Integrating Social Dynamics Into Modeling Cigarette and E-Cigarette Use.
Health Educ Behav
; 47(2): 191-201, 2020 04.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32090652
ABSTRACT
Background. The use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarette) offers potential to facilitate cigarette smoking cessation, yet potentially increases risk of cigarette smoking initiation. This relationship has been primarily modeled in mathematical ways that often do not represent real-world complexities, which could inform decisions regarding local prevention programs or policies. Aims. To develop a model of cigarette and e-cigarette use that combines current research on tobacco use and incorporates real-world geographic and demographic data. Method. We used a platform for developing agent-based models with demographic information representative of the population in Pennsylvania. We developed three models of cigarette and e-cigarette use. The primary outcome for each was the total number of users for cigarette, e-cigarette, and total nicotine. The first model applied current cigarette and e-cigarette data, the second tested the effect of implementing a program of e-cigarette education and policies, and the third considered a social contagion factor, where local schools functioned as a transmission vector. Results. The baseline and social contagion models found an overall decline in cigarette use but an increase in e-cigarette and total nicotine use. The education/policies model had declines in all categories. Sensitivity analysis suggested the importance of nuanced e-cigarette/cigarette interactions when modeling tobacco use. Discussion. Public health campaigns that focus on reducing youth e-cigarette usage can have a large effect. Social contagion should be strongly considered when studying e-cigarette spread. Conclusion. Targeted public health campaigns focused on reducing school prevalence of e-cigarette use may be particularly valuable.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Productos de Tabaco
/
Sistemas Electrónicos de Liberación de Nicotina
/
Vapeo
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Adolescent
/
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Health Educ Behav
Asunto de la revista:
CIENCIAS DO COMPORTAMENTO
/
EDUCACAO
/
SAUDE PUBLICA
Año:
2020
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos