RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Patients with acute stroke are at risk of respiratory or circulatory compromise resulting in vital instability, which can be captured through the widely used aggregated National Early Warning Score (NEWS). We aimed to assess the relation between vital instability (defined as NEWS of five or higher) and death or dependency at 90 days after stroke. METHODS: In this observational cohort study we studied 763 patients with ischaemic stroke (n = 400), intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) (n = 146) or subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) (n = 217), hospitalized to a Dutch tertiary referral hospital from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2018. We calculated NEWS for each 8 h time span during the first 72 h after hospitalization. We also decomposed NEWS into its three components respiration, circulation and consciousness. The primary outcome was death or dependency (modified Rankin Scale score ⩾3) at 90 days after stroke. The association of vital instability with functional dependency was examined using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Two hundred and twenty-seven (58%) patients with ischaemic stroke, 101 (69%) with ICH and 142 (65%) with SAH had at least one episode of vital instability. In patients with ischaemic stroke or SAH, vital instability was associated after adjustment for confounders with death or dependency (adjusted relative risk 1.55 ((95% CI) 1.25-1.93 and 2.13 (1.35-3.36), respectively)). This was mainly driven by impaired consciousness, which was associated with death or dependency in all types of stroke. Respiratory insufficiency and circulatory instability were associated with death or dependency only in SAH. CONCLUSION: Vital instability in the first 72 h of hospitalization for ischaemic stroke or SAH is associated with death or dependency at 90 days. Impaired consciousness was the main driver of this relationship. NEWS may not be appropriate for patients with acute stroke, mainly due to the dichotomous manner in which the level of consciousness is classified, and modification of NEWS should be considered for these patients.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Stroke patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) follow a particular survival pattern with a high short-term mortality, but if they survive the first 30âdays, a relatively favourable subsequent survival is observed. OBJECTIVES: The development and validation of two prognostic models predicting 30-day mortality for ICU patients with ischaemic stroke and for ICU patients with intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), analysed separately, based on parameters readily available within 24âh after ICU admission, and with comparison with the existing Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE-IV) model. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: All 85 ICUs participating in the Dutch National Intensive Care Evaluation database. PATIENTS: All adult patients with ischaemic stroke or ICH admitted to these ICUs between 2010 and 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Models were developed using logistic regressions and compared with the existing APACHE-IV model. Predictive performance was assessed using ROC curves, calibration plots and Brier scores. RESULTS: We enrolled 14â303 patients with stroke admitted to ICU: 8422 with ischaemic stroke and 5881 with ICH. Thirty-day mortality was 27% in patients with ischaemic stroke and 41% in patients with ICH. Important factors predicting 30-day mortality in both ischaemic stroke and ICH were age, lowest Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score in the first 24âh, acute physiological disturbance (measured using the Acute Physiology Score) and the application of mechanical ventilation. Both prognostic models showed high discrimination with an AUC 0.85 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.84 to 0.87] for patients with ischaemic stroke and 0.85 (0.83 to 0.86) in ICH. Calibration plots and Brier scores indicated an overall good fit and good predictive performance. The APACHE-IV model predicting 30-day mortality showed similar performance with an AUC of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.85 to 0.87) in ischaemic stroke and 0.87 (0.86 to 0.89) in ICH. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated two prognostic models for patients with ischaemic stroke and ICH separately with a high discrimination and good calibration to predict 30-day mortality within 24âh after ICU admission. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registration: Dutch Trial Registry ( https://www.trialregister.nl/ ); identifier: NTR7438.
Asunto(s)
Isquemia Encefálica , Accidente Cerebrovascular Isquémico , Accidente Cerebrovascular , Adulto , Humanos , Isquemia Encefálica/diagnóstico , Isquemia Encefálica/terapia , Accidente Cerebrovascular/diagnóstico , Accidente Cerebrovascular/terapia , Cuidados Críticos , Hemorragia Cerebral/diagnóstico , Pronóstico , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Accidente Cerebrovascular Isquémico/diagnóstico , Accidente Cerebrovascular Isquémico/terapia , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: Assessment of all-cause mortality of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke patients admitted to the ICU and comparison to the mortality of other critically ill ICU patients classified into six other diagnostic subgroups and the general Dutch population. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: All ICUs participating in the Dutch National Intensive Care Evaluation database. PATIENTS: All adult patients admitted to these ICUs between 2010 and 2015; patients were followed until February 2017. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of all 370,386 included ICU patients, 7,046 (1.9%) were stroke patients, 4,072 with ischemic stroke, and 2,974 with intracerebral hemorrhage. Short-term mortality in ICU-admitted stroke patients was high with 30 days mortality of 31% in ischemic stroke and 42% in intracerebral hemorrhage. In the longer term, the survival curve gradient among ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage patients stabilized. The gradual alteration of mortality risk after ICU admission was assessed using left-truncation with increasing minimum survival period. ICU-admitted stroke patients who survive the first 30 days after suffering from a stroke had a favorable subsequent survival compared with other diseases necessitating ICU admission such as patients admitted due to sepsis or severe community-acquired pneumonia. After having survived the first 3 months after ICU admission, multivariable Cox regression analyses showed that case-mix adjusted hazard ratios during the follow-up period of up to 3 years were lower in ischemic stroke compared with sepsis (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.06-1.36) and severe community-acquired pneumonia (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.39-1.77) and in intracerebral hemorrhage patients compared with these groups (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.98-1.33 and adjusted hazard ratio, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.28-1.73). CONCLUSIONS: Stroke patients who need intensive care treatment have a high short-term mortality risk, but this alters favorably with increasing duration of survival time after ICU admission in patients with both ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage, especially compared with other populations of critically ill patients such as sepsis or severe community-acquired pneumonia patients.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedad Crítica/mortalidad , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/estadística & datos numéricos , Accidente Cerebrovascular/mortalidad , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Comorbilidad , Escala de Coma de Glasgow , Accidente Cerebrovascular Hemorrágico/mortalidad , Humanos , Accidente Cerebrovascular Isquémico/mortalidad , Persona de Mediana Edad , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Análisis de Regresión , Factores de Riesgo , Factores Sexuales , Factores SocioeconómicosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To determine the predictive value of commonly used clinical variables upon ICU admission for long-term all-cause mortality and functional outcome of adult stroke patients admitted to the ICU. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: General and neurosurgical ICUs of the University College London Hospitals in North Central London. PATIENTS: All adult ICU patients with a clinical diagnosis of acute stroke admitted between February 2010 and May 2012. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Demographic and clinical data concerning the first 24 hours after ICU admission were obtained. Patients were followed until February 2016 to assess long-term survival. Functional outcome was determined using the modified Rankin Scale. We evaluated 131 critically ill stroke patients, with a median (interquartile range) age of 70 years (55-78 yr). One-year mortality rate was 52.7%. Surviving patients were followed up over a median (interquartile range) period of 4.3 years (4.0-4.8 yr). The multivariable model that best predicted long-term all-cause mortality indicated that mortality of critically ill stroke patients was predicted by high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, impaired consciousness (Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤ 8) as reason for ICU admission, low Glasgow Coma Scale sum score after 24 hours, and absence of brainstem reflexes. Long-term independent functional status occurred in 30.9% of surviving patients and was predicted by low Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, high Glasgow Coma Scale sum score at ICU admission, and absence of mass effect on CT scan. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in critically ill stroke patients is high and occurs most often shortly after the event. Less than one in three surviving patients is able to function independently after 1 year. This study has identified several clinical variables that predict long-term all-cause mortality and functional outcome among critically ill stroke patients and found that mainly acute physiologic disturbance and absolute values of neurologic clinical assessment are predictive.