Estimated Effects of Different Alcohol Taxation and Price Policies on Health Inequalities: A Mathematical Modelling Study.

INTRODUCTION: While evidence that alcohol pricing policies reduce alcohol-related health harm is robust, and alcohol taxation increases are a WHO "best buy" intervention, there is a lack of research comparing the scale and distribution across society of health impacts arising from alternative tax and price policy options. The aim of this study is to test whether four common alcohol taxation and pricing strategies differ in their impact on health inequalities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An econometric epidemiological model was built with England 2014/2015 as the setting. Four pricing strategies implemented on top of the current tax were equalised to give the same 4.3% population-wide reduction in total alcohol-related mortality: current tax increase, a 13.4% all-product duty increase under the current UK system; a value-based tax, a 4.0% ad valorem tax based on product price; a strength-based tax, a volumetric tax of £0.22 per UK alcohol unit (= 8 g of ethanol); and minimum unit pricing, a minimum price threshold of £0.50 per unit, below which alcohol cannot be sold. Model inputs were calculated by combining data from representative household surveys on alcohol purchasing and consumption, administrative and healthcare data on 43 alcohol-attributable diseases, and published price elasticities and relative risk functions. Outcomes were annual per capita consumption, consumer spending, and alcohol-related deaths. Uncertainty was assessed via partial probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and scenario analysis. The pricing strategies differ as to how effects are distributed across the population, and, from a public health perspective, heavy drinkers in routine/manual occupations are a key group as they are at greatest risk of health harm from their drinking. Strength-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have greater effects on mortality among drinkers in routine/manual occupations (particularly for heavy drinkers, where the estimated policy effects on mortality rates are as follows: current tax increase, -3.2%; value-based tax, -2.9%; strength-based tax, -6.1%; minimum unit pricing, -7.8%) and lesser impacts among drinkers in professional/managerial occupations (for heavy drinkers: current tax increase, -1.3%; value-based tax, -1.4%; strength-based tax, +0.2%; minimum unit pricing, +0.8%). Results from the PSA give slightly greater mean effects for both the routine/manual (current tax increase, -3.6% [95% uncertainty interval (UI) -6.1%, -0.6%]; value-based tax, -3.3% [UI -5.1%, -1.7%]; strength-based tax, -7.5% [UI -13.7%, -3.9%]; minimum unit pricing, -10.3% [UI -10.3%, -7.0%]) and professional/managerial occupation groups (current tax increase, -1.8% [UI -4.7%, +1.6%]; value-based tax, -1.9% [UI -3.6%, +0.4%]; strength-based tax, -0.8% [UI -6.9%, +4.0%]; minimum unit pricing, -0.7% [UI -5.6%, +3.6%]). Impacts of price changes on moderate drinkers were small regardless of income or socioeconomic group. Analysis of uncertainty shows that the relative effectiveness of the four policies is fairly stable, although uncertainty in the absolute scale of effects exists. Volumetric taxation and minimum unit pricing consistently outperform increasing the current tax or adding an ad valorem tax in terms of reducing mortality among the heaviest drinkers and reducing alcohol-related health inequalities (e.g., in the routine/manual occupation group, volumetric taxation reduces deaths more than increasing the current tax in 26 out of 30 probabilistic runs, minimum unit pricing reduces deaths more than volumetric tax in 21 out of 30 runs, and minimum unit pricing reduces deaths more than increasing the current tax in 30 out of 30 runs). Study limitations include reducing model complexity by not considering a largely ineffective ban on below-tax alcohol sales, special duty rates covering only small shares of the market, and the impact of tax fraud or retailer non-compliance with minimum unit prices. CONCLUSIONS: Our model estimates that, compared to tax increases under the current system or introducing taxation based on product value, alcohol-content-based taxation or minimum unit pricing would lead to larger reductions in health inequalities across income groups. We also estimate that alcohol-content-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have the largest impact on harmful drinking, with minimal effects on those drinking in moderation.

The collectivity of British alcohol consumption trends across different temporal processes: a quantile age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: UK alcohol consumption per capita has fallen by 18% since 2004, while the alcohol-specific death rate has risen by 6%. Inconsistent consumption trends across the population may explain this. Drawing on the theory of the collectivity of drinking cultures and age-period-cohort analyses, we tested whether consumption trends are consistent across lighter and heavier drinkers for three temporal processes: (i) the life-course, (ii) calendar time and (iii) successive birth cohorts. DESIGN: Sex-specific quantile age-period-cohort regressions using repeat cross-sectional survey data. SETTING: Great Britain, 1984-2011. PARTICIPANTS: Adult (18+) drinkers responding to 17 waves of the General Lifestyle Survey (total n = 175 986). MEASUREMENTS: Dependent variables: the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th and 99th quantiles of the logged weekly alcohol consumption distribution (excluding abstainers). INDEPENDENT VARIABLES: seven age groups (18-24, 25-34… 65-74, 75+ years), five time-periods (1984-88… 2002-06, 2008-11) and 16 five-year birth cohorts (1915-19… 1990-94). Additional control variables: ethnicity and UK country. FINDINGS: Within age, period and cohort trends, changes in consumption were not consistently in the same direction at different quantiles of the consumption distribution. When they were, the scale of change sometimes differed between quantiles. For example, between 1996-2000 and 2008-2011, consumption among women decreased by 18% [95% confidence interval (CI) = -32 to -2%] at the 10th quantile but increased by 11% (95% CI = 2-21%) at the median and by 28% (95% CI = 19-38%) at the 99th quantile, implying that consumption fell among lighter drinkers and rose among heavier drinkers. This type of polarized trend also occurred between 1984-88 and 1996-2000 for men and women. Age trends showed collectivity, but cohort trends showed a mixture of collectivity and polarization. CONCLUSIONS: Countervailing alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm trends in the United Kingdom may be explained by lighter and heavier drinkers having different period and cohort trends, as well as by the presence of cohort trends that mean consumption may rise in some age groups while falling in others.

Modeling the Potential Impact of Changing Access Rates to Specialist Treatment for Alcohol Dependence for Local Authorities in England: The Specialist Treatment for Alcohol Model (STreAM).

OBJECTIVE: We modeled the impact of changing Specialist Treatment Access Rates to different treatment pathways on the future prevalence of alcohol dependence, treatment outcomes, service capacity, costs, and mortality. METHOD: Local Authority numbers and the prevalence of people "potentially in need of assessment for and treatment in specialist services for alcohol dependence" (PINASTFAD) are estimated by mild, moderate, severe, and complex needs. Administrative data were used to estimate the Specialist Treatment Access Rate per PINASTFAD person and classify 22 different treatment pathways. Other model inputs include natural remission, relapse after treatment, service costs, and mortality rates. "What-if" analyses assess changes to Specialist Treatment Access Rates and treatment pathways. Model outputs include the numbers and prevalence of people who are PINASTFAD, numbers treated by 22 pathways, outcomes (successful completion with abstinence, successfully moderated nonproblematic drinking, re-treatment within 6 months, dropout, transfer, custody), mortality rates, capacity requirements (numbers in contact with community services or staying in residential or inpatient places), total treatment costs, and general health care savings. Five scenarios illustrate functionality: (a) no change, (b) achieve access rates at the 70th percentile nationally, (c) increase access by 25%, (d) increase access to Scotland rate, and (e) reduce access by 25%. RESULTS: At baseline, 14,581 people are PINASTFAD (2.43% of adults) and the Specialist Treatment Access Rate is 10.84%. The 5-year impact of scenarios on PINASTFAD numbers (vs. no change) are (B) reduced by 191 (-1.3%), (C) reduced by 477 (-3.3%), (D) reduced by almost 2,800 (-19.2%), and (E) increased by 533 (+3.6%). The relative impact is similar for other outputs. CONCLUSIONS: Decision makers can estimate the potential impact of changing Specialist Treatment Access Rates for alcohol dependence.

Developing a social practice-based typology of British drinking culture in 2009-2011: implications for alcohol policy analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The concept of national drinking culture is well established in research and policy debate, but rarely features in contemporary alcohol policy analysis. We aim to demonstrate the value of the alternative concept of social practices for quantitatively operationalizing drinking culture. We discuss how a practice perspective addresses limitations in existing analytical approaches to health-related behaviour before demonstrating its empirical application by constructing a statistical typology of British drinking occasions. DESIGN: Cross-sectional latent class analysis of drinking occasions derived from retrospective 1-week drinking diaries obtained from quota samples of a market research panel. Occasions are periods of drinking with no more than 2 hours between drinks. SETTING: Great Britain, 2009-11. CASES: A total of 187 878 occasions nested within 60 215 nationally representative adults (aged 18 + years). MEASUREMENTS: Beverage type and quantity per occasion; location, company and gender composition of company; motivation and reason for occasion; day, start-time and duration of occasion; and age, sex and social grade. FINDINGS: Eight occasion types are derived based primarily on parsimony considerations rather than model fit statistics. These are mixed location heavy drinking (10.4% of occasions), heavy drinking at home with a partner (9.4%), going out with friends (11.1%), get-together at someone's house (14.4%), going out for a meal (8.6%), drinking at home alone (13.6%), light drinking at home with family (12.8%) and light drinking at home with a partner (19.6%). CONCLUSIONS: An empirical model of drinking culture, comprising a typology of drinking practices, reveals the dominance of moderate drinking practices in Great Britain. The model demonstrates the potential for a practice perspective to be used in evaluation of how and why drinking cultures change in response to public health interventions.

Alcohol tax pass-through across the product and price range: do retailers treat cheap alcohol differently?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Effective use of alcohol duty to reduce consumption and harm depends partly on retailers passing duty increases on to consumers via price increases, also known as 'pass-through'. The aim of this analysis is to provide evidence of UK excise duty and sales tax (VAT) pass-through rates for alcohol products at different price points. SETTING: March 2008 to August 2011, United Kingdom. DESIGN AND MEASUREMENTS: Panel data quantile regression estimating the effects of three duty changes, two VAT changes and one combined duty and VAT change on UK alcohol prices, using product-level supermarket price data for 254 alcohol products available weekly. Products were analysed in four categories: beers, ciders/ready to drink (RTDs), spirits and wines. FINDINGS: Within all four categories there exists considerable heterogeneity in the level of duty pass-through for cheaper versus expensive products. Price increases for the cheapest 15% of products fall below duty rises (undershifting), while products sold above the median price are overshifted (price increases are higher than duty increases). The level of undershifting is greatest for beer [0.85 (0.79, 0.92)] and spirits [0.86 (0.83, 0.89)]. Undershifting affects approximately 67% of total beer sales and 38% of total spirits sales. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol retailers in the United Kingdom appear to respond to increases in alcohol tax by undershifting their cheaper products (raising prices below the level of the tax increase) and overshifting their more expensive products (raising prices beyond the level of the tax increase). This is likely to impact negatively on tax policy effectiveness, because high-risk groups favour cheaper alcohol and undershifting is likely to produce smaller consumption reductions.