Liver resection for colorectal metastases: results and prognostic factors with 10-year follow-up.

PURPOSE: Actual 5-year survival rates after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CLM) are 25-45%, whereas 10-year survival rates are extrapolated from survival curves. Few studies have reported long-term survivors with 10 years of actual follow-up. Therefore, no recurrences occurring after 10-plus years have been reported. The aim of our study was to analyze actual 10-year survival rates and prognostic factors. METHODS: Clinical data of patients with CLM who had undergone first liver resection in our center between January 1990 and December 2000 were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS: Eighty-nine patients of mean age 64 years were studied. Three patients were excluded from the study: one because of postoperative death, and two from being lost to follow-up. All other subjects had a potential 10-year follow-up. Only 33% patients received perioperative chemotherapy. The actual 10-year overall and disease-free survival rate were 22 and 19%, respectively. Poor prognostic factors were disease-free interval less than 1 year, wedge liver resection, clinical risk score>2, segment 1 CLM location, and peritumoral lymphangitis. Good prognostic factors were tumors having mucinous components in primary tumor and CLM located in the right lobe. CONCLUSIONS: With actual long-term follow-up for 10 years, disease-free survival rate is 19% and mainly depends on surgical management. Recurrence continues to occur more than 5 years after liver resection for CLM; cure cannot be assumed at this time. Clinical risk score is a good predictor of cure and should be taken into account when choosing perioperative treatment.