A modelling approach to evaluate the present and future effectiveness of hypolimnetic withdrawal for the restoration of eutrophic Lake Varese (Northern Italy).

Hypolimnetic withdrawal has been applied as a restoration measure in lakes subject to eutrophication together with external load reduction, to decrease internal load by removing limiting nutrient phosphorus (P) from anoxic deep waters and contributing to the unloading of bottom sediments from previously deposited nutrients and organic matter. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of hypolimnetic withdrawal on Lake Varese, a 24 m-deep and 14.8 km2-large subalpine lake in North-Western Italy. The lake suffered from extended eutrophication in the second half of the 20th century due to uncontrolled delivery of untreated urban sewage. Several restoration measures have been implemented during the years, including hypolimnetic withdrawal. In 2019, a cooperative programme for the protection and management of the lake and its surroundings was launched, establishing a systematic annual hypolimnetic withdrawal in the stratified season since 2020. In this research, we calibrated a one-dimensional (1D) coupled ecological-hydrodynamic model (General Lake Model/Aquatic EcoDynamics - GLM/AED2) of Lake Varese with data surveyed in the lake in 2019-2021. Model simulations of the period 2020-2021 with and without the performed withdrawal proved the effectiveness of this measure on hypolimnetic P concentration reduction. Then, future simulations of 2023-2085 were carried out to predict the future efficiency of hypolimnetic withdrawal and of reductions in external nutrient loads under climate change scenarios. Results show that the prescribed withdrawal increases hypolimnetic temperatures. This effect, coupled with thermocline deepening due to global warming, will possibly lead to decreasing water mass stability in autumn and shorter stratification in the moderately deep Lake Varese, with an eventual decrease of P concentrations in the water column. The future effectiveness of hypolimnetic withdrawal is further discussed considering the possible role of dry periods.

Can reductions in water residence time be used to disrupt seasonal stratification and control internal loading in a eutrophic monomictic lake?

Anthropogenic eutrophication caused by excess loading of nutrients, especially phosphorus (P), from catchments is a major cause of lake water quality degradation. The release of P from bed sediments to the water column, termed internal loading, can exceed catchment P load in eutrophic lakes, especially those that stratify during warm summer periods. Managing internal P loading is challenging, and although a range of approaches have been implemented, long-term success is often limited, requiring lake-specific solutions. Here, we assess the manipulation of lake residence time to inhibit internal loading in Elterwater, a shallow stratifying lake in the English Lake District, UK. Since 2016, additional inflowing water has been diverted into the inner basin of Elterwater to reduce its water residence time, with the intention of limiting the length of the stratified period and reducing internal loading. Combining eight years of field data in a Before-After-Control-Impact study with process-based hydrodynamic modelling enabled the quantification of the residence time intervention effects on stratification length, water column stability, and concentrations of chlorophyll a and P. Annual water residence time was reduced during the study period by around 40% (4.9 days). Despite this change, the lake continued to stratify and developed hypolimnetic anoxia. As a result, there was little significant change in phosphorus (as total or soluble reactive phosphorus) or chlorophyll a concentrations. Summer stratification length was 2 days shorter and 7% less stable with the intervention. Our results suggest that the change to water residence time in Elterwater was insufficient to induce large enough physical changes to improve water quality. However, the minor physical changes suggest the management measure had some impact and that larger changes in water residence time may have the potential to induce reductions in internal loading. Future assessments of management requirements should combine multi-year observations and physical lake modelling to provide improved understanding of the intervention effect size required to alter the physical structure of the lake, leading to increased hypolimnetic oxygen and reduced potential for internal loading.

Meteolakes: An operational online three-dimensional forecasting platform for lake hydrodynamics.

Environmental management depends on high-quality monitoring and its meaningful interpretation. The combination of local weather dynamics, regional anthropogenic stresses and global environmental changes make the evaluation of monitoring information in dynamic freshwater systems a challenging task. While the lake ecosystems gather many complex biogeochemical interactions, they remain constrained by the same physical environment of mixing and transport. It is therefore crucial to obtain high-quality physical system insight. Three-dimensional hydrodynamic models are perfectly suited for providing such information. However, these models are complex to implement, and their use is often limited to modellers. Here, we aim to provide model output via a user-friendly platform to a broad audience ranging from scientists to public and governmental stakeholders. We present a unified approach merging the apparently diverse interests through meteolakes.ch, an online platform openly disseminating lake observations and three-dimensional numerical simulations in near real-time with short-term forecasts and data assimilation. Meteolakes is scalable to a broad range of devices, modular and distributed, hence allowing its expansion to other regions and hardware infrastructures. Since 2016, the platform has continuously provided timely synoptic lake information to more than 250,000 users. This web-based system was built not only to provide guidance to scientists in the design and analysis of field experiments and to foster interdisciplinary lake studies, but also to assist governmental agencies and professionals in the long-term policy and planning of water resources management. Finally, our system aimed at promoting awareness and understanding of the complexity of lakes and providing information to the public through user-friendly interfaces. This article details the design and operation of such a platform and its products. Applications are demonstrated by examples of a recent upwelling and a storm event. Both cases illustrate how Meteolakes help scientists in their quest for process understanding as well as water professionals and civil society in providing specific warnings.

Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network.

Excess nutrient inputs and climate change are two of multiple stressors affecting many lakes worldwide. Lake Vansjø in southern Norway is one such eutrophic lake impacted by blooms of toxic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), and classified as moderate ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. Future climate change may exacerbate the situation. Here we use a set of chained models (global climate model, hydrological model, catchment phosphorus (P) model, lake model, Bayesian Network) to assess the possible future ecological status of the lake, given the set of climate scenarios and storylines common to the EU project MARS (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). The model simulations indicate that climate change alone will increase precipitation and runoff, and give higher P fluxes to the lake, but cause little increase in phytoplankton biomass or changes in ecological status. For the storylines of future management and land-use, however, the model results indicate that both the phytoplankton biomass and the lake ecological status can be positively or negatively affected. Our results also show the value in predicting a biological indicator of lake ecological status, in this case, cyanobacteria biomass with a BN model. For all scenarios, cyanobacteria contribute to worsening the status assessed by phytoplankton, compared to using chlorophyll-a alone.

Modelagem da Lagoa da Pampulha: uma ferramenta para avaliar o impacto da bacia hidrográfica na dinâmica do fitoplâncton / Modelling Lake Pampulha: a tool for assessing the catchment area impacts on the phytoplankton dynamics

RESUMO No processo de urbanização, o aumento na proporção de superfícies impermeabilizadas e as mudanças no uso do solo são responsáveis por maiores volumes e velocidades do escoamento superficial, refletindo em uma maior capacidade de arraste e em um maior aporte de nutrientes nos corpos d'água receptores. O objetivo deste trabalho foi implementar uma ferramenta matemática capaz de reproduzir o impacto de mudanças na bacia hidrográfica sobre a dinâmica do fitoplâncton em um lago urbano. Neste artigo são apresentados o desenvolvimento e os resultados de um modelo integrado constituído de um modelo hidrológico, para simular vazões escoadas em uma bacia hidrográfica, e de um modelo hidrodinâmico e ecológico, para simular a biomassa fitoplanctônica em um corpo d'água urbano. A Lagoa da Pampulha (Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais), escolhida como estudo de caso, foi intensamente monitorada, assim como sua bacia de drenagem, entre outubro de 2011 e junho de 2013. Os dados obtidos foram utilizados para calibrar e validar ambos os modelos. Os resultados obtidos com o modelo hidrológico mostraram-se coerentes com as medidas realizadas em campo (o coeficiente de Nash variou entre 0,70 e 0,88). O modelo da lagoa representou corretamente a evolução da comunidade fitoplanctônica (erro médio absoluto normalizado: 0,25-0,42 e o coeficiente de Pearson: 0,82-0,89; p<0,0001). O monitoramento e a modelagem da lagoa mostraram que a proliferação de cianobactérias é bastante perturbada pelas desestratificações térmicas que ocorrem na lagoa em virtude de eventos meteorológicos. A ferramenta de simulação desenvolvida possui potencial para avaliar diferentes cenários de mudança das condições climáticas e das características da bacia, podendo auxiliar na gestão dos corpos d'água situados em meio urbano.

ABSTRACT In urban areas the increasing imperviousness is responsible for rising runoff volume and speed, leading to a greater capacity to load nutrients and pollutants into reservoirs. In order to study the impacts of catchment changes on the phytoplankton dynamics in urban lakes, a modelling approach in which a hydrological model is connected to an ecological lake model is proposed for Lake Pampulha (Brazil). In this paper we present the methodology used to link both models. Lake Pampulha and its catchment area were intensively monitored between October 2011 and June 2013 in order to provide data for the calibration and validation of both models. The results of the hydrologic model showed good agreement with the in situ measurements, and the Nash coefficient ranged from 0.70 to 0.88. The lake ecological model have successfully represented the cyanobacteria dynamics (normalized mean average error: 0.25-0.42, Pearson coefficient: 0.82-0.89, p<0.0001). Monitoring and modelling showed that cyanobacteria blooms are quite disturbed by water column mixing caused by rain events. The mathematical tool developed here can be used to assess different scenarios of climate changes or catchment area changes and can be very helpful for the management of urban water resources.