A discrete-time model with vaccination for a measles epidemic.
Math Biosci
; 105(1): 111-31, 1991 Jun.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-1806092
ABSTRACT
A discrete-time, age-independent SIR-type epidemic model is formulated and analyzed. The effects of vaccination are also included in the model. Three mathematically important properties are verified for the model solutions are nonnegative, the population size is time-invariant, and the epidemic concludes with all individuals either remaining susceptible or becoming immune (a property typical of SIR models). The model is applied to a measles epidemic on a university campus. The simulated results are in good agreement with the actual data if it is assumed that the population mixes nonhomogeneously. The results of the simulations indicate that a rate of immunity greater than 98% may be required to prevent an epidemic in a university population. The model has applications to other contagious diseases of SIR type. Furthermore, the simulated results of the model can easily be compared to data, and the effects of a vaccination program can be examined.
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Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Brotes de Enfermedades
/
Modelos Estadísticos
/
Inmunización
/
Sarampión
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Math Biosci
Año:
1991
Tipo del documento:
Article