Impact of El Niño on the dynamics of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in a municipality in the western Amazon.

ABSTRACT

Vector-borne diseases are some of the leading public health problems in the tropics, and their association with climatic anomalies is well known. The current study aimed to evaluate the trend of American cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in the municipality of Manaus, Amazonas-Brazil, and its relationship with climatic extremes (ENSO). The study was carried out using a series of secondary data from notifications on the occurrence of several American cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in the municipality of Manaus between 1990 and 2017 obtained through the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação. Data regarding temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation for this municipality were derived from the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) websites. Coherence and wavelet phase analysis was conducted to measure the degree of relationship of the occurrence of the cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that during La Niña events, an increase in American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) cases is anticipated after the increase in rainfall from November, resulting in a more significant number of cases in January, February, and March. It was observed that in the municipality of Manaus, the dynamics of ACL cases are directly influenced by ENSO events that affect environmental variables such as precipitation, temperature, and humidity. Therefore, climatic variations consequently change the ACL incidence dynamics, leading to subsequent increases or decreases in the incidence of ACL cases in the area.