Point-of-care testing for adult out-of-hospital cardiac arrest resuscitated at the ED to predict ROSC: Development and external validation of POC-ED-ROSC model.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE Most prediction models, like return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) after cardiac arrest (RACA) or Utstein-based (UB)-ROSC score, were developed for prehospital settings to predict the probability of ROSC in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). A prediction model has been lacking for the probability of ROSC in patients with OHCA at emergency departments (EDs). OBJECTIVE: In the present study, a point-of-care (POC) testing-based model, POC-ED-ROSC, was developed and validated for predicting ROSC of OHCA at EDs. DESIGN, SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospectively collected data for adult OHCA patients between 2015 and 2020 were analysed. POC blood gas analysis obtained within 5 min of ED arrival was used. OUTCOMES MEASURE AND ANALYSIS: The primary outcome was ROSC. In the derivation cohort, multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the POC-ED-ROSC model. In the temporally split validation cohort, the discriminative performance of the POC-ED-ROSC model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and compared with RACA or UB-ROSC score using DeLong test. MAIN RESULTS: The study included 606 and 270 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the total cohort, 471 patients achieved ROSC. Age, initial cardiac rhythm at ED, pre-hospital resuscitation duration, and POC testing-measured blood levels of lactate, potassium and glucose were significant predictors included in the POC-ED-ROSC model. The model was validated with fair discriminative performance (AUC 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69-0.81) with no significant differences from RACA (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.62-0.74) or UB-ROSC score (AUC 0.74, 95% CI 0.68-0.79). CONCLUSION: Using only six easily accessible variables, the POC-ED-ROSC model can predict ROSC for OHCA resuscitated at ED with fair accuracy.