Uncertainty analysis and economic value prediction of water environmental capacity based on Copula and Bayesian model: A case study of Yitong River, China.

Water environmental capacity (WEC) is an indicator of environment management. The uncertainty analysis of WEC is more closely aligned with the actual conditions of the water body. It is crucial for accurately formulating pollution total emissions control schemes. However, the current WEC uncertainty analysis method ignored the connection between water quality and discharge, and required a large amount of monitoring data. This study analyzed the uncertainty of the WEC and predicted its economic value based on Copula and Bayesian model for the Yitong River in China. The Copula model was employed to calculate joint probabilities of water quality and discharge. And the posterior distribution of WEC with limited data was obtained by the Bayesian formula. The results showed that the WEC-COD in the Yitong River was 9009.67 t/a, while NH3-N had no residual WEC. Wanjinta Highway Bridge-Kaoshan Town reach had the most serious pollution. In order to make it have WEC, the reduction of COD and NH3-N was 5330.47 t and 3017.87 t. The economic value of WEC-COD was 5.97 × 107 CNY, and the treatment cost was 2.04 × 108 CNY to make NH3-N have residual WEC. The economic value distribution of WEC was extremely uneven, which could be utilized by adjusting the sewage outlet. In addition, since the treated water was discharged into the Sihua Bridge-Wanjinta Highway Bridge reach, the WEC-COD and the economic value were 19,488.51 t/a and 8.24 × 107 CNY. Increasing the flow of rivers could effectively improve WEC and economic value. This study provided an evaluation tool for guiding river water environment management.

On the coordination in diversity between water environmental capacity and regional development in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.

Water environment capacity has drew the attention of policymakers and stakeholders to sustainable development, and its dynamic changes are ultimately impacted by population, capital, and industrial clusters under regional development. Previous research, however, has not been able to completely comprehend it. In this paper, the authors use the Coupling Coordination Degree model and the Geodetector model to study the temporal and spatial evolution of water environment capacity and its driving mechanism based on regional development represented by regional function including urbanization function, ecological function, and agricultural function using the Three Gorges Reservoir area on county scale as a case study from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that (1) compared with 2000, 2005, and 2010, the water environment capacity of the whole reservoir area in 2015 was significantly improved. (2) The urban functions of each district and county are increasing in different years, and the dynamic changes of ecological and agricultural functions are obviously different. (3) The water environment capacity of districts and counties in the head area. There are significant disparities in the relationship between water environment capacity and regional function in various regions. Differences in water environment capacity are largely influenced by ecological function and the interaction driver of the proportion of agricultural function and urban function, which are typically the biggest of all the components. This suggests that regional development is a top priority in order to improve the operability of the water environmental capacity through more regulation, rules, and planning.

New Framework for Dynamic Water Environmental Capacity Estimation Integrating the Hydro-Environmental Model and Load-Duration Curve Method-A Case Study in Data-Scarce Luanhe River Basin.

A better understanding of river capacity for contaminants (i.e., water environmental capacity, WEC) is essential for the reasonable utilization of water resources, providing government's with guidance about sewage discharge management, and allocating investments for pollutant reduction. This paper applied a new framework integrating a modified hydro-environmental model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, and load-duration curve (LDC) method for the dynamic estimation of the NH3-N WEC of the data-scarce Luanhe River basin in China. The impact mechanisms of hydrological and temperature conditions on WEC are discussed. We found that 77% of the WEC was concentrated in 40% hydrological guarantee flow rates. While the increasing flow velocity promoted the pollutant decay rate, it shortened its traveling time in streams, eventually reducing the river WEC. The results suggest that the integrated framework combined the merits of the traditional LDC method and the mechanism model. Thus, the integrated framework dynamically presents the WEC's spatiotemporal distribution under different hydrological regimes with fewer data. It can also be applied in multi-segment rivers to help managers identify hot spots for fragile water environmental regions and periods at the basin scale.

New framework for managing the water environmental capacity integrating the watershed model and stochastic algorithm.

Integrated calculations of pollution load and water environmental capacity (WEC) are essential for effective water quality management. However, few studies have focused on the dynamic WEC and pollution load in a nonpoint source pollution (NPS)-dominant temperate monsoon watershed under changing rainfall conditions. In this study, a new framework based on the watershed model and WEC calculation with stochastic rainfall input (SR-WEC), was proposed to reveal the dynamic WEC and pollution load under changing rainfall conditions. Stochastic rainfall series was generated by a first-order Markov chain and gamma distribution, and further input into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to explore the dynamic response of water quality to rainfall. The framework was applied to the Daning River watershed, Three Georges Reservoir Region, China. The results suggested that compared with the new SR-WEC, the traditional return period method with limited observed rainfall input would result in an underestimation of ideal WEC and NPS pollution load by 23% and 48% for TN and 48% and 51% for TP, respectively. Approximately 46% of the annual TN reduction and 51% of the annual TP reduction were concentrated from April to June in a relatively small area. The regression relationships between rainfall and the ideal WEC, pollution load and remnant WEC obtained by the SR-WEC were superior to those of the traditional method, with R2 values increasing from 0.005-0.797 to 0.718-0.989. Specific threshold (120 mm/month for the study area) was observed for the effect of rainfall on water quality, beyond which the remnant WEC of organic N would change from decreasing to increasing. The new framework proposed identifies the key periods and areas with consideration of uncertainty of rainfall on water quality, and provides basis for NPS pollution management.

Study of uncertainty of satellite and reanalysis precipitation products and their impact on hydrological simulation.

Satellite and reanalysis precipitation products are potential alternatives in hydrological studies, and it is very important to evaluate their accuracy and potential use for reliable simulations. In this study, three precipitation products (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B43 Version 7 (TRMM 3B43), spatial interpolation grid data based on 2472 national meteorological observation stations in China (GRID_0.5), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR)) were evaluated against gauge observations in the Xiangxi River watershed of Hubei Province. The performance results indicated that the results of the three precipitation products were correlated with those of the rain gauges; however, there were differences among the three products. TRMM 3B43 tended to overestimate precipitation with the highest correlation coefficient, while NCEP-CFSR tended to underestimate precipitation with the least satisfactory performance, and the performance of GRID_0.5 ranked between them. However, the annual and monthly mean errors differed, as the errors of most of the results driven by NCEP-CFSR were lowest. The errors varied at different time scales. During years with high precipitation, the results were often underestimated, while the results are often overestimated during years with low precipitation. According to the average monthly results, the GRID_0.5 results were closest to the gauge observations for most months. During the wet season, TRMM 3B43 performed better, while NCEP-CFSR precipitation performed better during the dry season. The errors from precipitation to streamflow, NPS pollution, and water environmental capacity (WEC) driven by the three precipitation products increased gradually, ranging from 10% for precipitation to over 20% for NPS pollution and almost 100% for WEC. The error increase for NCEP-CFSR was lower than that of the other two products. Although the simulation error from precipitation to the WEC results driven by the three precipitation products gradually increased, the degree of overestimation and underestimation became smaller.

Dynamic simulation of river water environmental capacity based on the subsection summation model.

There are noteworthy problems in current strategies to calculate river water environmental capacity (WEC), including the generalization of tributaries and water intakes, which results in inaccurate calculation results of the WEC, and the difficulty in adapting to dynamic changes in demands and hydrological conditions in terms of practical application. To address these flaws, the subsection summation model (SSM) was built for river WEC calculation. The SSM increases the number of control sections according to drain outlets, water intakes, and tributaries and acquires the WEC of the functional area section by section. The Wei River was taken as the study area for verification and application of the SSM. Supported by a comprehensive integration platform, the WEC simulation system of the Wei River was constructed. The results show that the SSM enhances the accuracy of the WEC calculation, and the results are closer to the actual situation. The simulation system could obtain the WEC according to the demands and changes in the hydrological conditions, thus providing technical means for policymakers. PRACTITIONER POINTS: The subsection summation model provides a more accurate water environmental capacity (WEC) calculation method considering tributaries and water intakes avoiding generalization. The simulation system should be established to make the WEC calculation adapt to the demands or changes in the hydrological conditions. The model and system could supply the basis and technical means for decision-making.

Water Environmental Capacity Calculation and Allocation of the Taihu Lake Basin in Jiangsu Province Based on Control Unit.

The water quality target management of the control unit is a convenient and direct technology for water environment management and the development direction of water environment management in China, involving control unit division and water environment capacity calculation. Taking the Taihu Lake Basin in Jiangsu Province as an example, we propose herein the basic principle of the division of a regional control unit in a plain river network and the method of analyzing the rationality of the control unit division. On this basis, the Taihu Lake Basin in Jiangsu Province was divided into 70 control units. To calculate the water environmental capacity in the plain river network area, we established a water environmental capacity calculation framework based on multiple targets of lakes and rivers, and proposed the goal of water quality "double compliance" of the water environmental functional zone and the assessment section. For this study, we calculated the regional water environmental capacity using the mathematical model of the Taihu Lake Basin's water environmental capacity, and the water environmental capacities of the 70 control units were allocated by the weight coefficient method, which established water area and functional division length. The research results described herein were applied to the pollution permit management of the Taihu Lake Basin in Jiangsu Province. It provides important technical support for the establishment of a pollution permit system based on the total capacity to improve environmental quality.

Water Environmental Capacity Calculated Based on Point and Non-Point Source Pollution Emission Intensity under Water Quality Assurance Rates in a Tidal River Network Area.

A mathematical model for simulating hydrodynamics and pollutants migration in a tidal river network was constructed, which takes the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall runoff and non-point pollutants into consideration. Under the design hydrologic conditions of a typical hydrological year, the daily concentration change process for the control section is obtained. Aiming at the uncertainty of hydrology and water quality parameters such as flow direction, flow rate and concentration change in tidal river network area, a statistical analysis method is used to obtain the maximum allowable concentration of pollutants in the control section under the condition of the water quality standard assurance rate of. Then, a formula for calculating the pollutions emission intensity of point and non-point sources is derived. The method was applied to the pollution source control in a typical region like Taihu in China.

Spatial and Seasonal Dynamics of Water Environmental Capacity in Mountainous Rivers of the Southeastern Coast, China.

The south-east littoral is one of the most populous and developed regions in China suffering from serious water pollution problems, and the Xian-Jiang Basin in the mid of this region is among the most polluted watersheds. Critical information is needed but lacking for improved pollution control and water quality assessment, among which water environmental capacity (WEC) is the most important variable but is difficult to calculate. In this study, a one-dimensional water quality model combined with a matrix calculation algorithm was first developed and calibrated with in-situ observations in the Xian-Jiang basin. Then, the model was applied to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of WEC of the entire basin. The results indicated that, in 2015, the total pollutant discharges into the river reached 6719.68 t/yr, 488.12 t/yr, and 128.57 t/yr for COD, NH3-N and TP, respectively. The spatial pattern suggested a strong correlation between these water contaminants and industrial enterprises, residential areas, and land-use types in the basin. Furthermore, it was noticed that there was a significant seasonal pattern in WEC that the dry season pollution is much greater than that in the plum season, while that in the typhoon season appears to be the weakest among all seasons. The WEC differed significantly among the 24 sub-basins during the dry season but varied to a smaller extent in other seasons, suggesting differential complex spatial-temporal dependency of the WEC.

Control of Pollutants in the Trans-Boundary Area of Taihu Basin, Yangtze Delta.

This work focuses on pollution control in the trans-boundary area of Taihu Basin. Considering the unique characteristics of the river network in the study area, a new methodology of pollution control is proposed aiming at improving the water quality in the trans-boundary area and reducing conflicts between up and downstream regions. Based on monitoring data and statistical analysis, important trans-boundary cross sections identified by the regional government were selected as important areas for consideration in developing management objectives; using a 1-D mathematicmodel and an effective weight evaluation model, the trans-boundary effective control scope (TECS) of the study area was identified as the scope for pollutant control; the acceptable pollution load was then estimated using an established model targeting bi-directional flow. The results suggest that the water environmental capacity for chemical oxygen demand (COD), in order to guarantee reaching the target water quality standard in the TECS, is 160,806 t/year, and amounts to 16,098 t/year, 3493 t/year, and 39,768 t/year for ammonia nitrogen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus, respectively. Our study method and results have been incorporated into the local government management project, and have been proven to be useful in designing a pollution control strategy and management policy.

Water Environmental Capacity Analysis of Taihu Lake and Parameter Estimation Based on the Integration of the Inverse Method and Bayesian Modeling.

An integrated approach using the inverse method and Bayesian approach, combined with a lake eutrophication water quality model, was developed for parameter estimation and water environmental capacity (WEC) analysis. The model was used to support load reduction and effective water quality management in the Taihu Lake system in eastern China. Water quality was surveyed yearly from 1987 to 2010. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were selected as water quality model variables. Decay rates of TN and TP were estimated using the proposed approach. WECs of TN and TP in 2011 were determined based on the estimated decay rates. Results showed that the historical loading was beyond the WEC, thus, reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus input is necessary to meet water quality goals. Then WEC and allowable discharge capacity (ADC) in 2015 and 2020 were predicted. The reduction ratios of ADC during these years were also provided. All of these enable decision makers to assess the influence of each loading and visualize potential load reductions under different water quality goals, and then to formulate a reasonable water quality management strategy.

Uncertainty analyses on the calculation of water environmental capacity by an innovative holistic method and its application to the Dongjiang River.

The estimation and allocation of water environmental capacity (WEC) are essential to water quality management and social-economic interests. However, there is inevitable uncertainty in the capacity estimation due to model conceptualization, data collection and parameter calibration. An innovative holistic approach was developed, which took both independence and relevance between parameters into account to analyze the uncertainties in WEC calculation and estimate the margin of safety. The Dongjiang River was taken as the case to demonstrate the method, focusing on the chemical oxygen demand and NH4(+)-N that were the two major water quality problems in the river. The results showed that the proposed holistic approach is very promising and applicable compared to traditional methods of uncertainty analysis.