A novel conditional survival nomogram for monitoring real-time prognosis of non-metastatic colorectal cancer.

ABSTRACT

AIMS: The aim of this study is to enhance the accuracy of monitoring and treatment information for patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: Utilizing the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, a cohort of 335,948 eligible CRC patients was included in this investigation. Conditional survival probability and actuarial overall survival were employed as methodologies to investigate the association between clinicopathological characteristics and cancer prognosis. RESULTS: Among CRC patients, the 5-year survival rate was 59%, while the 10-year survival rate was 42%. Over time, conditional survival showed a consistent increase, with rates reaching 45% and 48% for individuals surviving 1 and 2 years, respectively. Notably, patients with unfavorable tumor stages exhibited substantial improvements in conditional survival, thereby narrowing the disparity with actuarial overall survival over time. CONCLUSION: This study underscores the significance of time-dependent conditional survival probability, particularly for patients with a poorer prognosis. The findings suggest that long-term CRC survivors may experience improved cancer prognosis over time.