Temporal trends in impairments of physical function among older adults during 2001-16 in Sweden: towards a healthier ageing.

Background: a trend towards decline in disability has been reported in older adults, but less is known about corresponding temporal trends in measured physical functions. Objective: to verify these trends during 2001-16 in an older Swedish population. Methods: functional status was assessed at three occasions: 2001-04 (n = 2,266), 2007-10 (n = 2,033) and 2013-16 (n = 1,476), using objectively measured balance, chair stands and walking speed. Point prevalence was calculated and trajectories of change in impairment/vital status were assessed and were sex-adjusted and age-stratified: 66; 72; 78; 81 and 84; 87 and 90. Results: point prevalence of impairment was significantly lower at the 2013-16 assessment than the 2001-04 in chair stand amongst age cohorts 78-90 years, and in walking speed amongst age cohorts 72-84 years (P < 0.05), but not significantly different for balance. The prevalence remained stable between 2001-04 and 2007-10, while the decrease in chair stands and walking speed primarily occurred between 2007-10 and 2013-16. Among persons unimpaired in 2007-10, the proportion of persons who remained unimpaired in 2013-16 tended to be higher, and both the proportion of persons who became impaired and the proportion of persons who died within 6 years tended to be lower, relative to corresponding proportions for persons unimpaired in 2001-04. Overall, there were no corresponding changes for those starting with impairment. Conclusions: our results suggest a trend towards less functional impairment in older adults in recent years. The improvements appear to be driven by improved prognosis amongst those without impairments rather than substantial changes in prognosis for those with impairments.

Association of mobility limitations with incident disability among older adults: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: mobility-related limitations predict future disability; however, the extent to which individual and combined mobility tests may predict disability remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: to estimate the odds of developing disability in activities of daily living (ADL) according to limitations in walking speed, balance or both; and explore the role of chronic diseases and cognitive function. DESIGN: a prospective cohort study. SETTING: urban area of Stockholm, Sweden. SUBJECTS: one thousand nine hundred and seventy-one disability-free persons (age ≥60 years, 63% women) from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K), who underwent baseline examination in 2001-04 and follow-up assessments for 6 years. MEASUREMENTS: mobility limitation was defined as a one-leg balance stand <5 s or walking speed <0.8 m/s. ADL disability was defined as the inability to complete one or more ADL: bathing, dressing, using the toilet, transferring and eating. RESULTS: during a total of 11,404 person-years (mean per person 5.8 years, SD 0.30) of follow-up, 119 (incidence 1.5/100 person-years) participants developed ADL disability. The demographic adjusted odds ratios (OR) (95% confidence intervals, CI) of incident ADL disability related to balance stand and walking speed limitations were 3.8 (2.3-6.3) and 8.4 (5.2-13.3), respectively. The associations remained statistically significant after controlling for number of chronic diseases and cognitive status. People with limitations in both balance and walking speed had an OR of 12.9 (95% CI 7.0-23.7) for incident disability compared with no limitation. CONCLUSION: balance and walking speed tests are simple clinical procedures that can indicate hierarchical risk of ADL dependence in older adults.

Impact of living alone on institutionalization and mortality: a population-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Living alone is common among elderly people in Western countries, and studies on its relationship with institutionalization and all-cause mortality have shown inconsistent results. We investigated that the impact of living alone on institutionalization and mortality in a population-based cohort of elderly people. METHODS: Data originate from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care-Kungsholmen. Participants aged ≥66 years and living at home (n = 2404) at baseline underwent interviews and clinical examination. Data on living arrangements were collected in interviews. All participants were followed for 6 years; survival status and admission into institutions were tracked continuously through administrative registers from 2001 to 2007. Data were analysed using Cox proportional hazard models, competing risk regressions and Laplace regressions with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of the 2404 participants, 1464 (60.9%) lived alone at baseline. During the follow-up, 711 (29.6%) participants died, and 185 (15.0%) were institutionalized. In the multi-adjusted Cox model, the hazard ratio (HR) of mortality in those living alone was 1.35 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18 to 1.54), especially among men (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.76). Living alone shortened survival by 0.6 years and was associated with the risk of institutionalization (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.77) after taking death into account as a competing risk. CONCLUSIONS: Living alone is associated with elevated mortality, especially among men and an increased risk of institutionalization. Over a 6-year period, living alone was related to a half year reduction in survival among elderly people in Sweden.

Vascular risk factor burden, atherosclerosis, and functional dependence in old age: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Vascular risk factors such as hypertension and obesity have been associated with physical limitations among older adults. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to examine whether individual and aggregated vascular risk factors (VRFs) are associated with functional dependence and to what extent carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) or peripheral artery disease (PAD) may mediate the possible associations of aggregated VRFs with functional dependence. METHOD: This cross-sectional study included 1,451 community-living participants aged ≥60 years in the Confucius Hometown Aging Project of China. Data on demographic features, hypertension, high total cholesterol, obesity, smoking, physical inactivity, diabetes, CAS, PAD, and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) were collected through an interview, a clinical examination, and laboratory tests. Functional dependence was defined as being dependent in at least one activity in the personal or instrumental activities of daily living. Data were analyzed using multiple logistic models controlling for potential confounders. We used the mediation model to explore the potential mediating effect of CAS and PAD on the associations of aggregated VRFs with functional dependence. RESULTS: Of the 1,451 participants, 222 (15.3%) had functional dependence. The likelihood of functional dependence increased linearly with increasing number of VRFs (hypertension, high total cholesterol, abdominal obesity, and physical inactivity) (p for trend <0.002). Mediation analysis showed that controlling for demographics and CVDs up to 11% of the total association of functional dependence with clustering VRFs was mediated by CAS and PAD. CONCLUSION: Aggregation of multiple VRFs is associated with an increased likelihood of functional dependence among Chinese older adults; the association is partially mediated by carotid and peripheral artery atherosclerosis independently of CVDs.

Education-related differences in physical performance after age 60: a cross-sectional study assessing variation by age, gender and occupation.

BACKGROUND: Having a low level of education has been associated with worse physical performance. However, it is unclear whether this association varies by age, gender or the occupational categories of manual and non-manual work. This study examined whether there are education-related differences across four dimensions of physical performance by age, gender or occupational class and to what extent chronic diseases and lifestyle-related factors may explain such differences. METHODS: Participants were a random sample of 3212 people, 60 years and older, both living in their own homes and in institutions, from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care, in Kungsholmen, Stockholm. Trained nurses assessed physical performance in grip strength, walking speed, balance and chair stands, and gathered data on education, occupation and lifestyle-related factors, such as physical exercise, body mass index, smoking and alcohol consumption. Diagnoses of chronic diseases were made by the examining physician. RESULTS: Censored normal regression analyses showed that persons with university education had better grip strength, balance, chair stand time and walking speed than people with elementary school education. The differences in balance and walking speed remained statistically significant (p < 0.05) after adjustment for chronic diseases and lifestyle. However, age-stratified analyses revealed that the differences were no longer statistically significant in advanced age (80+ years). Gender-stratified analyses revealed that women with university education had significantly better grip strength, balance and walking speed compared to women with elementary school education and men with university education had significantly better chair stands and walking speed compared to men with elementary school education in multivariate adjusted models. Further analyses stratified by gender and occupational class suggested that the education-related difference in grip strength was only evident among female manual workers, while the difference in balance and walking speed was only evident among female and male non-manual workers, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Higher education was associated with better lower extremity performance in people aged 60 to 80, but not in advanced age (80+ years). Our results indicate that higher education is associated with better grip strength among female manual workers and with better balance and walking speed among female and male non-manual workers, respectively.

Adherence to physical exercise recommendations in people over 65--the SNAC-Kungsholmen study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited knowledge regarding to what extent the older population meet the recommendations of physical exercise, especially fitness-enhancing exercise. This study assessed participation in health- and fitness-enhancing exercises in people aged >65, and explored to what extent the possible differences in meeting current recommendations differs by age, gender and education. METHODS: The study population was derived from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care, and consisted of a random sample of 2593 subjects, aged 65+ years. Participation in health- and fitness-enhancing exercise according to the WHO and the American College of Sports Medicine's recommendations in relation to age, gender and education was evaluated using multinomial logistic regression adjusted for health indicators and physical performance. RESULTS: According to the recommendations, 46% of the participants fulfilled the criteria for health-enhancing and 16% for fitness-enhancing exercises. Independent of health indicators and physical performance, women <80 years of age were less likely than men to participate in fitness-enhancing exercise, but they participated more in health-enhancing exercise. In the advanced age group (80+ years), women were less likely to participate both in fitness- and health-enhancing exercise. Advanced age and low education were negatively related to participation in both health- and fitness-enhancing exercise independent of health indicators, but the association was not observed among people with fast walking speed. CONCLUSION: Promoting physical exercise and encouraging participation among older adults with lower education, especially among those with initial functional decline, may help to reduce adverse health outcomes.

Can chronic multimorbidity explain the age-related differences in strength, speed and balance in older adults?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It is known that physical performance declines with age in general, however there remains much to be understood in terms of age-related differences amongst older adults across a variety of physical components (such as speed, strength and balance), and particularly in terms of the role played by multimorbidity of chronic diseases. We aimed to detect the age-related differences across four components of physical performance and to explore to what extent chronic diseases and multimorbidity may explain such differences. METHODS: We analyzed cross-sectional data from a population-based sample of 3323 people, aged 60 years and older from the SNAC-K study, Stockholm, Sweden. Physical performance was assessed by trained nurses using several tests (grip strength, walking speed, balance and chair stands). Clinical diagnoses were made by the examining physician based on clinical history and examination. RESULTS: Censored normal regression analyses showed that the 72-90+ year-old persons had 17-40% worse grip strength, 44-86% worse balance, 30-86% worse chair stand score, and 21-59% worse walking speed, compared with the 60-66 year-old persons. Chronic diseases were strongly associated with physical impairment, and this association was particularly strong among the younger men. However, chronic diseases explained only some of the age-related differences in physical performance. When controlling for chronic diseases in the analyses, the age-related differences in physical performance changed 1-11%. CONCLUSION: In spite of the strong association between multimorbidity and physical impairment, chronic morbidities explained only a small part of the age-related differences in physical performance.

Long-term interleukin-6 levels and subsequent risk of coronary heart disease: two new prospective studies and a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The relevance to coronary heart disease (CHD) of cytokines that govern inflammatory cascades, such as interleukin-6 (IL-6), may be underestimated because such mediators are short acting and prone to fluctuations. We evaluated associations of long-term circulating IL-6 levels with CHD risk (defined as nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI] or fatal CHD) in two population-based cohorts, involving serial measurements to enable correction for within-person variability. We updated a systematic review to put the new findings in context. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Measurements were made in samples obtained at baseline from 2,138 patients who had a first-ever nonfatal MI or died of CHD during follow-up, and from 4,267 controls in two cohorts comprising 24,230 participants. Correction for within-person variability was made using data from repeat measurements taken several years apart in several hundred participants. The year-to-year variability of IL-6 values within individuals was relatively high (regression dilution ratios of 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28-0.53, over 4 y, and 0.35, 95% CI 0.23-0.48, over 12 y). Ignoring this variability, we found an odds ratio for CHD, adjusted for several established risk factors, of 1.46 (95% CI 1.29-1.65) per 2 standard deviation (SD) increase of baseline IL-6 values, similar to that for baseline C-reactive protein. After correction for within-person variability, the odds ratio for CHD was 2.14 (95% CI 1.45-3.15) with long-term average ("usual") IL-6, similar to those for some established risk factors. Increasing IL-6 levels were associated with progressively increasing CHD risk. An updated systematic review of electronic databases and other sources identified 15 relevant previous population-based prospective studies of IL-6 and clinical coronary outcomes (i.e., MI or coronary death). Including the two current studies, the 17 available prospective studies gave a combined odds ratio of 1.61 (95% CI 1.42-1.83) per 2 SD increase in baseline IL-6 (corresponding to an odds ratio of 3.34 [95% CI 2.45-4.56] per 2 SD increase in usual [long-term average] IL-6 levels). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term IL-6 levels are associated with CHD risk about as strongly as are some major established risk factors, but causality remains uncertain. These findings highlight the potential relevance of IL-6-mediated pathways to CHD.

Kidney dysfunction and fatal cardiovascular disease--an association independent of atherosclerotic events: results from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study.

BACKGROUND: Impaired kidney function has been associated with increased risk for death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure in high-risk populations. We evaluated whether impaired kidney function predicted risk of fatal cardiovascular disease independent of prevalent and incident cardiovascular events. METHODS: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition study is a cohort of well-functioning, elderly participants aged 70 to 79 years at entry. We measured serum cystatin C and creatinine from baseline plasma samples of 3044 participants and followed them over 6 years, examining the associations among kidney function, cardiovascular death, and incident cardiovascular events. Cystatin C was categorized as low (< 0.84 mg/L), medium (0.84-1.18 mg/L), or high (> or = 1.19 mg/L); serum creatinine (cutoff value of > or = 1.3 in women and > or = 1.5 in men) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; greater and less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2) were dichotomized. RESULTS: During follow-up, 242 cardiovascular deaths occurred, of which 69 were in participants without prior cardiovascular events; 294 incident cardiovascular events occurred including 135 myocardial infarctions and 163 strokes. Higher cystatin C concentrations were significantly associated with cardiovascular death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.70, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-2.76 for the medium cystatin C group; and HR 2.24, 95% CI 1.30-3.86 for the high cystatin C group, relative to the low cystatin C group). The point estimate was of greater magnitude in the analysis that excluded prevalent cardiovascular disease (adjusted HR 2.68, 95% CI 0.94-7.70 for the medium cystatin C group; and HR 4.91, 95% CI, 1.55-15.54 for the high cystatin C group). Elevated creatinine levels (adjusted HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.02-2.33, and HR 2.28, 95% CI 1.10-4.73 among participants without a history of cardiovascular disease) were also associated with cardiovascular death. No significant association was found between low eGFR and cardiovascular death. In addition, cystatin C, low eGFR, or elevated creatinine levels were not associated with other cardiovascular events. CONCLUSION: Impaired kidney function is a strong predictor of cardiovascular death, particularly among participants without prior history of cardiovascular disease.

Effect of Chronic Diseases and Multimorbidity on Survival and Functioning in Elderly Adults.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the effect of chronic disorders and their co-occurrence on survival and functioning in community-dwelling older adults. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Kungsholmen, Stockholm, Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 78 and older examined by physicians four times over 11 years (N = 1,099). MEASUREMENTS: Chronic diseases (grouped according to 10 organ systems according to the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, code) and multimorbidity (≥2 coexisting chronic diseases) were evaluated in terms of mortality, population attributable risk of death, median years of life lost, and median survival time with and without disability (need of assistance in ≥1 activities of daily living). RESULTS: Approximately one in four deaths were attributable to cardiovascular and one in six to neuropsychiatric diseases. Malignancy was the condition with the shortest survival time (2.5 years). Malignancies and cardiovascular disorders each accounted for approximately 5 years of life lost. In contrast, neurosensorial and neuropsychiatric conditions had the longest median survival time (>6 years), and affected people were disabled for more than half of this time. The most-prevalent and -burdensome condition was multimorbidity, affecting 70.4% of the population, accounting for 69.3% of total deaths, and causing 7.5 years of life lost. Finally, people with multimorbidity lived 81% of their remaining years of life with disability (median 5.2 years). CONCLUSION: Survival in older adults differs in length and quality depending on specific conditions. The greatest negative effect at the individual (shorter life, greater dependence) and societal (number of attributable deaths, years spent with disability) level was from multimorbidity, which has made multimorbidity a clinical and public health priority.

Defining Health Trajectories in Older Adults With Five Clinical Indicators.

BACKGROUND: People age differently, challenging the identification of those more at risk of rapid health deterioration. This study aimed to explore the heterogeneity in the health of older adults by using five clinical indicators to detect age-related variation and individual health trajectories over time. METHODS: Health of 3,363 people aged 60+ from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care-Kungsholmen (SNAC-K) assessed at baseline and at 3- and 6-year follow-ups. Number of chronic diseases, physical and cognitive performance, personal and instrumental activities of daily living were integrated in a health assessment tool (HAT). Interindividual health differences at baseline and follow-ups were assessed with logistic quantile regression. Intraindividual health trajectories were traced with quantile mixed-effect models. RESULTS: The HAT score ranges from 0 (poor health) to 10 (good health); each score corresponds to a specific clinical profile. HAT was reliable over time and accurately predicted adverse health outcomes (receiver-operating characteristic areas: hospitalization = 0.78; 95% confidence interval = 0.74-0.81; mortality = 0.85; 95% confidence interval = 0.83-0.87; similar areas obtained for gait speed). Before age 85, at least 90% of participants were free of severe disability, and at least 50% were functionally independent despite chronic disorders. Age- and sex-related variation and high heterogeneity in health were detected at baseline and confirmed by intraindividual health trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a positive picture of the health status of people 60+. Despite the complexity and heterogeneity of health in this age group, we could identify age- and sex-specific health trajectories using an integrated HAT. HAT is potentially useful in clinical practice and public health interventions.

Assessing and Measuring Chronic Multimorbidity in the Older Population: A Proposal for Its Operationalization.

BACKGROUND: Although the definition of multimorbidity as "the simultaneous presence of two or more chronic diseases" is well established, its operationalization is not yet agreed. This study aims to provide a clinically driven comprehensive list of chronic conditions to be included when measuring multimorbidity. METHODS: Based on a consensus definition of chronic disease, all four-digit level codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) were classified as chronic or not by an international and multidisciplinary team. Chronic ICD-10 codes were subsequently grouped into broader categories according to clinical criteria. Last, we showed proof of concept by applying the classification to older adults from the Swedish National study of Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K) using also inpatient data from the Swedish National Patient Register. RESULTS: A disease or condition was considered to be chronic if it had a prolonged duration and either (a) left residual disability or worsening quality of life or (b) required a long period of care, treatment, or rehabilitation. After applying this definition in relation to populations of older adults, 918 chronic ICD-10 codes were identified and grouped into 60 chronic disease categories. In SNAC-K, 88.6% had ≥2 of these 60 disease categories, 73.2% had ≥3, and 55.8% had ≥4. CONCLUSIONS: This operational measure of multimorbidity, which can be implemented using either or both clinical and administrative data, may facilitate its monitoring and international comparison. Once validated, it may enable the advancement and evolution of conceptual and theoretical aspects of multimorbidity that will eventually lead to better care.

Telomerase Gene (hTERT) and Survival: Results From Two Swedish Cohorts of Older Adults.

Telomere length has been associated with longevity. As telomere length is partly determined by the human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT), we investigated the association between an hTERT polymorphism located in its promoter region ((-) (1327)T/C) and longevity in two cohorts of older adults. Participants from the Kungsholmen project (KP; n = 1,205) and the Swedish National study of Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K; n = 2,764) were followed for an average period of 7.5 years. The main outcomes were hazard ratios (HR) of mortality and median age at death. In both cohorts, mortality was lower in female T/T carriers, aged 75+ years in KP (HR = 0.8, 95% CI: 0.5-0.9) and 78+ years in SNAC-K (HR = 0.6, 95% CI: 0.4-0.8) compared with female C/C carriers. T/T carriers died 1.8-3 years later than the C/C carriers. This effect was not present in men, neither in SNAC-K women aged 60-72 years. The association was not modified by presence of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, number of chronic diseases, or markers of inflammation, and did not interact with APOE genotype or estrogen replacement therapy. The gender-specific increased survival in T/T carriers can be due to a synergistic effect between genetic background and the life-long exposure to endogenous estrogen.

Coexisting chronic conditions in the older population: Variation by health indicators.

BACKGROUND: This study analyzes the prevalence and patterns of coexisting chronic conditions in older adults. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. PARTICIPANT AND SETTING: A sample of 3363 people ≥60years living in Stockholm were examined from March 2001 through August 2004. MEASUREMENTS: Chronic conditions were measured with: 1) multimorbidity (≥2 concurrent chronic diseases); 2) the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale, 3) polypharmacy (≥5 prescribed drugs), and 4) complex health problems (chronic diseases and/or symptoms along with cognitive and/or functional limitations). RESULTS: A total of 55.6% of 60-74year olds and 13.4% of those ≥85years did not have chronic conditions according to the four indicators. Multimorbidity and polypharmacy were the most prevalent indicators: 38% aged 60-74 and 76% aged ≥85 had multimorbidity; 24.3% aged 60-74 and 59% aged ≥85 had polypharmacy. Prevalence of chronic conditions as indicated by the comorbidity index and complex health problems ranged from 16.5% and 1.5% in the 60-74year olds to 38% and 36% in the 85+ year olds, respectively. Prevalence of participants with 4 indicators was low, varying from 1.6% in those aged 60-74 to 14.9% in those aged ≥85years. Older age was associated with higher odds of each of the 4 indicators; being a woman, with all indicators but multimorbidity; and lower educational level, only with complex health problems. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of coexisting chronic conditions varies greatly by health indicator used. Variation increases when age, sex, and educational level are taken into account. These findings underscore the need of different indicators to capture health complexity in older adults.

Temporal trends of functional dependence and survival among older adults from 1991 to 2010 in Sweden: toward a healthier aging.

BACKGROUND: Declines in functional dependence among older adults were observed before the 1990s, but there is uncertainty about subsequent trends. Our study aimed to verify the temporal trends in disability during 1991-2010 in an older Swedish population and to estimate the associated changes in survival. METHODS: Functional status in octogenarians and nonagenarians was assessed at seven occasions with intervals of 2-3 years. Sample size varied at each assessment with an average of 646 (range 212-1096). Disability was defined as difficulty in one or more of personal activities of daily living. We compared prevalence and incidence, as well as mortality, and survival associated with disability over the 20-year period. RESULTS: Sex-standardized prevalence of disability remained steady over time with a tendency toward a gradual decline, and a statistically significant decrease was present among nonagenarians. Sex-standardized cumulative incidence also remained steady. The proportion of people with prevalent disability who died <3 years remained stable, as did the survival time of people with incident disability. In contrast, among nondisabled persons, 3-year mortality decreased significantly, and for octogenarians median survival time was 1.3 years longer at the more recent assessment than a decade earlier. CONCLUSIONS: Both prevalence and incidence of disability remained stable over the last two decades in this urban Swedish population, with a trend toward a slow decline. Mortality remained steady among disabled persons but decreased among persons without disability, suggesting that increased life expectancy during the last two decades may be essentially driven by longer lives of functionally independent people.

Multidimensional Prognostic Index in Association with Future Mortality and Number of Hospital Days in a Population-Based Sample of Older Adults: Results of the EU Funded MPI_AGE Project.

BACKGROUND: The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) has been found to predict mortality in patients with a variety of clinical conditions. We aimed to assess the association of the MPI with future mortality and number of in-hospital days for the first time in a population-based cohort. METHODS: The study population consisted of 2472 persons, aged 66-99 years, from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen, Sweden, who underwent the baseline visit 2001-4, and were followed up >10 years for in-hospital days and >12 years for mortality. The MPI was a modified version of the original and aggregated seven domains (personal and instrumental activities of daily living, cognitive function, illness severity and comorbidity, number of medications, co-habitation status, and nutritional status). The MPI score was divided into risk groups: low, medium and high. Number of in-hospital days (within 1, 3 and 10 years) and mortality data were derived from official registries. All analyses were age-stratified (sexagenarians, septuagenarians, octogenarians, nonagenarians). RESULTS: During the follow-up 1331 persons (53.8%) died. Laplace regression models, suggested that median survival in medium risk groups varied by age from 2.2-3.6 years earlier than for those in the corresponding low risk groups (p = 0.002-p<0.001), and median survival in high risk groups varied by age from 3.8-9.0 years earlier than for corresponding low risk groups (p<0.001). For nonagenarians, the median age at death was 3.8 years earlier in the high risk group than for the low risk group (p<0.001). The mean number of in-hospital days increased significantly with higher MPI risk score within 1 and 3 years for people of each age group. CONCLUSION: For the first time, the effectiveness of MPI has been verified in a population-based cohort. Higher MPI risk scores associated with more days in hospital and with fewer years of survival, across a broad and stratified age range.

Age-related variation in health status after age 60.

BACKGROUND: Disability, functionality, and morbidity are often used to describe the health of the elderly. Although particularly important when planning health and social services, knowledge about their distribution and aggregation at different ages is limited. We aim to characterize the variation of health status in a 60+ old population using five indicators of health separately and in combination. METHODS: 3080 adults 60+ living in Sweden between 2001 and 2004 and participating at the SNAC-K population-based cohort study. Health indicators: number of chronic diseases, gait speed, Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), disability in instrumental-activities of daily living (I-ADL), and in personal-ADL (P-ADL). RESULTS: Probability of multimorbidity and probability of slow gait speed were already above 60% and 20% among sexagenarians. Median MMSE and median I-ADL showed good performance range until age 84; median P-ADL was close to zero up to age 90. Thirty% of sexagenarians and 11% of septuagenarians had no morbidity and no impairment, 92% and 80% of them had no disability. Twenty-eight% of octogenarians had multimorbidity but only 27% had some I-ADL disability. Among nonagenarians, 13% had severe disability and impaired functioning while 12% had multimorbidity and slow gait speed. CONCLUSIONS: Age 80-85 is a transitional period when major health changes take place. Until age 80, most people do not have functional impairment or disability, despite the presence of chronic disorders. Disability becomes common only after age 90. This implies an increasing need of medical care after age 70, whereas social care, including institutionalization, becomes a necessity only in nonagenarians.

Incidence and predictors of multimorbidity in the elderly: a population-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to calculate 3-year incidence of multimorbidity, defined as the development of two or more chronic diseases in a population of older people free from multimorbidity at baseline. Secondly, we aimed to identify predictors of incident multimorbidity amongst life-style related indicators, medical conditions and biomarkers. METHODS: Data were gathered from 418 participants in the first follow up of the Kungsholmen Project (Stockholm, Sweden, 1991-1993, 78+ years old) who were not affected by multimorbidity (149 had none disease and 269 one disease), including a social interview, a neuropsychological battery and a medical examination. RESULTS: After 3 years, 33.6% of participants who were without disease and 66.4% of those with one disease at baseline, developed multimorbidity: the incidence rate was 12.6 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 9.2-16.7) and 32.9 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 28.1-38.3), respectively. After adjustments, worse cognitive function (OR, 95% CI, for 1 point lower Mini-Mental State Examination: 1.22, 1.00-1.48) was associated with increased risk of multimorbidity among subjects with no disease at baseline. Higher age was the only predictor of multimorbidity in persons with one disease at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity has a high incidence at old age. Mental health-related symptoms are likely predictors of multimorbidity, suggesting a strong impact of mental disorders on the health of older people.

The benefits of staying active in old age: physical activity counteracts the negative influence of PICALM, BIN1, and CLU risk alleles on episodic memory functioning.

PICALM, BIN1, CLU, and APOE are top candidate genes for Alzheimer's disease, and they influence episodic memory performance in old age. Physical activity, however, has been shown to protect against age-related decline and counteract genetic influences on cognition. The aims of this study were to assess whether (a) a genetic risk constellation of PICALM, BIN1, and CLU polymorphisms influences cognitive performance in old age; and (b) if physical activity moderates this effect. Data from the SNAC-K population-based study were used, including 2,480 individuals (age range = 60 to 100 years) free of dementia at baseline and at 3- to 6-year follow-ups. Tasks assessing episodic memory, perceptual speed, knowledge, and verbal fluency were administered. Physical activity was measured using self-reports. Individuals who had engaged in frequent health- or fitness-enhancing activities within the past year were compared with those who were inactive. Genetic risk scores were computed based on an integration of risk alleles for PICALM (rs3851179 G allele, rs541458 T allele), BIN1 (rs744373 G allele), and CLU (rs11136000 T allele). High genetic risk was associated with reduced episodic memory performance, controlling for age, education, vascular risk factors, chronic diseases, activities of daily living, and APOE gene status. Critically, physical activity attenuated the effects of genetic risk on episodic memory. Our findings suggest that participants with high genetic risk who maintain a physically active lifestyle show selective benefits in episodic memory performance.

Is midlife occupational physical activity related to disability in old age? The SNAC-Kungsholmen study.

OBJECTIVES: Leisure-time physical activity (PA) has been established to be related to more years lived without disability. However, less is known about the relationship between occupational PA and disability in old age. The aim of the study was 1) to investigate whether midlife occupational PA is related to late-life disability, and 2) to test the hypothesis that the association differs according to the occupational categories of blue and white collar work. METHODS: The study population was derived from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care, and consisted of a random sample of 1804 subjects aged 72 and above. The association of occupational PA during the longest held occupation with disability in old age was determined using logistic regression. RESULTS: There was no significant relationship between occupational PA and disability in personal or instrumental activities of daily living (ADL) after controlling for demographic and health-related factors. However, in stratified analyses moderate levels of occupational PA was associated with a lower odds ratio of dependency in personal ADL amongst white collar workers, compared to low level of occupational PA (OR = 0.34 95% C1 0.12-0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Moderate levels of midlife occupational PA were associated with a decreased risk of personal ADL disability in old age among white collar workers, but not among blue collar workers. Our results highlight the importance of encouraging white collar workers to engage in physical activity during or outside work hours.