Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy.

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.

Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation.

Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes.

Mechanisms underpinning climatic impacts on natural populations: altered species interactions are more important than direct effects.

Shifts in species' distribution and abundance in response to climate change have been well documented, but the underpinning processes are still poorly understood. We present the results of a systematic literature review and meta-analysis investigating the frequency and importance of different mechanisms by which climate has impacted natural populations. Most studies were from temperate latitudes of North America and Europe; almost half investigated bird populations. We found significantly greater support for indirect, biotic mechanisms than direct, abiotic mechanisms as mediators of the impact of climate on populations. In addition, biotic effects tended to have greater support than abiotic factors in studies of species from higher trophic levels. For primary consumers, the impact of climate was equally mediated by biotic and abiotic mechanisms, whereas for higher level consumers the mechanisms were most frequently biotic, such as predation or food availability. Biotic mechanisms were more frequently supported in studies that reported a directional trend in climate than in studies with no such climatic change, although sample sizes for this comparison were small. We call for more mechanistic studies of climate change impacts on populations, particularly in tropical systems.

Past, present, and future of the Living Planet Index.

As we enter the next phase of international policy commitments to halt biodiversity loss (e.g., Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework), biodiversity indicators will play an important role in forming the robust basis upon which targeted, and time sensitive conservation actions are developed. Population trend indicators are one of the most powerful tools in biodiversity monitoring due to their responsiveness to changes over short timescales and their ability to aggregate species trends from global down to sub-national or even local scale. We consider how the project behind one of the foremost population level indicators - the Living Planet Index - has evolved over the last 25 years, its value to the field of biodiversity monitoring, and how its components have portrayed a compelling account of the changing status of global biodiversity through its application at policy, research and practice levels. We explore ways the project can develop to enhance our understanding of the state of biodiversity and share lessons learned to inform indicator development and mobilise action.

Changes in prolactin and glucocorticoid levels in cotton-top tamarin fathers during their mate's pregnancy: the effect of infants and paternal experience.

We have previously shown that paternally experienced cotton-top tamarin fathers (Saguinus oedipus) had significant increases in prolactin and glucocorticoids at the midpoint of their mate's pregnancy, whereas less experienced fathers showed prolactin increases only the month before offspring birth [Ziegler & Snowdon, Hormones & Behavior 38:159-167, 2000; Ziegler et al., Hormones & Behavior 45:84-92, 2004]. These results could be owing to differing paternal experience or from paternal care given to previous offspring. To test the relative role of infant cues and paternal experience in these hormonal changes, we paired four paternally experienced tamarin fathers with a novel, primiparous female and monitored hormone levels during their first pregnancy together. No fathers showed the significant mid-pregnancy increase in prolactin seen previously. However, all fathers showed increases in cortisol and significant peaks of corticosterone in mid-pregnancy. The increase in corticosterone was consistent with previous data occurring in each male during the same week or the week following the urinary cortisol increase shown by his mate. These data may suggest that the elevated mid-gestation prolactin seen previously in experienced males may be owing to the presence of offspring from the previous set of infants. In contrast, increased cortisol and corticosterone occurred independently of infant cues and may be related to previous paternal experience. We therefore conclude that both offspring presence and paternal experience contribute to the hormonal changes seen in experienced cotton-top tamarin fathers during their mate's pregnancy.

Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines.

In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species' population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.

Suppression of prolactin does not reduce infant care by parentally experienced male common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus).

High levels of prolactin have been found to correlate with the expression of paternal care in a variety of taxa. However, in mammals, there is little experimental evidence that prolactin is causally involved in the stimulation or maintenance of paternal care. Here, we suppressed prolactin production in paternally experienced common marmoset fathers in their family groups during the first 2 weeks after their infants were born. Circulating prolactin levels were suppressed using cabergoline (Dostinex: Pfizer), a long acting dopamine (D2) agonist with minimal behavioural side-effects. A within-subject design was used to compare behavioural and hormonal data on 5 paternally experienced fathers during two consecutive births. Cabergoline reduced prolactin to negligible levels in all fathers without effecting testosterone, DHT and cortisol and without adverse side-effects. However, lowering prolactin had no significant effect on the expression of majority of the behaviour patterns associated with paternal care. These included infant carrying, infant grooming and the frequency with which fathers retrieved and rejected infants. The only infant-related behaviour to be affected was the frequency with which fathers touched, licked and investigated infants. We noted a marginally significant increase in this behaviour during cabergoline treatment. Despite the lack of effect on paternal care, cabergoline did exert an effect on the affiliative/sexual behaviour of fathers as there was a significant increase in the grooming behaviour fathers directed at and received from their mates during drug treatment. This study showed that experienced male marmosets can express paternal behaviour in the absence of the high prolactin levels normally seen after infants are born.

Adult-infant food transfer in common marmosets: an experimental study.

Infant marmosets and tamarins obtain solid food items from adults during and after the time of weaning. In addition to providing nutrients, food transfers may provide infants with the opportunity to learn about diet. The aim of this study was to investigate patterns of begging and food transfer in captive groups of common marmosets during tests with 1) palatable novel food, 2) unpalatable novel food, and 3) familiar food. Infants may gain an opportunity to learn about diet breadth by preferentially begging for novel rather than familiar items, while adults may facilitate infant learning by differing in their willingness to transfer food depending upon the food's novelty or palatability. In this study, infants exhibited more interest and begging with novel food items than with familiar ones. However, food transfers were not more likely to occur with novel foods than with familiar ones, and in fact adults were more likely to refuse infant begging attempts with novel foods. The palatability of the food also did not influence the rates of refusal and transfer: adults transferred palatable and unpalatable novel foods with similar frequencies. These results suggest that infant marmosets gain an opportunity to learn about diet breadth by begging for novel foods, but adults do not preferentially transfer novel or palatable food items.