Updated Estimate of the Number of Extreme Risk Protection Orders Needed to Prevent 1 Suicide.

Importance: Extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs)-also known as red flag, risk warrant, and gun violence restraining orders-authorize law enforcement, family members, and sometimes others to petition a court to remove firearms from and prevent the acquisition of new firearms by a person judged to pose an immediate danger to themselves or others. Previous estimates suggest that 1 suicide is prevented for every 10 ERPOs issued, a number needed to treat that depends critically on the counterfactual estimate of the proportion of suicidal acts by ERPO respondents that would have involved firearms in the absence of ERPOs. Objective: To empirically inform updated estimates of the number of ERPOs needed to prevent 1 suicide. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from California for method-specific suicides by handgun ownership (October 18, 2004, to December 31, 2015). Handgun-owning suicide decedents in California were identified using individual-level registry data about lawful handgun ownership linked to cause-specific mortality for a cohort of more than 25 million adults. The study also used data from Connecticut for method-specific suicides among ERPO respondents who died by suicide, extracted from published data (October 1999 to June 2013). Data analysis was performed in December 2023. Exposure: Handgun ownership. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were the number and distribution of suicidal acts by handgun owners in California, estimated using method-specific suicide mortality data and published case fatality ratios, and the counterfactual number and distribution of suicidal acts and deaths among ERPO respondents in Connecticut had no ERPOs been issued. Results: A total of 1216 handgun owners (mean [SD] age, 50 [18] years; 1019 male [83.8%]) died by suicide during the study period. Among male handgun owners in California, 28% of suicidal acts involved firearms, 54% involved drug poisoning, 9% involved cutting or piercing, 3% involved hanging or suffocation, 2% involved poisoning with solids and/or liquids, and the remaining 4% involved other methods. Assuming this distribution approximates the counterfactual distribution among ERPO respondents in Connecticut in the absence of ERPOs, 1 suicide death was prevented for every 22 ERPOs issued. Conclusions and Relevance: The estimates produced by this cohort study of California handgun owners suggest that ERPOs can play an important role in averting deaths among high-risk individuals.

Do digital technologies reduce racially biased reporting? Evidence from NYPD administrative data.

Recent work has emphasized the disproportionate bias faced by minorities when interacting with law enforcement. However, research on the topic has been hampered by biased sampling in administrative data, namely that records of police interactions with citizens only reflect information on the civilians that police elect to investigate, and not civilians that police observe but do not investigate. In this work, we address a related bias in administrative police data which has received less empirical attention, namely reporting biases around investigations that have taken place. Further, we investigate whether digital monitoring tools help mitigate this reporting bias. To do so, we examine changes in reports of interactions between law enforcement and citizens in the wake of the New York City Police Department's replacement of analog memo books with mobile smartphones. Results from a staggered difference in differences estimation indicate a significant increase in reports of citizen stops once the new smartphones are deployed. Importantly, we observe that the rise is driven by increased reports of "unproductive" stops, stops involving non-White citizens, and stops occurring in areas characterized by a greater concentration of crime and non-White residents. These results reinforce the recent observation that prior work has likely underestimated the extent of racial bias in policing. Further, they highlight that the implementation of digital monitoring tools can mitigate the issue to some extent.

Why do users continue to contribute to darknet Child Sexual Abuse Material forums? Examining social exchange, social capital, and social learning explanations using digital forensic artifacts.

BACKGROUND: The darknet hosts an increasing number of hidden services dedicated to the distribution of child sexual abuse material (CSAM). Given that by contributing CSAM to the forum members subject themselves to criminal prosecution, questions regarding the motivation for members contributing to darknet CSAM forums arise. OBJECTIVE: Building on insights gained from research into clearnet communities, here we examine the extent to which social incentives generated by the online CSAM community may explain members' posting behavior on darknet CSAM forums. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: We analyze digital forensic artifacts on the online behavior of members of a darknet CSAM forum that was shut down by law enforcement agencies in July 2015. METHODS: We apply group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM), social network analysis, and mixed-effect survival models. RESULTS: Applying GBTM three posting trajectories can be distinguished. Social network analyses finds the reply network to be more centralized than predicted by chance. Mixed-effect survival models show positive associations between the length of members' first post and the time since members' first registration on the forum and subsequent posting. Contrarily, the number of replies received appears to mitigate subsequent posting. CONCLUSIONS: Findings show posting activity on the forum to be concentrated in a minority of forum members who show posting trajectories that are both frequent and persistent. Results further suggest persistence in posting is motivated by social identity and, to a lesser extent, differential association processes.

Cognitive workload classification of law enforcement officers using physiological responses.

Motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) are a leading cause of death for law enforcement officers (LEOs) in the U.S. LEOs and more specifically novice LEOs (nLEOs) are susceptible to high cognitive workload while driving which can lead to fatal MVCs. The objective of this study was to develop a machine learning algorithm (MLA) that can estimate cognitive workload of LEOs while performing secondary tasks in a patrol vehicle. A ride-along study was conducted with 24 nLEOs. Participants performed their normal patrol operations while their physiological responses such as heartrate, eye movement, and galvanic skin response were recorded using unobtrusive devices. Findings suggested that the random forest algorithm could predict cognitive workload with relatively high accuracy (>70%) given that it was entirely reliant on physiological signals. The developed MLA can be used to develop adaptive in-vehicle technology based on real-time estimation of cognitive workload, which can reduce the risk of MVCs in police operations.

The effectiveness of regulations preventing alcohol-related road traffic crashes and fatalities in the European Union countries.

INTRODUCTION: This article addresses the impact of policy measures on the number of alcohol-related crashes and fatalities in European Union countries. In particular, it assesses (1) whether mild or severe penalty measures should be used to reduce the number of crashes and fatalities caused by alcohol; and (2) whether alcoholic beverages should be treated differently or proportionally to their alcohol content. METHODS: This study analyzed the number of alcohol-related crashes and fatalities in 24 European Union countries between 2002 and 2014. The methodology involved fixed-effects panel models, models with instrumental variables, the Hausman-Taylor model, and seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR). SUR improve the results of coefficient estimates when the data are not complete. RESULTS: The results of the SUR indicated that vehicle impoundment, community service, and alcolocks correlate with lower crashes, while detention correlates with lower fatalities. Furthermore, a higher alcohol content in beverages is positively associated with fatalities and negatively associated with the number of crashes. CONCLUSIONS: Mild and harsh measures for preventing alcohol-related crashes and fatalities differ in effectiveness; therefore, they should be used simultaneously. Blood alcohol concentration limits were found to be an ineffective tool for preventing crashes and fatalities under the influence of alcohol. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The regulatory restrictions on different types of alcohol should be stricter for hard alcohol (especially spirits) and lower for low-alcohol beverages, such as beer, if fewer fatalities are preferred to fewer crashes.

Determining the Changes in Law Enforcement Recruit Aerobic Fitness Using the 2.4-km Run and 20-m Multistage Fitness Test. Does the Type of Test Matter?

ABSTRACT: Campbell, P, Maupin, D, Lockie, RG, Dawes, JJ, Simas, V, Canetti, E, Schram, B, and Orr, R. Determining the changes in law enforcement recruit aerobic fitness using the 2.4-km run and 20-m multistage fitness test. Does the type of test matter? J Strength Cond Res 38(6): 1111-1117, 2024-Aerobic fitness is linked with academy graduation, employment, and the long-term health of law enforcement officers and is often used as a training outcome. However, different tests can be used, and aerobic improvements may differ according to the test used. The aim of this study was to determine whether recruits improved to a greater extent in 1 aerobic test compared with the other. Retrospective data from 5 law enforcement recruit cohorts (males = 741; females = 353) who underwent 18 weeks of academy training were analyzed. Initial 20-m multistage fitness test (20MSFT) and 2.4-km run assessments were completed during weeks 4 and 5 of training, with final testing completed during weeks 16 and 17, respectively. A repeated-measures analysis of variance ( p < 0.05) with a Bonferroni post hoc analysis determined changes in aerobic fitness in the 20MSFT and 2.4-km run between male and female recruits. A mean difference of 9.27 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 14.8-10.9; d = 0.63; p < 0.001) shuttle increase in 20MSFT performance and 20.1 (95% CI 16.0-24.2; d = 0.49; p < 0.001) second improvement in 2.4-km run time were demonstrated when averaged across sex, yielding a larger performance improvement for the 20MSFT compared with the 2.4-km run. Conversely, there was a smaller magnitude of change in aerobic fitness between male recruits and female recruits for the 20MSFT ( d = 0.47) compared with the 2.4-km run ( d = 0.50). The findings indicate that current academy training results in improvements to aerobic fitness and to a greater magnitude in the 20MSFT compared with the 2.4-km run. These results may affect policy considerations for law enforcement agencies regarding aerobic test selection.

Mixed methods evaluation of a jail diversion program: Impact on arrests and functioning.

This mixed methods study had two aims: (1) to examine the effectiveness of a jail diversion program in reducing recidivism and promoting educational and employment outcomes; and (2) to qualitatively explore mechanisms through which the program was effective. Participants were 17 individuals arrested for drug offenses who participated in an intensive, law enforcement-based jail diversion program, and 17 individuals in a comparison group. Arrests were extracted from police records, and education and employment were extracted from program data. Four intervention participants completed qualitative interviews. Arrest rates in the intervention group decreased significantly postintervention, and arrest rates in the intervention group were numerically lower than those in the comparison group. Participants experienced significant increases in employment and driver's license status. Participants also identified mechanisms through which the program was effective. This jail diversion program shows promise in reducing recidivism and promoting adaptive functioning. Jail diversion programs that include mentorship, peer support, and removal of barriers to success may be particularly effective.

Triad influence on the detection of crime in Hong Kong.

We use bootstrap data envelopment analysis, adjusting for endogeneity, to examine police efficiency in detecting crime in Hong Kong. We address the following: (i) is there a correlation between the detection of crime and triad influence? (ii) does the level of triad influence affect the efficiency in translating inputs (police strength) into outputs (crime detection)? and (iii) how can the allocation of policing resources be adjusted to improve crime detection? We find that nighty-eight percent of Hong Kong police districts in our sample were found to be inefficient in the detection of crime. Variation was found across districts regarding the detection of violent, property and other crimes. Most inefficiencies and potential improvements in the detection of crime were found in the categories violent and other crimes. We demonstrate how less efficient police districts can modify police resourcing decisions to better detect certain crime types while maintaining current levels of resourcing. Finally, we highlight how the method we outline improves efficiency estimation by adjusting for endogeneity and measuring the conditional efficiency of each district (i.e. the efficiency of crime detection taking the instrumental variables (e.g. influence of triads) into consideration). The use of frontier models to assist in evaluating policing performance can lead to improved efficiency, transparency, and accountability in law enforcement, ultimately resulting in better public safety outcomes and publicly funded resource allocation.

Knowledge and Perspectives of Developmental Language Disorders: The Pilot Development of a Survey of Professionals Working in Law Enforcement.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to pilot test a survey of professionals within the justice system about their knowledge and perceptions of developmental language disorders (DLDs) and to gather initial data supporting their knowledge and perceptions. METHOD: One hundred thirty-six adults in Texas with law enforcement jobs, primarily police officers, participated in this study. Participants completed a survey consisting of 78 questions about their background, experiences with DLD, and beliefs about communication. Additionally, 42 adults who did not work in law enforcement completed the survey twice to establish the initial measures of survey reliability. RESULTS: This survey demonstrated sufficient test-retest reliability with adults not in law enforcement, and results indicated the emergence of two subscales within the survey. Law enforcement professionals appeared to have limited knowledge of DLD, and many linked language-related behaviors with credibility. A majority did agree with giving accommodations to individuals who struggle with language and reported interest in receiving training to recognize and accommodate DLD. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study demonstrates a need for collaboration between speech-language pathologists and law enforcement professionals and provides data for a survey that could be used across professional groups in the justice system to measure knowledge and perspectives of DLDs. This work represents an initial step in an iterative process of survey development for law enforcement professionals. SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL: https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.25033718.

A comparative analysis of accident modification functions for traffic law enforcement.

Traffic law enforcement is a road safety measure whose effects on accidents or injuries is best described by means of a function rather than a point estimate. An informative function should comprise both increases and decreases in enforcement. Currently available accident modification functions cannot serve this need. A fruitful approach to developing accident modification functions covering both increases and decreases in enforcement is differences-in-differences estimates based on multivariate accident prediction models. The paper explains how to develop such estimates and illustrates them. The interpretation of the results of empirical studies can be informed by a game-theoretic model of the effects of enforcement, previously published in Accident Analysis and Prevention (Bjørnskau and Elvik 1992, 507-520).

Planning traffic surveillance in Spain: How to optimize the management of police resources to reduce road fatalities.

Although traffic police enforcement is widely recognized as a key action in the road safety field, it can be a costly policy to implement. In addition, governments often impose budget constraints that can limit the resources available for activities such as law enforcement and surveillance. To evaluate the impact of human traffic control resources planning on traffic fatalities on Spanish NUTS-3 regions interurban roads, this paper uses an econometric model to investigate the performance of police enforcement intensity by focusing on two crucial traffic law infractions (i.e., speeding and drunk driving). After controlling for a range of economic, demographic, climate, and risk exposure variables, results highlight the relevance of visible, human, and in-person traffic law enforcement through regular vehicle patrols for reducing traffic crashes, with a non-significant effect of automatic enforcement. Our findings have important implications for traffic police resource management regarding the effective maintenance of patrol cars and plans to digitalize and automatize police administrative tasks and procedures.

Public/family concerns for providing DNA in missing persons cases: Paper 2: The main concerns raised and implications for policing policy.

Identification of unidentified human remains, and long-term missing persons (LTMP) is imperative, allowing for missing persons to be reunited with their families, which could provide closure to families experiencing ongoing ambiguity surrounding the situation. However, identification remains problematic for several reasons, including the absence of DNA provision in the investigation. The research reported here is the second in a two-part series exploring public/family support for providing DNA in LTMP cases. In the first study, quantitative results showed that participants had concerns when asked if they thought there would be implications for a person providing DNA to police in LTMP cases. The aim of this second study was to explore further using qualitative methods the nuances and themes underpinning concerns for providing DNA in LTMP cases. Participants described their concerns about providing DNA in four hypothetical LTMP case scenarios (a child, an adult with dementia, a runaway 19-year-old adolescent, and an estranged adult). Through thematic content analysis, ten themes were identified. Nine themes run across all four LTMP case scenarios. The tenth theme was only observed in two scenarios; cases involving adolescents with a history of runaway, and in cases involving adults estranged from their family. Results showed public concerns differed according to LTMP case circumstances. Key findings point to public education about how DNA is used in LTMP investigations, the applicable legislation relating to police use of DNA in investigations and increasing public awareness around the benefits of DNA use in LTMP investigations. Potentional policy options are discussed that could guide the future development of nuanced police practice in different types of LTMP cases.

Camera footage and identification testimony undermine the availability of exculpatory alibi evidence.

The present field experiment investigated how alibi witnesses react when confronted with camera footage or identification testimony that incriminates an innocent suspect. Under the pretext of a problem-solving study, pairs of participants (N = 109) and confederates worked on an individual task with a dividing wall obstructing their view of each other. When the mobile phone of the experimenter was missing from an adjacent room at the end of the session, all participants confirmed that the confederate had not left the room. After several days, participants returned to the lab for a second session. They were asked to confirm their corroboration, orally and in writing, after learning that the confederate either had been identified from a photograph or was present on camera footage. A control group received no evidence. In this second session, written (but not oral) alibi corroboration was weaker in the incriminating evidence conditions (47%) than the no-evidence condition (81%), as hypothesized. Unexpectedly, corroboration was equally strong in the camera and identification evidence conditions. As expected, alibi corroboration was stronger in session 1 than in session 2 for both camera (89% and 31-46%) and identification evidence conditions (86% and 31-49%). The current findings provide first evidence that camera footage and eyewitness identification testimony can bear on the availability of exculpatory alibi evidence in court and emphasize the need to document incidents of evidence contamination.

Non-fatal injuries among police officers during use-of-force encounters.

BACKGROUND: Occupational injuries are common in police work due to routine exposure to conflict, violence, accidents, and other hazards. However, little is known about the factors associated with non-fatal job-related injuries among police officers. AIMS: To study the factors associated with non-fatal job-related injuries among Tucson, AZ, police officers during encounters involving the use of force. METHODS: Data were analysed on all use-of-force cases involving Tucson police officers from January 2018 through June 2020. Logistic regression models were used to assess the factors that influence the likelihood of officer injuries. RESULTS: Overall, about 11% of officers involved in a use-of-force encounter were injured. Multivariate analyses reveal that defensive physical resistance by the suspect increases injury risk among officers. When suspects assault officers or others during the encounter, the risk of officer injury also increases significantly. Certain types of force used by police, such as hands-on tactics and TASER use are also associated with increased risk of injury among officers. The age and race of the suspect are not associated with the likelihood of injury among officers. CONCLUSIONS: Certain suspect behaviours and use-of-force modalities increase the risk of injury among officers. Understanding these risk factors can help employers put in place appropriate measures to reduce the risk of occupational injuries among police officers.

Police Decisions in a Rape Scenario: The Effect of Trauma Response, Forensic Evidence, Stranger-Perpetrators, and Rape Mythology.

This study examined the direct effect of "classic rape" characteristics, and how they were moderated by rape myth endorsement, on the likelihood of arrest, perceived district attorney charge acceptance, and perceived suspect conviction using a formal rape disclosure among a sample of 468 police participants from a sizeable municipal law enforcement agency in one of the fifth largest and most diverse U.S. cities. A randomly assigned, between-subjects factorial vignette design was employed. Manipulations included stereotypical trauma response, forensic medical exam, and perpetrator type. Path modeling revealed statistically significant relations between stereotypical trauma response, forensic medical exam, perpetrator type, and the three outcome variables. Rape myth endorsement moderated the effect of manipulations on the dependent variables. Implications for research and policy are discussed.

Victim Notification Protocols for Untested Sexual Assault Kits: Survivors' and Advocates' Perspectives on Law Enforcement-Led Outreach Methods.

Current estimates suggest there are 300,000-400,000 untested sexual assault kits (SAKs) in police department storage facilities throughout the United States. As these kits are being discovered and then submitted for forensic DNA testing, legal system personnel may recontact victims. These "victim notifications" involve informing survivors their kits were previously untested, sharing the results of new DNA testing, and asking for their engagement in reinvestigating and prosecuting the case. Typically, victim notifications are conducted by police, and survivors are connected with victim advocates soon thereafter. In this study, we interviewed survivors about their experiences of being notified by the police. We also interviewed about their work supporting survivors. Both survivors and advocates expressed strong concerns about police conducting notifications without an advocate present.

Examining enforcement coverage for speeding and red-light offenses across various populations and driver characteristics.

Over the years empirical evidence has shown that traffic enforcement reduces traffic violations, crashes, and casualties. However, less attention has been paid to enforcement coverage across different populations and driver characteristics. The current study develops and explores a method for estimating police enforcement coverage, by comparing the share of drivers across several characteristics who received tickets from automatic speed and red-light cameras - as an objective estimate of offenses committed - to the share of drivers who received tickets through manual police enforcement. Using data from all speeding and red-light tickets issued to Israelis over a period of one and a half years, we found under-enforcement by police officers for female drivers, two-wheeled vehicle drivers (for speeding), and drivers with previous tickets. We found over-enforcement for younger drivers, truck drivers, and two-wheeled vehicle drivers (for red-light offenses). The findings suggest that the method developed in the research is able to identify groups of drivers who are over- or under-enforced. Police authorities can use this information to create evidence-based enforcement policies.

Reducing Underage Drinking Through Visible Home Visits by Law Enforcement: An Efficacy Case Study Over 29 Months.

This paper describes the development and impact of an underage drinking reduction program designed and implemented by a South Carolina county sheriff's office with assistance from the county coalition. In December 2017, high school surveys identified family and friends as the alcohol source 82.2% of the time. In Summer 2018, sheriff deputies began visiting with almost all high school seniors, i.e., 1,352 high school senior visits.Deputies reminded parents to not provide alcohol to anyone under 21 years old. School surveys were conducted pre-program (December 2017), during (April 2018 and September 2018) and post-program (April 2020). Comparing the pre-effort results with post surveys found a 22.8% decline in 30-day drinking (p=.01) and a 23.5% decrease in binge drinking (p=.07). As described by Holder et al., the results provide the foundation for replication under controlled research conditions.

"2.5 g, I could do that before noon": a qualitative study on people who use drugs' perspectives on the impacts of British Columbia's decriminalization of illegal drugs threshold limit.

BACKGROUND: In May 2022, Health Canada approved a three-year exemption from the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act decriminalizing possession of certain illegal substances for personal use among adults in the province of British Columbia. The exemption explicitly includes a cumulative threshold of 2.5 g of opioids, cocaine, methamphetamine, and MDMA. Threshold quantities are commonly included in decriminalization policies and justified within law enforcement systems to delineate personal use among people who use drugs versus drug dealers who are carrying for trafficking purposes. Understanding the impact of the 2.5g threshold can help define the extent to which people who use drugs will be decriminalized. METHODS: From June-October 2022, 45 people who use drugs from British Columbia were interviewed to gain an understanding of their perceptions on decriminalization, particularly on the proposed threshold of 2.5 g. We conduced descriptive thematic analyses to synthesize common interview responses. RESULTS: Results are displayed under two categories: 1) Implications for substance use profiles and purchasing patterns, including implications on the cumulative nature of the threshold and impacts on bulk purchasing, and 2) Implications of police enforcement, including distrust of police use of discretion, potential for net widening and jurisdictional discrepancies in enforcing the threshold. Results illustrate the need for the decriminalization policy to consider diversity in consumption patterns and frequency of use among people who use drugs, the inclination to purchase larger quantities of substances for reduced costs and to guarantee a safe and available supply, and the role police will play in delineating between possession for personal use or trafficking purposes. CONCLUSIONS: The findings underscore the importance of monitoring the impact of the threshold on people who use drugs and whether it is countering the goals of the policy. Consultations with people who use drugs can help policymakers understand the challenges they may face when trying to abide by this threshold.

Escalated police stops of Black men are linguistically and psychologically distinct in their earliest moments.

Across the United States, police chiefs, city officials, and community leaders alike have highlighted the need to de-escalate police encounters with the public. This concern about escalation extends from encounters involving use of force to routine car stops, where Black drivers are disproportionately pulled over. Yet, despite the calls for action, we know little about the trajectory of police stops or how escalation unfolds. In study 1, we use methods from computational linguistics to analyze police body-worn camera footage from 577 stops of Black drivers. We find that stops with escalated outcomes (those ending in arrest, handcuffing, or a search) diverge from stops without these outcomes in their earliest moments-even in the first 45 words spoken by the officer. In stops that result in escalation, officers are more likely to issue commands as their opening words to the driver and less likely to tell drivers the reason why they are being stopped. In study 2, we expose Black males to audio clips of the same stops and find differences in how escalated stops are perceived: Participants report more negative emotion, appraise officers more negatively, worry about force being used, and predict worse outcomes after hearing only the officer's initial words in escalated versus non-escalated stops. Our findings show that car stops that end in escalated outcomes sometimes begin in an escalated fashion, with adverse effects for Black male drivers and, in turn, police-community relations.