Development of Ridge Ensemble Standardized Drought Index (RESDI) for improving drought characterization and future assessment.

Global warming upsets the environmental balance and leads to more frequent and severe climatic events. These extreme events include floods, droughts, and heatwaves. These widespread extreme events disrupt various sectors of ecosystems directly. However, among all these events, drought is one of the most prolonged climatic events that significantly destroys the ecosystem. Therefore, accurate and efficient assessment of droughts is necessary to mitigate their detrimental impacts. In recent years, several drought indices based on global climate models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) have been proposed to quantify and monitor droughts. However, each index has its advantages and limitations. As each index ensembles different models by using different statistical approaches, it is well known that the margin of error is always a part of statistics. Therefore, this study proposed a new drought index to reduce the uncertainty involved in the assessment of droughts. The proposed index named the Ridge Ensemble Standardized Drought Index (RESDI) is based on the innovative ensemble approach termed ridge parameters and distance-based weighting (RDW) scheme. And the development of this RDW scheme is based on two types of methods i.e., ridge regression and divergence-based method. In this research, we ensemble 18 different GCMs of CMIP6 using the RDW scheme. A comparative analysis of the RDW scheme is performed against the simple model average (SMA) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) schemes at 32 locations on the Tibetan plateau. The comparison revealed that RDW has less mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE). Therefore, the developed RESDI based on RDW is used to project drought properties under three distinct shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, across seven different time scales (1, 3, 7, 9, 12, 24, and 48). The projected data is then standardized by using the K-components Gaussian mixture model (K-CGMM). In addition, the study employs steady-state probabilities (SSPs) to determine the long-term behavior of drought. The outcome of this research shows that "normal drought (ND)" has the highest probability of occurrence under all scenarios and time scales.

Who gets diverted into treatment? a study of defendants with psychosis.

The current study aimed to advance our understanding of the factors that influence mental health diversion in Local Courts in New South Wales, Australia. Logistic regression was used to systematically identify the factors that are correlated with diversion in a cohort of individuals (N = 7283) diagnosed with psychosis. Those with a substance-induced psychotic disorder were less likely to be diverted than those with an affective psychosis or schizophrenia, after adjusting for age, gender, Indigenous status, offence seriousness, violence and criminal history. Unexpectedly, those with psychotic disorders committing violent or serious offences were more likely to be diverted than those committing non-violent, less serious offences. Legal representation should be provided to all individuals with serious mental illnesses facing criminal charges. The State-wide Community and Court Liaison Service should be expanded to more Local Courts. Further research is required into why Aboriginal defendants with a psychotic illness are less likely to be diverted.

Mental health service utilisation and reoffending in offenders with a diagnosis of psychosis receiving non-custodial sentences: A 14-year follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE: While psychosis is considered a risk factor for offending, little is reported about mental health service utilisation in offenders with psychosis and its relationship with reoffending. We examined the association between contact with mental health services and reoffending in those diagnosed with psychosis. METHODS: We linked health and offending records in New South Wales (Australia) and identified all individuals with a diagnosis of psychosis and a subsequent offence resulting in a non-custodial sentence between 2001 and 2012. We examined the incidence and risk factors for reoffending, and time to reoffending between 2001 and 2015 using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival methods. We specifically examined the association between clinical contact with community mental health services following the index offence and reoffending. RESULTS: Of the 7393 offenders with psychosis, 70% had clinical contact and 49% reoffended. There was a linear relationship between an increased number of clinical contacts and reduced risk of reoffending: those with no clinical contact had more than a fivefold risk of reoffending compared to those with the highest number of contacts (adjusted hazard ratio = 5.78, 95% confidence interval = [5.04, 6.62]). Offenders with substance-related psychosis and those convicted of non-violent offences had fewer clinical contacts and higher rates of reoffending when compared with controls (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.29, 95% confidence interval = [1.13, 1.47] and adjusted hazard ratio = 1.26, 95% confidence interval = [1.18, 1.35], respectively). CONCLUSION: This study supports an association between more frequent mental health service use and reduced risk of reoffending. Efforts to enhance mental health service utilisation in those with psychosis who are at a higher risk of reoffending should be promoted.

Reporting methodological issues of the mendelian randomization studies in health and medical research: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomization (MR) studies using Genetic risk scores (GRS) as an instrumental variable (IV) have increasingly been used to control for unmeasured confounding in observational healthcare databases. However, proper reporting of methodological issues is sparse in these studies. We aimed to review published papers related to MR studies and identify reporting problems. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review using the clinical articles published between 2009 and 2019. We searched PubMed, Scopus, and Embase databases. We retrieved information from every MR study, including the tests performed to evaluate assumptions and the modelling approach used for estimation. Using our inclusion/exclusion criteria, finally, we identified 97 studies to conduct the review according to the PRISMA statement. RESULTS: Only 66 (68%) of the studies empirically verified the first assumption (Relevance assumption), and 40 (41.2%) studies reported the appropriate tests (e.g., R2, F-test) to investigate the association. A total of 35.1% clearly stated and discussed theoretical justifications for the second and third assumptions. 30.9% of the studies used a two-stage least square, and 11.3% used the Wald estimator method for estimating IV. Also, 44.3% of the studies conducted a sensitivity analysis to illuminate the robustness of estimates for violations of the untestable assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: We found that incompleteness of the justification of the assumptions for the instrumental variable in MR studies was a common problem in our selected studies. This may misdirect the findings of the studies.

Intracanal calcification following regenerative endodontic treatment: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Calcification is a common finding in endodontic cases after regenerative endodontic therapy (RET). We aimed to identify the prevalence of intracanal calcification after RET and to compare intracanal calcification outcomes in RET using either calcium hydroxide [Ca(OH)2] or antibiotics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, and Scopus databases for clinical, cross-sectional, case-control, and cohort RET studies published until May 2020 in the English language and reporting a calcified case after RET. The Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized trials and Risk of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions were used for bias assessment. Meta-analyses were performed, overall and separately, for intracanal medicaments using a random-effects model with weighted inverse variance methods. Subgroup analysis was performed according to the calcification type. RESULTS: Eight studies were included. The overall prevalence of intracanal calcification after RET was 30.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.15-0.45,[Formula: see text]=92.6%), 46.5% with Ca(OH)2 vs. 25.8% with antibiotic-based intracanal medicaments. Subgroup analyses for complete calcification outcome showed a higher prevalence of complete calcification in the Ca(OH)2 group (46.5%, 95% CI: 0.17-0.68,[Formula: see text]%) than in the antibiotic group (10%, 95% CI: - 0.04-0.43,[Formula: see text]%). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the studies included, available evidence shows a statistically significant association between complete calcification and Ca(OH)2 paste as an intracanal medicament. Other contributing factors, such as blood clot formation and follow-up time, might also play an essential role in forming intracanal calcification. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This study highlights the significant association between complete calcification and Ca(OH)2 paste.

Disengagement from mental health treatment and re-offending in those with psychosis: a multi-state model of linked data.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Individuals with psychosis are over-represented in the criminal justice system and, as a group, are at elevated risk of re-offending. Recent studies have observed an association between increased contacts with mental health services and reduced re-offending, as well as reduced risk of re-offending in those who are ordered to mental health treatment rather than punitive sanctions. In furthering this work, this study examines the effect of disengagement from mental health treatment on probability of re-offence in offenders with psychosis over time. METHODS: Data linkage was conducted with judicial, health and mortality datasets from New South Wales, Australia (2001-2015). The study population included 4960 offenders with psychosis who received non-custodial sentences and engaged with community-based mental health treatment. Risk factors for leaving treatment and/or reconviction were examined using multivariate cox regression. Further, a multi-state model was used to observe the probabilities associated with individuals moving between three states: conviction, disengagement from mental health treatment and subsequent re-conviction. RESULTS: A threefold increase was observed in the risk of re-offending for those who disengaged from treatment compared to those who did not (aHR = 2.76, 95% CI 1.65-4.62, p < 0.001). The median time until re-offence was 195 days, with the majority (67%) being convicted within one year of leaving treatment. A higher risk of leaving treatment was found for those born outside of Australia, with substance-related psychosis, and a history of violent offence. CONCLUSIONS: The findings argue for an emphasis on continued engagement with mental health services following release for offenders with psychosis and identify subgroups within this population for whom concentrated efforts regarding treatment retention should be targeted.

A novel approach for estimating fertility rates in finite populations using count regression models.

Demographic health surveys (DHS) contain in-depth information about the demographic characteristics and the factors affecting them. However, fertility rates which are the important indicators of population growth have been estimated by utilizing the design-based approaches. Model-based approach, on the other hand, facilitates efficient predictive estimates for these rates by utilizing the demographic and other family planning related characters. In this article, we first attempt to observe the effect of various socio-demographic and family planing related factors on births counts by fitting different regression models to Pakistan Demographic Health Survey 2017-2018 data under classical as well as Bayesian frameworks. The births occurred during the time periods of 1-year, 3-years and 5-years are taken as the responses and modeled using different non-linear models. The model-based approach is then used for estimation of the fertility measures including age-specific fertility rates, total fertility rate, general fertility rate, and gross reproduction rate for ever-married women in Pakistan. The performance of the model-based estimators is examined using a bootstrapped sampling algorithm. While the age-specific fertility rates are over-estimated for some age groups and under-estimated for others. The model-based fertility estimates are recommended for estimating the demographic indicators at national and sub-national levels when survey data contains incomplete or missing responses.

Evaluating water-related health risks in East and Central Asian Islamic Nations using predictive models (2020-2030).

This paper presents a thorough evaluation of health outcomes linked to water-related challenges in Islamic nations across East Asia and Central Asia from 2020 to 2030. It has been examined carefully that the trajectory of deaths and disability-adjusted life years associated with unsafe water sources, lack of sanitation, and absence of handwashing facilities is showing a potential rise in negative health impacts due to water pollution. The direct health influences of water-related problems are thoughtful. The increase in deaths and DALYs due to poor water quality and sanitation leads to a higher occurrence of waterborne diseases such as cholera, diarrhea, and dysentery. These conditions not only cause instant health disasters but also subsidize to long-term health issues which include chronic gastrointestinal disorders and malnutrition that is particularly among susceptible populations like children and the elderly. Employing various predictive models including autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, support vector machines, and neural networks. The study evaluates their predictive capabilities by using mean absolute percentage error. Support vector machines is found to be the most accurate in forecasting deaths and disability-adjusted life years which is outperforming autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, and neural networks. This research aims to inform stakeholders by providing insights into effective strategies for improving water resource management and public health interventions in the targeted regions.

Development of improved estimators of finite population mean in simple random sampling with dual auxiliaries and its application to real world problems.

In general, the incorporation of supplementary information reduces the Mean Square Error (MSE) and, consequently, enhances the precision of estimating a population parameter. This improvement relies on the appropriate application of a suitable function, with careful consideration. This study introduces two innovative families of estimators for the finite population mean, both of which exhibit superior performance in scenarios involving dual auxiliary information in simple random sampling. Expressions up to the first-order approximation, for bias, and Mean Square Error were derived, and the conditions under which these proposed families surpassed the existing estimators. Our evaluation involved the use of both real and simulated data to compute the Mean Square Error and Percent Relative Efficiency (PRE) of the estimators. A comparative analysis revealed that under the specified conditions, both proposed families yielded more precise results.

Improved exponential type variance estimators for population utilizing supplementary information.

This paper contributes to the existing literature on variance estimators by utilizing supplementary information. The variance estimation problem of a finite population is a significant matter as sometimes, it is tough to control the variation. For this purpose, an optimum family of exponential variance estimators is suggested under simple random sampling. Moreover, different specific members of the proposed estimators are identified by incorporating various known characteristics of the supplementary variable in the suggested generalized class of estimators. The derivations for the expressions of bias as well as mean square error (MSE) of the proposed estimators are conducted. The suggested family of estimators is studied in different situations by using sets of real data and simulation studies for their performance. To evaluate the efficiency of the suggested estimators, R software is used for the analysis. The study compares the performance of the proposed estimators against the traditional estimators. The theoretical and numerical comparisons show that the estimators suggested in the study are superior in efficiency as compared to the existing estimators.

New adaptive EWMA CV control chart with application to the sintering process.

This research presents a new adaptive exponentially weighted moving average control chart, known as the coefficient of variation (CV) EWMA statistic to study the relative process variability. The production process CV monitoring is a long-term process observation with an unstable mean. Therefore, a new modified adaptive exponentially weighted moving average (AAEWMA) CV monitoring chart using a novel function hereafter referred to as the "AAEWMA CV" monitoring control chart. the novelty of the suggested AAEWMA CV chart statistic is to identify the infrequent process CV changes. A continuous function is suggested to be used to adapt the plotting statistic smoothing constant value as per the process estimated shift size that arises in the CV parametric values. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to compute the run-length values, which are used to analyze efficiency. The existing AEWMA CV chart is less effective than the proposed AAEWMA CV chart. An industrial data example is used to examine the strength of the proposed AAEWMA CV chart and to clarify the implementation specifics which is provided in the example section. The results strongly recommend the implementation of the proposed AAEWMA CV control chart.

Physical health status of individuals convicted of sexual offences: Results from an Australian prisoner cohort.

Although the poor health of prisoners poses a serious public health problem, very little is known about the health of specific offender groups. Three waves of an Australian Inmate Health Survey were used to describe the self-reported and objectively tested health of men incarcerated for sexual offences against children only (ISOC), adults only (ISOA), and against both (age-polymorphous; ISOP) compared to men incarcerated without sexual offences. ISOC and ISOP were found to have the poorest self-reported health of all groups, with higher rates of eyesight and cardiovascular problems; however, lower rates of Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C as objectively measured. There are important implications for the correctional and public health systems for addressing the health needs of specific offenders.

Mental health service contact following release from prison or hospital discharge in those with psychosis.

Background: An association exists between psychosis and criminal offending, which evidence suggests can be reduced by effective mental health care for this vulnerable population. However mental health services often lose contact with people after diagnosis. The association between the first episode of psychosis and criminal offending highlights the need for effective mental health care for this vulnerable population. Aims: To investigate the association between the first diagnosis of psychosis (FDP) in prison or hospital and subsequent mental health service contact following release from prison or discharge from hospital. Materials and methods: Individuals with a FDP either in prison (n = 492) or hospital setting (n = 24,910) between July 2006 and December 2011 in NSW (Australia), were followed post-release or discharge until their first mental health service contact in the community, the occurrence of an offence, death, or completion of the study period at the end of December 2012. Cox regression models were used to examine the predictors for the mental health service contacts following release or discharge. Results: Over 70% of those with a FDP in prison or hospital had a psychosis-related or any community-based mental health service contact following release or discharge between July 2006 and December 2012. Those with a FDP in prison were more likely to have no contact with mental health services than those in hospital with no prior offence record (hazard ratio, HR = 3.14, 95% CI: 2.66-3.72 and adjusted hazard ratio, aHR = 3.05, 95% CI: 2.56-3.63) within a median follow-up time of 25 days for the prison group and 26 days for hospital group. Males, individuals of Aboriginal heritage and individuals diagnosed with substance-related psychoses compared to those with schizophrenia and related psychoses were less likely to have a mental health service contact following release or discharge in both the univariable and multivariable analysis. Conclusion: This study suggests that prior offending or a previous prison episode represents a barrier to mental health service contact in the community for those with a FDP. Effective rehabilitation planning while exiting prison and discharge planning from hospital are essential to the successful reintegration of these individuals with a FDP.

Clinical characteristics and predictors of mortality among COVID-19 patients in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused more than 1.8 million deaths, with a fatality rate of 2.5% in more than 200 countries as of January 4, 2021. Analysis of COVID-19 clinical features can help predict disease severity and risk of mortality, early identification of high-risk patients, and provide knowledge to inform clinical interventions. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to investigate the clinical characteristics and possible predictors associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 admitted to King Fahad (KFH), Ohood, and Miqat hospitals in Madina, Saudi Arabia. METHODS: This retrospective observational study to investigate the clinical characteristic and possible predictors associated with mortality for those 119 mild, moderate, or critically ill patients confirmed by laboratory results to have COVID-19 who were admitted to three hospitals in Madina, Saudi Arabia, from March 25, 2020, to July 30, 2020. Data were collected from December 1, 2020, to December 14, 2020. RESULTS: Of the 119 patients included in the study, the mean age was 54.2 (±15.7) years, with 78.2% survivors and 21.8% non-survivors. The demographic analysis indicated that the likelihood of mortality for patients in the older age group (i.e., ≥65 years) was five times higher than those in the younger age group (OR = 5.34, 95% CI 1.71-16.68, p = 0.004). The results also indicated those patients who admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) was approximately seven times higher odds of mortality compare with those who were not admitted (OR = 6.48, 95% CI 2.52-16.63, p < 0.001). In addition, six laboratory parameters were positively associated with the odds of mortality: white blood cell count (OR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.21, p = 0.018), neutrophil (OR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.22, p = 0.020), creatine kinase myocardial band (OR = 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03, p = 0.030), C-reactive protein (OR = 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.01, p = 0.002), urea (OR = 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.11, p = 0.026), and lactate dehydrogenase (OR = 1.00, 95% CI 1.00-1.01, p = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, COVID-19 patients within the older age group (≥65 years) admitted to the ICU with increased C-reactive protein levels in particular, were associated with increased odds of mortality. Further clinical observations are warranted to support these findings and enhance the mapping and control of this pandemic.

Self-harm and suicidality among three subgroups of male sex offenders: results from an Australian prisoner cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Prisoners complete suicide and self-harm more frequently than members of the community. Sex offenders have been found to be at greater risk of engaging in these behaviours. This study examines the characteristics, prevalence, and predictors of self-harm and suicide attempts among: sex offenders that only victimise children (ChildSOs); adults (AdultSOs); or both (age-crossover polymorphous; PolySOs). METHODS: Data from three waves (1996, 2001, 2009) of the New South Wales (NSW) Inmate Health Survey was linked to the State's re-offending database to identify men with histories of sexual offending. The health surveys captured self-report data on self-harm and suicidality. RESULTS: Non-sexual violent offenders (15%) and AdultSOs (14%) had the highest rate of self-harm, significantly more than ChildSOs (11%), non-sexual non-violent offenders (10%), and PolySOs (0%). Several factors significantly predicted self-harm at the bivariate level for both ChildSOs and AdultSOs, with unique predictors for each group. At the multivariate level, manic-depression trended towards significance for ChildSOs and any mental health condition remained a significant predictor for AdultSOs who self-harmed relative to AdultSOs who had not (aOR = 11.989, 95%CI [1.14, 126.66]). Approximately 23% of AdultSOs, 22% of PolySOs, and 19% of ChildSOs reported a suicide attempt throughout their lifetime, whereas only 15% of non-sexual non-violent offenders reported an attempt. At the bivariate level, few factors were significant for ChildSOs while several factors were significant for AdultSOs. At the multivariate level, a diagnosis of depression and treatment with psychiatric medication trended towards being significant predictors of suicide attempts for ChildSOs. In contrast, treatment with psychiatric medication (aOR = 25.732, 95%CI [1.91, 347.19])] remained a significant predictor for AdultSOs who attempted suicide relative to AdultSOs who had not, as well as historical psychiatric hospitalisation (aOR = 6.818, 95%CI [1.04, 44.82]) and self-harm (aOR = 5.825, 95%CI [1.31, 25.99]). CONCLUSION: Sex offenders are at significantly higher risk of attempting and completing suicide relative to non-sexual non-violent offenders and warrant special attention. The prevalence rates and predictors of self-harm and suicidality suggest differences between sex offender subgroups may exist. These hold implications for the criminal justice and public health systems for addressing needs and identifying those most at risk of self-harm and suicide.

Fatherhood Following Treatment for Testicular Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses.

Purpose: Testicular cancer (TC) is considered the most commonly diagnosed malignancy in males between 15 and 34 years of age. The objective of this study is to systematically review and meta-analyze studies on fatherhood following treatment for TC. Methods: We reviewed studies reporting on fatherhood following TC from Medline and Embase search engines by developing search strategies. Only studies including patients with TC and at least one reproductive variable were considered as part of the analysis. Estimate of heterogeneity was calculated using the I2 statistic. Meta-analyses employing a fixed effects model were also applied as an additional measure of sensitivity. Results: A total of 27 studies were included which reported on fatherhood after treatment for TC. A meta-analysis of included studies with subgroup analysis was conducted. Subgroup analysis, for the combined studies, indicated an overall pooled pregnancy rate of 22% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.21-0.23; I2 = 98.1%) for couples who conceived after TC. Of those couples that became pregnant, 11% (95% CI: 0.07-0.16; I2 = 8.5%) experienced a miscarriage. Fatherhood was experienced by 37% (95% CI: 0.35-0.39; I2 = 98.1%) of males following treatment for TC. Conclusions: Male cancer patients should be offered discussions, information, and counseling regarding the impact that TC treatment can have on fertility. Furthermore, sperm banking must be recommended to all patients before starting treatment.

Association Between Early Contact With Mental Health Services After an Offense and Reoffending in Individuals Diagnosed With Psychosis.

Importance: Psychosis is a known risk factor for offending behavior, but little is known about the association between clinical contact with mental health services after an offense and reoffending. Objective: To examine the association between early contact with mental health services and reoffending after an index offense in individuals with psychosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, individuals diagnosed with psychosis before their index offense from July 1, 2001, to December 31, 2012, and who received a noncustodial sentence were identified by linking health and offending databases in New South Wales, Australia. The incidence of and risk factors for reoffending and time to reoffending within 2 years from the index offense were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. Specifically, the association between contact with mental health services within 30 days after an offense and reoffending was examined. Data were analyzed from July 1, 2019, to March 5, 2020. Exposures: Hospital admission, emergency department presentation, and contact with community mental health services associated with psychosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Reoffending within 2 years of the index offense was compared in individuals with and without clinical contact with mental health services within 30 days after an offense, with adjustment for potential confounders. Results: Of the 7030 offenders with psychosis (4933 male [70.2%]; median age at the index offense, 34 [interquartile range, 26-42] years), 2605 (37.1%) had clinical contact with mental health services within 30 days after the index offense. The risk of reoffending was significantly lower in those with vs without clinical contact (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76-0.91). The risk of reoffending was 30% less in male offenders with 5 or more clinical contacts compared with male offenders with no clinical contact (AHR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.59-0.84). Reoffending in both male and female offenders was associated with younger age (eg, AHR for male offenders aged <18 years, 3.31 [95% CI, 2.39-4.59]; AHR for female offenders aged <18 years, 2.60 [95% CI, 1.69-3.99]) and offending history (eg, AHR for male offenders with ≥4 prior offenses, 2.28 [95% CI, 1.98-2.64]; AHR for female offenders with ≥4 prior offenses, 2.22 [95% CI, 1.67-2.96]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort, early and frequent clinical contact with mental health services after an offense in individuals with psychosis was associated with reduced risk of reoffending in this group. More support may be needed for early treatment of those with serious mental illness who are at risk of reoffending.

First diagnosis of psychosis in the prison: results from a data-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Psychosis is more prevalent among people in prison compared with the community. Early detection is important to optimise health and justice outcomes; for some, this may be the first time they have been clinically assessed. AIMS: Determine factors associated with a first diagnosis of psychosis in prison and describe time to diagnosis from entry into prison. METHOD: This retrospective cohort study describes individuals identified for the first time with psychosis in New South Wales (NSW) prisons (2006-2012). Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with a first diagnosis of psychosis. Cox regression was used to describe time to diagnosis from entry into prison. RESULTS: Of the 38 489 diagnosed with psychosis for the first time, 1.7% (n = 659) occurred in prison. Factors associated with an increased likelihood of being diagnosed in prison (versus community) were: male gender (odds ratio (OR) = 2.27, 95% CI 1.79-2.89), Aboriginality (OR = 1.81, 95% CI 1.49-2.19), older age (OR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.37-2.11 for 25-34 years and OR = 1.63, 95% CI 1.29-2.06 for 35-44 years) and disadvantaged socioeconomic area (OR = 4.41, 95% CI 3.42-5.69). Eight out of ten were diagnosed within 3 months of reception. CONCLUSIONS: Among those diagnosed with psychosis for the first time, only a small number were identified during incarceration with most identified in the first 3 months following imprisonment. This suggests good screening processes are in place in NSW prisons for detecting those with serious mental illness. It is important these individuals receive appropriate care in prison, have the opportunity to have matters reheard and possibly diverted into treatment, and are subsequently connected to community mental health services on release. DECLARATION OF INTEREST: None.

Court diversion for those with psychosis and its impact on re-offending rates: results from a longitudinal data-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: With significant numbers of individuals in the criminal justice system having mental health problems, court-based diversion programmes and liaison services have been established to address this problem.AimsTo examine the effectiveness of the New South Wales (Australia) court diversion programme in reducing re-offending among those diagnosed with psychosis by comparing the treatment order group with a comparison group who received a punitive sanction. METHOD: Those with psychoses were identified from New South Wales Ministry of Health records between 2001 and 2012 and linked to offending records. Cox regression models were used to identify factors associated with re-offending. RESULTS: A total of 7743 individuals were identified as diagnosed with a psychotic disorder prior to their court finalisation date for their first principal offence. Overall, 26% of the cohort received a treatment order and 74% received a punitive sanction. The re-offending rate in the treatment order group was 12% lower than the punitive sanction group. 'Acts intended to cause injury' was the most common type of the first principal offence for the treatment order group compared with the punitive sanction group (48% v. 27%). Drug-related offences were more likely to be punished with a punitive sanction than a treatment order (12% v. 2%). CONCLUSIONS: Among those with a serious mental illness (i.e. psychosis), receiving a treatment order by the court rather than a punitive sanction was associated with reduced risk for subsequent offending. We further examined actual mental health treatment received and found that receiving no treatment following the first offence was associated with an increased risk of re-offending and, so, highlighting the importance of treatment for those with serious mental illness in the criminal justice system.