Possibility of mpox viral transmission and control from high-risk to the general population: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Mpox is an emerging infectious disease that is now a global hazard. The strategies for preventing and controlling mpox should be further investigated in terms of transmission characteristics, infection risk among different populations, and ideal therapeutic approaches. METHODS: A multi-group dynamic model was used to quantify the transmissibility of mpox. We further analyzed the transmission risk from men who have sex with men (MSM) to non-MSM and evaluated the effects of three intervention measures, including community-based prevention, early detection, and vaccination. RESULTS: The median value of effective reproduction number (Reff) and probability of contact via a single contact (q) among MSM worldwide is 3.11 (interquartile range [IQR]: 2.82-5.57) and 2.15% (IQR: 1.95-3.84%). We found that the cumulative incidence rate of non-MSM is much lower than that of MSM (< 1/2048) when the possibility of infection (including the percentage of high-risk behaviors of contact degree [C] and q) was lowered to less than 1 in 100,000. When comparing the three intervention measures, if we want to control the cumulative incidence rate to 5.96 × 10-8 we need to increase the vaccine coverage to 81% or reduce the transmission rate factor (Cq) to 70% or shorten the transmission period to 74%. CONCLUSIONS: Mpox has high transmissibility in MSM, which required minimize the risk of infection and exposure to high-risk populations. Community prevention and control is the top priority of interventions to contain the spread of mpox.

MODELS: a six-step framework for developing an infectious disease model.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, a plethora of modeling studies related to COVID-19 have been released. While some models stand out due to their innovative approaches, others are flawed in their methodology. To assist novices, frontline healthcare workers, and public health policymakers in navigating the complex landscape of these models, we introduced a structured framework named MODELS. This framework is designed to detail the essential steps and considerations for creating a dependable epidemic model, offering direction to researchers engaged in epidemic modeling endeavors.

Dynamics and Efficacy: A Comprehensive Evaluation of the Advanced Dengue Fever Surveillance and Early Warning System in Ningbo City, 2023.

Objective: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the Dengue Fever Surveillance and Early Warning System deployed in Ningbo City during 2023, focusing on its capacity for timely identification and reporting of dengue fever cases, particularly imported cases from endemic regions. Methods: A detailed data of patient clinical features and blood profile trends was collected from clinical records and surveillance reports, focusing on the rapid diagnostic processes and surveillance rigor. This study assessed the effectiveness of the system in identifying and reporting dengue cases and identified the limitations of the existing framework through a basic statistical approach. Results: The system demonstrated timely identification and reporting of dengue fever cases, with a particular emphasis on imported cases. However, several limitations were identified, including the need for more precise monitoring criteria and improved coordination with medical entities. Conclusion: The study underscores the critical role of public health bodies in managing disease outbreaks and advocates for enhanced methodologies to refine epidemic control efforts. The findings contribute to the advancement of early warning mechanisms and the improvement of proactive infectious disease monitoring in metropolitan environments, providing valuable insights for fortifying the Dengue Fever Surveillance and Early Warning System in Ningbo City.

Temporal shifts in 24 notifiable infectious diseases in China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, along with the implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs), have markedly reshaped infectious disease transmission dynamics. We analysed the impact of PHSMs on 24 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) in the Chinese mainland, using time series models to forecast transmission trends without PHSMs or pandemic. Our findings revealed distinct seasonal patterns in NID incidence, with respiratory diseases showing the greatest response to PHSMs, while bloodborne and sexually transmitted diseases responded more moderately. 8 NIDs were identified as susceptible to PHSMs, including hand, foot, and mouth disease, dengue fever, rubella, scarlet fever, pertussis, mumps, malaria, and Japanese encephalitis. The termination of PHSMs did not cause NIDs resurgence immediately, except for pertussis, which experienced its highest peak in December 2023 since January 2008. Our findings highlight the varied impact of PHSMs on different NIDs and the importance of sustainable, long-term strategies, like vaccine development.

Relationship of various COVID-19 antibody titer with individual characteristics and prediction of future epidemic trend in Xiamen City, China.

Background: Reinfection of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has raised concerns about how reliable immunity from infection and vaccination is. With mass testing for the virus halted, understanding the current prevalence of COVID-19 is crucial. This study investigated 1,191 public health workers at the Xiamen Center for Disease Control, focusing on changes in antibody titers and their relationship with individual characteristics. Methods: The study began by describing the epidemiological characteristics of the study participants. Multilinear regression (MLR) models were employed to explore the associations between individual attributes and antibody titers. Additionally, group-based trajectory models (GBTMs) were utilized to identify trajectories in antibody titer changes. To predict and simulate future epidemic trends and examine the correlation of antibody decay with epidemics, a high-dimensional transmission dynamics model was constructed. Results: Analysis of epidemiological characteristics revealed significant differences in vaccination status between infected and non-infected groups (χ2=376.706, P<0.05). However, the distribution of antibody titers among the infected and vaccinated populations was not significantly different. The MLR model identified age as a common factor affecting titers of immunoglobulin G (IgG), immunoglobulin M (IgM), and neutralizing antibody (NAb), while other factors showed varying impacts. History of pulmonary disease and hospitalization influenced IgG titer, and factors such as gender, smoking, family history of pulmonary diseases, and hospitalization impacted NAb titers. Age was the sole determinant of IgM titers in this study. GBTM analysis indicated a "gradual decline type" trajectory for IgG (95.65%), while IgM and NAb titers remained stable over the study period. The high-dimensional transmission dynamics model predicted and simulated peak epidemic periods in Xiamen City, which correlated with IgG decay. Age-group-specific simulations revealed a higher incidence and infection rate among individuals aged 30-39 years during both the second and third peaks, followed by those aged 40-49, 50-59, 18-29, and 70-79 years. Conclusions: Our study shows that antibody titer could be influenced by age, previous pulmonary diseases as well as smoking. Furthermore, the decline in IgG titers is consistent with epidemic trends. These findings emphasize the need for further exploration of these factors and the development of optimized self-protection countermeasures against reinfection.

Transmissibility of the variant of concern for SARS-CoV-2 in six regions.

Introduction: Differences in transmissibility of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) in different districts are hard to assess. To address this, our study focused on calculating the Real-time reproduction number (R t ) for these variants in different regions. Methods: According to the criteria defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), the global landscape was categorized into six distinct regions. In each region, the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant was first identified based on the proportion of variant sequencing analysis results. Then, using serial interval (SI) parameters, we calculated R t for the relevant Variant of Concern (VOC) in each region. This approach enabled us to compare the R t values of the same variant across different regions and analyze the transmissibility of each region's variant in relation to the overall situation in that region. Results: The progression of VOC for SARS-CoV-2 shows regional variations. However, a common sequence of evolution is observed: Wild-type → Alpha → Beta → Delta → Omicron. Moreover, an increasing trend is discerned within diverse regions where the shift in R t of distinct VOC corresponds with the overarching R t route of SARS-CoV-2 in specific regions. Conclusion: As the COVID-19 pandemic advances, regional epidemiological trends are aligning, likely due to similar virus mutations and shared public health strategies, suggesting opportunities for standardized global responses.

Analysis of the effect of PCR testing and antigen testing on controlling the transmission for Omicron based on different scenarios.

After the policy adjustment, China no longer carries out COVID-19 PCR testing for all people, and antigen testing has become the main way to detect and manage infectious sources. We developed a dynamic model to evaluate and compare the effects between PCR and antigen testing for controlling the pandemic. Due to the increase of contact degree, the peak reduction effect of PCR testing in population is lower than that of antigen testing. Even if it was only 20% of people isolated at home after antigen testing, the peak of the epidemic could be reduced by 9.46%. If the proportion of antigen testing is further increased to 80%, the peak of the pandemic can be reduced by 31.41%. Antigen testing performed better effects in school (reduction proportion 29.27%) and community (29.34%) than in workplace (27.75%). Therefore, we recommend that antigen testing in the population should be encouraged during the pandemic, and home isolation of infected persons should be advocated, especially in crowded places. To improve the availability of antigen, the testing proportion should be further enhanced.

Evaluation of the transmissibility of norovirus and the effectiveness of prevention and control measures for schools in Jiangsu Province.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to estimate the transmissibility of norovirus outbreaks in schools by different transmission routes, and to evaluate the effects of isolation, school-closure and disinfection measures under different intervention intensities, finally, scientific prevention and control suggestions are proposed. METHOD: 23 outbreaks of norovirus infectious diarrhea occurring in Jiangsu Province's school from 2012-2018 were selected and fitted to the model. The data includes various types of school places and pathogen genotype. A 'SEIAQRW' model with two transmission routes was established. The transmissibility of each outbreak was assessed using effective reproduction number, the efficacy of different intervention measures and intensities were evaluated by calculating the total attack rate and peak incidence. RESULTS: The mean effective reproduction number of noroviruses was estimated to be 8.92 for the human-to-human route of transmission and 2.19 for the water or food-to-human route of transmission. When all symptomatic cases were isolated, the median peak incidence for both transmission routes both being less than 1.8%. There was a smaller reduction in total attack rate compared to peak incidence, the median total attack rate for the two transmission routes decreased by 17.59% and 42.09%, respectively. When the effect of school-closure or disinfection is more than 90%, the total attack rate and peak incidence in the human-to-human route are reduced by more than 90% compared to no intervention, and the peak incidence in the water or food-to-human routes can be reduced to less than 1.4%, but the reduction in the total attack rate is only 50% or so. CONCLUSION: Norovirus outbreaks have a high rate of transmission in schools. In the case of norovirus outbreaks, isolation should be complemented by other interventions, and the implementation of high-intensity school closures or disinfection of the external environment can be effective in reducing the spread of the virus.

A follow up study of cycle threshold values of SARS-CoV-2 in Hunan Province, China.

Since the epidemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), many governments have used reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to detect the virus. However, there are fewer measures of CT values information based on RT-PCR results, and the relationship between CT values and factors from consecutive tests is not clear enough. So in this study, we analyzed the connection between CT values and the factors based on cohort data from Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Hunan Province. Previous studies have showed that the mean age of the cases was 33.34 years (±18.72 years), with a female predominance (55.03%, n = 71), and the greatest proportion of clinical symptoms were of the common type (60.47%, n = 78). There were statistical differences between the N and ORF1ab genes in the CT values for the cases. Based on the analysis of the association between CT values and the factors, the lowest CT values were obtained for the unvaccinated, older and clinically symptomatic group at 3-10 days, the maximum peak of viral load occurred. Therefore, it is recommended to use patient information to focus on older, clinically symptomatic, unvaccinated patients and to intervene promptly upon admission.

Model-based risk assessment of dengue fever transmission in Xiamen City, China.

Background: Quantitative assessment of the risk of local transmission from imported dengue cases makes a great challenge to the development of public health in China. The purpose of this study is to observe the risk of mosquito-borne transmission in Xiamen City through ecological and insecticide resistance monitoring. Quantitative evaluation of mosquito insecticide resistance, community population and the number of imported cases affecting the transmission of dengue fever (DF) in Xiamen was carried out based on transmission dynamics model, so as to reveal the correlation between key risk factors and DF transmission. Methods: Based on the dynamics model and combined with the epidemiological characteristics of DF in Xiamen City, a transmission dynamics model was built to simulate the secondary cases caused by imported cases to evaluate the transmission risk of DF, and to explore the influence of mosquito insecticide resistance, community population and imported cases on the epidemic situation of DF in Xiamen City. Results: For the transmission model of DF, when the community population is between 10,000 and 25,000, changing the number of imported DF cases and the mortality rate of mosquitoes will have an impact on the spread of indigenous DF cases, however, changing the birth rate of mosquitoes did not gain more effect on the spread of local DF transmission. Conclusions: Through the quantitative evaluation of the model, this study determined that the mosquito resistance index has an important influence on the local transmission of dengue fever caused by imported cases in Xiamen, and the Brayton index can also affect the local transmission of the disease.

Assessment of transmissibility and measures effectiveness of SARS in 8 regions, China, 2002-2003.

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a form of atypical pneumonia which took hundreds of lives when it swept the world two decades ago. The pathogen of SARS was identified as SARS-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and it was mainly transmitted in China during the SARS epidemic in 2002-2003. SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 have emerged from the SARS metapopulation of viruses. However, they gave rise to two different disease dynamics, a limited epidemic, and an uncontrolled pandemic, respectively. The characteristics of its spread in China are particularly noteworthy. In this paper, the unique characteristics of time, space, population distribution and transmissibility of SARS for the epidemic were discussed in detail. Methods: We adopted sliding average method to process the number of reported cases per day. An SEIAR transmission dynamics model, which was the first to take asymptomatic group into consideration and applied indicators of R 0, Reff, Rt to evaluate the transmissibility of SARS, and further illustrated the control effectiveness of interventions for SARS in 8 Chinese cities. Results: The R 0 for SARS in descending order was: Tianjin city (R 0 = 8.249), Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Shanxi Province, Hebei Province, Beijing City, Guangdong Province, Taiwan Province, and Hong Kong. R 0 of the SARS epidemic was generally higher in Mainland China than in Hong Kong and Taiwan Province (Mainland China: R 0 = 6.058 ± 1.703, Hong Kong: R 0 = 2.159, Taiwan: R 0 = 3.223). All cities included in this study controlled the epidemic successfully (Reff<1) with differences in duration. Rt in all regions showed a downward trend, but there were significant fluctuations in Guangdong Province, Hong Kong and Taiwan Province compared to other areas. Conclusion: The SARS epidemic in China showed a trend of spreading from south to north, i.e., Guangdong Province and Beijing City being the central regions, respectively, and from there to the surrounding areas. In contrast, the SARS epidemic in the central region did not stir a large-scale transmission. There were also significant differences in transmissibility among eight regions, with R0 significantly higher in the northern region than that in the southern region. Different regions were able to control the outbreak successfully in differences time.

Epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility of HPV infection: A long-term retrospective study in Hokkien Golden Triangle, China, 2013-2021.

OBJECTIVE: Multiple human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated diseases have put a significant disease burden on the world. Therefore, we conducted a study to explore the epidemiological characteristics of HPV and the transmissibility of its genotypes. METHODS: HPV testing data was collected from Hospital. A transmission dynamics model of HPV was constructed to simulate and compare the transmissibility of different HPV genotypes, which was quantitatively described by the basic reproduction number (R0). RESULTS: The collected HPV subjects were mainly from Xiamen City, Zhangzhou City and Quanzhou City, together, they are known as the Hokkien golden triangle. There were variations in the distribution of HPV infections by age groups. Among all HPV genotypes, 13 of them had R0 > 1, with 10 of them being high-risk types. The top five were HPV56, 18, 58, 52 and 53, among which, HPV56, 18, 58 and 42 were of high risk, whereas HPV53 was not, and the R0 values for the five were 3.35 (CI: 0.00-9.99), 3.20 (CI: 0.00-6.46), 3.19 (CI: 1.27-6.94), 3.19 (CI: 1.01-8.42) and 2.99 (CI: 0.00-9.39), respectively. In addition, HPV52 had R0 > 1 for about 51 months, which had the longest duration. CONCLUSION: Most high-risk HPV types in the Hokkien golden triangle could transmit among the population. Therefore, there is a need of further optimization for developing HPV vaccines and better detection methods in the region.

Inactivated vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic COVID-19 in Fujian, China during the Omicron BA.2 outbreak.

Objective: More than 90% of the Chinese population have completed 2 doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in Mainland China. However, after China government abandoned strict control measures, many breakthrough infections appeared, and vaccine effectiveness against Omicron BA.2 infection was uncertain. This study aims to investigate the real-world effectiveness of widely used inactivated vaccines during the wave of Omicron variants. Methods: Test-negative case-control study was conducted in this study to analyze the vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease caused by the Omicron variant (BA.2) in Fujian, China. Conditional logistic regression was selected to estimate the vaccine effectiveness. Results: The study found the vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic COVID-19 is 32.46% (95% CI, 8.08% to 50.37%) at 2 to 8 weeks, and 27.05% (95% CI, 1.23% to 46.12%) at 12 to 24 weeks after receiving booster doses of the inactivated vaccine. Notably, the 3-17 years group had higher vaccine effectiveness after 2 doses than the 18-64 years and over 65 years groups who received booster doses. Conclusion: Inactivated vaccines alone may not offer sufficient protection for all age groups before the summer of 2022. To enhance protection, other types of vaccines or bivalent vaccines should be considered.

A comparative study on the three calculation methods for reproduction numbers of COVID-19.

Objective: This study uses four COVID-19 outbreaks as examples to calculate and compare merits and demerits, as well as applicational scenarios, of three methods for calculating reproduction numbers. Method: The epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreaks are described. Through the definition method, the next-generation matrix-based method, and the epidemic curve and serial interval (SI)-based method, corresponding reproduction numbers were obtained and compared. Results: Reproduction numbers (R eff ), obtained by the definition method of the four regions, are 1.20, 1.14, 1.66, and 1.12. Through the next generation matrix method, in region H R eff = 4.30, 0.44; region P R eff = 6.5, 1.39, 0; region X R eff = 6.82, 1.39, 0; and region Z R eff = 2.99, 0.65. Time-varying reproduction numbers (R t ), which are attained by SI of onset dates, are decreasing with time. Region H reached its highest R t = 2.8 on July 29 and decreased to R t < 1 after August 4; region P reached its highest R t = 5.8 on September 9 and dropped to R t < 1 by September 14; region X had a fluctuation in the R t and R t < 1 after September 22; R t in region Z reached a maximum of 1.8 on September 15 and decreased continuously to R t < 1 on September 19. Conclusion: The reproduction number obtained by the definition method is optimal in the early stage of epidemics with a small number of cases that have clear transmission chains to predict the trend of epidemics accurately. The effective reproduction number R eff , calculated by the next generation matrix, could assess the scale of the epidemic and be used to evaluate the effectiveness of prevention and control measures used in epidemics with a large number of cases. Time-varying reproduction number R t , obtained via epidemic curve and SI, can give a clear picture of the change in transmissibility over time, but the conditions of use are more rigorous, requiring a greater sample size and clear transmission chains to perform the calculation. The rational use of the three methods for reproduction numbers plays a role in the further study of the transmissibility of COVID-19.

Model-Based Evaluation of Transmissibility and Intervention Measures for a COVID-19 Outbreak in Xiamen City, China.

Background: In September 2021, there was an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Xiamen, China. Various non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) and pharmacological interventions (PIs) have been implemented to prevent and control the spread of the disease. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of various interventions and to identify priorities for the implementation of prevention and control measures. Methods: The data of patients with COVID-19 were collected from 8 to 30 September 2021. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) dynamics model was developed to fit the data and simulate the effectiveness of interventions (medical treatment, isolation, social distancing, masking, and vaccination) under different scenarios. The effective reproductive number (Reff ) was used to assess the transmissibility and transmission risk. Results: A total of 236 cases of COVID-19 were reported in Xiamen. The epidemic curve was divided into three phases (Reff = 6.8, 1.5, and 0). Notably, the cumulative number of cases was reduced by 99.67% due to the preventive and control measures implemented by the local government. In the effective containment stage, the number of cases could be reduced to 115 by intensifying the implementation of interventions. The total number of cases (TN) could be reduced by 29.66-95.34% when patients voluntarily visit fever clinics. When only two or three of these measures are implemented, the simulated TN may be greater than the actual number. As four measures were taken simultaneously, the TN may be <100, which is 57.63% less than the actual number. The simultaneous implementation of five interventions could rapidly control the transmission and reduce the number of cases to fewer than 25. Conclusion: With the joint efforts of the government and the public, the outbreak was controlled quickly and effectively. Authorities could promptly cut the transmission chain and control the spread of the disease when patients with fever voluntarily went to the hospital. The ultimate effect of controlling the outbreak through only one intervention was not obvious. The combined community control and mask wearing, along with other interventions, could lead to rapid control of the outbreak and ultimately lower the total number of cases. More importantly, this would mitigate the impact of the outbreak on society and socioeconomics.

Natural history and cycle threshold values analysis of COVID-19 in Xiamen City, China.

Objective: This study elaborated the natural history parameters of Delta variant, explored the differences in detection cycle thresholds (Ct) among cases. Methods: Natural history parameters were calculated based on the different onset time and exposure time of the cases. Intergenerational relationships between generations of cases were calculated. Differences in Ct values of cases by gender, age, and mode of detection were analyzed statistically to assess the detoxification capacity of cases. Results: The median incubation period was 4 days; the detection time for cases decreased from 25 to 7 h as the outbreak continued. The average generation time (GT), time interval between transmission generations (TG) and serial interval (SI) were 3.6 ± 2.6 days, 1.67 ± 2.11 days and 1.7 ± 3.0 days. Among the Ct values, we found little differences in testing across companies, but there were some differences in the gender of detected genes. The Ct values continuous to decreased with age, but increased when the age was greater than 60. Conclusion: This epidemic was started from aggregation of factories. It is more reasonable to use SI to calculate the effective reproduction number and the time-varying reproduction number. And the analysis of Ct values can improve the positive detection rate and improve prevention and control measures.