Three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy for locally advanced hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein tumour thrombosis: evaluating effectiveness of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score compared with the Child-Pugh classification.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the effectiveness of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score compared with the Child-Pugh classification in patients who received three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D CRT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with portal vein tumour thrombosis (PVTT) by analyzing toxicity and prognostic factors. METHODS: 56 consecutive patients who had locally advanced HCC with PVTT treated by 3D CRT between September 2007 and April 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. RESULTS: The median survival time of all patients was 6.4 months. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis identified MELD score = 7.5 [area under the curve (AUC) 0.81] and Child-Pugh score = 6.5 (AUC 0.86) as the best cut-off values for predicting the incidence of complications over Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grade 2. There was no significant difference in the discrimination power between the MELD score and the Child-Pugh score on comparison of the two ROC curves (p = 0.17). On multivariate analysis, age, MELD score and radiotherapy dose were significant prognostic factors for overall survival (p = 0.021, 0.038 and 0.006, respectively). In contrast, the Child-Pugh classification, tumour response, PVTT response and the number of prior interventional radiologic treatments were not significant on multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: This study showed that the best MELD score cut-off value is 7.5 and that the MELD score is a better prognostic factor than the Child-Pugh classification in 3D CRT for HCC with PVTT. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: The MELD score is useful for predicting the risk of severe toxicities and the prognosis of patients treated with 3D CRT for PVTT.

A new model to estimate prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after Yttrium-90 radioembolization.

AIMS: The current prognostic model to estimate the survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with transarterial hepatic selective internal radiotherapy (SIRT) is not fully characterized. The aim of this study was to establish a new scoring model including assessment of both tumor responses and therapy-induced systemic changes in HCC patients to predict survival at an early time point post-SIRT. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Between 2008 and 2012, 149 HCC patients treated with SIRT were included into this study. CT images and biomarkers in blood tested at one month post-SIRT were analyzed and correlated with clinical outcome. Tumor responses were assessed by RECIST 1.1, mRECIST, and Choi criteria. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate survival curves. Cox regression was used in uni- and multivariable survival analyses and in the establishment of a prognostic model. RESULTS: A multivariate proportional hazards model was created based on the tumor response, the number of tumor nodules, the score of the model for end stage liver disease (MELD), and the serum C-reactive protein levels which were independent predictors of survival in HCC patients at one month post-SIRT. This prognostic model accurately differentiated the outcome of patients with different risk scores in this cohort (P<0.001). The model also had the ability to assign a predicted survival probability for individual patients. CONCLUSIONS: A new model to predict survival of HCC patients mainly based on tumor responses and therapy-induced systemic changes provides reliable prognosis and accurately discriminates the survival at an early time point after SIRT in these patients.