Role of the Clinical Features and MRI Parameters on Ki-67 Expression in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients: Development of a Predictive Nomogram.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To develop a nomogram using clinical features and the MRI parameters for preoperatively predicting the expression of Ki-67 in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: One hundred and forty patients (training cohorts n = 108; validation cohorts n = 32) with confirmed HCC were investigated. Mann-Whitney U test, independent sample t-test, and chi-squared test were used to analyze the continuous and categorical variables. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the clinical variables and parameters from MRI associated with Ki-67 expression. As a result, a nomogram was developed based on these associations in patients with HCC. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curves. RESULTS: In the training set, multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP-L3) levels, protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) levels, and tumor shape were independent predictors for Ki-67 expression (p < 0.05). These three variables and the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) value were used to establish a nomogram, while the ADC value was found to be a marginal significant predictor. The model demonstrated a strong ability to discriminate Ki-67 expression in both the training and validation cohorts (AUC = 0.862, 0.877). CONCLUSION: A non-invasive preoperative prediction method, which incorporates MRI variables and clinical features was developed, and showed effectiveness in evaluating Ki-67 expression in HCC patients.