netherlands, which were not used for model calibration. Cows were permanently housed in stables, where the diet consisted of predetermined amounts of concentrates and ad libitum high-quality roughage. The mean absolute error (MAE) for simulated milk production per lactation was 12% of the measured milk production, whereas the MAE for simulated daily milk yields was 19%. The MAE for simulated feed intake per lactation was 10% of the measured feed intake, whereas the MAE for simulated daily feed intake was 19%. The average yield gap for dairy cows was 11% of the potential milk production (YP). Yield gap analysis indicated that for experimental farms in the Netherlands, the difference between YP and feed quality limited milk production (YL) of 1,009 kg fat- and protein-corrected milk was mainly explained by feed intake capacity (33%), protein deficiency (25%), cow weight at the start of experiments (23%), and heat stress (19%). The LiGAPS-Dairy model also indicated the periods during lactation in which these factors affected milk production. In our opinion, the overall model performance is acceptable for permanently housed cows under Dutch conditions. The model needs to be evaluated further for other production systems, countries and breeds. Thereafter, LiGAPS-Dairy can be used for yield gap analysis and exploration of options to increase resource use efficiency in dairy production.

Principles, drivers and opportunities of a circular bioeconomy.

A circular, bio-based economy could provide the pathway to a sustainable future. Here we present five ecological principles to guide biomass use towards a circular bioeconomy: safeguarding and regenerating the health of our (agro)ecosystems; avoiding non-essential products and the waste of essential ones; prioritizing biomass streams for basic human needs; utilizing and recycling by-products of (agro)ecosystems; and using renewable energy while minimizing overall energy use. Implementing these principles calls for a transformation of our current economic system, including fundamental changes to policies, technologies, organizations, social behaviour and markets.

Effect of different cleaning procedures on water use and bacterial levels in weaner pig pens.

Pork is one of the most globally eaten meats and the pig production chain contributes significantly to the water footprint of livestock production. However, very little knowledge is available about the on-farm factors that influence freshwater use in the pig production chain. An experiment was conducted to quantify the effect of three different washing treatments on freshwater use, bacterial levels [(total bacterial counts; TBC), Enterobacteriaceae and Staphylococcus] and cleaning time in washing of pens for weaning pigs. Three weaner rooms were selected with each room having 10 pens and a capacity to hold up to 14 pigs each. Pigs were weaned and kept in the pens for 7 weeks. Finally, the pens were cleaned before the next batch of pigs moved in. The washing treatments used were power washing and disinfection (WASH); presoaking followed by power washing and disinfection (SOAK), and presoaking followed by detergent, power washing and disinfection (SOAK + DETER). A water meter was used to collect water use data and swab samples were taken to determine the bacterial levels. The results showed that there was no overall effect of washing treatments on water use. However, there was an effect of treatment on the washing time (p<0.01) with SOAK and SOAK+DETER reducing the washing time per pen by 2.3 minutes (14%) and 4.2 minutes (27%) compared to WASH. Nonetheless, there was an effect of sampling time (before or after washing) (p<0.001) on the levels of TBC and Staphylococcus, but no effect was seen on Enterobacteriaceae levels. Thus, the washing treatments used in this study had no effect on the water use of the pork production chain. Although there was no difference in both water use and bacterial load, from a producer perspective, presoaking and detergent use can save time and labour costs, so this would be the preferred option.

Predicting nutrient excretion from dairy cows on smallholder farms in Indonesia using readily available farm data.

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to provide models to accurately predict nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) excretion of dairy cows on smallholder farms in Indonesia based on readily available farm data. METHODS: The generic model in this study is based on the principles of the Lucas equation, describing the relation between dry matter intake (DMI) and faecal N excretion to predict the quantity of faecal N (QFN). Excretion of urinary N and faecal P were calculated based on National Research Council recommendations for dairy cows. A farm survey was conducted to collect input parameters for the models. The data set was used to calibrate the model to predict QFN for the specific case. The model was validated by comparing the predicted quantity of faecal N with the actual quantity of faecal N (QFNACT) based on measurements, and the calibrated model was compared to the Lucas equation. The models were used to predict N and P excretion of all 144 dairy cows in the data set. RESULTS: Our estimate of true N digestibility equalled the standard value of 92% in the original Lucas equation, whereas our estimate of metabolic faecal N was -0.60 g/100 g DMI, with the standard value being -0.61 g/100 g DMI. Results of the model validation showed that the R2 was 0.63, the MAE was 15 g/animal/d (17% from QFNACT), and the RMSE was 20 g/animal/d (22% from QFNACT). We predicted that the total N excretion of dairy cows in Indonesia was on average 197 g/animal/d, whereas P excretion was on average 56 g/animal/d. CONCLUSION: The proposed models can be used with reasonable accuracy to predict N and P excretion of dairy cattle on smallholder farms in Indonesia, which can contribute to improving manure management and reduce environmental issues related to nutrient losses.

Effects of Dutch livestock production on human health and the environment.

Observed multiple adverse effects of livestock production have led to increasing calls for more sustainable livestock production. Quantitative analysis of adverse effects, which can guide public debate and policy development in this area, is limited and generally scattered across environmental, human health, and other science domains. The aim of this study was to bring together and, where possible, quantify and aggregate the effects of national-scale livestock production on 17 impact categories, ranging from impacts of particulate matter, emerging infectious diseases and odor annoyance to airborne nitrogen deposition on terrestrial nature areas and greenhouse gas emissions. Effects were estimated and scaled to total Dutch livestock production, with system boundaries including feed production, manure management and transport, but excluding slaughtering, retail and consumption. Effects were expressed using eight indicators that directly express Impact in the sense of the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response framework, while the remaining 14 express Pressures or States. Results show that livestock production may contribute both positively and negatively to human health with a human disease burden (expressed in disability-adjusted life years) of up to 4% for three different health effects: those related to particulate matter, zoonoses, and occupational accidents. The contribution to environmental impact ranges from 2% for consumptive water use in the Netherlands to 95% for phosphorus transfer to soils, and extends beyond Dutch borders. While some aggregation across impact categories was possible, notably for burden of disease estimates, further aggregation of disparate indicators would require normative value judgement. Despite difficulty of aggregation, the assessment shows that impacts receive a different contribution of different animal sectors. While some of our results are country-specific, the overall approach is generic and can be adapted and tuned according to specific contexts and information needs in other regions, to allow informed decision making across a broad range of impact categories.

The effect of intensive grazing systems on the rising plate meter calibration for perennial ryegrass pastures.

The rising plate meter (RPM) is used to measure grass height, which subsequently is used in a calibration equation to estimate herbage mass (HM), an important parameter for optimization of feed management in grazing systems. The RPM is placed on the sward and measures the resistance of the sward toward the plate, which depends not only on grass length, but also on sward structure. The accuracy of the calibration equation for the RPM to estimate HM across grazing systems, however, has not yet been evaluated. Therefore, our aim was to analyze the effect of intensive grazing systems on RPM calibration for perennial ryegrass pastures. To do so, we studied 2 grazing systems: compartmented continuous grazing (CCG) and strip grazing (SG), which differ in key grazing characteristics, such as pre- and post-grazing heights and period of regrowth, that may influence tiller density and vertical flexibility of the sward. The experiment was performed from April until October in 2016 and 2017 with 60 dairy cows, at a fixed stocking rate of 7.5 cows per hectare. To calibrate the RPM, 256 direct measurements of HM >4 cm (i.e., above stubble) were collected by cutting and weighing plots of grass for CCG and SG. Our main interest was in the HM above stubble because this is consumed by cows. Herbage mass <4 cm represents the stubble left after grazing. Differences in HM <4 cm may (partially) explain differences in HM >4 cm between the grazing systems. Therefore, HM <4 cm was additionally measured on 4 out of every 8 plots per grazing system by cutting out quadrats to 0 cm with an electric grass trimmer. Our results showed an average error margin in our calibration equations of 25 to 31%, expressed as the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) as a percentage of the observed HM >4 cm. Differences between grazing systems were relatively small, and including grazing system as a factor in the regression model to explain the increase in HM per centimeter of grass did not reduce the RMSEP of the model to any relevant extent. On the other hand, HM <4 cm was significantly greater on CCG compared with SG, with 2,042 kg of DM per hectare for CCG and 1,676 kg of DM per hectare for SG. The HM <4 cm, however, is not used for grazing, and this difference was not reflected in the HM >4 cm. Our results indicate that we can use one region-specific calibration equation for perennial ryegrass pastures across intensive grazing systems, despite relatively large differences in pre- and post-grazing heights and period of regrowth.

Correcting fresh grass allowance for rejected patches due to excreta in intensive grazing systems for dairy cows.

Dairy farms with intensive grazing systems combine grazing with supplemental feeding, which can be challenging because an incorrect balance between fresh grass allowance and feed supplementation results in inefficient use of the pasture, lower feed efficiency, and potential decreases in animal production. When estimating fresh grass allowance, we currently do not correct for the formation of rejected patches (RP) surrounding excreta, which can lead to overestimation of the potential fresh grass intake and hampers optimal grazing. In this study, therefore, we aim to quantify the formation of RP in intensive grazing systems and improve the quantification of fresh grass allowance. To do so, we studied 2 grazing systems (i.e., compartmented continuous grazing and strip grazing) that differ in key grazing characteristics, such as pre- and post-grazing heights and period of regrowth. The experiment was performed from April to October in 2016 and 2017 with 60 dairy cows at a fixed stocking rate of 7.5 cows/ha. Average pre-grazing grass height was measured with a rising plate meter. To quantify the formation of RP after grazing, individual grass height measurements were conducted after grazing and classified as RP or not, based on visual assessment. Our analysis showed that the average percentage of grassland covered with RP increased from around 22% at the end of May to around 43% at the end of July/beginning of August, and these percentages do not differ across grazing systems. The percentage of grassland covered with RP should be subtracted from the total grazed area to better estimate true fresh grass allowance.

Defining a land boundary for sustainable livestock consumption.

The need for more sustainable production and consumption of animal source food (ASF) is central to the achievement of the sustainable development goals: within this context, wise use of land is a core challenge and concern. A key question in feeding the future world is: how much ASF should we eat? We demonstrate that livestock raised under the circular economy concept could provide a significant, nonnegligible part (9-23 g/per capita) of our daily protein needs (~50-60 g/per capita). This livestock then would not consume human-edible biomass, such as grains, but mainly convert leftovers from arable land and grass resources into valuable food, implying that production of livestock feed is largely decoupled from arable land. The availability of these biomass streams for livestock then determines the boundaries for livestock production and consumption. Under this concept, the competition for land for feed or food would be minimized and compared to no ASF, including some ASF in the human diet could free up about one quarter of global arable land. Our results also demonstrate that restricted growth in consumption of ASF in Africa and Asia would be feasible under these boundary conditions, while reductions in the rest of the world would be necessary to meet land use sustainability criteria. Managing this expansion and contraction of future consumption of ASF is essential for achieving sustainable nutrition security.