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Incidence of diabetes after SARS-CoV-2 infection in England and the implications of COVID-19 vaccination: a retrospective cohort study of 16 million people.
Taylor, Kurt; Eastwood, Sophie; Walker, Venexia; Cezard, Genevieve; Knight, Rochelle; Al Arab, Marwa; Wei, Yinghui; Horne, Elsie M F; Teece, Lucy; Forbes, Harriet; Walker, Alex; Fisher, Louis; Massey, Jon; Hopcroft, Lisa E M; Palmer, Tom; Cuitun Coronado, Jose; Ip, Samantha; Davy, Simon; Dillingham, Iain; Morton, Caroline; Greaves, Felix; Macleod, John; Goldacre, Ben; Wood, Angela; Chaturvedi, Nishi; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Denholm, Rachel.
Afiliación
  • Taylor K; Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
  • Eastwood S; MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK.
  • Walker V; Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
  • Cezard G; British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
  • Knight R; Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, Bristol, UK; The National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West) at Univ
  • Al Arab M; Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
  • Wei Y; Centre for Mathematical Sciences, School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK.
  • Horne EMF; Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, Bristol, UK.
  • Teece L; Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
  • Forbes H; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Walker A; The Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Fisher L; The Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Massey J; The Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Hopcroft LEM; The Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Palmer T; Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
  • Cuitun Coronado J; Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
  • Ip S; British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Centre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Pu
  • Davy S; The Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Dillingham I; The Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Morton C; The Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Greaves F; National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, Manchester, UK; Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Macleod J; Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, Bristol, UK; The National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West) at University Hospitals Bristol and Weston, Bristol, UK.
  • Goldacre B; The Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Wood A; British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence,
  • Chaturvedi N; MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK.
  • Sterne JAC; Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, Bristol, UK; Health Data Research UK South-West, Bristol, UK. Electronic address: jonathan.sterne@bristol.ac.uk.
  • Denholm R; Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, Bristol, UK; Health Data Research UK South-West, Bristol, UK.
Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol ; 12(8): 558-568, 2024 Aug.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39054034
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Some studies have shown that the incidence of type 2 diabetes increases after a diagnosis of COVID-19, although the evidence is not conclusive. However, the effects of the COVID-19 vaccine on this association, or the effect on other diabetes subtypes, are not clear. We aimed to investigate the association between COVID-19 and incidence of type 2, type 1, gestational and non-specific diabetes, and the effect of COVID- 19 vaccination, up to 52 weeks after diagnosis.

METHODS:

In this retrospective cohort study, we investigated the diagnoses of incident diabetes following COVID-19 diagnosis in England in a pre-vaccination, vaccinated, and unvaccinated cohort using linked electronic health records. People alive and aged between 18 years and 110 years, registered with a general practitioner for at least 6 months before baseline, and with available data for sex, region, and area deprivation were included. Those with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis were excluded. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) comparing diabetes incidence after COVID-19 diagnosis with diabetes incidence before or in the absence of COVID-19 up to 102 weeks after diagnosis. Results were stratified by COVID-19 severity (categorised as hospitalised or non-hospitalised) and diabetes type.

FINDINGS:

16 669 943 people were included in the pre-vaccination cohort (Jan 1, 2020-Dec 14, 2021), 12 279 669 in the vaccinated cohort, and 3 076 953 in the unvaccinated cohort (both June 1-Dec 14, 2021). In the pre-vaccination cohort, aHRs for the incidence of type 2 diabetes after COVID-19 (compared with before or in the absence of diagnosis) declined from 4·30 (95% CI 4·06-4·55) in weeks 1-4 to 1·24 (1·14-1.35) in weeks 53-102. aHRs were higher in unvaccinated people (8·76 [7·49-10·25]) than in vaccinated people (1·66 [1·50-1·84]) in weeks 1-4 and in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 (pre-vaccination cohort 28·3 [26·2-30·5]) in weeks 1-4 declining to 2·04 [1·72-2·42] in weeks 53-102) than in those who were not hospitalised (1·95 [1·78-2·13] in weeks 1-4 declining to 1·11 [1·01-1·22] in weeks 53-102). Type 2 diabetes persisted for 4 months after COVID-19 in around 60% of those diagnosed. Patterns were similar for type 1 diabetes, although excess incidence did not persist beyond 1 year after a COVID-19 diagnosis.

INTERPRETATION:

Elevated incidence of type 2 diabetes after COVID-19 is greater, and persists for longer, in people who were hospitalised with COVID-19 than in those who were not, and is markedly less apparent in people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19. Testing for type 2 diabetes after severe COVID-19 and the promotion of vaccination are important tools in addressing this public health problem.

FUNDING:

UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council, UKRI Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Health Data Research UK, Diabetes UK, British Heart Foundation, and the Stroke Association.
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Texto completo: 1 Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Vacunas contra la COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Límite: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Aged80 / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged País/Región como asunto: Europa Idioma: En Revista: Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Reino Unido
Texto completo
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Vacunas contra la COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Límite: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Aged80 / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged País/Región como asunto: Europa Idioma: En Revista: Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Reino Unido