Modeling Respiratory Syncytial Virus Adult Vaccination in the United States With a Dynamic Transmission Model.
Clin Infect Dis
; 77(3): 480-489, 2023 08 14.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36949605
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is shown to cause substantial morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality in infants and older adults. Population-level modeling of RSV allows to estimate the full burden of disease and the potential epidemiological impact of novel prophylactics.METHODS:
We modeled the RSV epidemiology in the United States across all ages using a deterministic compartmental transmission model. Population-level symptomatic RSV acute respiratory tract infection (ARI) cases were projected across different natural history scenarios with and without vaccination of adults aged ≥60 years. The impact of vaccine efficacy against ARIs, infectiousness and vaccine coverage on ARI incidence were assessed. The impact on medical attendance, hospitalization, complications, death, and other outcomes was also derived.RESULTS:
Without a vaccine, we project 17.5-22.6 million symptomatic RSV ARI cases annually in adults aged ≥18 years in the US, with 3.6-4.8 million/year occurring in adults aged ≥60 years. Modeling indicates that up to 2.0 million symptomatic RSV-ARI cases could be prevented annually in ≥60-year-olds with a hypothetical vaccine (70% vaccine efficacy against symptomatic ARI and 60% vaccine coverage) and that up to 0.69 million/year could be prevented in the nonvaccinated population, assuming 50% vaccine impact on infectiousness.CONCLUSIONS:
The model provides estimated burden of RSV in the US across all age groups, with substantial burden projected specifically in older adults. Vaccination of adults aged ≥60 years could significantly reduce the burden of disease in this population, with additional indirect effect in adults aged <60 years due to reduced transmissibility.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio
/
Virus Sincitial Respiratorio Humano
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Infecciones por Virus Sincitial Respiratorio
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Vacunas contra Virus Sincitial Respiratorio
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Adolescent
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Adult
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Aged
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Humans
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Middle aged
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Clin Infect Dis
Asunto de la revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Bélgica