Impact of university re-opening on total community COVID-19 burden.
PLoS One
; 16(8): e0255782, 2021.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34383796
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
University students have higher average number of contacts than the general population. Students returning to university campuses may exacerbate COVID-19 dynamics in the surrounding community.METHODS:
We developed a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 in a mid-sized city currently experiencing a low infection rate. We evaluated the impact of 20,000 university students arriving on September 1 in terms of cumulative COVID-19 infections, time to peak infections, and the timing and peak level of critical care occupancy. We also considered how these impacts might be mitigated through screening interventions targeted to students.RESULTS:
If arriving students reduce their contacts by 40% compared to pre-COVID levels, the total number of infections in the community increases by 115% (from 3,515 to 7,551), with 70% of the incremental infections occurring in the general population, and an incremental 19 COVID-19 deaths. Screening students every 5 days reduces the number of infections attributable to the student population by 42% and the total COVID-19 deaths by 8. One-time mass screening of students prevents fewer infections than 5-day screening, but is more efficient, requiring 196 tests needed to avert one infection instead of 237.INTERPRETATION:
University students are highly inter-connected with the surrounding off-campus community. Screening targeted at this population provides significant public health benefits to the community through averted infections, critical care admissions, and COVID-19 deaths.
Texto completo:
1
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Universidades
/
COVID-19
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudio:
Screening_studies
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS One
Asunto de la revista:
CIENCIA
/
MEDICINA
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Canadá