Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: A scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region.
Sci Total Environ
; 695: 133874, 2019 Dec 10.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31756872
ABSTRACT
This paper describes the relationship between the landscape and the socio-economic and political characteristics of a highly biodiverse Andean region of Colombia, which is now recovering from the socio-ecological impact of protracted armed conflict. We quantify the current spatial relationship between nature and society, and we include legacy effects from the most recent period of armed conflict and its consequences of forced displacement and land use disruption. The procedure followed provides a quantitative model where a minimum number of socio-economic and political variables explain the variation in land cover. The results represent the relationship between land use intensity and the main socio-economic and political indicators, highlighting a close interaction between landscape configuration, socio-economic structure of local populations, coercive conservation and armed conflict. A simulated post-conflict landscape shows a clear transition gradient towards agrarian expansion and intensification, also in systems where naturalness is a relevant feature. The peace process in Colombia offers opportunities for new schemes of land planning and management, including natural resource governance and policy reforms to improve welfare and resilience of local communities. The results allow to define options for future planning given the possible consequences of socio-political legacy effects yet to fully play out across Colombia.
Texto completo:
1
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
País/Región como asunto:
America do sul
/
Colombia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Total Environ
Año:
2019
Tipo del documento:
Article