The risk factors for unexplained antepartum stillbirths in Scotland, 1994 to 2003.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To determine the factors contributing to unexplained antepartum stillbirth in Scotland. STUDY DESIGN: A 10-year birth database in Scotland was used to compare the unexplained antepartum stillbirth with other birth outcomes. The sample unit was a pregnant mother with a gestational age of 20 weeks and above and with a fetal birth weight of 200 g and above. RESULT: Maternal age of 35 years and above, lower deprivation category, inaccessible area of residence, maternal smoking, maternal height of <160 cm and gestational age of above 39 weeks were significantly associated with unexplained antepartum stillbirth. In multivariable analysis only maternal age (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.8, confidence interval (CI) 1.1 to 3.0, P=0.02), smoking during pregnancy (adjusted OR 2.0, CI 1.1 to 3.5, P=0.02), and maternal height (adjusted OR 1.4, CI 1.1 to 1.8, P=0.01), remain significant. Screening of pregnancies based on these three risk factors had 4.2% sensitivity and 99.4% specificity. The prevalence of stillbirth for this population was 0.2%. A positive predictive value of only 1.2% implies that only 1 in 83 women with these three risk factors will have antepartum stillbirth. The remaining 82 will suffer needless anxiety and potentially diagnostic procedures. CONCLUSION: Advanced maternal age, maternal smoking, and shorter maternal height were associated risk for unexplained antepartum stillbirth but screening based on these factors would be of limited value.