The current and future burden of late-onset dementia in the United Kingdom: Estimates and interventions.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: We estimate the burden of late-onset dementia in the United Kingdom through to 2025 and assess the impact of potential interventions. METHODS: We compute disability adjusted life years (DALYs) through to 2025 and consider three interventions, all assumed launched in 2018; (1) an optimistic limiting case of a 100% preventive intervention with immediate uptake of 100% of the population at risk; (2) an intervention which delays onset by 5 years, linear uptake to 50% after 5 years; (3) as (2) but uptake 75% after 5 years. RESULTS: By 2025, the DALY burden will have increased by 42% from the Global Disease Burden 2010 estimate. Intervention results: (1) a 9% decrease by 2025; (2) a 33% increase; and (3) a 28% increase. DISCUSSION: At current prevalence rates, the ability of an intervention to offset the projected increase in DALY burden of dementia in the United Kingdom by 2025 appears low.