Estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C: A modelling study in Yichang City, China.
J Viral Hepat
; 28(10): 1464-1473, 2021 10.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34314082
ABSTRACT
Yichang is a city in central China in the Hubei Province. This study aimed to estimate the dynamics of the transmissibility of hepatitis C using a mathematical model and predict the transmissibility of hepatitis C in 2030. Data of hepatitis C cases from 13 counties or districts (cities) in Yichang from 2008 to 2016 were collected. A susceptible-infectious-chronic-recovered (SICR) model was developed to fit the data. The transmissibility of hepatitis C at the counties or districts was calculated based on new infections (including infected or chronically infected cases) reported monthly in the city caused by one infectious individual (MNI). The trend of the MNI was fitted and predicted using 11 models, with the coefficient of determination (R2 ) was being used to test the goodness of fit of these models. A total of 3065 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Yichang from 2008 to 2016. The median MNI of Yichang was 0.0768. According to the fitting results and analysis, the trend of transmissibility of hepatitis C in Yichang City conforms with the logarithmic (R2 = 0.918, p < 0.001)MNI = 0.265-0.108 log(t) and exponential (R2 = 0.939, p < 0.001) MNI = 0.344e(-0.278t) models. Hence, the transmission of hepatitis C virus at the county level has a downward trend. In conclusion, the transmissibility of hepatitis C in Yichang has a downward trend. With the current preventive and control measures in place, the spread of hepatitis C can be controlled.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Hepatitis C
/
Hepacivirus
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Viral Hepat
Asunto de la revista:
GASTROENTEROLOGIA
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
China